Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

I’ve tried it all gentlemen and lady (possibly +4).  We’ve looked at splits, BvP, wOBA, ISO, wRC+ and we’ve even tried the “due” argument.  While all of these predictive metrics are very useful and over the long haul ring true, each day is another exercise in randomness.  Truth is, 162 games creates plenty of room for chaos theory to rear its wonderfully asymmetrical head.  Daily fantasy doesn’t allow for the law of averages and regression to the mean to matter for one single isolated matchup.  As a gambling man, I like to try new things to see how things play out.  I’ve done my research and feel good about this lineup that is completely segregated by the DraftKings salary.  We’re moving the decimal point two places to the left today and removing the glorious zeroes from the end of salaries that we all covet.  I’m rolling out only prime numbers today i.e. $2,300 = 23 = prime number.  When you look at numbers this much, the unique ones start to stand out.  The DFS community can certainly relate to the primes:

Prime numbers… appear among the integers, seemingly at random, and yet not quite: there seems to be some order or pattern, just a little below the surface, just a little out of reach.

–Underwood Dudley

Don’t expect to win each day—that is out of reach.  But winning over the long haul is what we’re after.  Take a good look at the DFSBot which has recently been ruled the best DFS prediction tool by dailydraftwizard.com.  Rudy’s phenomenal tool, as Mrs. Gamble calls it, cranks out the day’s best value plays and even breaks it down to expected $ per point.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!

Max Scherzer, P: $12,700 – The Scherz comes in at numero tres on the Streamonator-o today but the primero hombre for Ks.  DraftKings loves some Ks.  In his history against the current Rays, Scherzer is rocking a 28.2% K rate.  And other than two starts from Michael Fiers, he’s been the best per game pitcher over the past 14 days and the best over the season, among today’s options.

Chris Archer, P: $8,900 – Besides the salary, Archer has been a primetime pitcher since the break.  He’s added up 27 Ks in only 19 August innings, meanwhile posting a 2.37 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.  Everybody is scared of putting in pitcher against the mighty Tigers lineup and that makes him a bit more attractive today knowing he’ll have low ownership numbers.  His BvPs against Detroit actually inspire some confidence with .208 BAA.

Travis D’Arnaud, C: $3,100 – He’s a boom or bust guy but catcher values have started to creep up as the season has progressed.  Damn you Cu-Jo for hitting 5 straight HRs!!!  Last time he faced Kazmir he banged out a 3 run job and Kaz hasn’t been quite right ever since that game.  I’ll take the right side of the platoon with pop.

Michael Morse, 1B/OF: 3,700 – It’s hard to find this much value at 1B.  Morse went ice cold for months right along with the entire Giants offense, but they’re starting to heat up a bit thanks to Morse absolutely raking over his past couple weeks.  He’s only been getting hotter in the last week with a 1.849 OPS over the past 7 and he gets a pooptastic lefty in Tsuyoshi Wada in Wrigley where home run hitters double their pleasure.  Morse has 8 HRs in 126 ABs against lefties and 10 of his 16 dongs on the road.

Tommy La Stella, 2B:  $2,900 – He’s got a nice .432 wOBA on the reverse split against LHP.  Liriano also has a reverse split thanks to his great changeup.  Liriano is much better against righties and La Stella should be able to put the ball in play on the regular against the irregular southpaw.

Conor Gillaspie, 3B: $3,700 – Gillaspie is rockin a .394 wOBA against righties so far this year and Chris Tillman has been pretty consistently mediocre.  A hitters park tilts this much more in the favor of Gillaspie at a really nice price.

Erick Aybar, SS: $4,100 – Aybar has been solid yet unspectacular this year.  He’s in the right lineup and part of the order to do some damage against a very stackable pitcher in Alan Webster today.  If you aren’t obsessing prime numbers, the Halos are a great stack.

Khris Davis, OF: $3,700 – We have well documented how Davis Khrushes lefties and he gets J.A. Happ today.  I love this stack and Davis is my dong of the day.

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF: $3,300 – Pearce is also a lefty killer with a .468 wOBA against em.  Along with Morse, these two create a phenomenal value smash to stack the cheddar.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

The summer of mud continues in Pittsburgh with a 50% chance.  The Lou might see some as well.  Teams affected: ATL, PIT, CIN, STL.

Doing Lines in Vegas

Stackables – LAA @ BOS 9, KC @ COL 9.5

Pitchers of Sharps – ARZ @ WAS at 7 (Anderson @ Strasburg), SD @ LAD at 7 (Kennedy @ Correia), DET @ TB at 7 (Scherzer @ Archer), NYM @ OAK at 7 (Gee @ Kazmir)

  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Would you start Baez over Dee or Dozier today? Thanks!

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: I would definitely start him over Dozier. Flash Jr. is a nice play today too since Petco doesn’t hurt him in any way and the Padres catchers don’t throw runners out that well. Because of DKs HR bonus I’d go Baez, but Gordon is a very strong play as well.

  2. Schlurricane

    Schlurricane says:
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    They’re in LA… whatever. Perfect weather, beaches, huge pitchers park, beautiful smog-induced sunsets

  3. BTXJ

    BTXJ says:
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    shhh the la stella play is too good to give away for free

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @BTXJ: Hahaha that’s what I was thinking.

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @BTXJ: and he’s benched today… I really wish managers played DFS!

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Schlurricane: Sometimes I think DraftKings is in cahoots with MLB on these prices. They know too much!

    • huggz says:
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      @BTXJ: Except that he’s not playing today. :(

  4. Clint says:
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    Hope these are good because I’ve got Mad Max, D’Arnaud, and KD in my roto league going tonight. If my Royals boys (Butler/Aoki) get going at Coors tonight too, could be an awesome night!

    • Clint says:
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      @Clint:

      Everybody did well EXCEPT Mad Max? Inconceivable!

  5. Schlurricane

    Schlurricane says:
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    Morneau is back in lineup and has killer numbers against James Shields and is in Coors!

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