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Before we jump into the cash-filled DraftKings pool, let your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru pull on your coat about something cool happening here that will change your life forever – Razzball Radio is ready to launch! Starting on Monday there will be daily fantasy talk with Nick, Grey, Rudy and all your fave Razzballin’ personalities. And Tehol. I sure hope my new turban arrives from Calcutta in time. Let the stalking begin!

As I said last week I’ll be letting you follow my DraftKings progress through the season as I try to build that bankroll to the point where I can spend a few of the winter months in Cancun. However, after my showing last week it may just be a couple days in Newark. Ouch. Over the last seven days I’ve been mired in a 20-for-60 slump including a loss to Tehol who spanked me good and seemed to enjoy it just a bit too much. I was able to rebound later in the week cashing in seven of my final eight contests, but ultimately ended up in the red for the week. On the season, the bankroll has doubled and it’s time to get back to the winning ways.

For those familiar with DFS play feel free to skip ahead to today’s lineup as I share some strategies for choosing hitters. My downfall last week was hitting. I stacked the wrong teams, terrible starters pitched gems against good lineups and I was convinced someone had a Guru voodoo doll. Despite the tough week, I will stick to my system for picking hitters as it has paid off well in the past. I’m not one to junk my entire philosophy on one bad stretch.  Here are the five things I look at when building a DFS lineup: 1) Pick on the day’s worst pitchers in the best hitters parks. 2) Check the Vegas o/u. Look for high scoring games. Vegas knows what they’re doing. Use them. 3) Forget batter vs. pitcher matchups if the sample is less than 100 AB’s. The sample size is just too small. 4) Check the lefty-righty splits. If I’m on the fence between two equal bats I’ll choose the bat with the better numbers against the splits, i.e. a right-handed bat vs. a left-handed pitcher or vice versa. 5) Embrace the wOBA. What the hell is that, Guru? The new Star Wars villain? Well, my sabermetricly challenged friend in the Yoda mask, “wOBA” is weighted on-base average and is the stat I look at the most when deciding on hitters. I won’t get into the science of the power of the wOBA, but know that it’s a stat that can accurately predict a hitters value. The DFS sharks love their wOBA, but don’t like to tell.

Alrighty my Razzballers, here’s your dirty turbaned Guru’s lineup for Wednesday’s 4/30 contests on DraftKings for 2014 Fantasy Baseball. Remember to check the lineups and the Doppler radar. Don’t get left with a big fat zero if it starts raining frogs in Boston. Good luck.

Max Scherzer, P: $12,300 – Scherzer is the top play on the board and has struck out 44 batters in his first five starts. The White Sox lead the league in strikeouts. Do the math. The Tigers play early and if you need a late game ace you can’t go wrong with Zack Greinke who was rained out last night.

Shelby Miller, P: $7,800: Tony Cingrani would make another nice play, but is a little too pricey if we go with Scherzer or Greinke. Miller is underpriced and limited the Brewers to three hits two weeks ago and that was before Ryan Braun hurt himself breaking Jean Segura’s face.

Jose Molina, C: $1,800: There’s nothing sexy at catcher today so the lost Molina brother makes the perfect punt play against the lefty Doubront.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $3,600: This price won’t last as it’s only a matter of time before Encarnacion starts raking. E5 hit a homer every 14.7 at-bats a year ago (third in the league) and has gone 16 AB without a homer. Yup, it’s math.

Matt Carpenter, 2B: $3,700: DraftKings doesn’t like the Cardinals bats against Matt Garza. Not sure why as the Cards have hit .325 against him and Vegas likes the birds in this one. Neil Walker of the Pirates could be another value play, but the rain in Baltimore will be a problem.

Miguel Cabrera, 3B: $5,700: We are all waiting for that game where Miggy goes mad and hits a couple homers, drives in six or seven runs then celebrates with a BAC of 4.9. If he does it tonight we won’t mind the high price. Cabrera is the Hitter-Tron fave tonight as he faces a guy named Noesi that was fired by the Rangers a week ago. Good luck, kid. Cheaper options include Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre.

Chris Owings, SS: $2,400: Owings is a safe punt play in 50/50’s and is averaging 5 FPTS a game. If Troy Tulowitzki were playing at Coors I’d take him over Miggy. However, I’ve made my choice on which expensive bat to go with tonight. *crosses fingers, lights candle, prays to Steve Balboni bobblehead*

Jose Bautista, OF: $5,200: Joey Bats is the Hitter-Trons second favorite player to go yard tonight. That robot wouldn’t steer us wrong, right? Oh, sorry, ‘Tron, didn’t mean to go all Donald Sterling there. I meant “Electronic-American.”

Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $4,400: It’s been an up and down season for Cargo thus far. Let’s hope for the “up side” tonight as he faces off against the D-Backs Josh Colostomy Bag.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $3,200: Cespedes is just getting back in the swing of things after missing a week with a hamstring tweak…or was it twerk? Either way it’s too hard to pass on this price against a left-hander.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Stay in touch with your favorite local weatherman Story Sumthin’ as we have rain in the forecast for TB@BOS, DET@CHI, PIT@MIN, SEA@NYY, NYM@PHI, LAD@MIN. I’m building an ark.

Doing Lines in Vegas

COL@ARI, O/U 9 – The Rockies and D-Backs have been bashing each other’s brains out the last two nights and both make for solid stacks.

TB@BOS, O/U 8 ½ – The Sox and Rays usually have a high scoring game at the Fens, but the weather is a concern.If they are able to get the game started on time there may still be delays turning this into a bullpen battle.

  1. Ron says:
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    Are there two MIN teams? You have PIT and LAD playing them today.

    Or perhaps its a combined PIT/LAD squad against MIN…that would be interesting.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      The Pirates plays the Orioles. My bad. Either way the rain will be a problem. I like the combined squad idea, though! Good catch, thanks.

  2. Joe G says:
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    Gurú who you like jordan zimmerman or andrew cashner?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      I prefer Zimmy.

  3. fausto says:
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    Nothing to do with draftkings just looking for 2nd opinion. My edwin for his craig/kemp? Would leave me with rizzo/alvarez/middlebrooks/morneau at corners./util.. ..also my morneau for his dozier? Im rolling phillips out at 2b everyday..I like doziers 20/20 potential. .. Thanks.(.I may need to take a razz break feel all sleazy-like im cheating on grey…. weird)…

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      We’re all one big happy family. I could see doing both those deals.

  4. John E. Depth says:
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    Stack the Nats against Oberholzer and the Asstros…Rendon, Desmond, Werth all fairly cheap

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Yes, I agree with a stack of Nats being a nice 50/50 play today.

  5. Birdmann says:
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    Drop A Escobar for a flyer on B. Miller or is he fodder? Already have Dee and the Jerk manning the middle strictly a bench bat, Yahoo format no MI slot. I have room or hold?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Sure, give it a shot if you have the room. Miller might turn things around.

      • Birdmann says:
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        @The Guru: Jack said the same. I punted SS in my draft and ended up with Dee post draft, I like that Miller has 2B/SS would allow me to mix and match a lot more. I think I will do it, wish me luck!

        • Birdmann says:
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          @Birdmann: great write up on the Daily stuff going to give it a try this summer when I am off.

          • The Guru

            The Guru says:
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            Thanks, Bird. The daily stuff is a lot of fun and you can play for as little as .25 cents with Draft Kings.

  6. elipitt says:
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    Damn you, Shelby Miller…

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Between Miller and the rain it’s shaping up to be a bad day all around. Start drinking early!

  7. Allan says:
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    Hittertron likes bautista and encarnacion but it has them going against chen not ventura. Change anything?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      For DFS play I’d rank them a little lower. Votto, Goldy, Trout, Werth, Cargo may be better options tonight. E5′s price is pretty cheap on DraftKings and I have him on a couple rosters so I can afford Trout or Tulo.

  8. Ryan says:
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    Hey, I enjoy reading these articles even I don’t play in draftkings yet..I’m just curious which type of enteries you would suggest for someone new to dk who is mainly familiar with h2h weekly matchups

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      There are a number of free games available to play which can help you get familiar. I would suggest playing $1 50/50 games with over 100 players. The top 50 double there money. It’s also fun to play H2H games against friends for a few bucks and you are able to set those up on DraftKings. Good luck. You have found a new addiction.

      • Ryan says:
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        @The Guru: Thanks guru I’m gonna give it a shot. Hopefully you don’t take all my money.

  9. IFartInYourGeneralDirection says:
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    Dang-a-lang-a-ding-dong! I dropped Zim and Eovaldi from 2 lineups for Miller.

    i don’t want to make things weird, but I can’t read your Wed DK posts for a while…

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Such is life in the DFS world. The Stream-o-Nator liked him as well.

  10. Trickey Dickey says:
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    Long time reader, first time comment poster….Just accepted a deal and curious as to what you think:
    I sent Rendon, romo, and Bourn
    He sent me Cano, Jim Johnson, gardner, and Dickey

    leaves me to having no legit closer, but figured I can pick them up throughout the season…

    12 team standard mixed roto league

    Thoughts?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      You got the best player in the deal in Cano who was prob his 1st round pick. Nice trade and JJ will get that closers job back before the All Star break I predict.

  11. and1mcgee says:
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    Rendon was awesome yesterday! Dude killed me with Howie Kendrick … Greinke was great for me. Shelby Miller was ehhhhhhh. Would have been better off with Jesse Chavez or Eovaldi, to be honest. More than better off. That’s why they play the games, I guess!

  12. costaricanchata says:
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    @ Guru :

    thanks for sharing your thoughts/strategy
    for line-up composition .
    insightful .

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Thanks, Costa. I try to offer some stuff I’ve learned for folks that might be just starting DFS play. Anyone who says they’re an expert at daily fantasy would be lying. Ha! The variance day-to-day is tough. But, there are some general things to look at, that over the long haul, will keep you in the cash. Good luck.

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