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Man, Razzball must really hate Freddie Freeman, eh?  Ehhhh, hate is such a strong word.  Loathe?  Sure.  Despise?  Maybe.  Disgustipated?  Only amongst Tool fans (btw, you guys are awesome.  Love Track #1! *Sniffs fist like Kennedy from MTV*).  I mention the hate because Grey has already notified us that Freddie is, in fact, a Schmohawk this year earlier this morning.  Why pile on, you ask?  Well, telling you someone is overpriced is useful but since that’s covered, how about we look at this from a market exploitation angle now that we know not to buy, eh?  So let’s compare the stats and the relative price differences the market offers to get your pseudo-Freddie freak on.  Here’s a little draft day arbitrage for 2015 Fantasy Baseball.  *Sniffs fist like Kennedy from MTV again for no good reason other than to make you google it*

Exploitable Commodity: Freddie Freeman, Consensus Rank 27

Steamer Projections: 80/24/83/.285/3

Blue Chip Comp: Adrian Gonzalez, Consensus Rank 39

Steamer Projections: 76/24/85/.280/2

Though it’s true you’re not saving much here, you are allowing yourself to wait a full round plus (perhaps more) and get what looks like, apples to apples, the same player.  Obviously, age is on the side of the Freeman owner but on the flipside, Adrian at 32 isn’t ready to be put out to pasture.  Also something to consider: at age 24, A-Gonz hit 24 HRs and then followed with four straight 30+ homerun seasons.  At age 24, Freeman hit only 18 and his career high in HRs to date in a season is 23.  If you’re investing expecting a spike in power from Freeman, you’re better off just going with the tried and true of A-Gonz.

S&P 500 Comp: Joey Votto, Consensus Rank 72

Steamer Projections: 77/19/68/.279/4

Obviously, the further down the comp trail you go, the more risk you take on.  Votto at 31 seems to be ten+ years older than Adrian Gonzalez who’s only a little under two years his senior.  That said, I think there’s plenty of average upside in Votto at this stage.  I wouldn’t be drafting him looking back at his 2010/2011 seasons but a return to 2013 wouldn’t be too crazy.  Given the two offenses involved, I’d bank on Votto having the RBIs closer by the end of the year without much effort but that’s irrelevant: we are looking at two very similar players but one with a bit of a discount discount.

Russell 2000 Comp: Eric Hosmer, Consensus Rank 132

Steamer Projections: 75/18/76/.278/8

We’re now 100 spots removed from where you could’ve drafted Freddie so obviously the comps get a little weaker the further we slip.  That said, other than obvious power downside with drafting Hosmer, we’re looking at two 25 year old 1st basemen who were considered high end prospects within their respective organizations and have close to the same amount of service time in the major leagues.  This comp obviously has its warts but when weighing in steals upside and near identical counting stat expectations between the two, we’re not looking at a solid argument for drafting Freeman near the first two rounds.

Pink Sheets Comp: Billy Butler, Consensus Rank 229

Steamer Projections: 71/15/74/.273/1

Mmm, country breakfast with a side of moobs, please!  Butler has under his belt two seasons in which he has hit 20+ HRs and one in which he hit 19 so it’s not unfair to say he could bring the power numbers back with a change of scenery in Oakland.  When comping Butler to Freeman, we have to realize Butler between the ages 23 and 26 had HR seasons of 21/15/19/29 before being declared a player who lacked power.  Freeman has had a declining ISO for three straight seasons after spiking up to .196 in 2012.  Steamer predicts a return to that level this year and actually a career high in HRs.  I’m not one to argue with the Matrix but the reality is a decline in power at a young age has happened before to players when we expected the opposite and it can happen again.

  1. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    couldn’t agree more. where are you getting the ‘consensus rank’?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @simply fred: Thanks Simply Fred, using fantasy pros. Felt it was more accurate to deal in rankings rather than NFBC draft info, personally.

  2. J_FOH says:
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    I just touched both my nipples….twice. great stuff, where is Belt in here? Mornope?

    February 18th will be Freddy got Fingers Pointed at Him day

    Is it wrong to tweet both FFOR (Freddy freeman Over Rated) posts to the guy who drafted him in the 2nd round of our slow draft?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @J_FOH: I didn’t look at Belt, I was looking for comps in terms of draft depth. I’d guess near Hosmer.

      You can tweet anything you want. If you’d rather make friends, you should probably just retweet Chelsea Handler’s thank you to twitter.

      • J_FOH says:
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        @Sky: hahaha, I’m kidding, but I might tweet its freddy freeman day at razzball

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @J_FOH: Freddie really did get fingered by us today.

          • J_FOH says:
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            @Sky: thats not the wrong hole

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Daddy would you like some sausage?

              • J_FOH says:
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                @Sky: only if its your moms

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  You want my mom’s sausage? So much Freudianism here, not sure where to start.

                  • J_FOH says:
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                    @Sky: wait! what? i thought this was a funny dialog thing…I’m a falstaff whether I mean it or not *slips in horse poop*

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Normally I’d tell you to get up but this time Imma tell you to stay down for a bit.

  3. Mike says:
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    Gonzalez is in a better line up and had over 100 rbi’s last year. Gonzalez would be my choice over Freeman.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Mike: Yeah, just representing a sliding scale.

  4. Great White North says:
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    If this keeps up, Freddie is going to be a bargain.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Great White North: He’d have to slip lower than Adrian Gonzalez on the draft board to make that happen. Not sure we’re gonna see it.

  5. Mes to the Rocco says:
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    I love watching people draft Freddie too high every year. Woulda been me if it wasn’t for you. That sounds a lot like some Chris Carrabba break-up song!

    Where would you be happy drafting vottomatic?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Mes to the Rocco: HA!

      Where Votto is going is alright by me. Getting treated moreso like a CI than a 1B. I’m not head over heals for him but I could stomach that price for a CI if I didn’t have later targets for the position.

  6. Kid A says:
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    February 18, 2015: Freddie Freeman take-down day.

    Nice write up Sky. Solid as always.

    Speaking of solid, I posted this in the FCL:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU9xz2FpQc0

    Sharing is caring.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Kid A: The story of a HOF shitting himself never gets old. Should be rewatched every spring just like Bull Durham.

      Appreciate the love, Kid A. Both in the shit sharing and in the post thumbs up.

      • J_FOH says:
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        @Sky: and yet you play in zero leagues with him….for shame

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          And some people think playing in 20 leagues is enjoyable…for shame.

          • J_FOH says:
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            @Sky: 20? sheesh, be a little dramatic why don’t you. If you can’t harass your friends then who can you harass? strangers? that gets you probation and I’m not doing that again.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              How many are you in? How many do you plan on being in? Inquiring minds over here.

              • J_FOH says:
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                @Sky: 5 as of now, up to 12ish max. I mean I am the RCL weekly update desk here so I need to be in the mix

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  It’s cool being in the mix. I like Screwdrivers, you like Adios MotherF@#$ers.

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Sky: adios is a blue drink. Shots fired *draws line in sand*

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Whatchoo got against blue?

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Sky: drinks that come in blue are for girls, also green, red, and some shades of orange

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      So many restrictions and yet neither pink nor purple on the list…THAT’s weird…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Sky: pink is an unsaid given and purple was omission on my end. Excuse me!

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      So basically unless its white, black, grey or brown, it’s a no go. So beer.

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Sky: Beer, whiskey, scotch, tequila, vodka and more beer

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      @J-FOH: Well I guess you and I aren’t going out for Appletinis. That’s Grey night then!

  7. Regan says:
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    I’ll take the Hoss and Belt for my CI spots thank you.

    • J_FOH says:
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      @Regan: and freeman at first?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Reasonable gets there

  8. Clint says:
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    Where does Chris Davis rank in the “Freddie Freeman Got Fingered by Razzball” ranks? I can jettison the former for the latter if you think he’s going to top Drop Dead Fred as a h2h keeper.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Haha, I was looking more for straight comp; not really the same conversation. Davis is a very different player than this conversation (power bat with major average downside risk). I’d rather have Davis simply because power is down around the league.

  9. Grant says:
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    I saw the title and my first thought was your exact first sentence. Good stuff, even though as I know already, we have a hardcore braves fan in my league so he will probably end up with Freeman, may even be his keeper. But I have him crossed off my sheet already.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Ha, yeah it’s funny. I caught wind that he was doing the Schmohawk post just as I was deliberating about this piece. Didn’t know they were gonna be the same day going out until this week.

      He really is a good player but for fantasy purposes, he’s just going too high. Should really be closer to Adrian Gonzalez, maybe lower given what seems like a capped power ceiling.

  10. papasmurf says:
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    Maybe this year is finally the year Hosmer breaks out, but right now he’s basically James Loney with a sexier name.

    As for Freeman, I don’t even know who else is in the ATL lineup except for Blowjob Upton and Simmons.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, it’s hard to say if/when Hosmer will break out but I will say it’s funny you mention Loney considering his 29.8% LD rate in 2013 and Freeman’s 31% in 2014. Not to mention their near similar FB% rate. But anywho, obviously Freeman is ‘better’ than both of these players but the argument he’s that much better is questionable.

  11. Schwab says:
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    Hey Sky,
    A keeper question. 8 Teams H2H points league. Can keep players for as long as you want. Each team keeps 15 players. Would you trade Hosmer, Cueto & Kluber for Goldy, Latos and his 1st round pick(2nd overall)?
    Thanks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      If everyone can keep 15 players apiece, your first pick is more than likely not even a top 100 player. As much as I like Goldy, I think you’re giving up too much there. Though I don’t play points leagues, it’s my understanding pitching kinda dominates, no?

      • Schwab says:
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        In this league, its set-up where the hitters and pitchers are pretty equal. That 1st pick I’d have Wainwright, Carrasco available.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Interesting…I’d do it and take Carrasco but I realize it’s a risk.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Haha, sweet!

  12. Fungazi says:
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    Here’s a nice shmo for u – Hunter Pence

    • Fungazi says:
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      @Fungazi:

      Pence rnk 37 – 73-18-71-5-.268
      Garcia rnk 228 66-20-73-6-.263

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Fungazi: Well I don’t write the schmo posts but I’ll look into it. I’ll try and get a few more in before everything is all done.

  13. Stink says:
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    With regards to Freeman. Is he a keeper in a 8 Team NL Only league? I am keeping Braun, Kimbrel, C. Gomez, J. Segura for steals and J. Cueto. Do I keep Freeman with my last keeper pick knowing that the other top 1B are probably being kept as well?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Stink: Keeper and an NL one to boot is a different game entirely. You’re fine keeping him there.

  14. J-FOH says:
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  15. J-FOH says:
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    still trying to figure out this embed thing

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @J-FOH: image or youtube? Youtube gives you the code for embed under the share option.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Sky: I know but when I put it in it doesnt work, the comment is just blank…oh and unrelated question. why do I watch bring it on every time its one?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          1. Eliza Kushdu

          2. Sparky Polastri

          • J_FOH says:
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            @Sky: oh there are more than 2 reasons

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Gabrielle Union? Sorta 3, she was barely in it.

              • J_FOH says:
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                @Sky: those east compton girls can drive by me anytime

  16. Al Lydon says:
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    Well done and point made over the internet friend !!!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Al Lydon: Thanks over the internet Al Lydon!

  17. Long Bawls says:
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    I think that 1 predicted steal for Butler might be an overstatement, unless MLB starts counting “our hearts” as a stat line.

    Very excited to see my loves of low finance and fantasy baseball converging! I will no longer fear the singularity.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Long Bawls: Ha! Butler’s steal will be when 2nd and SS don’t call time out and are talking in the middle of the field with the catcher still having the ball. Don’t think there is any other way.

      I do pretty basic investing myself. It’s the part of my brain that appreciates fantasy baseball. I mean, what is scanning BABIPs in early May to see overperformance and underperformance and moving accordingly other than trying to notice trends in 200 day and 50 day EMA?

      • Long Bawls says:
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        @Sky: Exactly! If only it were as easy to win the stock market…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Long Bawls: Ooph, don’t I know it. Still kicking myself for not putting in more back in 2007/8. Bought and sold Apple/Netflix shares then! Holding my breath for the next pullback but I’ve been missing the boat for a couple of years now. Thought we would’ve seen one by now.

  18. Ante GALIC says:
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    Sky!

    Nice write-up, man! Good insight again. Am asking everyone…Have Jansen in my very shallow, seasonal, re-draft H2H points league; so…would you…

    A. Wait with him until the start of the season and hope he can make it back by April 5?

    B. Drop Rusney Castillo (my worst bat) to pick up one of…
    1. Rondon (worried about Motte finding his velocity again);
    2. Feliz;
    3. Casilla (will he lose the closer job again!);
    4. Broxton;
    5. Pomeranz?

    C. Drop Liriano or Salazar to pick up one of the aforementioned pitchers?

    D. Do nothing until Jansen comes back and take a ‘0’ for prolly two weeks?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      You’ve already drafted? Do you not have a DL spot?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @J_FOH: Seen it already but never hurts to revisit. Those kids are off to a great start.

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