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This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft.  Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally.  Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source.

Personally, I ignore team totals throughout a draft and go by feel in terms of my team’s balance.  While I have had regrettable drafts over the years, I do not recall one that failed because my team was not balanced enough.  If I do happen to have the time and curiosity to do an in-draft litmus test, I just add up the dollar values per category to see which categories are lowest.

Final note:  The differences between ESPN and Yahoo roster formats are much greater for hitters (13 ESPN starting spots vs. 10 in Yahoo) than pitchers (9 pitchers in ESPN vs. 8 pitchers in Yahoo).  In daily leagues, I have found that Yahoo leagues end up with similar innings totals as ESPN leagues, indicating that owners are that much more aggressive in cycling in relievers during SP off days and/or streaming.  So you will find the same targets for ESPN and Yahoo.

CBSSports leagues should match ESPN assuming you use the roster format: C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P.  For NFBC or other 2-catcher leagues, you should add a 2nd catcher’s worth of stats on the offensive side.

Roster Format # of Teams Point Total (75th percentile) R HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA WHIP K
ESPN 10 7.5 1,089  283 1,049 201 0.279 98 108 3.25 1.17 1,326
ESPN 12 9 1,056 277 1,026 184 0.276 95 95 3.32 1.18 1,275
ESPN 14 10.5 1,021 265 996 176 0.275 92 84 3.36 1.19 1,237
ESPN 15 11.25 1,006 258 979 172 0.274 92 78 3.39 1.20 1,238
ESPN 16 12 990 252 963 167 0.274 92 73 3.41 1.20 1,226
Yahoo 10 7.5 863 233 840 155 0.281 98 108 3.25 1.17 1,326
Yahoo 12 9 841 221 811 155 0.280 95 95 3.32 1.18 1,275
Yahoo 14 10.5 821 216 796 147 0.277 92 84 3.36 1.19 1,237
Yahoo 15 11.25 813 215 790 141 0.276 92 78 3.39 1.20 1,238
Yahoo 16 12 801 211 779 137 0.275 92 73 3.41 1.20 1,226
  1. Tehol Beddict says:
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    First

    • Kid A says:
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      @Tehol Beddict:

      Decision 2014

      Which outlet best fits Tehol’s writing and analytical skills?

      0%
      Yahoo! Sports (0 votes)

      17%
      Razzball (1 vote)

      17%
      Penthouse Forum (1 vote)

      67%
      Highlights Magazine (4 votes)

      Total Votes: 6 (One per Owner)

      • Tehol Beddict says:
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        @Kid A: I voted for Penthouse.

        • Greyismyhero says:
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          @Tehol Beddict: Dominic Brown last night in 8th round, as my 2nd utility/5th OF!! and got Samardzija in 14th….12 teamer H2H, thoughts?

          • Tehol Beddict says:
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            @Greyismyhero: I’d say u couldn’t have hoped for anything better. Love both of them like sons

  2. L-Boogie says:
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    For 2C leagues, it shouldn’t really move the AVG needle too much and if there’s a 2nd catcher that contributes to SBs please tell me who it is.

    But what are the ballpark stats for 2nd catcher runs, HR, and RBI? Looking at 2013 stats, does 50-12-50 sound about right?

    • @L-Boogie: In 12-team 2 catcher leagues? I just averaged my 13th-24th rated catchers and you almost nailed it perfectly. I got 50/13/50 with a .244 and about 3 SBs. By the time you get to 12-team AL/NL, i think the splits get down to something depresssing like 20/5/20

  3. Brian says:
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    Why does Tehol Beddict seem like the exact type of guy who would post ‘First’ on a message board?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Brian: if you have to ask, then you’ll never understand the legend that is Tehol.

      • Tehol Beddict says:
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        @Jay: Jesus christ its a joke because, you know, people do that shizzzzz all the time and its lame. Some of these readers are starting to annoy me.

        • Kid A says:
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          @Tehol Beddict:

          Quick Temper. – CHECK.
          Inferiority complex. – CHECK.
          Delusions of grandeur. – CHECK.
          Specific loss of insight. – CHECK.
          Lack of remorse or shame. – CHECK.
          Suicide threats rarely carried out. —–
          Lack of charm and average intelligence. – CHECK.
          General poverty in major affective reactions. – CHECK.
          Poor judgement and failure to learn from experience. – CHECK.
          Fantastic and uninviting behavior with drink, and sometimes without. – CHECK.

          • Nick says:
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            @Kid A: Your stuff is pretty funny Kid A, I gotta say. I still have Tehol’s back though.

            • Tehol Beddict says:
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              @Nick: it huuuuuuuuuuuurts

          • Tehol Beddict says:
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            @Kid A: did you mean Superiority complex? big check there Kid A. I’m officially removing you from my league. Sky said he’d take you on. goodbye my friend

            • Kid A says:
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              @Tehol Beddict:
              You have buckled at your brazilian waxed seams.
              About what I expected. You wouldn’t have been able to handle a full season of this anyways. It’s best for you.

              For the future: I’d advise not telling readers to go F-themselves.

            • Beastman says:
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              @Tehol Beddict: Is there a Razzball glossary term for being banished from an RCL?

              • Kid A says:
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                @Beastman: FIRST!

              • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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                @Beastman: Tea holed

                • goodfold2 says:
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                  @Wallpaper Paterson: holy shit these 2 are great
                  Specific loss of insight
                  Lack of charm and average intelligence

                  • goodfold2 says:
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                    @goodfold2: this should’ve been the 2nd one i listed
                    General poverty in major affective reactions

        • matt says:
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          @Tehol Beddict: punch em in the FUPA Tehol!

  4. Tedschrott says:
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    It seems that the target stats have changed dramatically compared to last year. (at least for Yahoo 12): Yahoo 841 (807), HR 221 (218), RBI 811 (78), SB 155 (134), AVG 0.280 (0.271), W 95 (87), SV 95 (110), ERA 3.32 (3.64), Whip 1.18 (1.25), K 1,275 (1139). Any idea why? Just curious.

    • @Tedschrott: Last year, I did all the Point Shares/$ in Excel. This year I did them in our ‘factory’ that’s also used for the Season to Date and End of Season player raters. So that could explain some of it. It’s also that it’s a new year so the environment used in Steamer projections may have changed slightly.

      The areas I’m more uncomfortable projecting are AVG/ERA/WHIP because there’s more randomness there. It’s easy for ‘goal’ projection to be too bullish on ratios.

      That said, if we all are using pre-season projections to determine whether we met goals, then you should use the more bullish ratios.

      Ugh, I gave myself a headache.

      • Tedschrott says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks a lot. I used your numbers last year and they were right on target. If you aim for a 1.17 Whip and and a 3.32 ERA you have to spend too much on pitching though, at least imho. Anyway, great article and great site.

  5. Birdmann says:
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    Nice write up I compared it to my 14 team Yahoo last year and I found you pretty spot on. With your totals you would have 11pts in HR, 12 in runs, 13 in RBI, 13.5 in SB, and 13.5 in AVG. Pitching is hard because we have 1500 innings so SO don’t match up but the others do 11pts in wins, 7 in saves, 12 pts. in ERA, 11 pts in WHIP and 4 pts in SO. Thanks good way to measure success.

    • @Birdmann: Thanks. I’d think of these as draft-day goals only. So it’s best not to gauge your team’s K’s in a 1500 IP league since you are only drafting about 1300-1350 IP.

      • Birdmann says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I understand that, I just like to reflect. Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it and as the case with some of my league mates it is year after year.

  6. Charlie says:
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    I’m in a Yahoo 10 h2h league and I’ve pulled these numbers from Grey a few weeks ago. They seem to be a bit different than what you have above, Rudy, for a Yahoo 10 team league. Which should I use?

    R 856
    HR 220
    RBI 827
    SB 175
    AVG 0.272

    ERA 3.37
    WHIP 1.23
    W 103
    S 105
    K 1261

    • @Charlie: Not sure where those came from. Maybe last year’s post? I’d use the ones I provided above. Just realize that H2H is a different beast. I wouldn’t draft to these goals per se for H2H. Perhaps aim to finish slightly above on all things except SB and SV while stashing additional arms on the bench.

      • Charlie says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Yes. I know this is more of a measuring tool for roto vs h2h. However, I like to have some sort of a gauge as to where I’m lacking/excelling while drafting.

        How much should I inflate each category (except sb and sv)? 10%?? 20%?

        The hardest thing I’m having is when to start drafting closers. Grey noted he likes to start around pick 120 (10 team league). When do you suggest starting to pull the trigger on closers? Also my league is 2 SP, 2 RP, and 4 P. Of those 8 pitchers how many closers would you draft?

        Thanks!

        • SoCG says:
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          @Charlie: Was wondering too how much “slightly above” you think we should aim. Play in a H2H league and would like to apply some of this logic to my league. Great work, as always Rudy.

          • I do have an H2H league I’m doing with razzball writers that’s being run by our podcast guru Nick.

            Here’s how I’d do it for H2H roto:
            1) Grab the player rater that most closely fits your league (hope one is close)
            2) Delete the SB and SV columns
            3) Add the $ back up, multiply by 1.25 (5/4) and add $1.

            Then I’m just aiming to max the $ for the 4 remaining categories in hitting/pitching. Maybe I draft a closer or two but dirt-cheap.

  7. Joe blow says:
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    Know of any RP with SP eligibility to target that provide good ratios or K’s? We start 5 SP and 2RP in out yahoo league. Any possible closers with SP eligibility? I had Brett Myers as a closer in my SP slot a few seasons backs and it paid major dividends

      • SteveNZ says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: @Joe blow: My H2H league (Yahoo) counts Holds so at the start of each season pull up all the SPs and then sort by Holds to see which SP/RPs float to the top. Not very scientific, but there you go.

        Unfortunately this year, the selection looks pretty lamentable. Garrett, Richards, Gorzelanny, Paul Clemens and not a lot else. There’s always a couple that emerge through the season though.

  8. Chris says:
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    Hello Rudy, Thanks for the article.
    Which you be your 3 keepers from this group:
    Edwin Encarnacion, Stanton, J Upton, Pedroia, or Yu Darvish
    Thanks

  9. MattTruss223 says:
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    Thanks Rudy, particularly helpful for doing my first NFBC draft. I had some rough totals to shoot for, but this helps a bunch. Great work as always.

    • @MattTruss223: Thanks. Just remember to add a little bit for the 2nd catcher. I’d add 48/12/48/2 and just leave the AVG.

  10. Q says:
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    Any chance of AL/NL only targets?

    This is great, thanks so much

    • @Q: Possible but not sure when I’d have them.

  11. Jake Kimball says:
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    HI Rudi,

    Kind of confused. I simulated a draft by ranking all the hitters and pitchers separately and assumed they were all picked in order by 9 teams snake style. The team with the most runs looked like this:

    Name R
    Miguel Cabrera 110
    Hanley Ramirez 81
    Evan Longoria 86
    Starling Marte 89
    Ian Kinsler 90
    Josh Hamilton 77
    Jacoby Ellsbury 89
    Will Venable 76
    Mike Napoli 78
    Brandon Phillips 71
    Todd Frazier 63
    Wilson Ramos 50
    Total 960

    That seems like a pretty solid team, so how does one improve on this to the tune of 129 more runs just to get 3rd place?

    The range of runs was 923 to 960. Does your method result in wider range?

  12. coco krispie says:
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    Rudy, keeper league, 5×5 (OBP,QS) 13 team, who should I keep between J. Bautista and Jose Fernandez? my other keepers are Harper, Braun, and Beltre.

  13. Big Al says:
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    Great timing Rudy I’m getting ready to draft 4 ESPN leagues including 2 of your Commenter leagues and wanted a guideline for balancing out my teams. You the man Rudy. One of the many reasons I read Razzball everyday. Keep up the good work guys. ..

    • @Big Al: Thanks. FYI, the way I’m balancing my teams this year is just using the Player Rater and adding up the category $. This lets me see if I’m over in one category vs the other. Other than being low on Saves, it’s been working great (or at least I think it is – we’ll see come October).

  14. Big Magoo says:
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    Good stuff, Rudy. This is always helpful considering the fact that I have a mix of 10, 12, and 15 team leagues to draft for.

    Did taking Bradley start a prospect run?

    • @Big Magoo: well, Baez got taken but everyone else in our 21st round are near the bottom of the barrel regulars (Smoak, Willingham, Cozart, etc.)

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Yeah, I’d rather grab a prospect with upside over those types of players at that point of the draft. Maybe someone like Morse would be a good pick out of the veteran pool. Is Polanco still on the board?

        • don’t be throwing out names! people in my draft could be reading this…c’mon now.

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: Mea culpa. I didn’t realize that Placido was still such a valuable fantasy commodity…

  15. Q says:
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    Have my 12 Team NL only auction tonight. Given news about Hamels, any idea what his $ amount might fall to? Wasn’t a target, but if people overreact, what’s a nice value for him?

    thanks, rudy

    • @Q: I just updated all the $ values and projections this morning based on latest news. I’ve got Hamels missing 15% of the season (roughly 5 starts). I’ve got him at $14 for NL 12 team.

  16. smegma says:
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    Hello Rudy – I really like using your stat articles for pre-draft preparation. Please let me know when you plan on doing the review of baseball projections for 2013 (Zips, CAIRO, etc.)in hopes I can use it before this year’s draft.

    Thanks!

  17. Andrew A says:
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    is this daily leagues?

    I had a really good offense (with a keeper league advantage) in a 10 team roto, so adding a catcher to the ESPN category, and I had 300 HR and 170 something SB. 2nd place in those categories had 273 and 160 something

    • @Andrew A: yes, this is daily leagues although it doesn’t factor in keepers which could make the league more lopsided. It’s also based on pre-season projections – not necessarily how one does the previous year.

  18. SteveNZ says:
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    Hi Rudy – excellent work as usual, and unlike some of your other stuff, I don’t have to lie down with a cold flannel on my forehead ;-)

    You’ll recall we were discussing on your 6×6 Yahoo OBP rankings page about the value of certain players in that format. You said that you’d draft Votto at #5 in my H2H league where we count both AVG and OBP.

    I’m down with that, but just curious as to where you’d take Prince? He ranks a couple of spots ahead of Votto overall here:

    http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12-6X6OBP

    but has $9 of OBP value as opposed to Votto’s $15.

    • @SteveNZ: yeah, votto and fielder are a toss-up in that format. i like votto better.

  19. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    that table converting 2 start values that become equal to 1 start values. could it be added to the SON page? very nice, but that post will fade into memory obscurity (not the lessons, but that table might) unless it’s easily accessible. Or just make it it’s own link on “tools” up above.

  20. Spammer Jay says:
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    Couple of separate questions for ya!

    1. Do you think Gausman gains RP eligibility this season?
    2. I’ve been seeing Encarnacion drop off in my drafts, does the wrist surgery bother you allot?

    • kangaroo hops says:
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      @Spammer Jay: 1. I think Gausman is starting in the bullpen this year, the way it looks, so yes.
      2. It doesn’t worry me, but that’s just me. I haven’t noticed any fall in drafts, as I haven’t done any.

  21. Brian England says:
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    Ended up with the 12th pick in a Yahoo 12 tm league. roster size 21 players Would you take Kershaw if still available with the 12th or 13th pick or grab 2 hitters?

    • @Brian England: that’s about where i’d start considering kershaw. it’s not great value based on a 67/33 split. based on what i’ve seen in 15-team drafts, i probably would stick w/ 2 hitters – a 1B and OF being ideal. Feels like after Kershaw and Darvish that there’s no consensus #3 and the 3rd rounds are going more hitter-heavy than usual. So you’ll have a nice SP1 to choose from for your 3rd/4th round picks.

      • Brian England says:
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        Thanks I was leaning towards 2 hitters but thought I’d ask an expert. Last year I gambled on SP in Rd 2 & that backfired big time.

  22. Buge Hoobs says:
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    Please forgive me Razzballers, but it’s too late and I’m way too tired to think …

    Yahoo 12 team, however we only start 9 bats (only 1 U) and 7 P’s
    A little bit off the counting stats and a couple of points better to AVG, WHIP and ERA sound right?

    • @Buge Hoobs: Yes, figure that UTIL is probably 75/20/75/8. Leave pitching where it is as people will stream more. That’s why ESPN and Yahoo are the same despite one having 9 P and the other having 8 P (the 2SP/2RP/4SP is a useless designation since everyone typically has 2 RP). If you have access to last year’s stats, would be interesting to see the average IP. I assume about 1,300/team

      • Buge Hoobs says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: @Rudy Gamble: People do stream, but it’s difficult as it’s a weekly league. I’m not sure I can find last year’s stats, but IP has never been an issue for anyone that I can remember, it’s set so high (1500 for only 7 P’s)

  23. Mike says:
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    Hey Rudy…

    Re: the slow draft NFBC leagues… How far along is your league’s draft? And do you know if we can get stats from NFBC re: last year’s winning teams? What were the average winning R, HR, RBI, W, K, S, etc. totals for winning teams? What were the numbers for the eventual champion? Can we get that from them?

      • Mike says:
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        @mrrr:

        we’re just completing the 18th round. thanks for the stats source…

        • mrrr says:
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          @Mike: will be interesting to compare the drafts when done.

      • @mrrr: i had a choppy time in some of those middle rounds (got sniped twice on catchers) but feeling it now.

        • mrrr says:
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          @Rudy Gamble: I think we grabbed Castro right before you.

      • Mike says:
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        @mrrr: we’ve just begun round 21; waiting for some goofy schmohawk named “Albright” to make the 4th pick of the round. All in all though… not a bad 24 hours – we got a full 4 rounds in.

        • mrrr says:
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          @Mike: @Mike: almost done with round 25. Looks like we got 7 rounds in the last 24. I need to start thinking about who I want in the 26th so Rudy can snipe him right before us.

          • Mike says:
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            @mrrr: third of the way through round 26 – I drafted 15th, so had the first pick ofthe 26th. I nabbed Grady Sizemore – he’s outperforming J. Bradley in a really big way. Here’s to hoping he wins the job.

  24. George Bell says:
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    Great article!

    Where did you pull the averages from?
    Could you povide the 83rd percentile (10/12) for Yahoo 12 team 5×5?

    Thanks in advance

    • @George Bell: these are modeled based on the Steamer/Razzball projections. I use the model to determine the point shares that end up being converted to $ in the Pre-Season Player Rater.

      This post is all I’ll provide on the ‘goals’. Sorry.

  25. johnsicklecellanemia says:
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    Thank you.

    I am new here, but this is the greatest site I have ever come across.

  26. Eric R. says:
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    Just drafted ESPN and loved my team til I looked at the “standings” which ranked my team dead last. Somebody comfort me, please

    C Rosario
    1 Fielder
    2 Gyorko
    3 Ramirez
    SS Andrus
    MI Profar
    CI Abreu
    OF Jones, Bruce, Josh Hamilton, A Jackson, M Brantly
    UT Brad Miller
    P Darvish, J Fern, Bailey, Cole, Gray, Tillman, T Wood, Porcello
    RP Robertson, Soriano
    BE Carter, Taveras

    • George Bell says:
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      @Eric R.: @Eric R.:

      I would be thrilled if I drafted that team

    • Nimrod says:
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      @Eric R.: You drafted a solid team. I did the same thing, really liked my team but was last. the difference between top and bottom was 12 points. Gotta remember they use ESPN ranks.

    • Alky Sobrera says:
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      @Eric R.:

      Only be concerned if you actually win the draft ranking.

    • @Eric R.: my rankings post from earlier this pre-season showed that ESPN pre-season rankings had a negative correlation with final season performance. so it means nothing.

      how many teams in your league? is this roto or H2H?

        • @Eric R.: i like it. how did you get fielder, jones, bruce, and darvish? i wouldn’t worry what espn says.

          • Eric R. says:
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            @Rudy Gamble:
            Thanks for the support. This is why I follow Razzball

            First 4 rounds:
            Round: 1
            (1) Team H – Mike Trout CF
            (2) Team Chase – Miguel Cabrera 3B
            (3) Team Pitman – Paul Goldschmidt 1B
            (4) Team juers – Chris Davis 1B
            (5) Team Nguyen – Clayton Kershaw SP
            (6) Team Powers – Andrew McCutchen CF
            (7) Team Mart – Carlos Gonzalez LF
            (8) Team t – Ryan Braun LF
            (9) Team S – Adrian Beltre 3B
            ** (10) ME- Adam Jones CF

            Round: 2
            ** (11) ME- Prince Fielder 1B
            (12) Team S – Troy Tulowitzki SS
            (13) Team t – Robinson Cano 2B
            (14) Team Mart – Hanley Ramirez SS
            (15) Team Powers – Jacoby Ellsbury CF
            (16) Team Nguyen – Evan Longoria 3B
            (17) Team juers – Edwin Encarnacion 1B
            (18) Team Pitman – Joey Votto 1B
            (19) Team Chase – Carlos Gomez CF
            (20) Team H – Jason Kipnis 2B

            Round: 3
            (21) Team H – Bryce Harper LF
            (22) Team Chase – David Wright 3B
            (23) Team Pitman – Dustin Pedroia 2B
            (24) Team juers – Yasiel Puig RF
            (25) Team Nguyen – Ian Desmond SS
            (26) Team Powers – Freddie Freeman 1B
            (27) Team Mart – Cliff Lee SP
            (28) Team t – Giancarlo Stanton RF
            (29) Team S – Adam Wainwright SP
            ** (30) ME- Jay Bruce RF

            Round: 4
            ** (31) ME- Yu Darvish SP
            (32) Team S – Alex Rios RF
            (33) Team t – Jose Reyes SS
            (34) Team Mart – Ian Kinsler 2B
            (35) Team Powers – Felix Hernandez SP
            (36) Team Nguyen – Max Scherzer SP
            (37) Team juers – Chris Sale SP
            (38) Team Pitman – Justin Upton LF
            (39) Team Chase – Stephen Strasburg SP
            (40) Team H – Jose Bautista RF

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: if it has negative correlation, would that make it a positive to be ranked last? i.e. does it indicate espn rankings vary inversely to actual success?

  27. Bigsmooth says:
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    Got damn this is good shit. Thanks Rudy.

    Looking for some advice drafting in a FBPC 14-team 5×5 Roto league. Standard hitting roster but with 6 SP, 2 RP, 2P. 32 Rounds, no trades. Basically wondering how you would approach filing out your 8 bench spots? My instincts say to load up on pitching but without trades and with such crap left over on waivers it seems smart to target some bats in case of injuries?

    Appreciate any feedback.

    • @Bigsmooth: harder to stream in that format. i’m thinking i’d want 5-6 pitchers and 2-3 hitters on my bench. for bench, i’d consider Justin Morneau or Corey Dickerson of Colorado because they will be nice plays when at home. (assuming this is a weekly roster change league, right?)

      • Bigsmooth says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: We can set rosters twice /week. Thanks!

        • @Bigsmooth: yup, i’d go w/ the above suggestion then. i’d also consider a guy like Quentin who puts up numbers when healthy. he’d be a nice play when @COL or @ARI. lastly, always good to have 1-2 multi-position guys on the team.

  28. Alky Sobrera says:
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    Always appreciate the work Rudy, even if I don’t fully understand it. Thanks for the info. Imo, with regard to sbs and avg., the goals seem particularly hard to meet without sacrificing other cats. Not to mention saves and sbs tend to have greater variance from league to league, at least in my limited experience. I find hard # goals to be somewhat out of reach, and making picks informed by said goals to be detrimental at times. As such, I much prefer your method of adding up $ values and drafting a balanced roto team., that has mroom for more tailored in-season adjustments.

    As per your model, I’m assumjng you use the custom projections you put up, ya?

    Anyway, thanks again for the info!

    • @Alky Sobrera: These are just showing what will likely be 75th percentile. It’s really hard to hit 75th percentile in all 5 categories coming out of the draft. Cool on the $ method I was mentioning. That’s going well for me so far.

      Yes, based on my projections.

      • Alky Sobrera says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:
        Very true. Thanks again.

  29. Heraldo says:
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    Is there a way to convert these projected totals into Dollar Values? So, you could use the Pre-Season rankings (with estimated Dollar values for each category) and aim for Dollar threshold total in Specific Categories (or something along those lines)?
    For example: 75 percentaile is ~$40 for HR’s.
    Or am I mistakingly using incompatible data?

    • @Heraldo: For the $ values, the average should be $26 per category. Since i have it skewed toward hitting, the 50th percentile goals should be about $29 for each hitting category and $21 for each pitching category. The only thing I’ve been seeing is that Save $ seem to be low – I think that’s because I am conservative on Save projections and I account for what will likely be a lot of undrafted Saves. So maybe closer to $15 for average saves.

  30. Matt says:
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    Hey guys I know this is off topic but I was offered a $15 Craig for my $13 Lucroy 6×6 roto keeper league OBP is the 6th cat, our league starts 1 catcher but is required to draft 2 Catchers, 15 man league, what do y’all think?

    • Matt says:
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      @Matt: btw McCann, Rosario, Castro, Santana , Posey are the other kept catchers.

    • matt says:
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      @Matt: I think you should start by changing your name. Im the real Matt and all you other Matt’s are just imitating so will the real Matt plz stand up, plz stand up!
      I just did, now that I got that out of the way. Ditch that donkeycorn catcher and take Allen Craig yo! You’re welcome! Now go change your name!

      • Matt says:
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        @matt: Amusing. You’re really that high on Craig even though he BABIP and RISP average will surely drop?

        • Matt says:
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          @Matt: *his

          • Bi-Felicia says:
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            @Matt: im way higher on pimpjuice (Craig) than a catcher. More AB, Better Avg, Better Counting Stats, same injury risk….Craig is top 75 player while Lucroy…well he’s a catcher LOL

            • Matt says:
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              @Bi-Felicia: You’re right, Craig’s upside is worth overpaying in an auction for say, Perez or Yadi

          • Bi-Felicia says:
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            @Matt: I changed my name so you have permission to use Matt or Matthew from now on :-) But yea…I want Craig in a vacuum for me it’s not even close

            • Matt says:
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              @Bi-Felicia: haha thanks! Yeah it’s an auction keeper league, prices inflate by $5 a year so I knew there was no way I was keeping a $18 Lucroy in 2015

  31. matt says:
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    I’ve never used war room for drafting. And IM THE REAL MATT, not this imposter above me!

  32. Bigsmooth says:
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    Hey Rudy looks like you are in reply mode so wanted to ask you about your Point Share values. Basically, do they aaccount for position scarcity? Is that built in to the values or do I need to do some maths?

    • @Bigsmooth: Yes, i determine the average per position and that’s factored in 75% into a player’s value. The other 25% is the average rostered hitter’s value. I’ve found that’s the best mix. Tempted to go 80/20 but that’s because that’s my preferred meat/fat ratio for hamburgers.

      • Bigsmooth says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Sweet tits. Those values are gold!

  33. Brian England says:
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    How many SP/RP would you draft in a 12 tm H2H Yahoo league with the following criteria?

    C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

    20 IP min weekly & only 5 moves allowed per week

    Thanks Brian

  34. Sean says:
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    I’m in a 10 team, 5X5 roto that uses OBP instead of AVG. Weekly lineup changes with the following lineup. C, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, SS, 5 OF, 2 Utility, and 9 any pitcher slots. There is no games played limit and a minimum of at least 900 IP for the year. There is no max limit for IP. We also carry 6 bench spots. What would be the strategy when drafting starters and releivers. I tend to draft my 1st starter around rounds 6 or 7 and end up with 4 top 40 starters and 2 high upside starters. I also try to get 2 top 15 closers and then draft a third or fourth closer later in the draft. I always grab 2 or 3 stud middle releivers with pot. to close. Also, would you rank Harper of Adam Jones because he has a much better OBP? Is Votto a 1st round pick in this format? Thanks guys!

    • I don’t mind waiting longer for an SP if SPs are being over values. But with 900 IP, an ace would be more valuable.

      I like Votto in this format more than Jones and Harper.

  35. Sean says:
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    To add to my last post, because there is only 10 teams I can propably wait until round 8 to take my 1st starter

  36. Sean says:
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    CORRECTION- would you rank Harper OVER Jones

    • No. I prefer the reliability of jones.

  37. Sean says:
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    Ok thanks Rudy

  38. Mustachioed Man says:
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    Rudy,
    Grey said you have considered doing a write up on consistent vs. inconsistent players. Is this still something you are thinking about doing? It would be very helpful.

    • @Mustachioed Man: I looked at weekly data values for 2010-2012 and found no reliable ‘skill’ for consistency. I do think that SBs – in particular – have a streakiness to it and that’s why I devalue SBs for H2H.

        • I know Tristan at ESPN was tooling around last with something but it didn’t switch my opinion that streakiness isn’t a skill.

          • Mustachioed Man says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: I completely agree that streakiness isn’t a skill. Just something I think people should consider if they are deciding between a couple players that are very similar in a H2H league.

            • If it is not a skill than it can’t be projected and then it can’t be used to decide between players.

              The player pages have monthly $ values. You can check that to see if a player was consistent in 2013.

              • Mustachioed Man says:
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                @Rudy Gamble: That makes sense. I don’t believe you can project consistency/streakiness in players. It would not be something that pertains to every player like the real categories do. I guess my original thought was a list of players who have a history of big highs and lows throughout a season. Not every player would be mentioned, just those who are relevant. I think we were just looking at it from a different viewpoint. You are absolutely correct when you say it is not something which can be projected and ranked and talked about for every single player. Sorry for the confusion

  39. Sean says:
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    When are the player rankings finalized, I’m assuming the last week of March possibly. Will they reflect where guys are hitting in the lineup to start the season , and guys who win starting jobs? Also, will they reflect what teams guys have signed with, Example: Nelson Cruz. Thanks

    • @Sean: We update through opening day. Lineup positions are fluid but I work w/ Steamer to update Plate Appearance and R/RBI results based on notable lineup position shifts vs. 2013 (e.g., Brett Gardner going from 1st to 9th). Team impact is factored into the Steamer data for park factors. Grey will make some adjustments for these changes as well.

  40. Dani says:
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    Are the Steamer rankings your rankings Rudy? Or do you use Grey’s?

    • Steamer is mine. I pay attention to Grey’s as a check and balance and use ADP data as well to determine when is the latest I can take guys

      • Dani says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        What’s the deal with Rosario? 14th overall? lol

        • Aggressive position adjustment?

  41. Sean says:
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    Ok great, thanks

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