There was a strange time in history that some may not be aware of. It was a time when Fergie wasn’t a household name and giving her fans dreams of golden showers. It was a time they were all about having a live backing band instead of sampled beats. It was a time when they were earning critical acclaim for what I’ll biasedly – which IS a word, autocorrect; check yo’self! – say was good music. Well, at least in comparison to what everyone thinks of them as now. And then things changed. Is it irony or coincidence they became a household name with a song titled ‘Let’s Get Retarded’? I don’t know, Alanis has effed me up forever on that word. I’ll hand it off to you, dear reader, to discern for me that debate. But back to what we came to talk about…wait, all we’ve talked about is Black Eyed Peas. Hrm…que awkward segue! Well, maybe Erik Bedard has a similar career arc. Drift back with me to 2005-2006 and you had what seemed like an ace in the making. Then 2007 happened and he dropped a beautiful endline: 182 IP, 3.16 ERA, 10.93 K/9 and move to a pitcher friendly park in Safeco as 2008 destination. Everything was pointing up for Bedard’s career. And then injuries and ineptitude hit. The most innings he’s pitched in a season since 2007 is 151 with the Astros last year and I wouldn’t call many of them successful. Fast forward to the now and his season stat line still looks like a mess but there’s some underlying hope for him being useful as he turned in a 3.00 ERA in May. Given the right matchup, you could dare say Erik will having you wanting to Pump It (LOUDER!) and I’ll say the Mariners are just that. The Mariners sport the 5th worst team wOBA against left handed pitching on the year which should be no surprise considering like 90% of the lineup is left-handed. Given he’s the 5th cheapest pitcher on DraftKings today at $6,100, buying in will give you plenty of room to roster an ace like Yu Darvish without breaking your bat bank. And before you say ‘bish u cray’ about this call, the DFSBot is on board, calling him the 10th best pitcher to go today and the 3rd best money differential play with a positive value of 2412 over his going price. But enough about getting Bedard’ed, let’s move on. Here are some more Razzball picks for June 6th…oops, before I go just wanted to let you know I’ll be driving myself to the oblivion that is a family reunion on the Mrs. side so J-FOH has lovingly said he’ll caddy the questions for today. Be nice to him. I don’t wanna come back to find out you were all terrors in the comments section. Now moving on…
Tyson Ross, SP: $9,100 – No surprise here but Ross’ DK ppg is higher at home (21.9) vs on the road (12.4) for the year. Not hip on Bedard and can’t afford Darvish or Cueto? Try shopping at Ross Pitch For Less.
Dallas Kuechel, SP: $9,900 – He’s a little pricey and gets what I’d deem a dicey matchup with a lineup now featuring Willingham and Arcia (if he plays). That said, he’s a GB specialist and isn’t homer prone in a pitcher’s park. He and his opponent Phil Hughes at $10,100 might be under owned on a day with Darvish on the mound so I have some interest if I have the cash left to buy in. Just keep in the back of your mind that both teams have offensively improved and these plays might be more risk than you need to take on given the prices.
Trevor Bauer, SP: $8,000 – It’s funny to say it but it’s true: you know what you have here. Which is to say, you don’t know what you’re going to get here. Will he strike out 10 in 5 IP or walk 10 in that same timeframe? It’s in Texas so he could get shelled or he could turn in a top 5 SP performance. The good news is the wind is blowing in a bit as of this typing so there might be a Bauer outage for Rangers bats on the way.
Jered Weaver, SP: $8,500 – I’m simply pointing him out because he’s a bit overlooked at the moment and I could see him being under-owned because of all the other flashy names going around. As much as Jose Abreu scares me – and he does, I totally just Fergie’d in my pants thinking about him – the Chi-Sox are still bottom ten as a team for K% and a 7 IP, 6-8 K performance by the Dream Weaver wouldn’t surprise me.
Marcus Stroman, SP: $6,000 – Don’t like my Bedard call, I see. Well how about the Cardinals being a mess offensively? We have a $6K price on a guy who could turn in a 10 K performance. I say that even though logically he can’t and won’t given the Cards don’t strike out much. That’s my Stroman argument.
Dioner Navarro, C: $3,000 – Navarro has been rocking a hot axe…er, bat of late, averaging 7.1 DK points per game over his last 10 and gets to play at home where he actually has the same DK ppg average. He won’t bat high in the order but Toronto could get everyone five to six PA on the day, making him a reasonable risk/reward given his price tag.
Derek Norris, C: $3,400 – He’s cooled off dramatically since the start of the year so he’s not a guarantee to take advantage of a lefty on the mound but you could be getting Colorado stats at a Padre price. Sorry, JayWrong, I know it hurts. But I’m a Mariners fan. Let us weep together when we’re on the Road for the Razzball Tour this fall for #32in32in32. And drink. Like a lot.
Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF: $2,700 – I’d never punt first…unless it’s with panache. Go look back over his 10 game log on DK. Any time you see ABs greater than or equal to 3, that’s when he faced a LHP. You guessed it, Sherlock, he gets a lefty today and gets to play in a hitters park. Plus it’s always fun to use Rudy‘s illegitimate avatar son in any lineup.
Adam Jones, OF: $4,300 – While Nelson Cruz’ price is flying high at $5,500, Jones’ is still fairly low as his bat has heated up. They’re both lefty mashers and get one at home today. Oh and if you’re curious I am, what are you wearing right now? Um, not that kind of curious. The curious about his splits. He’s hitting .456 on the year vs lefties with 4 HRs. I’m basically telling you he could have 2 HRs before the 5th inning. If he’s not in your lineup today, you might have to let your bookies goons wear the metal brass knuckles this time is what I’m saying. Yes, everyone might play him but this is literally one of those times you need to be keeping up with the Joneses.
Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B: $4,000 – He’s priced just about right to squeeze into most lineups and gets a scuffling lefty in Drew Smyly on the mound and – much like Adam above – has feasted on lefties to date. Consider this a semi-suggestion for Dustin Pedroia too considering his price is relatively lower than it usually is at $4,400 but given his numbers on this year, it’s not a ringing endorsement.
J.J. Hardy, SS: $3,300 – He has zero HRs on the year so at this point you just write off the idea of getting one. That doesn’t mean he can’t hit 2 doubles and drive in 2. For you non-DK math majors, that’s 14 points and yes, that’s the same as hitting a solo bomb in this silly little game we play.
Brandon Crawford, SS: $3,400 – B-Craw – that’s what I call him. Not to his face, though. I’ve never met him and we’re not friends – has some crazy reverse splits on the year with 3 of his 7 HRs coming against LHP this year and is hitting .435 at home vs said southpaws on the year. He’s bomb or bust fodder but at least there’s a statistical edge towards the bomb side. That way you can say when he goes 0/4 that you had a good reason while everyone laughs at you.
Danny Santana, OF/SS: $2,700 – More punting with panache. Danny has three 10 point games in his last 10 played and has been leading off for the Twins of late which used to be like saying he’s the tallest midget but actually has some merit nowadays. Much like a eunuch driving a drag racer, he’s all speed and no chance for a dong but he could still turn in plenty of points for his price.
Alex Gordon, OF: $4,300 – Over his last 10 games, Alex has 3 HRs, and a 1.203 OPS. That’s good. He’s still a Royal, though. That’s bad. Lorde thanks the lord every day that’s not something she’ll ever be.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $4,400 – There are a lot of reasonably priced options in the OF seemingly every day but today seems so much more fruitful. Cespedes already has a 2 HR game under his belt. If you need another good reason, pretend I copied and pasted what I’ve said about Blanks and Norris here. Yes, OAK stacks are not a bad idea.
Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B: $3,500 – He’s finally 2B eligible! He’s 12/39 with 2 HRs in that stint, both of them hit in Detroit’s pitcher-friendly park. Um, if ya can’t tell, yes: a Toronto stack is a good idea.
Todd Frazier, 1B/3B: $4,000 – On a night where he might be underowned because the o/u for the game is low with two aces on the mound, let’s not forget a few things. One, Todd has 4 HRs and a .347 ISO against LHP this year and gets one on the mound and two, he has a .360 at home for the year and yes, he’s in Cincy tonight. If he doesn’t hit one out tonight, I’ll eat five bowls of Skyline Chili as punishment.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Oh you wanted to do a COLvsARI stack? Well mother nature is currently giving you the middle finger and farting in your general direction if you think thunder can be middle digits and farts can be rain clouds. There’s a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms scheduled for most of the night in Colorado tonight so if you’re looking for that Rocky Mountain High, you might just need to stay home and toke up…but only if you’re in Denver where it’s legal and if you’re of age! We don’t condone the use of illegal drugs…except where it’s legal of course.
Doing Lines In Vegas
BALvsOAK o/u 9 – I could see this one tilting to the over with two lefties on the mound and both having mashers who have killed southpaws on the year. If Colorado gets washed out, here’s your consolation prize.
TORvsSTL o/u 9.5 – Lance Lynn has had odd home/road splits for DK ppg so far this year, averaging about eight points more on the road than at home. Methinks a game in Toronto will change that dramatically. I will have six B-Jays this Friday, something the future Mayor of Toronto would totally make sure would happen if she were elected. Maybe we should change our name to Brazzball to show our support?
TBvsSEA o/u 7.5 – The Tampa Bay bats have been heating up a bit of late and Chris Young still hasn’t had the regression fairy fly in through his bedroom window at night and shart on his ratios just yet. Today could be the day. I could see the over here with a majority of the heavy lumber coming from the Rays side.