One of the statistics that a lot of daily fantasy players look at is Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA for short. wOBA attempts to credit extra base hits and find the statistical balance between the values of all the possible ways to get on base. This number attempts to show the true value of a hitter, or pitcher, in its form.
Daily fantasy players look at wOBA but more specifically they look at what the wOBA is in terms of the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. Most players, as we know, will do better against the opposite handedness of pitcher. Examples are that Lefties hit Righties better and vice versa.
So to see who might have the best advantages for a given night, one would look at the combination of how the SP fares against the different handedness of pitchers and how the hitters fare against those pitchers.
For example, Wednesday’s games have a couple of LHP going and some of these guys can really hammer left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt, for example, will go against J.A. Happ, who is left-handed and is okay overall against right-handed hitters. Goldy, though, has a massive .479 wOBA against lefties. For context, Josh Donaldson, another known lefty hammer, has a .439 wOBA against lefties and the league average for wOBA overall is around .315.
So, even though Goldy’s price tag is high, you might want to make sure you find a way to get him in the lineup against lefties. The splits say so.
The same goes for SP. Keuchel gets the Rays who are tough on the road against LHP but Dallas has a remarkable .249 wOBA at home this season. LHP Adam Morgan, who we will call out a couple of times below, has a .358 wOBA against righties. For comparison, Keuchel, also left-handed, has a more reasonable .284 wOBA against righties.
So look around, find some winning matchups and win all the monies! Good luck!
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Dallas Keuchel, SP: $11,400 – Keuchel has been greatly consistent all year, only really tanking in 6% of his starts this season. Also, he’s only giving up .40 home runs per nine innings. He’s a heavy favorite (-170) in a 7.5 run game against the Rays, who are the only reason not to go all-in on Keuchel, but I’m taking the strong pitcher against the hitting trends from the Rays.
Jaime Garcia, SP: $10,300 – Another consistent cat, we touted Garcia last week and he came through and has a similar feel this week as well. He’s also a heavy favorite (-157) in a seven run game, but fields the Giants, who, like the Rays, have some hitting trends on their sides.
Russell Martin, C: $3,600 – Nice, solid catcher in a high run total game in Philly (nine run total) against a lefty in Adam Morgan. Martin has a .372 wOBA against lefties this season.
Nick Hundley, C: $3,400 – Low cost entry in Coors Field. There are a few names for the Rockies that are little low due to Stephen Strasburg taking the hill for the Nationals, but you shouldn’t be afraid to pick some of the lower cost Coors participants because even Vegas thinks the Rockies are good for almost four and half runs.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,400 – Adam Morgan is left-handed. Edwin Encarnacion has a solid wOBA against lefties and has been rolling over the last seven games and 30 days in general in the power metrics. Morgan is also a gas-can that gives up 1.5 home runs per nine innings.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $5,400 – Goldy is expensive, but if you find a way, he’s worth rostering. And I mean that in a way that it’s fun to roster someone with a .479 wOBA against lefties. J.A Happ is not a bad play, generally speaking, but he’ll not do well against Goldy. No, sir.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $3,100 – If you haven’t rostered Cesar Hernandez once this season, I really don’t know what to tell you. He’s fun, in the way that scoring double digit DK points is fun, like he’s done in eight of the last 15 games. He’s an 80% contact guy against an SP (Buehrle) who doesn’t miss a ton of bats. I love Cesar the Great already, but on a down day at 2B, he’s a good producer in a high run total game and that plus fun equals good time rock and roll.
D.J Lemahieu, 2B/3B: $3,800 – Of course, there’s always Coors if the 2B position boggles the mind. DJ is entrenched in the two-slot in a 10 run total and his price isn’t obscene so fire away.
Andres Blanco, 3B/SS: $2,000 – I am ready to holler ANDRES BLANCO today. Blanco is min rate but is sneaky good right now. His .394 wOBA vs. LHP and his power metrics have spiked up over the last seven days and over the past 30 days as well. ANDRES BLANCO!
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $5,900 – On the flip, there’s Donaldson. Slightly higher priced than Blanco, he’s pulling a .439 wOBA against lefties and, while he’s not red-hot right now, a visit from Dr. Adam Morgan, LHP, could be just the remedy for that. That price is insane, but if you have the dough, he’s got the right matchup.
Jung-ho Kang, SS/3B: $3,600 – Eh, if you aren’t playing Blanco at SS, then Kang is solid, assuming you can’t afford Troy Tulowitzki, who forecasts out similarly to Kang, but $800 more. Kang has solid splits against lefties, and LHP Robbie Ray, while surprisingly solid so far, might have problems keeping so many solid rightly bats at bay.
Jayson Werth, OF: $3,300 – Unreasonably low price for what a leadoff hitter (which is what Matt Williams has Werth doing right now) at Coors Field should be.
Mike Trout, OF: $4,600 – Look at the payrolls in this slate and you’ll find Mr. Trout 27th in price. This seems like a bargain to me. I’ll take it.
Adam Eaton, OF: $3,600 – I like Eaton against Weaver, who has struggled against lefties and Eaton is sporting a .372 wOBA against RHP this season.
Gerardo Parra, OF: $4,200 – Like Hernandez, I don’t know what I can help you with if you haven’t played Parra yet this season. He’s finally over 4K in pricing, but is still so solid that he’s worth playing even at this lofty height. Noah Syndergaard is a solid pitcher, for sure, but Parra has a .380 wOBA against RHP and has awesomeness on his side.
Clint Robinson, OF: $2,800 – Robinson’s splits are profound against LHP (.433 wOBA). So if Jorge De La Rosa is playing, and check to make sure, then Robinson is a fantastic low priced product to help gets the other bats in there.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals are the two most likely looking at significant rain as of this writing, with Cincinnati seeing the worst forecast of the two of them.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Rockies are in Denver, so the line is the usual 10 runs out there, so be advised. As you can see from the picks, we’ve targeted the Toronto/Philadelphia matchup and its nine run total. Cleveland @ Boston and Kansas City @ Cincinnati both have 8.5 run numbers. Both Jon Lester and Mark Buehrle have -190 numbers as the lead dogs in the Vegas Likes You odds tournament for the night slate.
