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Stepping aside from my DraftKings role here, I used to feel sorry for coach Porter.  He’s dealing with all the fluff that won’t be in an Astros uniform by 2015 in his starting 9 minus Springer right now.  He’s there to instill the day to day process and hustle into these kids.  But you know what he’s not here to do?  Stir stuff up.  Yeah, yeah, you’re trying to show your team that you have heart by taking exception to Jed Lowrie‘s bunt in the first when you’re down 7-0 in the first inning last week.  Well then don’t play the shift!  Give up now, Bro Porter, or forever hold your beef.  BTW, I don’t call people Bro unless I don’t like them, Porter.  So now that we’re clear on that mess, Bro Porter had the audacity to send his reliever out to plunk Jed last night after he’d already gone 3/4 against his team while he was down 8-1.  Now, I’m not a big believer in ‘revenge’ games but Oakland is just the better team right now, Bro Porter, and you’ve essentially kicked the hornet’s nest.  What’s this all mean to you, you ask?  Well, I’m hard-pressed to believe this mess puts a charge into the lethargic Astros and Jesse Chavez gets to mop up.  I’m not gonna lie and tell you I’m a full season Chavez believer but what I do believe in is this: the Astros as a team strike out at a 4th worst 24.3% strikeout rate and Jesse averages over a strikeout per inning on this young season.  When you add those numbers together, JC Super-Arm is due for at least 57.2 Ks today…give or take about 50.  The reality is, he has zero weather issues and looks to be the safest arm to rely on for Friday given the weather concerns circling the East Coast.  Even though the Stream-O-Nator is lukewarm on the idea, there’s some gold here and I’d take advantage if I can afford it.  I’ll put it to you this way: the highest rated batter on Hitter-Tron for this tilt that plays for the Astros is George Springer and he’s batting .171 at the moment.  If this were twitter, I’d say #yikes.  But it’s not so I’ll move on and remind you that today – yes TODAY – is the Sweet Spot kickoff.  We’ve been talking about it for forever and now you get to put your moola to work.  I wish you the safest of journeys on your trek to financial glory.  May the best man/woman/fantasy baseball vermin win.  And with that, let’s get on with the pickins…

Homer Bailey, SP: $8,300 – Those season numbers…woof.  Yeah, it’s not pretty right now.  But they always say it’s darkest before dawn and before you pull your head out of your Cody Asche…or something.  Whatever, Braves still strike out a lot with a capital ALOT as they lead the league in this category.  Bailey could easily K 10 in 5 innings.  The bigger question is will he give up 10 ERs along the way.  Definitely not for the faint of heart but what else can you expect from a pitcher with the first name ‘Homer’?  The price is right if you’re willing to take on a little risk.

Gerrit Cole, SP: $10,000 – I’m officially fading the young man.  The Cardinals currently have the 8th lowest K% as a team and were 5th best in the stat last year.  Take the hint, they don’t strike out much as a whole. Even if he pitches well, the numbers probably don’t match the price.  Let someone else find this lump of Cole in their DK stocking for the day.

Robbie Ross, SP: $7,300 – Who you tryin’ to get crazy with, esse?  Don’t you know I’m loco?  I’m not a Ross promoter nor believer in regular fantasy baseball but I do know that the only Mariner who did damage when they won the last game is Kyle Seager who’s a lefty and the lineup still isn’t that scary.  The K’s have been there, maybe the M’s give you that cute ‘roll over and die’ look they’ve been giving the last two weeks.

Josh Beckett, SP: $7,000 – The Stream-O-Nator is trying to sell Beckett on me.  I’m very, very worried it’s looking at data from 2005.  Though the K’s have been a nice surprise, he hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in a start so far and there’s no promise that the pitch count lifts enough to buy in here.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: $4,000 – Consider this a micro of the macro.  The ‘Tron likes Moss as a top 15 hitter.  It likes Coco Crisp about the same.  If you’re thinking Phat Stack, this is a good place to do it.

Jason Kubel, OF: $3,700 – Though I only tentatively suggest this one seeing as most of the numbers probably come from when Porcello was unstartable (whereas now he’s just above tolerable), I’d be loathe to leave you hanging about a guy who has a 1.085 OPS in 30 ABs against Rick.

Carlos Gomez, OF: $4,800 – Definitely not at a discount but the ‘Tron says it wants to be, and I quote ‘up in it like a spark plug to your spark gap’.  I’m not a car person so I don’t know exactly what that means but let’s just assume it’s somewhere fairly uncomfortable (audio NSFW).  On some levels, I want to suggest a Brewers stack here but on the other, the numbers suggest a bit of bad luck for Villanueva.  That bad luck may or may not last but I can’t in good faith just let the dogs loose here without that fair bit of warning.

Eric Hosmer, 1B: $3,400 – It’s been a rough start for anyone who’s owned this James Loney clone in regular fantasy but in 22 career ABs against Ubaldo, Eric has 2 HRs and a 1.098 OPS.  Didn’t this guy go about 100 picks ahead of Brandon Belt in drafts?  Ugh…

Jonny Gomes, OF: $3,700 – The epitome of what Llamas are, the big special thing going for Gomes are his career numbers vs Mark Buerhle.  Over 28 ABs, Jonny has a .321/.394/.464 non-G’N’R Slash-line against Mark.  Don’t just punt.  Punt with purpose and panache, my friends.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

This lead title is a lie.  I’m not happy.  On a day the Sweet Spot is up and running, the guy/girl (you never know) up above is taking a heavenly whizz all over some good set ups.  Both the game the NYYvsLAA and and the BALvsKC games are over the 50% chance of rain marker that make me run away screaming from them.  All hope is lost…or not!  Just stay tuned, maybe Collective Soul will save us.  The bullpen-weary series between WASvsSD is also in worry of washout so keep your internet ears peeled, especially if you’re rolling with Strasburg.  NYMvsMIA is yet another worry for washing away but let’s not pretend we care, m’kay?  A good weather trend might be found in Dodgers stadium as the winds are blowing fairly hard out to right field as well as in San Fran.  Well, good for hitters, not the pitchers of course.

Doing Lines In Vegas

The big line for the day comes to us from a little place in America called Arizona where the D-Bags battle the Phutilities.  It sounds mean but if you read it in a Casey Kasem voice, it’s quite soothing.  With Josh Collmenter battling Roberto Hernandez for ‘most forgotten formerly useful pitcher’ rights in a hitters park, there should be plenty of runs scored.  I’m more inclined to roster fill from here than stack, personally, given both teams have struggled to start the year.

CHWvsTB at 9 could definitely turn into a bloodbath as Erik Johnson sports a 4.5 BB/9 ratio with a sub 7 K/9.  Rays looking slightly stackable just like Erik looks rightly smackable.

NYYvsLAA at 9 sounds lovely if it’s not soaked by nature and my tears.

And as an aside, I won’t be here for next Friday’s post.  Apparently my real job requires my presence at a conference and apparently I need to care because apparently they pay me money and apparently that’s important.  Apparently.  Anywho, will see you in a couple of weeks.  Until then, I love you as much as the internet will let me and I’ll talk to you later.

  1. CL says:
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    Sky:

    re: G. Cole tonight… I’m always on the fence this early in the season about benching my SPs. I pretty much a “start ‘em if I got ‘em” mentality early on. I had exactly the same thoughts about him against the Cards tonight… but I’m rolling him out there with Chavez.

    Do you get selective from the get-go? I’m projecting under in innings pitched.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’m not extremely selective in roto this early on but in H2H and Dailies, I’m sitting Cole. The matchup just doesn’t look good for getting what you’d want out of it.

      • CL says:
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        @Sky: This is a roto. Dynasty. You like Liriano tomorrow v. Cards?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @CL: All comes back to the K’s. Risk vs reward I don’t think is there for Liriano to give you much back from starting him

  2. Dickey Fister says:
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    Biggest impact in 2014 and best player to stash right now:
    – Meyer
    – Sydergaard
    – Baez
    – Taveras
    Most other prospects are off the board.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Dickey Fister: Baez has the biggest chance to impact 2014 IMHO.

  3. SMLV1 says:
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    Assuming Choo does not play tonight, who should I start in my Util spot tonight?

    Phillips @ATL facing Santana
    Springer vs OAK facing Chavez
    Simmons vs CIN facing Bailey

    H2H Standard league

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @SMLV1: Hrm, tough. Depending where the bat Andrelton (2nd vs the 7th or 8th they’ve been placing him at), I could see Simmons then Springer.

  4. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    It looks like Washington/ San Diego and Baltimore/ Florida based on the weather report will get rained out, this sucks because I was loving the price point on Rendon, Desmond, Dyson, and Chris Davis. Should I hold on those guys in my lineup and see what it looks like at 6;45 or should I play it safe and revise my strategy first? Don’t want to blow my Sweet spot lineup and my couple of enteries into the mini-sweet spot…..Also I love Garza tonight

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Create a backup lineup that leaves them out for now and keep your eyes peeled. That way all you have to do is import when the time comes.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Sky: What are your thoughts on Garza against the Cubs tonight?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Lukewarm on the idea. Cubs do strike out a lot but Garza’s K-rate hasn’t really been up there this year. Worried it would be a wasted start even if he turns in a solid ‘real’ fantasy line by comparison to others.

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Sky: He’s faced Atlanta, Philly, St. Louis, and Pitt so I’m looking for a safe bet for K’s, a W, and a low probability of getting blown up. He’s expensive so I can see the case for Chavez, I’m a little weary of Bailey this season and don’t know what to expect from Ventura. I think a case could be made for Archer and he certainly looked great last Saturday against the Yankees but the winds blowing out to left and The White Sox have their days.

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Ralph Lifshitz: oops got Garza’s price confused with Strasburg for some reason. 8,400 isn’t bad and Chavez is obviously more expensive. I have Chavez replacing Stras in my backup lineup might drop Garza for Strasburg if Washington ends up playing….

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                @Ralph Lifshitz: Yeah, just not a Garza guy. Just don’t think he’s the greatest buy at that price given I’d want Bailey over him.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              I guess you could put Garza in the semi-safe range. Just don’t see someone that does a lot of good for you in Dailies today. Bailey is worrisome to me as well but the peripherals say he’s better than the numbers suggest. Not the safest play at all but no guts, no glory right?

              White Sox are a dangerous offensive club in my eyes. I wouldn’t want to mess with it especially at home, personally. Plus it all comes back to the K’s. Archer’s numbers don’t scream he’s gonna punch out 10+ guys. Great real fantasy pitcher but I’m not really sold on him for Dailies if other options present themselves.

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Sky: Thanks for the insight, you may have swayed me away from Garza tonight, I’m still learning the dailies. I picked up DK two weeks ago and had a monster night last Saturday and was in play for first last night in the 6K $2 entry contest. Crawford didn’t do anything and sort of burned me.

                From a strategy standpoint is the most important thing to target with pitchers K’s? It seems smart to invest bigger dollars into pitching and try and find good matchups for hitters. That’s what I’ve come to believe in my limited experience.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Dailies are very site dependent. K’s are king at DraftKings. K itself is 2 points plus a third of an inning is .75 so if a guy Ks 10, he’s scoring you 27.5 points just from that alone. From there, ER is a negative 2 points and hits/walks negative 0.6. Obviously can’t have a terrible night and win but K’s are very important. To put it in perspective, Bailey’s night against Pittsburgh about a week ago was terrible BUT he still scored about 7 points because he K’d 9 in 5 IP (21.75 points) despite giving up 8 hits and 5 ER (negative 14.8). Again, not great numbers overall and didn’t really help his DFS owners but you get the point. K’s are very important for that reason.

  5. yellowman says:
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    Start one:
    H Bailey @ Braves
    J Chavez @ Astros
    J Mejia vs Marlins (tomorrow)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Chavez the safest option, IMHO.

  6. Leifer maddness says:
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    should i start ventura tonight vs balt?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Daily or regular? Daily I’m doing my best to avoid the rainout possible games. If not, I think Yordano is a reasonable but scary start in regular fantasy.

      • Leifer maddness says:
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        @Sky: regular, h2h cat, besides the rain , the o’s have been on fire recently.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          They were also pretty shut down by Hutchison last night (6 IP, 9 K, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 hits). They did their damage against Toronto’s bullpen. Like I said, it’s a scary start but he’s also able to throw it 100 MPH. Hard to sit that.

          • Leifer maddness says:
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            @Sky: agreed thanks sky

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              No worries

              • Leifer maddness says:
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                @Sky: also what are your thoughts on xander bogasrts and kris davis, they were both dropped i grabbed xander bc of the position elggy,. i lost trumbo. and all those hr but i was super low in opb

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  @Leifer maddness: If all those guys are out on waivers, play matchups. I like Xander for tonight since a lefty is on the mound. Neither have really been all that great this year so I can’t say either should stick on your roster unless they get hot.

  7. Kid n' Play says:
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    What do you think about Robbie Erlin starting tonight? He is facing Washington who has the 5th highest K rate in MLB right now. I kind of like that matchup.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Hrm, he doesn’t actually have the highest K rate in the MLB (8.83 K/9). Unless you’re meaning some other stat. It’s not a bad start but weather problems are the same for him as they are for Stras.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Kid n’ Play: and I just re-read what you said, apologies. Though the Nats are actually only 10th highest. Still, the weather concerns me, especially when talking starting pitchers.

  8. Craig says:
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    Would the player-rather ROS rankings be a good source to use in a late drat this weekend? May be a silly question, but please answer. Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Craig: Yeah, it’s reasonable. Can still look at the rankings overall and then go to the ROS rankings, though.

  9. Craig says:
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    …late Draft…damn iPad mini

  10. Leifer maddness says:
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    springer is killin me would it be a huge mistake to drop him for khris davis i need the power, not speed bc i own gorden n billy hamm, please help!!!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Leifer maddness: Khris hasn’t been doing that much better. I’d hold for now.

  11. Nico says:
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    Hey Sky! Sorry to drop a non-daily league comment in here, but I didn’t want to harass you on twitter! I own Segura and Alexei Ramirez, and I have a party interested in Segura. I’m looking to get a top tier pitcher with a deal. Do you think Tanaka is top tier now? His advanced metrics are showing wonderful things, aside from LOB%, which will drop. Am I giving up too much if I trade Segura?

    Also, in regards to Alexei, his batted ball numbers resemble 2008 when he blased 21 bombs, and still had good speed and average. Is that the guy we’re seeing now, or do you think he sorely regresses? This will have an impact on if I get rid of Segura or not!

    Thanks in advance!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Nico: How dare you ask me a fantasy question on a fantasy site. HOW. DARE. YOU.

      The Sox seem revived somehow this year as a team. Even Dayan is hitting with panache. I still think Segura gets back to form but if you really need pitching, Tanaka should provide plenty of K-juice and reasonable ratios the rest of the way. Top 25 pitcher with upside of top 10. Go for it.

  12. and1mcgee says:
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    Carlos Carrasco starting for the Tribe today, not Ubaldo Jimenez. I’m going with Moss because I don’t know Carrasco and Ubaldo isn’t pitching for Hosmer to hit BP off of…

    • and1mcgee says:
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      @and1mcgee: sorry, I got crossed on the schedules. Mixed up. Disregard!

  13. fausto says:
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    ***ATTN RAZZBALL BRASS***

    POSSIBLE NEW WORD ALERT for the razz-clopedia if you guys dig it..

    “Saivier” (n.) (s?i-vi?r, savior) def- A RP that is acquired via waivers/fa for saves because he is obviously outperforming the current closer and will or is likely to end up getting the CL job, May also be due to closers going on DL. Can help with SV short term or best case they take CL job ROS. ex (Frieri is terrible so I grabbed Smith as a saivier) or (Hey Grey, Janssen on DL should I grab Santos as a saivier?)

    Do what you want, edit, change whatever if you want it.
    Due to 2014 Closer-mageddon ive had to come up with a term to describe all of my RP.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @fausto: We’ll have to see if Grey/Rudy see this and have an opinion. I shall pass it along.

  14. The Guru

    The Guru says:
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    Do I dare to question the Stream-o-nator on Beckett?? I’ll play him on one team and if the Stream is right I’ll let it have its way with my toaster oven.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @The Guru: The 4 slot one? He’s gonna have a field day. What are we thinking Beckett to do for the night? 20′ish points? 25?

  15. Gene Parmesan says:
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    H2H 10-Team Keeper…Two questions:

    (1) Who would you rather have for the rest of the season at 2B, Matt Carpenter or Anthony Rendon?

    Choose your own adventure time…

    (2) Depending on your choice, which side would you rather have: David Price, Will Myers and either Carpenter/Rendon; or, Cano and Archer?

    Happy Friday!

    • Gene Parmesan says:
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      @Gene Parmesan: Also Sky, I should throw in the caveat that one side likes George Springer quite a bit and would be willing to throw Yoenis Cespedes to acquire him in the aforementioned deal? Game changer at all, or, hold considering it’s a keeper league and Springer has a small sample size? Thanks.

      • Gene Parmesan says:
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        @Gene Parmesan: Sorry for trying to be cryptic, but that’s what the Parmesan do! Essentially, it’s Cano, Archer, Springer and Butler (he would get cut); FOR Price, Carpenter, Myers and Cespedes

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I’d want the Price side and I’ll take Carpenter as I’m not sold on Rendon. I’d hold onto Springer. Thanks for decrypting!

          • Gene Parmesan says:
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            @Sky: Thanks Sky. Much appreciated.

  16. Mike says:
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    Hey Sky, nice to see you do baseball as well as football.

    Was offered this trade in my dynasty league. H2H 5×5 league. My Martin Perez for his Danny Salazar. Both have equal round value. What do you think? I like Salazar’s upside but Perez is pitching so well right now..

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Mike: ha cool, thanks Mike.

      Salazar is a mess but I just don’t see Perez’ K’s ever materializing. Given it’s a dynasty and you can view it as a ‘for the long haul’ move, I’d take Salazar there and hope he turns the corner sooner rather than later.

  17. DomMattingly says:
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    Do I start Leonys Martin or Todd Frazier tonight in the UT spot?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @DomMattingly: tough, I’ll say Leonys simply for the matchup being kinder.

  18. Andre says:
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    10 team H2H Keeper league….Trade D. Gordon, Pagan, Heyward, and Wily Peralta for Alex Gordon and Kemp? Do we believe in Heyward turning it around over Kemp in a crowded outfield? I’d be trading to a division rival but can’t help but feel this is a sell high for me

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I would want the Gordon side.

      • Andre says:
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        Which Gordon!? Dee or Alex lol

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Haha, oops! Dee side. Sorry about that.

  19. zaron says:
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    “taking exception to Jed Lowrie‘s bunt in the first when you’re down 7-0 in the first inning last week. Well then don’t play the shift!”
    For real.

    “The Stream-O-Nator is trying to sell Beckett on me.”
    “Even though the Stream-O-Nator is lukewarm on the idea, there’s some gold here and I’d take advantage if I can afford it.”
    SON did pretty well. Once every 4 weeks or so its better than Sky. Chavez was hurt more by poor fielding and throwing than his own pitching.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, I watched the Beckett start. It wasn’t that impressive. Lotta warning track flies but in the end, it’s the stats that count and SON was definitely on this one.

  20. Hawks Fan says:
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    Hey bud, planning on going to one of the first to seahawks games this year? It’d be awesome to meet up and drink a beer at half time and bs about our champions and fantasy.

    • Hawks Fan says:
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      @Hawks Fan:

      I’m in my pickle for next week with my 10 team h2h standard points quality start league.

      I was banking on Minor starting next week, but it looks in doubt and I need to drop a hitter for a streamer. I’m debating dropping Craig, Utley, or Arenado.
      My situation is this:

      2b Utley/Carpenter
      3b Arenado /(Carpenter(dual eligible)

      OF
      McCutchen
      Holliday
      Myers

      Allen Craig on the Bench

      The stream o nater likes

      Kennedy vs Arizona
      Peavy vs Oak
      And Tillman vs Pit

      What would you do?

      Thank you in advance

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I’d drop Craig since he’s not hitting.

        I’d go Kennedy there assuming that’s a home start.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Man, that would be awesome. I definitely can’t commit for sure but I love the idea. To your question, though…

Comments are closed.