Well technically since the post, his average has dropped from .271 to .260 since i wrote this post.

I still dont think he hits over .250. The under 10 HRs is in jeopardy, but he still has a 10.9% line drive rate. I maintain that his average will make his power useless. I would rather have someone like Mark Trumbo

Of the three, I like Moreland the most. Steady guy with decent pop, average and counting numbers.

Trumbo looks like a legit 25+ HR guy, but his average will suffer. But if its power you need, Trumbo’s your guy.

As for ROY: Britton seems to be the leader and I’d bet on Belt in the NL.

The good thing is that I went ahead and scooped up all of the best 1B rookies (imo), including Moreland and Trumbo (LaPorta has been calling out).

I guess the question is who among these mashers will a) give me the most power, b) end up with the best overall numbers and c) on a semi-unrelated note, who do you think the front-runners for AL and NL ROY are so far?

I’m pretty interested in anyone’s thoughts on this. Maybe I’m just dull, or simply that desperate for potential power, but I’m hoping that at least one of these guys will pan out. Thanks.

So when ya’ll say, “this is what else I saw in fantasy baseball yesterday”, how come nobody is seeing what Mike Stanton has been doing? Last mention of him was May 5th. A .390 avg and 6 HR in his past 14?!?! Poppycock I say!! On another note, these are great reads every single day thanks for the entertainment. The e-book was awesome too. Well done.

Player name, GB%, AVG, AVG Rank, R/L/S

Joe Mauer, 48.4%, .338, 1, L
Ichiro Suzuki, 57.3%, .321, 3, L
Christian Guzman, 53.1%, .292, 27, S
Carl Crawford, 49.6%, .290, 31, L

Glad you remember me and hope you like my work

All please excuse the tardiness of my replys and a few typos here and there. I am traveling

Still like belt more for this year but a lot depends on the call up

I’d say that those guys are more the exception than the rule.

The guys you listed are not only faster than Smoak, but most of them are RHBs, which DOES make a difference. Smoak gets a majority of PAs from the left side, and you’re just not going to hit for a high average if you’re hitting GBs 50% of the time, with a majority of GBs going to 1B-2B area.

Not only that, but I’d hardly call Delmon Young, Denard Span, Yunel Escobar et al. “elite average sources.” They’re around .285-.290 — which is decent — but certainly not “elite.”

Now, if you can find a SHB or LHP who hits around 50% GB AND hits for an “elite average,” I’ll be impressed.

Do you think that would be good value even with Dunn putting up a lot of nothing? I agree with your Smoak outlook so I don’t want him causing a big hole in my lineup. Otherwise I could just ditch Smoak for a FA like Morse, Moreland, or even Belt if he gets into the lineup regularly and doesn’t have the same early season struggles.

“Deep fly ball to right… will it stay fair?…. Yes!… Justin Smoak’s the Pesky Pole!!”

Completely agree – dead on analysis

You are entirely correct and I kind of oversimplified the problem with groundballs and tacked on the average portion. With high GBs comes a high variance on BABIP.

Smoak can maintain this but it is extremely unlikely given his speed and history at the plate to date. But simply saying high gb% cannot equal a high average was taking a shortcut – thanks for clarifying for others

“The scariest thing about Smoak is his 49% ground ball rate. A guy hitting that many balls on the ground is not an elite power or average source.”

Guys with GB rates over 49% since 2008 include:

Ichiro Suzuki
Starlin Castro
Yunel Escobar
Delmon Young
Denard Span

All of these guys have provided near-elite averages for at least two of the past 3+ years. GBs have a higher batting average on balls in play than fly balls, so it’s definitely possible to have both high GB% and high AVG. The main difference between these guys and Smoak is that they’re all a lot faster than he is, so your main point still stands. But it’s not as simple as saying that high GB% = low AVG.