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Happy July, Razzaholics. Summer is here so let’s plop ourselves down in the kiddie pool with a pitcher of Margaritas and a couple of hotties and make some cash at DraftKings tonight. Have you been partaking in the DraftKings fun? Why not, don’t like money?! Get out of here, hippie! Your friendly Razztenders even provide you with some of the best juice in the biz: Stream-o-NatorHitter-Tron and the tasty DFSbot

Before we get to today’s plays, let’s talk some strategy. When I’m constructing a roster there are a lot of stats and stuff (that’s a technical fantasy baseball term they teach up at the Mathew Berry Fantasy College for the Criminally Insane) that I look at including home run percentage (HR%), strikeout percentage (K%), walk percentage (BB%), lefty/righty splits, line drive, groundball, fly ball percentage, on-base plus slugging (OPS), weighted-on-base average (wOBA) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). I also check ballpark factors, the weather, injury reports, Vegas lines and, of course, the lineups. That may seem like a lot to research, but when you got Benjamins on the line you want every advantage you can get. Lastly, I look at batter vs. pitcher matchups. There is much debate in our fake ballin’ world on the validity of using BvP. Some experts use it, others say it’s complete rubbish. I won’t drop any judgement on either, but I will say I check BvP. Daily. And it has won me cash and it has left me weeping in my brewski.

With all the said, let’s get to the plays of the day. We do have a split slate today with eight games this afternoon and seven tonight. I’ll offer up some players that have the best BvP numbers and you can decide if that’s how you want to roll.

Early Games

Justin Verlander, SP: $7,100 – In 135 career AB’s against Mr. Kate Upton, the Oakland A’s batters are hitting just .215 with 33 K’s. After being battered around for most of June, Verlander has looked better in his last two starts with a 3.46 ERA and 11.1 K/9.

Ryan Braun, OF: $5,900 – Braun has seven career hits off  Jays starter J.A. Happ and three of those have been homers. Braun has been heating up lately with 14 hits in his last 10 games with a homer, a triple, four doubles and nine RBI.

Lorenzo Cain, OF: $4,200 – Cain is 7/14 (.583) against Twins right-hander Kevin Correia. On the flip side of things Correia has struggled versus the Royals who have hit .320 off him.

Omar Infante, 2B: $3,800 – Might as well keep picking on Correia as the Vegas over/under is 8 1/2 today. Infante is batting .381 in 21 AB’s against Correia and while it’s a small sample size the price may be right on Omar who is averaging 10+ FPTS over his last five games.

Late Games 

Cole Hamels, SP: $10,600 – Hamels has held the Marlins to a .250 average with 50 K’s in 150 AB’s. Hamels may be a cheaper option over Adam Wainwright tonight as Cole is K-ing 7+ batters over his last seven starts.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $5,600 – While I am not generally a fan of taking hitters against my starting pitcher Giancarlo may be an exception. Stanton is 12/41 (.293) of Hamels, but nine of those hits have been for extra bases and three left the park – one is yet to land.

Josh Hamilton, OF: $4,400 – Hamilton finally broke a 10-game homerless streak Tuesday and has hit .438 off White Sox starter John Danks in 16 at-bats with a 1.099 OPS.

Elvis Andrus, SS: $4,000 – Elvis is 5-for-11 (.455) off O’s starter Chris Tillman and the way balls have been flying out of Camden Yards a Rangers stack attack could be a nice play tonight.

Michael Morse, 1B/OF: $3,700 – Mike Morse and the Giants face Adam Wainwright and the Cards tonight.  Prolly best to avoid the Giants bats, but if you want to roll the dice in a tournament Morse is 4/11 with a homer off Waino.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

According to Razzball meteorologist Golden Sprinkles, scattered thunderstorms are expected for COL/WAS, TEX/BAL, and ARI/PIT. Also the wind is blowing out to left at Fenway Park tonight.

Doing Lines in Vegas

The sharks in Sin City are circling MIL/TOR at 9 1/2 and OAK/DET, CHA/LAA and TEX/BAL all with an over/under of 9.

 

Want to battle it on DraftKings? Just hit me up at TheGuru5150 or follow me on the tweet machine @TheGuruGS

  1. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I’m all about the Brewers in the early set and the Angels in the late. They all kill lefties and both lineups face a southpaw tonight.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Yeah, looking at some high ownership.

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    No Mr. Butch reference, but well…

  3. Cram It says:
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    I don’t see how BVP could be rubbish. Granted it hasn’t worked for me this year too well, but just from personal experience across my completely non-professional baseball career, if I owned a certain pitcher, confidence was through the roof.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      I think it’s a useful stat when deciding on players and worth factoring in, but is not the be all end all.

    • james says:
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      @Cram It:

      I think it depends on how often you see the pitcher. Waino looks like he has faced morse in 3 games (11 ab, but a SP only lasts 6-7 innings, so 3 starts sounds about right). Morse and Waino are both vets who have been around a long time, so those starts were likely spread out. The other thing is… small sample size.

      I would bet that Morse does not think he owns Waino, i would even bet that Morse does not know enough of the stats to even think he owns Waino.

      • The Guru

        The Guru says:
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        Does anyone “own” Waino? Mrs. Waino perhaps?

    • Hawk says:
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      @Cram It:

      BVP is all about sample size and production. When I see 11, 12, 13 AB, to consider BVP I’d need to a lot of hits and a lot of XBH. That’s wearing a guy out.

      As the sample size goes up, the numbers can go down. I look at BVP over 20 AB with an OPS against of 1.2 or higher as a nod in a hitter’s favor. It’s not perfect and it’s not necessarily science – more of an art – but it’s worked for me.

  4. Schlurricane

    Schlurricane says:
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    Lorenzo has the day off peeps… You Cain’t start him!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      SONOFABENCH!

  5. Birdmann says:
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    thoughts on A Jones, Felix and next years 6th pick for Trout, E5 and his 10th.
    Keeper league: team is losing both Trout and E5
    He needs starting pitching and has a ton of power
    I have a ton of pitching and need power
    6×6 league XBH and QS so Felix holds more value than standard leagues.
    I am second and he is in third, I hate trading with those who could beat me but it could push us into 1st and 2nd respectively.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      I’d be doing it.

  6. J-FOH says:
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    Braun as your DK lead for two out of the last three? I think you’re getting a little too Hebrew Hammered when you write these

  7. Mello Yello says:
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    No Zunino bombs today? Ohhhh dude!! (and no Puig? Way to piss in my Shredded Wheat!)

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      The fantasy gods have spoken.

  8. Steve says:
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    Guru,

    What do you think of giving JD + Gausman for Anibal? Need another ace on my staff and have to clear a roster spot for Arenado.

    Maybe rank these OF: Martin, Austin Jackson, JD

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      I’d do it. Me thinks JD is just a hot schmotato and if you need a n ace go get Anibal.

      Jax, Martin, JD.

  9. Chris says:
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    Hey Guru,

    Good stuuf thanks!

    What are your thoughts on Colon SS KC? I need stls and average from him can he do it? Should I pick him up? My MI is not looking good unless jerko can come back strong do you think he will?

    my MI

    Aviles-Andrus-Ecab Valbuena-Jerko

    Also what do you think about Longoria for Andrus who comes out ahead?

    Thanks!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Colon’s a talented player. He was the Omaha Player of the Year last season. I think I need to see a bit of him in the majors before adding him. You may be able to do better on the wire.

      Longo side.

      Thanks for Razballin’,

  10. Darryl says:
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    Throwing my DK account into the night games with that lineup. Only question is what 6500 and under pitcher do i use Chase at Pit Tillman vs Tex or Woods at Bos?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Ugh, sorry I missed your message. Workman was as low as I went a couple teams tonight, but Chase might be ok. I mostly paid up for SP pitching tonight. We’ll see how it goes.

  11. Achilles says:
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    So I was just offered Mike Minor for Jason Hammel in a 10-team, H2H categories league with QS instead of W. Am I overthinking this offer? I feel like Minor is definitely a buy low, while Hammel is a sell high (although he has FIP of 3.11 and SIERA of 3.18 compared to 4.49 and 3.56 for Minor, respectively).

    My other SP are: C. Sale, C. Hamels, S. Gray, A. Wood, D. Fister, C. Kluber, and D. Holland on the DL. What should I do? Thanks Guru.

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      I’d make that deal.

      • Achilles says:
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        @The Guru: Ok thanks for your input boss

      • Achilles says:
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        @The Guru: One more thing, what do u make of Minor’s latest performances? Is he hurt, unlucky, bad? Not sure what to make of it.

        • The Guru

          The Guru says:
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          Think he’s been unlucky. While his K rate is up and the walk rate is down the batting average on balls in play against him is .357. I think Minor can pitch his way out of this slump.

    • Mello Yello says:
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      @Achilles: I don’t think anyone will buy Hanmel even remotely close to what his numbers suggest because people are dreading that other shoe that is likely to drop…

      • Achilles says:
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        @Mello Yello: Right, I am half waiting for his other shoe to drop so I think I will make the deal considering the upside Minor has.

  12. Robert says:
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    B. Belt or Pujols ROS?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Pujols

  13. SDB says:
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    Hey Guru,

    I’ve been offered W. Rosario for S.Pearce. Seems like a no brainer, but of course Pearce’s beastily stats this past month have me hesistant and hoping i found a free agent gem for the season. What do you think?

    Currently at catcher I’ve been rotating guys like Salty,, Vogt, now Arnaud in there.
    Guys at 1st/3rd I’m starting: A. Pujols, P.Alvarez, B.Holt/S.Pearce.

    Thanks in advance!

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Sell high on Pearce, I like it.

  14. J Boy says:
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    14 team roto keeper – been offered Keuchel/Koji for Wacha. I’m afraid Wacha’s shoulder could be a recurring thing go forward – what are your thoughts on pulling the trigger to “win now?”

    Thanks Guru

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      Not in a keeper league. And how many saves is Koji going to really get on my crappy Red Sox team?

  15. Joe says:
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    Gurú would you trade Gio González and jean segura for buster posey?

    • The Guru

      The Guru says:
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      No

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