Before we jump into the cash-filled DraftKings pool, let your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru pull on your coat about something cool happening here that will change your life forever – Razzball Radio is ready to launch! Starting on Monday there will be daily fantasy talk with Nick, Grey, Rudy and all your fave Razzballin’ personalities. And Tehol. I sure hope my new turban arrives from Calcutta in time. Let the stalking begin!
As I said last week I’ll be letting you follow my DraftKings progress through the season as I try to build that bankroll to the point where I can spend a few of the winter months in Cancun. However, after my showing last week it may just be a couple days in Newark. Ouch. Over the last seven days I’ve been mired in a 20-for-60 slump including a loss to Tehol who spanked me good and seemed to enjoy it just a bit too much. I was able to rebound later in the week cashing in seven of my final eight contests, but ultimately ended up in the red for the week. On the season, the bankroll has doubled and it’s time to get back to the winning ways.
For those familiar with DFS play feel free to skip ahead to today’s lineup as I share some strategies for choosing hitters. My downfall last week was hitting. I stacked the wrong teams, terrible starters pitched gems against good lineups and I was convinced someone had a Guru voodoo doll. Despite the tough week, I will stick to my system for picking hitters as it has paid off well in the past. I’m not one to junk my entire philosophy on one bad stretch. Here are the five things I look at when building a DFS lineup: 1) Pick on the day’s worst pitchers in the best hitters parks. 2) Check the Vegas o/u. Look for high scoring games. Vegas knows what they’re doing. Use them. 3) Forget batter vs. pitcher matchups if the sample is less than 100 AB’s. The sample size is just too small. 4) Check the lefty-righty splits. If I’m on the fence between two equal bats I’ll choose the bat with the better numbers against the splits, i.e. a right-handed bat vs. a left-handed pitcher or vice versa. 5) Embrace the wOBA. What the hell is that, Guru? The new Star Wars villain? Well, my sabermetricly challenged friend in the Yoda mask, “wOBA” is weighted on-base average and is the stat I look at the most when deciding on hitters. I won’t get into the science of the power of the wOBA, but know that it’s a stat that can accurately predict a hitters value. The DFS sharks love their wOBA, but don’t like to tell.
Alrighty my Razzballers, here’s your dirty turbaned Guru’s lineup for Wednesday’s 4/30 contests on DraftKings for 2014 Fantasy Baseball. Remember to check the lineups and the Doppler radar. Don’t get left with a big fat zero if it starts raining frogs in Boston. Good luck.
Max Scherzer, P: $12,300 – Scherzer is the top play on the board and has struck out 44 batters in his first five starts. The White Sox lead the league in strikeouts. Do the math. The Tigers play early and if you need a late game ace you can’t go wrong with Zack Greinke who was rained out last night.
Shelby Miller, P: $7,800: Tony Cingrani would make another nice play, but is a little too pricey if we go with Scherzer or Greinke. Miller is underpriced and limited the Brewers to three hits two weeks ago and that was before Ryan Braun hurt himself breaking Jean Segura’s face.
Jose Molina, C: $1,800: There’s nothing sexy at catcher today so the lost Molina brother makes the perfect punt play against the lefty Doubront.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $3,600: This price won’t last as it’s only a matter of time before Encarnacion starts raking. E5 hit a homer every 14.7 at-bats a year ago (third in the league) and has gone 16 AB without a homer. Yup, it’s math.
Matt Carpenter, 2B: $3,700: DraftKings doesn’t like the Cardinals bats against Matt Garza. Not sure why as the Cards have hit .325 against him and Vegas likes the birds in this one. Neil Walker of the Pirates could be another value play, but the rain in Baltimore will be a problem.
Miguel Cabrera, 3B: $5,700: We are all waiting for that game where Miggy goes mad and hits a couple homers, drives in six or seven runs then celebrates with a BAC of 4.9. If he does it tonight we won’t mind the high price. Cabrera is the Hitter-Tron fave tonight as he faces a guy named Noesi that was fired by the Rangers a week ago. Good luck, kid. Cheaper options include Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre.
Chris Owings, SS: $2,400: Owings is a safe punt play in 50/50’s and is averaging 5 FPTS a game. If Troy Tulowitzki were playing at Coors I’d take him over Miggy. However, I’ve made my choice on which expensive bat to go with tonight. *crosses fingers, lights candle, prays to Steve Balboni bobblehead*
Jose Bautista, OF: $5,200: Joey Bats is the Hitter-Trons second favorite player to go yard tonight. That robot wouldn’t steer us wrong, right? Oh, sorry, ‘Tron, didn’t mean to go all Donald Sterling there. I meant “Electronic-American.”
Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $4,400: It’s been an up and down season for Cargo thus far. Let’s hope for the “up side” tonight as he faces off against the D-Backs Josh Colostomy Bag.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $3,200: Cespedes is just getting back in the swing of things after missing a week with a hamstring tweak…or was it twerk? Either way it’s too hard to pass on this price against a left-hander.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Stay in touch with your favorite local weatherman Story Sumthin’ as we have rain in the forecast for TB@BOS, DET@CHI, PIT@MIN, SEA@NYY, NYM@PHI, LAD@MIN. I’m building an ark.
Doing Lines in Vegas
COL@ARI, O/U 9 – The Rockies and D-Backs have been bashing each other’s brains out the last two nights and both make for solid stacks.
TB@BOS, O/U 8 ½ – The Sox and Rays usually have a high scoring game at the Fens, but the weather is a concern.If they are able to get the game started on time there may still be delays turning this into a bullpen battle.