Stepping aside from my DraftKings role here, I used to feel sorry for coach Porter. He’s dealing with all the fluff that won’t be in an Astros uniform by 2015 in his starting 9 minus Springer right now. He’s there to instill the day to day process and hustle into these kids. But you know what he’s not here to do? Stir stuff up. Yeah, yeah, you’re trying to show your team that you have heart by taking exception to Jed Lowrie‘s bunt in the first when you’re down 7-0 in the first inning last week. Well then don’t play the shift! Give up now, Bro Porter, or forever hold your beef. BTW, I don’t call people Bro unless I don’t like them, Porter. So now that we’re clear on that mess, Bro Porter had the audacity to send his reliever out to plunk Jed last night after he’d already gone 3/4 against his team while he was down 8-1. Now, I’m not a big believer in ‘revenge’ games but Oakland is just the better team right now, Bro Porter, and you’ve essentially kicked the hornet’s nest. What’s this all mean to you, you ask? Well, I’m hard-pressed to believe this mess puts a charge into the lethargic Astros and Jesse Chavez gets to mop up. I’m not gonna lie and tell you I’m a full season Chavez believer but what I do believe in is this: the Astros as a team strike out at a 4th worst 24.3% strikeout rate and Jesse averages over a strikeout per inning on this young season. When you add those numbers together, JC Super-Arm is due for at least 57.2 Ks today…give or take about 50. The reality is, he has zero weather issues and looks to be the safest arm to rely on for Friday given the weather concerns circling the East Coast. Even though the Stream-O-Nator is lukewarm on the idea, there’s some gold here and I’d take advantage if I can afford it. I’ll put it to you this way: the highest rated batter on Hitter-Tron for this tilt that plays for the Astros is George Springer and he’s batting .171 at the moment. If this were twitter, I’d say #yikes. But it’s not so I’ll move on and remind you that today – yes TODAY – is the Sweet Spot kickoff. We’ve been talking about it for forever and now you get to put your moola to work. I wish you the safest of journeys on your trek to financial glory. May the best man/woman/fantasy baseball vermin win. And with that, let’s get on with the pickins…
Homer Bailey, SP: $8,300 – Those season numbers…woof. Yeah, it’s not pretty right now. But they always say it’s darkest before dawn and before you pull your head out of your Cody Asche…or something. Whatever, Braves still strike out a lot with a capital ALOT as they lead the league in this category. Bailey could easily K 10 in 5 innings. The bigger question is will he give up 10 ERs along the way. Definitely not for the faint of heart but what else can you expect from a pitcher with the first name ‘Homer’? The price is right if you’re willing to take on a little risk.
Gerrit Cole, SP: $10,000 – I’m officially fading the young man. The Cardinals currently have the 8th lowest K% as a team and were 5th best in the stat last year. Take the hint, they don’t strike out much as a whole. Even if he pitches well, the numbers probably don’t match the price. Let someone else find this lump of Cole in their DK stocking for the day.
Robbie Ross, SP: $7,300 – Who you tryin’ to get crazy with, esse? Don’t you know I’m loco? I’m not a Ross promoter nor believer in regular fantasy baseball but I do know that the only Mariner who did damage when they won the last game is Kyle Seager who’s a lefty and the lineup still isn’t that scary. The K’s have been there, maybe the M’s give you that cute ‘roll over and die’ look they’ve been giving the last two weeks.
Josh Beckett, SP: $7,000 – The Stream-O-Nator is trying to sell Beckett on me. I’m very, very worried it’s looking at data from 2005. Though the K’s have been a nice surprise, he hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in a start so far and there’s no promise that the pitch count lifts enough to buy in here.
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: $4,000 – Consider this a micro of the macro. The ‘Tron likes Moss as a top 15 hitter. It likes Coco Crisp about the same. If you’re thinking Phat Stack, this is a good place to do it.
Jason Kubel, OF: $3,700 – Though I only tentatively suggest this one seeing as most of the numbers probably come from when Porcello was unstartable (whereas now he’s just above tolerable), I’d be loathe to leave you hanging about a guy who has a 1.085 OPS in 30 ABs against Rick.
Carlos Gomez, OF: $4,800 – Definitely not at a discount but the ‘Tron says it wants to be, and I quote ‘up in it like a spark plug to your spark gap’. I’m not a car person so I don’t know exactly what that means but let’s just assume it’s somewhere fairly uncomfortable (audio NSFW). On some levels, I want to suggest a Brewers stack here but on the other, the numbers suggest a bit of bad luck for Villanueva. That bad luck may or may not last but I can’t in good faith just let the dogs loose here without that fair bit of warning.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $3,400 – It’s been a rough start for anyone who’s owned this James Loney clone in regular fantasy but in 22 career ABs against Ubaldo, Eric has 2 HRs and a 1.098 OPS. Didn’t this guy go about 100 picks ahead of Brandon Belt in drafts? Ugh…
Jonny Gomes, OF: $3,700 – The epitome of what Llamas are, the big special thing going for Gomes are his career numbers vs Mark Buerhle. Over 28 ABs, Jonny has a .321/.394/.464 non-G’N’R Slash-line against Mark. Don’t just punt. Punt with purpose and panache, my friends.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
This lead title is a lie. I’m not happy. On a day the Sweet Spot is up and running, the guy/girl (you never know) up above is taking a heavenly whizz all over some good set ups. Both the game the NYYvsLAA and and the BALvsKC games are over the 50% chance of rain marker that make me run away screaming from them. All hope is lost…or not! Just stay tuned, maybe Collective Soul will save us. The bullpen-weary series between WASvsSD is also in worry of washout so keep your internet ears peeled, especially if you’re rolling with Strasburg. NYMvsMIA is yet another worry for washing away but let’s not pretend we care, m’kay? A good weather trend might be found in Dodgers stadium as the winds are blowing fairly hard out to right field as well as in San Fran. Well, good for hitters, not the pitchers of course.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The big line for the day comes to us from a little place in America called Arizona where the D-Bags battle the Phutilities. It sounds mean but if you read it in a Casey Kasem voice, it’s quite soothing. With Josh Collmenter battling Roberto Hernandez for ‘most forgotten formerly useful pitcher’ rights in a hitters park, there should be plenty of runs scored. I’m more inclined to roster fill from here than stack, personally, given both teams have struggled to start the year.
CHWvsTB at 9 could definitely turn into a bloodbath as Erik Johnson sports a 4.5 BB/9 ratio with a sub 7 K/9. Rays looking slightly stackable just like Erik looks rightly smackable.
NYYvsLAA at 9 sounds lovely if it’s not soaked by nature and my tears.
And as an aside, I won’t be here for next Friday’s post. Apparently my real job requires my presence at a conference and apparently I need to care because apparently they pay me money and apparently that’s important. Apparently. Anywho, will see you in a couple of weeks. Until then, I love you as much as the internet will let me and I’ll talk to you later.