The only real stat that matters in daily fantasy is points. Millions of ways to try and predict it. We’ve tried a slew of things and nothing is foolproof. But some seem to be hitmakers more than others. At least, certain statistical metrics are currently sexy and people care about them. About a decade ago Percy Miller aka Master P choreographed an ensemble of durty down south rappers into a group called the 504 Boyz who pioneered New Orleans bounce music, too many loudasses with a microphone at once on stage and a song called Wobble Wobble. It was really popular. Now it’s really popular to listen to wOBA wOBA when it comes to DFS. Sheeeeit! I’ll agree it’s a good prediction tool, fool!
Yet another great prediction tool, El Stream-O-Nator is pimpin another Master P today. Masahiro Tanaka is the most extravagantly priced option as a pitcher at $11,300. The Indians do hit RHP in the top 15 percentile, but so do the Blue Jays and Athletics who he has shut down already this year. I’ve got Q’s about Bumgarner and Teheran today too so I’m not mindin those P’s. They’re still good options, but if I’m spendin, I want the Masa. As always, ensure you check the DFSBot to find today’s best values. If you don’t trust newfangled whatchamadiggers then listen up. Here are the rest of my DraftKings picks for the day.
Justin Verlander, P: $7,100 – K-Up’s man has been severely disappointing in 2014. If it continues at this pace, it could be setting up the most highly sought after season of The Bachelorette, which, thanks to my wetter half, is the inspirational background sound to each of my Draftkings posts that I write every Monday night. There’s not a man that I know that wouldn’t eat pieces of shit for breakfast every day to ensure he kept the blonde Cat Daddy near his bed every night if it was an option. Assuming you can still focus on my point here… He’s gonna bounce back hard. In fact, in his last 3 outings he’s gone 19 IP with 3 QS, a 3.31 ERA, and a 20/2 K/BB ratio and two of those opponents were Oakland and Cleveland who are top 5 against RHPs.
Chris Young, P: $6,500 – The less crunchy Young has spun a similar career arc to his hitting counterpart. He’s extremely yawnstipating in general. However, in certain situations he’s pretty sexy, like most long-legged Geminis. He’s at home (Safeco) where he owns an ERA of 2.19 compared to the road version which is 4.04. He compliments that with a HR/9 that is 2x better than his road number and K/9 nearly 2x as good as road numbers. In other words, he’s actually pretty Safeco. He also has 4 straight starts with 2 runs or less with 20 Ks in 25 IP.
Steve Tolleson, 2B/3B: $2,800 – From the soggy Young to Steve Tolleson?! Uggghhhhhhhhhh!!!! Na, nah, na, nah!!! Make sure he’s starting due to a little bump and grind he suffered a couple days ago. If he’s right, he’ll be in the lineup tho. His splits against LHPs (Skaggs) rep a .283 ISO and a .440 wOBA. How’s that for a crappy #1 hit?
Matt Adams, 1B: $3,900 – Moobs Jr. has been overcompensating for the fact that he wears a t-shirt in the pool since he came off the disgraceful list. He went yard again last night and owns a .413 wOBA against RHPs. He gets Van Swirley today. If there’s a shit show, Adams is looking likely to deal out an upper decker.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $4,500 – There’s writing, there’s funny and then there’s stats: facing RHPs = .466 wOBA. More stats: at home = .502 wOBA. Regardless of splits, amongst hitters with 200 PAs he ranks 3rd overall in wOBA. Don’t like wOBA? His OPS is 1.010 and his offensive WAR is 16.5. Dick around with that.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $4,400 – Bumgarner is tougher than most lefties on RHBs but nevertheless, Donaldson is pretty much the last guy any lefty wants to see. He’s got a .407 ISO and a .454 wOBA when facing the opposite hand.
Jose Bautista, OF: $5,000 – If it ain’t JD that’ll get you whiskey drunk then find his barrel aged brethren in JB. Unlike at bars, JB costs more, but similarly packs the same punch, if not more. Joey Bats boasts a .333 ISO and a .493 wOBA. He’s also 5-11 against Joe Smith for some late game magic…
Josh Hamilton, OF: $4,200 – Ok, let’s break the monotony… Some guys hit knuckleballs and some guys just… eh! I can’t finish that sentence. Josh Hamilton is 4-5 against Dickey and his knuckleballs. Toronto = Canadians + Moose + Knuckle + Balls = Jokes. Sound off Capozzi!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The Reds and Cubbies are scheduled to play a double feature, but with the forecast as it stands, it seems likely they’ll only squeeze in one of the two… if that. Plenty more moisture threatening today’s games. BAL, WAS, NYY, CLE, ATL, NYM, SDG, COL, PIT, STL all may see some precipitation as well.
Doing Lines in Vegas
Stackables – SD @ COL at 10.5, MIA @ ARZ at 9.5, CHW @ BOS at 9.5, HOU @ TEX at 10
Pitchers of Sharps – BAL @ WAS at 7.5 (Norris @ Fister) MIN @ SEA at 7.5 (Hughes @ Young) ATL @ NYM at 7 (Teheran @ DeGromm)