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Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunday!

After a week off in which I studied game film of the 2003 Grey Cup QF’s (single greatest game in Canadian Football history), I am back and what a day to return to! There are many fantastic games on tap for today, and many high scoring ones at that as well, as we see some with very high O/U’s on the docket, with six games over 9 total runs scored. So why is this? Superb offenses? Maybe, but I have to say, I’m not excited about pitching options for the day, as there are many weak guys taking the mound today, and are likely to give up a whole bunch of runs. Gas cans.

There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of. Kendall Graveman and John Lamb are two very mediocre pitchers facing off in what is shaping up to be a shootout. Adam Morgan is facing a Nats’ team that is primed to hang up a lot of runs. And for those of you playing the all-day slate, the Rockies-Padres games has a O/U at a whopping 12 total runs scored.

With many great offensive opportunities and gas cans to target, how do we attack pitching on a slate like this?

You’ll have to keep reading.

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Steven Matz, SP: $10,700 – Almost like every slate, most of the cheap pitching are not options that instill confidence in us, and so it may be beneficial to spend up at pitching once again. Our top pitching option on the slate is Jon Lester (priced at a crisp $13,400), and I think he’s the cash game play without a doubt, however I’m starting to like Matz more and more. Not only is he facing the Brewers (favorite by -121), he’s also very similar in the season thus far compared to Lester, but he’s $3k less. His SIERA is the lowest on the slate, he has a fairly good K-rate at 25%, and he’s a very good groundball pitcher, with not much risk to blow up. His definitely better against lefty bats, and won’t face much today, but it shouldn’t make that much of a difference. He’s a safe bet to pick up the win, and should rack up some K’s to help his upside in tournaments.

Michael FulmerSP: $9,000 – Fulmer will be starting today at Yankee Stadium, which is never a good thing, however he’s another very solid option with multi-K upside you can use in Tourneys. He has one of the top K-rates on the slate at 25.10%, 4th behind Danny Salazar, Jon Lester and John Grant. He also has a very impressive 11.30 SwK%, proving he can consistently get guys out with his stuff. Facing the Yankees is a daunting task, one that could definitely depress his salary, however I believe he’ll provide a lot of us with a very strong showing.

Dallas Keuchel, SP: $8,600 – Dallas Keuchel has definitely picked it up since the beginning of this year, however, he’s still not where he needs to be to have a good bounce-back season after his fantastic one a year before. He’ll face the Rays today, and in order to fit in some of the top bats that we want, if we want any, he’ll provide a solid salary-relief option. Keuchel is somewhat average in regards to his SIERA and K-rate (3.75 and 20.20% respectively), but the biggest thing going for him is his ability to keep things on the ground with a sick 57.00 GB%. With that being said, he may give up 1-2 homers (17.90 HR/FB rate), but he should provide a solid outing to those that need it.

Salvador Perez, C: $3,000 – Because Carlos Rodon is automatic against lefty bats so far in 2016, the rest of his stats start to say how good he is, but we still have to keep in mind that he is not so hot against righties. With a 4.73 xFIP, a 10.10% BB-rate and a .360 wOBA allowed to righties, we can start to look for the certain Royals players that perform well against southpaws. Perez fits that profile, as through 2016 so far he has posted a 18.2% K-rate, a .220 ISO, and a 104 wRC+. As a fairly cheap C that we can use to fit the studs in, we can expect a solid game from Perez in hopes he can belt a HR or two.

Nick Hundley, C: $3,000 – A nice pivot off of Perez for those of you playing in the all-day slate. Hundley is in a good place with a game O/U of 12 total runs scored in Coors Field. Hundley will have to face Christian Friedrich, who has struggled against righties with a 5.50 xFIP, a 13.70% BB-rate, and has a low K-rate and a low SwK% in general. Hundley will be lower-owned than Perez, but in Coors, anything can happen.

Dae-Ho Lee, 1B: $2,800 – A great value play, that will go overlooked in tournaments. Cole Hamels is not a gas can by any means, and the biggest way to attack Hamels is through the players with lots of pop. Hamels is a very solid SP, yet the biggest thing against him is his ability to get blown up with a 31.80% Hard-rate to righties, and a ridiculous 23.60% HR/FB-rate. Lee fits this profile, as through 65+ PA’s through 2016 thus far, Lee owns a .316 ISO, a .400 wOBA, and a 160 wRC+. This obviously won’t hold, but it’s good to see how well he is playing thus far against southpaws, and for less that $3k, I love the value and the spot he’s in.

Billy Butler, 1B: $3,600 – I love love love the Athletics bats today against John Lamb. “Oakland All the Things!” I say! John Lamb is not a good pitcher, and it definitely shows this year in his 5.34 SIERA, 12.80% K-rate, to go along with his 4.85 xFIP, 13.6% K-rate, and .342 wOBA allowed to righty bats. Good thing for Butler, who has done very well against southpaws whenever he has faced them in 2016 to the tune of a 14.9% K-rate, .182 ISO, .363 wOBA, and a 133 wRC+. He’s a very safe, yet inexpensive play today at the 1B position.

Justin Smoak, 1B: $3,500 – Smoak hasn’t been the greatest this year, but he has been doing well for himself, and today he can have a great performance, and should get overlooked. He’ll square off against Jimenez towards the middle of the lineup, and is in prime positioning to drive home some runs. Jimenez owns a a very low K-rate in general to go along with his 5.12 xFIP, 17.30% K-rate, 13.40% BB-rate, and a .428 wOBA allowed to lefties. Smoak has been quitely getting it done so far in ’16 against RHP’s, with a 13.5% BB-rate, .194 ISO, .362 wOBA, and a 128 wRC+. He does carry some risk, however, as he also owns a 34.1% K-rate against RHP’s. Because of the possibility of a 0-4 game, he’ll draw some low ownership levels, but the reward should be greater than the risk.

Cesar Hernandez, 2B: $2,900 – Hernandez won’t have a multi-HR game today, and he might not even crack 20 points, however he’s a low-priced, low-owned punt play against an SP who has given up a 4.97 xFIP, a 12.00% BB-rate, and a .328 wOBA allowed to lefties in 2016 thus far, so Hernandez is a prime candidate to get on base.

Danny Valencia, 3B: $4,500 – If you can afford him today, I would consider it. Like I mentioned with Butler above, I love the Atheistic today, as John Lamb is the prime definition of a gas can with a 5.34 SIERA, 12.80% K-rate, to go along with his 4.85 xFIP, 13.6% K-rate, and .342 wOBA allowed to righty bats. Although Valencia doesn’t have a 100+ PA sample size against southpaws in 2016, he has crushed them at every opportunity to the tune of a 12.2% K-rate, an insane .474 ISO (definitely won’t hold, but it’s good to see how well he has done so far), a .562 wOBA (same here), and a 270 wRC+. He’s in a prime position if you can spend up.

Zack Cozart, SS: $4,500 – Cozart will be facing Athletics SP Kendall Graveman, who by all means necessary is a gas can. With an insane 20.40% HR/FB-rate so far in 2016, Graveman has a serious chance to be blown up, and quickly. With a low K-rate in general, he also is not very good against righty bats, with a 4.80 xFIP, 11.3% K-rate, and a .400 wOBA allowed. Cozart meanwhile, has been tearing up RHP’s this year to the tune of a 12.7% K-rate, .209 ISO, .342 wOBA, and a 112 wRC+. With a high ISO against a pitcher with an insanely high HR/FB, Cozart is a good bet to have at least one dinger.

Michael Saunders, OF: $4,100 – Saunders is putting together a very nice year so far in a lineup filled with All-Stars (although it may not reflect it in the voting thus far), and a lot of that success has come against RHP’s, like it should. With a 10.9% BB-rate, a .209 ISO, .376 wOBA and a 138 wRC+, it’s no wonder why he has been consistently producing. He should square off against Ubaldo Jimenez in the cleanup spot today. By no means is Jimenez a gas can, however it should be noted that he has a very low K-rate in general to go along with his 5.12 xFIP, 17.30% K-rate, 13.40% BB-rate, and a .428 wOBA allowed to lefties.

Jayson Werth, OF: $5,000 – The elite OF. A nice pivot from Adam Duvall for those looking to pay up for a OF, Werth is in a juicy matchup against Adam Morgan. Morgan is the prime example of a gas can, with a 4.68 xFIP, a 15.50% K-rate, and a 35.70% GB-rate. He’s worse against lefties than righties (so any Nats’ lefties you want, plug in with confidence), however he still gives up a 4.84 xFIP, and a .370 wOBA allowed to righties. Werth has crushed against lefties in his entire career, even through 51 PA’s this year, and in 2015, he posted a .282 ISO, a 104 wRC+ and a .325 wOBA. If you can afford a top-priced OF and do not like Duvall, look for Werth into your lineup.

Lorenzo Cain, OF: $4,200 – Like Perez, Carlos Rodon is automatic against lefty bats so far in 2016, the rest of his stats start to say how good he is, but we still have to keep in mind that he is not so hot against righties. With a 4.73 xFIP, a 10.10% BB-rate and a .360 wOBA allowed to righties, we can start to look for the certain Royals players that perform well against southpaws. Luckily, there’s one in Lorenzo Cain. Through 2016 so far, he has done very well against LHP’s to the tune of a 13.7% K-rate, .261 ISO, a .463 wOBA and a 198 wRC+. Those stats won’t be the exact same, but it’s good to see his successes thus far.

Odubel Herrera, OF: $3,700 – Like I mentioned with Hernandez, Herrera draws a matchup against Joe Ross who has given up a 4.97 xFIP, a 12.00% BB-rate, and a .328 wOBA allowed to lefties in 2016 thus far. Herrera has done a pretty solid job so far in 2016 against RHP’s to the tune of a 14.8% BB-rate, a .390 wOBA and a 146 wRC+, providing that most of his fantasy points will come not from the HR’s, but from the multi-base hit and base hit–>run scored during the game.

Franklin Gutierrez, OF: $2,700 – Like Lee, a great, great value play, that will go overlooked in tournaments. Cole Hamels is not a gas can by any means, and the biggest way to attack Hamels is through the players with lots of pop. Hamels is a very solid SP, yet the biggest thing against him is his ability to get blown up with a 31.80% Hard-rate to righties, and a ridiculous 23.60% HR/FB-rate. Gutierrez can definitely capitalize on his matchup with Hamels, as he had a .298 ISO, a .411 wOBA and a 168 wRC+ in 2015. This specific matchup is a great one to take advantage of at sub-3k.

I’m Only Happy When it Rains-

Only one area of focus, and it is very very minimal, as it probably won’t rain. The Oakland-Cincinnati game should experience shome showers pre 1pm EST first pitch, and it should clear up an hour into the game. I would monitor the weather, but it shouldn’t be a big deal.

Doing Lines in Vegas-

Jon Lester is the highest-favorited QB on the docket with a Vegas ML of -275, with Washington’s Joe Ross coming in second with a ML of -230. As I mentioned above, there are many different offensive weapons with games to choose from, with 6 games coming at or above 9 total points. Some of the games and offensive weapons that I choose from would be from the Baltimore-Detroit, and Oakland-Cincinnati games, both games are currently on paced for a high-scoring game.

Alright guys, thanks for sticking around! Like always, if you have a comment or question, feel free to leave a comment below!

You Can Follow Zach on Tiwtter @ohuhave12