The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. Today, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. You know, the losers that should be winners. The Jon Cryer’s. Or is he just a loser? How about these guys are the Ronald Miller’s? They’re going to go from total geek to total chic. These pitchers are either not leaving men on base at a normal rate and/or they’re giving up hits like there’s 7 Pat Burrells behind them. They couldn’t get lucky with a bottle of Rumplemintz and Lindsay Lohan. But that could all change. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Gavin Floyd – 2.03. This list always makes me nervous. Floyd should be better, but you need alligator blood to trust him.
Jake Peavy – 1.63. Ugh, these guys aren’t easy to buy into, are they? Yes, Peavy should be better, but only in the mid to low 4′s. It’s like when your girlfriend pees the bed and you’re like “Well, at least it wasn’t number two!” Unless you’re, of course, into those sorta things.
Dan Haren – 1.53. Just went over why I think he should be better in my Haren bounce back post.
Brandon Morrow – 1.46. Also, Morrow’s rocking a 10+ K/9. Get on the bus!
Edwin Jackson – 1.36. Could be a bumpy road back to a 4+ ERA, but he should get there.
Randy Wells – 1.26. Wells also has the 2nd lowest BB/9 on the list (after Haren). Hard to stay randy on Wells with the way he’s been pitching, but he really should be better.
Joel Pineiro – 1.25. – Forget it, his K/9 is too blehtastic.
Aaron Harang – 1.17. – His ERA’s at 5.17 and he has the 3rd best BB/9 on this entire list. I don’t think he gets his ERA below a 4, but he’s should lower it a run to three-quarters of a run.
Kevin Correia – 1.05. – Has a 7+ K/9 and an under 4 ERA at home. He’s not much more than a hodgepadre, but you knew that already unless you are so 2000 and late.
Justin Masterson – 0.86 I will say that he still tempts me with his K/9, but you gotta pass because of his BB/9. He’s like a Jamaican (he was born there) Manny Parra. Or Monny Parra.