There’s a trio of aces going tonight and it’s really picking your own poison as to which of them you choose (Kershaw, Strasburg, Sale). I always like to defer to a pitcher at home when it’s a close call. That, and the opponent give Stephen Strasburg the edge when it comes to the aces. However, Chris Sale’s price point is very intriguing. Even facing a good offense that doesn’t strike out a ton, I’d be very tempted to take the discount on Sale’s upside. Beyond those three is a whole bunch of sevens. You know the type; they aren’t tens, they’re not a four, they’re just right there in the middle. I’ll leave the aces up to you and help you through picking the couple of sevens to complete our full house. My seven of choice tonight is Jason Hammel at $11,100. Surprise, surprise, I’m picking on the Braves yet again. These things tend to happen when you’re dead last in team OPS. The Braves are barely ahead of Mark Trumbo for home runs on the season (23 vs. 20) and only 10 of those 23 homers have come at home. It’s a whole lot of ugly for the Braves this year and to put a cherry on top, Bud Norris gets the start tonight. Bud Norris against the hottest team in baseball should go swimmingly, meaning Hammel should cruise to the easy win. Hammel’s FIP suggests he’s actually been a bit lucky so far this year, likely due to his 0.6 HR/9. That’s about 0.5 HR/9 less than his career norm. A correction is coming for Hammel, but I’d bet that comes at Wrigley field against a legitimate offense, not tonight in Turner field against Freddie Freeman and a Quad-A lineup. Here’s some more sevens and some offensive plays for tonight’s slate:
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Steven Wright, SP: $12,200 – Boy, the Stream-O-Nator really hates him some Steven Wright. A knuckleballer must have driven off with his hairdryer back in younger days and he’s clearly never gotten over it. I have no such grudges though and I’m all sorts of googly eyed over Steven Wright. His knuckleball has been described all season long by John Farrell as “violent”. If you’ve seen the guys pitch and more so, seen Ryan Hanigan trying to catch the thing you’ll know what he means. It’s no wonder Hanigan hit the DL with a neck strain, trying to catch this knuckler looks like a giant pain in the neck. Wright has been a model of consistency, a rarity for a knuckleballer, only having given up more than 3 ER once so far. His numbers thus far look better than R.A. Dickey’s did the year he won the Cy Young. Minnesota hasn’t been an offensive powerhouse (bottom third in team OPS) and has been striking out a healthy amount as well (top 3rd in team Ks). Don’t be like SON, go with Wright, even at the high price tag.
Lance McCullers, SP: $10,300 – Tampa Bay is another fine target for DFS purposes, not for the same reasons as the Braves though. The Rays have a knack for striking out, the 4th most in baseball to be exact. Lance McCullers has a propensity for striking people out. His 12.04 K/9 is behind only Jose Fernandez for starters with at least 25 IP. Impressive company. He can get himself into trouble in a hurry (6.2 BB/9) but the upside is primo. Just swallow a handful of Tums to deal with the heartburn of watching him pitch.
Jon Gray, SP: $8,800 – This one’s going to take some cajones, or ovaries for our 5 female readers. Last season the only pitcher I used in DFS in Coors field was Clayton Kershaw. I’m not saying Gray is Kershaw by any means, but I am saying…he gets to face the Padres there, not the Rockies lineup. Gray has mystified the Padres twice already, racking up 23 Ks against them in 13 IP. Obviously, the downside is huge, but as a GPP play, who should be low owned with tremendous strikeout upside, I’ll have some shares tonight.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $7,400 – Someone at DraftKings headquarters was hitting the sauce a little too hard when they drummed up pricing for tonight. Iwakuma here and Gerrit Cole at $7,000 seem off. Sure, Iwakuma’s upside isn’t tremendous, but boring reliability plays a part too, especially when it’s cheap. I could see a lineup with Iwakuma/Cole and a loaded up offense doing quite nicely tonight. Food for thought if you’re feeling frugal at the SP spot.
Brian McCann, C: $4,100 – Career numbers vs. Mike Pelfrey: 20/43 (.465) with 2 HRs. I’d say he sees the ball pretty well against him. It’s rare our BvP play of the night shows up at catcher, but there you have it. A perfect match for that Iwakuma/Cole lineup .Otherwise, go grab David Ross for $2,600 facing his former team.
Mark Reynolds, 1B: $3,800 – I’m stacking up every Rockie hitter I can tonight against Andrew Cashner. Cashner’s been horrid in Petco (4.41 ERA), things could get very ugly for him tonight in Coors.
John Jaso, 1B: $3,500 – I’m not sure if Michael Wacha still has some name value left or if everyone has realized he’s not that good. With any luck, he’s got enough name value left that people won’t think to stack against him. Pittsburgh has the 6th best team OPS vs. RHP, not that it matters much, Wacha has been giving it up to both righties and lefties pretty equally. It’s hard to beat a cheap leadoff man for a team poised to score plenty of runs.
Jean Segura, 2B: $4,200 – It seems like Segura has gotten a little lost in the shuffle of late. The leadoff man for the snakes has been slumping a bit, but no one expected him to bat over .300 this year. He’s still at the top of a great lineup in a great park and tonight they get a pretty blah lefty in Justin Nicolino. Sounds like a slumpbuster to me.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $2,800 – Did you know that Marco Estrada has the second highest fly ball percentage in the league? Me either until I started digging into his numbers. 48.5% is second only to Drew Smyly’s 51.0%. However, their HR/FB ratios are completely opposite. In fact, Estrada’s is about half of Smyly’s (7.4% vs. 14%). It makes sense then that Estrada’s ERA is 2.41, his FIP is 3.82 and his xFIP checks in at 4.68. That’s more like the Estrada we know and love. All this boils down to a visit from the regression fairies on the horizon. The O’s in Camden could be where it all starts. I want to be on board when the correction comes.
Yasmany Tomas, 3B: $3,800 – Yes Many has been pretty quiet lately, but a mediocre lefty heading into Coors south might be just the thing to get him going. I like picking on Nicolino quite a bit tonight. When Arizona visited Miami a couple weeks back, Nicolino gave up a lot of flyball outs. If the D-Backs can get some balls up in the Arizona air tonight, there will be no amount of unicorn vomit in center field to keep them in the park.
Javier Baez, 3B/SS: $3,100 – Bud flipping Norris. I can’t stand this guy, I hope he gives up 15 runs every time he takes the mound. This is more than just a personal vendetta why I’m recommending Baez though. Baez possess a rare commodity, one that was thought to be extinct post roid-era: middle infielder power. Bud Norris possess a 6.5 K rate and a 4.7 walk rate. Enjoy Cubbies!
Jason Heyward, OF: $3,800 – Even Jason Heyward might do things tonight. Plus, revenge game. #NarrativeStreet
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $4,000 – I was beginning to wonder if Chris Sale was human to start the season, but the last few starts he’s shown he is indeed mortal. Lorenzo Cain has been proving that all along apparently. In one of the most surprising BvP lines I’ve come across, Lorenzo is 16/46 (.381) with 3 HRs and a SB against Sale.
Justin Upton, OF: $3,100 – The turnaround is happening, finally! I only managed to draft this bum on just about every team this year, so I feel the pain. I’ve still enjoyed rostering him in DFS the past couple weeks and will continue to do so while his price is low.
Hyun Soo Kim, OF: $2,700 – Kim has been batting second lately and is another cheapie that I’ve been playing a lot of lately. A guy hitting in the 2 hole in a softball lineup for this cheap is criminally cheap. Take the salary relief and load up elsewhere.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a chance for some rain in Minnesota tonight. As finicky as the knuckleball is, I would completely avoid Steven Wright if there’s rain involved. Drizzle and the knuckler don’t mix, so it’s something to watch out for if you’re thinking about using Wright. How did the Twins get away with not having a retractable roof stadium anyway?
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas conquers with my Jason Hammel pick as he and the Cubbies are the biggest favorite of the night at -260. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen a 5.5 run over/under for a game, but Kershaw vs. Cueto has earned the miniscule total. The biggest total is completely on the other end of the spectrum. The Coors game is a 12 run over/under. Outside of that there are a pair of 9.5 run over/under games. Detroit and Mike Pelfrey visiting Yankee stadium and the Sawx facing Tyler Duffey in Minnesota.
