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When it comes to DFS play nothing can kick you off your throne quicker than a cold streak. And I hit one last week. Playing daily fantasy sports can be a fun, lucrative and an absolutely maddening endeavor. No other sport has as much variance on a nightly basis. I often wonder why I put myself through this athletic sadism. Ok, I know why. I like pain the competition, I like the cash and I love baseball. Over the past week, your humble-but-nonetheless-royal Guru has had plenty of competition, not so much cash and nowhere near the love I deserve as I went just 23 for 40. I may be no draft king, but the bankroll increased a bit and I’m inching closer to a winter of fun in the sun. The problem is I may have to pass on Cancun and head to Coney Island. Hopefully, I have a little left over for the bail bondsman. If you want to join me poolside just hit the DraftKings link and you’ll get a free ticket for a contest with your first-time deposit. The winner of that contest gets entry into our $500k Showcase with a $100k top prize – that’s a lot of banana daiquiris. Also, if you haven’t fired up the DFSBot yet, check it out. It’s a great tool for your bag of tricks that’ll give you an advantage over the competition. I used it Monday for some Tim Lincecum love that banked big for me. Believe me, I needed it.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve shared some of my strategies when playing DFS baseball. If you missed them you can give a look here, here, and here. This week, let’s talk a bit about managing the budget. On DraftKings you get 50K to spend on two pitchers and eight positions. I usually spend 18- 22K of that on pitching which doesn’t leave a lot of room for mistakes with hitters. One of the questions I get asked a lot is if it’s okay to leave money on the table when constructing a team. I say, unless you’re a seasoned DFS shark, it’s best to spend to the cap or real close to it. I never leave more than $500 on the board and there are three reasons for that: 1) No projections are 100% accurate. Sorry, DFSBot, you’re good but no one’s that good. 2) More often than not your “optimal lineup” will be wrong. Ha! I know this sounds negative, but play DFS awhile and you’ll realize that not spending that leftover $800 will hurt. I found this out on Monday when I didn’t spend up for pitching and went with Tyler Lyons – he gave me -11 points. Yes, negative 11! 3) Finding cheap players that produce is necessary to win, but players are in the bargain bin for reason. If you see a player that usually has a high price tag is suddenly cheap there’s probably a reason for it – he has a bad matchup, he’s unlikely to play or he’s hurt. I saw a lot of people grab Mark Teixeira on Monday because the price was right in a great matchup. Unfortunately, he ended up not playing which left some people with a big fat zero.

With all that said, we have just eight games on the evening slate, a number of aces on the mound and some weather to pay attention to in St. Louis and Cincinnati. Here’s your dirty turbaned Guru’s lineup for Wednesday’s 5/14 contests on DraftKings for 2014 Fantasy Baseball. Good luck, cheers.

Masahiro Tanaka, P: $11,900 – Tanaka is everything they said he’d be and has lived up to all the hype. He’s 5-0, averaging 8+ Ks and nearly 27 FPTS a game. Now watch him end up on Dr. James Andrews “Tommy John” slab of death.

Scott Feldman, P: $7,600 – Feldman shutout the Rangers on two hits in seven innings of work a couple weeks ago. Can he do it again? *shakes Magic 8-Ball* “Reply hazy, try again.” Uh-oh. I’ll be rolling out another team with Johnny Cueto and Michael Wacha, but it’ll be hard to find the bats.

Josmil Pinto, C: $2,700 – The Pinto has six hit and four runs over his last three games and faces the pitcher most likely to explode tonight in Felix Doubront.

Matt Adams, 1B: $3,400 – Fat Adams’ price has dropped below is daily Ding Dongs intake and while he’s hitting .300 he has just two homers. Bold prediction: He doubles that total tonight. You might even say he “double dongs.” *tips turban, tap dances out door*

Rougned Odor, 2B: $2,000 – Total punt play here, but the kid hit his first career homer this week and, as a Game of Thrones fan, I like to just yell “HODOR!”

Jeff Baker, 3B: $3,600 – I don’t have a lot of confidence in Dodgers starter Paul Maholm and expect a high scoring game on a warm night in LA. Baker has hit him at a .391 clip over his career. Just make sure he’s in the lineup.

Jhonny Peralta, SS: $4,000 – I’m not a big batter vs. pitcher guy unless the sample is big, but Peralta is 8 for 17 off Jason Hammel with two homers. I can’t ignore numbers like that when there’s no one else tickling my turban.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $5,700 – Giancarlo is playing in front of family in LA this week and really wants to make his la abuela proud. He’s also averaging a homer every 12.4 ABs – as of this writing he’s gone 14 without a bomb. How do you spell due? Oh, I just did. Thanks, SpellCheck.

Yasiel Puig, OF: $5,300 – This was supposed to be Jose Fernandez’s spot in the rotation and we could have had a Cuban showdown that would’ve rivaled the time Desi Arnez leg wrestled Fidel Castro in Little Havana. *Sigh* Guess Puig will just have to go long off the boring white guy.

Billy Hamilton, OF: $3,800 – B-Ham can help you in a lot of ways. He can walk, steal, then score and you got 12 first inning points right there. I put together a lineup just for the hell of it last night that was all speed guys – Hamilton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Everth Cabrera, Eric Young Jr. and Dee Gordon. How’d it do? I don’t know because I’m writing this yesterday. Weird.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

There be rain in Cincy and St. Louis tonight so keep an eye on the Doppler.

Doing Lines in Vegas

The sharks in Vegas have high overs for CLE/TOR, CHW/OAK and it should be a shootout in TEX/HOU. The MIA/LA game is off the board as of this writing, but on warm nights in Chavez Ravine the ball can really fly. I like me some runs in this one.

From Around The Web

  1. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I’m liking Victorino against Correia tonight, he’s hit him well in the past. Also gave Maybin a go in a couple lineups, the sample size is small (9 PA’s) but he’s had some success. Then again Cueto has been in beast mode all season so the past numbers could mean very little.

    I ended up spending over 20K on pitching in a ton of lineups tonight. I usually try and find a high end starter and a mid-tier or lower-tier option. Needless to say I have a lot of shares of Tanaka, Cueto, and Wacha.

    I’ll be watching baseball in between panic attacks from the Bruins game.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Victorino a very nice play today as is Carlos Gomes vs. Liriano (if you can fit him in.) The high end/value SP strategy is a good way to go. I had Price/Pomeranz in a couple contests yesterday that banked. Think we’ll have to pay up for SP tonight, though. I suggested Feldman as a low end option, but my confidence level is low. Good luck tonight.

      I’m with you, Ralph – Go B’s!

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @The Guru: Is Gomez going to play? He’s got lower back tightness not to be confused with Nina Agdal who has below the back tightness…..Hit me!

        • The Guru

          The Guru says:
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          They said nothing serious after he left last night. *crosses fingers, prays to Robin Yount bobblehead* Still waiting on lineups.

  2. Hawk says:
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    Sneaky play of the day:

    Rafael Montero vs. the Yankees.

    Yanks always seem to struggle against guys they’ve never seen before. Vegas has the game at 6 1/2. Montero had a 9 K / 9 in the hitter friendly PCL.

    Hard to predict him for a win against Tanaka but I could see Montero going 6+, 2 ER, 8+k

    For that price you can get guys like Puig, Bautista, Stanton etc…and enjoy!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Could be a good value play and worth a shot on a 50/50. He won’t get the win, but would leave room for bigger bats. I like the way your thinking.

      • Hawk says:
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        @The Guru:

        I don’t know that I’d play him in a 50/50. But in a GPP or some kind of big tourney where you need to be on someone everyone else isn’t? It’s worth a shot.

        My Fanduel lineup for tonight with Montero as SP:

        Edit Export eygreensc
        P Rafael Montero
        C Jason Castro
        1B David Ortiz
        2B Dustin Pedroia
        3B Pedro Alvarez
        SS Hanley Ramirez
        OF Yasiel Puig
        OF Andrew McCutchen
        OF Matt Kemp

        • The Guru

          The Guru says:
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          Good luck with Montero. It could work, it could blow up in our face Tyler Lyons-style.

          • Hawk says:
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            @The Guru:

            Had to make some last minute changes due to guys not being in lineup but Montero put up 6 points (didn’t K as many guys as I thought he might). The lineup put up 37.25 in Fanduel

  3. Endershadow says:
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    Hamels for choo a fair swap? Or should I try something like Hamels/Hosmer for choo/hamilton?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Choo side by far.

  4. costaricanchata says:
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    how’s melky doing , by you ?
    got him going today ??

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Kluber has pitched well this year, but his ERA jumps about 2 1/2 points on the road. Lefty Blue Jays are in play tonight. At Melky’s price I might prefer Ellsbury vs. a rookie or spend a little less and take Victorino.

      • J-MoneyIV says:
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        @The Guru: I take it you are fading Kluber tonight then? I feel the upside in Ks could be a good gamble, especially with the way he has been pitching lately. Plus Grey is in favor of starting him which gives me some confidence.

        • The Guru

          The Guru says:
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          I’d rather spend an extra $600 and take Wacha vs. the K prone Cubs. Kluber’s road ERA of 4.50 in a hitters park against some power hitting lefties on the Jays worries me.

          • J-MoneyIV says:
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            @The Guru: Makes sense. I just checked the weather for the cardinals game though and it looks like rain through the evening. Still like Wacha?

            • The Guru

              The Guru says:
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              Damn weather. I’m going to do a rain dance and hope they get the game in. I’ll have him on team, but I’ll be ready to pivot to Maholm and increase spending on a bat probably.

  5. Allan says:
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    Hey Guru question unrelated to daily. Richards, Smyly, Ross. Pick 2.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Hey Allan, it’s Smyly and Ross for me.

      • Allan says:
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        @The Guru: Thanks that’s who I’ve got right now.

  6. Sange76 says:
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    12 team head to head points keeper

    Asking around…
    Best bet to replace Jose Fernandez
    1. Trade Cano and Craig for scherzer/Felix and dozier.
    2. Trade Adam jones for Gerrit cole
    3. Keep the offense as is and grab josh Beckett, Marco Estrada or Danny Salazar off the wire.

    Offense is Mauer, votto , cano, headley, Reyes, Morneau, jones, pence, Craig, Alex Gordon, prado, bogaerts and Polanco stashed for next year.

    Staff is…was….Jose……Cain, Garrett Richards, Ian Kennedy, Masterson., Matt Harvey stashed as keeper next year.
    What would my best plan be?

    Thanks!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Play the wire. Becket has looked legit. Might look to trade Morneau while his value is high for an arm.

  7. J Boy says:
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    Guru, please rank these guys in roto ROS:

    (Sugar) L.Cain, Dunn, Pollock

    Thanks!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Dunn, Pollack, Cain.

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