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Since I like to scour possible discounts for all positions and not just catcher like I did with my J.P. Arencibia fantasy, we’re here to take a look at shortstop and a man we call Jed LowrieWhen you do a Google search for Jed, the typical suggestions are ‘Jed Lowrie injury’, ‘Jed Lowrie injury history’, ‘Jed Lowrie surrounded by flowers in hospital bed’, and ‘Jed Lowrie is dead but is still SS eligible so there’s some value to be had here.’  And even after you hit search, Google says ‘Did You Mean Brett Lawrie?  He’s a lot better, you should really go look at him.’  I can’t really argue with Google in either case, really.  Word in Hollywood right now is M. Night Shyamalan is doing sequels to all of his successful movies but can’t get Sam L. back to play Mr. Glass and Lowrie is in deep contractual discussions to fill in for ‘Unbreakable 2: Yippy-Kai-Yay, Bruce Willis Jumped The Shark With A Good Day To Die Hard.’  That long-winded sentence is yet another way of me saying ‘Yes, we know Lowrie is injury-prone.’  But of course, that’s not my question.  My question is – even with that injury history – is his current ADP of 278 justifiable or is there a discount in the works at a talent thin position?  Let’s get to the things that I’ll call ‘facts’ to back up my argument which are actually just more Google and movie references to find out…

Alright, I need a showing of hands.  Who out there likes home runs?  Wow, from the 5 people reading this, 75% of you like home runs.  That’s awesome.  (I’m counting the guy who was just stretching as a 3/4 vote.)  Obviously, power is a commodity that is sought after all over the world.  I mean, countries go to war over that shizz so why are we letting a shortstop who hit 16 home runs in 97 games last year slide outside the top 20 shortstops for ADP?  It’s cuz he only played 97 games last year due to health reasons, genius!  Ah, thanks for noticing my fine intellect, person who communicates to me in italics that is not Grey’s random italicized voice in the slightest.  Also, we’ve covered that he’s injury prone so get over it.  Troy Tulowitzki is injury prone.  Jose Reyes is injury prone.  All of the top 20 shortstops for 2013 fantasy baseball are injury prone!  Jed carries zero risk and much reward.  Ian Desmond led all shortstops in home runs last year with 25 and did that in 513 at-bats.  If Jed kept the same pace he had prior to injury and had the same amount of at-bats, he would’ve given you…wait for it…no seriously wait, it’s the suspense that makes most events in life worth enjoying…at least that’s what I learned from reading that Tantric book…where was I?  Oh right, with 513 at-bats, Jed would’ve finished with 24 homeruns.  So in conclusion, Jed does deserve a discount due to the injury history, but this much of one?  Not in my mind.  My suggested course of action: in 12 team leagues, go ahead and draft as you would’ve had you not read this article but put Jed on your watch list.  Then when Alexei Ramirez fails you – AGAIN – you have yourself a .260, 25 HR safety net that’s woven from paper older than what the constitution was written on.  Yes, we’re going to end this just how it began: with an injury-prone reference.  Just in case you didn’t get it the first time.

  1. Raftman says:
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    Nice write up, Sky. It makes me feel a little better having him as my SS (with Dee Gordon on the bench and Profar in the Minors) in my Dynasty League.
    Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That’s a fine looking SS set up for dynasty, no need to thank me. You can thank yourself! And no prob, glad you liked the writeup!

  2. royce! says:
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    Shizz, if you get lucky, someone will have dropped Alexei Ramirez by the time that Lowrie gets injured, and then you can pick him up for his good, warm months (July and August, the only time he seems to be worth rostering). In one RCL, I grabbed Alexei off waivers in mid-June, and over the 339 AB I played him, he batted .298 with 8 HR, 12 SB, and 48 RBI. Hot damn! I just realized that, per AB, he was a lot more valuable than stupid Andrus.

    Hilarious Google search results, btw.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Unless you get a stud, it’s hard to really sit on SS over the course of the year anyways. It’s why I’ll chase power late on it if its available.

      Not a bad strategy, RE: Ramirez. Of course, it’s about the other team still paying enough attention to drop him for you but I still like it

  3. james d says:
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    A SS sleeper post on the same day as Grey’s top 20 SS? Well timed, I assume intentionally so.

    Anyway I’m also a big fan of Lowrie this year if only because in your standard Y! 12man league with no MI, SS is stupid deep in terms of possible bros. I assume that at least one or two of the SS ranked outside the top 10 will finish inside the top 5 this year, big question is which one(s). I like taking Lowrie (or someone else similarly cheap) because it makes it a lot easier to cut bait when it becomes clear who will be the cheapoid stud this year.

    I’m unsure Lowrie’s the most likely candidate to be the breakout bro, but it’s frankly not super relevant. Grab someone cheap and replace him as the season goes on rather than grabbing someone more expensive and feeling bad about wasting value by benching him for a hot wire guy such that you avoid picking up the ultimately better hitter.

    It’s how I run C normally. Likely how I’ll run SS this year, and potentially 3b as well. We will seeeeeee

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Shhhh, don’t let everyone in on the secret…we’re a well organized fantasy militia over here!

      Agreed re:SS. I said it last year and I’ll say it again, if you don’t have a top 3 guy, you can hit the snooze bar onto about 12-14 and still see similar enough production that its not worth really freaking about come draft day. Lowrie is the power upside play at SS this year whereas most of the other SS sleepers are SB and nothing else. Given how its hard to find power on waivers compared to steals, I like him the most as a bust out candidate.

      Good luck this year!

  4. Stooler says:
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    I may be taking Jed late just cuz… Cuz I’ll have a Jed on my team. That doesn’t happen very often.
    I had Jed two years back but traded him when he was hot. I lost track of him last year. It looks as if he’ll be one I’m going after again this year. I just can’t get my mind around having to draft any of these SS. It’s depressing.
    Last year I went C in the last round and ended up getting the third best production. That may be SS this time.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Haha gotta love having a Jed on your team.

      I agree with you on SS. Outside top 3, I’ll wait and take upside thank you very much

  5. griff says:
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    Sky,
    I’m in a 12 team dynasty roto league. I have manny machado, Prado, and Jedd Gyorko who can play 3b. I also have Mike Moustakas. My issue is 2b. I have Prado who will be eligible to play there this year and maybe Gyorko for the short term. Emilio Bonifacio is available in our draft in March. Would you drop Moustakas to get Bonifacio?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’d want one more year of Moustakas there. Don’t know if I trust Machado 100% yet.

      Just so I’m reading you correctly, you saying Prado is 2B eligible right? I’d just roll with him and hope either Everth or Forsythe stumble out of the gates and give Gyerko a shot

  6. steve b says:
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    I’ve been waiting on SS until real late in mock drafts and taking Lawrie a lot or 35 stolen bases SS E . Cabrera .20th to 21st round avg.

    rteh

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I like both plays. Not entirely sold on Everth, though. I’ve enjoyed the ride in deeper leagues in 2010 and 2012. I also got the shaft from him in 2011. Just not a key enough part of his team, he could be on the bench in a month but if he’s going cheap, no reason not to check in on him.

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