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Everybody, and I mean everybody, is super excited to see Trevor Bauer make his rookie debut.  And by rookie debut I mean his 18th rookie debut and by everybody I mean me.  It’s gonna be huge.  Not only is it going to be one of the most dominant starts of the year, but Draftkings is going to totally undervalue him due to his not “super official” former rookie debuts.  So let’s head straight to the value play of Trevor Bauer at Draftkings today… or we can stand here holding ourselves.  As of now, he’s not an option.  So now that I spent my last 3 years waiting to write this post, I’d be remiss if I didn’t say, WTF!?!?!

Good news or bad news?  I knew you’d say bad news first.

The bad news: I don’t have strong recommendations for every position on the field today.

The good news: I’m not going to tell you who to start at every position so you can’t blame me for… EH HEM… you can take some credit for your winnings today.  I got some really strong love for the guys below however.

I shared an artisan, biodynamic, organic, gluten free, local and hand-crafted (the adjectivey way of saying from Portland) cocktail with mis primos  Streamo, Tron and DFSBot last night.  They were lubricated on the booze and shared all their secrets with me.  You should only feel so lucky that they’re exhibitionists so they’ll be sharing with the public for the next 5 months minimum.  After that, you’re on your own for 2014 fantasy baseball.

It’s time to start chasing big money at Draftkings, who are offering free money if you play for real money and more free money if you tell your friends.  Today’s recommendations are based on finding strong value.  Make sure you look at today’s DFSBot to complement the following.  I’m not saying you should do it, but maybe you like free money or you like playing games… I dunno.

Brandon Hicks, 2B/SS: $3,800 – He’s under the Mendoza line, but we’re chasing HRs here.  He’s got 7 on the season, batting in Coors and facing a LHP.

Eric Hosmer, 1B: $3,700 – Hosmer hasn’t been hitting for power, but he’s been hitting.  He’s facing young Adrian Rienzo who has had a rough go vs. LHBs so far.  He costs freaking $3,700!  Other guys at this price include Jordan Pacheco, Adam LaRoche (DL) and Chris Parmelee.

Justin Smoak, 1B $3,800 – Streaming hitters are what’s up in DFS!  Smoak has a 1.583 OPS against Colby Lewis and they’re in Texas.   If you ask an unbiased baseball fan or a Texa0,n it is much better and bigger and deadlier than a matchup in Seattle.  While many states have banned the death penalty, Texas has put in an express line for starting pitchers.  However, if you ask someone from Seattle, they’ll tell you that Texas needs more apps and longer lines for coffee.  Seattle legalized marijuana so now they’re negotiating the life penalty.

Michael Brantley, OF $4,500 – He’s been of exceptional value lately and seems to have these stretches every year.  Yeah he’s looking at Verlander on the hill today, but Brantley is 16-41 lifetime against him and is hitting in the heart of the order.  He’s been hitting 4th most recently and has home runs each of the last two days.

Hunter Pence, OF $4,900 – The usual suspects are in play here.  Coors, check. LHP vs. RHB, check.  He also has the fact that he’s been getting really comfortable in the 2-hole (is anything truly comfortable in the 2 hole?).  He’s also seemingly more comfortable at 2nd base when running bases and Franklin Morales has allowed 85% of base stealers to be successful so far this year.  Pence should see great opportunities to score points today.

Doug Fister, P: $6,800 – I’m putting pitching at the bottom today because the more things stay the same, the more they change.  And the Bauer thing Pissed Meoff—relative to Jack.  Doug is back from his adult film excursion and will resume trying to sneak baseballs past major league hitters.  In the past, he’s been pretty good at this and when he fails they tend to send them right back to him or his teammates.  This price is amazing.  Wish I could have a Double Fister!  I would do stretches first, obviously.

Kevin Correia, P: $5,000 – I love this pick as much as anything I’ve ever written on this site.  Famous last words I’m sure, but really how can you value anyone at the lowest possible pitcher price while they start in Petco against the worst offense in baseball?  Venable is the only guy who has successful history against him and he’s about the coldest hitter on the planet.  If you can find a way to make Correia make sense to your lineup today, do it!!!

If you need to spend some more money on pitching today, target AJ Burnett, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura and Yovani Gallardo.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

BAL @ PIT may see some showers as may DET @ CLE.  NYY @ CHC may also catch some heavenly drizzle.  None of em seem like they’re doomed.  Keep an eye on the weather reports as first pitch approaches.

Doing Lines in Vegas

You want another indication that Fister is an incredible value at $6,800?  No?  Ok….

You can’t take the under on a 6.5 no matter who is pitching.  Take the over on CIN @ WAS 6.5.  One offense has to be able to get it up for this game right???  If not, Fister.

Kevin Correia is pitching in a game that is a total of 7.  Notice a trend? It might be a good day to go big.  Parlay and a 10x multiplier on your radar…

ARZ @ STL, MIL @ ATL and MIN @ SD are all being found at 7 or even 6.5.  I recommend finding reasons to bet the over.  I also recommend not paying 12k for a pitcher today.  There’s lots of value in pitching today.

 

  1. Allan says:
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    Isn’t it more likely that guys like cueto, wainwright, ventura etc. put up as many points as correia and fister combined?

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @Allan: Perhaps. It is also more likely that Buster Posey puts up more points than two bottom of the barrel bats today. You only get so much money. Today, I like to spend on bats.

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @Allan: @Schlurricane: @Allan: Allan, thank you very much for your comment. After giving it more thought I wanted to chime back in. I think you very well could be right. Those guys are expensive for a reason. I’m really trying to show you were to find value over the cost. You wouldn’t need to read an article about how Cueto is better than Correia. But perhaps on a single day’s use when matchups are perfect, you can get some value out of Correia and reap the rewards of the bankroll.

  2. OaktownSteve says:
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    Red hot A’s at slumping Tampa. Good pitchers park and match up for Pommeranz? Rhetorical.

  3. Bye Felicia says:
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    Worse News, He’s facing the Tigers, & Son hates it.

  4. Schlurricane

    Schlurricane says:
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    I know. I hate it too. He’s the abusive old relationship I can’t help going back to over and over.

  5. allen says:
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    My cheap plays tonight….hector sanchez, danny santana (IF he starts) and michael saunders…good luck fellas

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @allen: I like Sanchez but couldn’t stomach stacking the Giants bats to that extent

  6. Jimmy says:
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    Good call on the overs…lots of runs out there tonight! Is this a regular feature? I normally don’t read draft kings as don’t play but will be in vegas soon and need to know if I should be checking Razz for an opinion on the lines :). Thanks!

    • Schlurricane

      Schlurricane says:
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      @Jimmy: yep every single day!

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