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Greatings once again everyone.  It is I, Sky from Razzball fantasy football to try and mess up your 2013 fantasy baseball season before it even starts.  Wait, I’m here to help…yeah, that’s it.  Before you scoff at seeing Dan Uggla, I would like to let you know I’ve come from the future and I’ve seen some amazing things.  In this far off dystopian future, I see people drafting Uggla within the first 5 rounds of the draft and being forever butthurt about it for years to come.  And in this same macabre, twisted forthcoming destiny I see Aaron Hill being the second best second baseman (say that 20 times fast) on the season when he went undrafted in most leagues.  Behold, my tool from which I foretold the future: The Razzball Fantasy Baseball Player Rater!  *Reads email from Grey*  Well this is awkward.  I’ve just been informed that link guides us back to 2012 information which is only the future if you went into a coma in 2011 and just came out of it.  Now you are going to ask ‘What was the point of this nonsensical romp into the cavernous wastelands of your imagination, Sky?’  You see, I’m here to tell a tale of possible ADP redemption that has already once been told by looking back at our dear sweet FA darling Hill to gauge just whether or not Uggla is a bargain for 2013 fantasy baseball.  To the stat-mobile!

The best way to talk about Uggla for 2013 is to not talk about Uggla for 2013.  Rather, let’s talk about Hill from 2009 on.  Yeah, that makes sense.  Aaron Hill had an out of nowhere season in 2009: 36 HRs (doubling his previous career high of 17), 108 RBIs and 103 runs to go with a .286 average.  He followed it up with a .205 average, 26 HRs and plenty of newfound emo kids as his owners started cutting themselves just to feel something again.  Flashforward to a 2011 trade to the D-backs, Hill started to right the ship in the second half and rounded it out with a 2012 season that ended up being the second best season of his career.  All this to say, I can’t show you any real stats that explains how or why Hill righted the ship and I’m not going to pretend to do that with Uggla.  I’d be lying if I said any different.  However, has a guy like Hill really earned that much more trust to the tune of over 100 draft spots difference?  You know, the guy with an 84/11/77/8 slash line per 162 games to go with a .272 career average.  Me personally, I’ll take the 99/31/92/3 line with a career .253 average instead and I’ll do it much later.  In conclusion, I understand your fears Razzball readers.  Dan has seemingly fallen off the map.  But for what you have to pay for him, drafting this Uggla duckling might gain you a beautiful swan of Natalie Portman proportions.  Minus the messy transformation part…I hope.

From Around The Web

  1. royce! says:
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    I traded Steve for Uggla late last season in the RCL…gave him McCann, so it was kinda like becoming blood brothers but instead of blood it was crap.

    So where would you feel comfortable drafting Uggla? I see that he’s going somewhere around 200, and I would take that, but his ADP from three “expert drafts” on MDC is around 100.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @royce!: Ha, you might want to check the stool sample. Might’ve been a little blood mixed in there…

      Just looked at that. WIth only 3 of them, one was at 215 and the high was 54. The person who did the 54 was high and decidedly an expert in name only. Maybe it was Matthew Berry? In either case, he’s going outside the top 12 2Bs which automatically means he’ll be a bit of an afterthought come draft day. It’ll probably be the last year I’m interested in him, truth be told, but for where I think he’ll go (10th is the highest I’ll take him but I’m pretty sure I won’t have to) it’s worth the gamble for 30 HRs from 2B.

      • royce! says:
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        @Sky: Re: Berry- HA! Yeah that’s insane, and definitely responsible for the skewed ADP. In the normal drafts, he’s going 15th, and I would definitely take a flyer on that…the players going after him all risk being dropped within the first few weeks, so if Uggla craps the bed again, he shouldn’t be too hard to replace, and his upside is so much higher than any of the guys going after him.

        In one RCL, I punted 2B, and ended up cycling through a bunch of schomos (Walker, Ackley, Beckham, Forsythe, Espinosa, Jemile Weeks, Solano, and Murphy, to name more than a few) and it didn’t really hurt me overall. Well, to be fair, it severely cut into my free time, but if I cared about that, I wouldn’t be playing FBB.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @royce!: Exactly. Once you get outside the top 12 for an IF position, you turn into a 12th to 15th round pick. For me, many times my evaluations come from playing in my keeper league where we start 2 at every IF position so I’m always scouring to see if I can avoid top shelf pricing for mediocre numbers. Beckham/Uggla/Ackley and maybe Scott Sizemore (yeah, it’s deep) are on my radar this year.

          Yeah, free time leads to idle hands and idle hands are the devil’s playpen. That’s what I tell my friends when they ask why I stayed up until 12 on a Wednesday night to make a roster move for starting pitching on Friday.

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
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            @Sky: Gordan Beckham, translated in Japanese, is ‘seppuku’.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              @jaywrong: Unfortunately, Aaron Hill translates to bukkake.

              • Jay

                jaywrong says:
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                @Sky: HILKKAKE!

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  @jaywrong: Ha, exactly! Don’t want that all over your team. Or maybe you do. It comes down to personal preference of degradation.

  2. TheNewGuy says:
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    C’mon sky wheres all the HR/FB analysis etc that us Razzheads all love! Just saying that he’s more reliable than Aaron Hill? I’m with you there but that’s kinda weak evidence man if that’s all it is, you’re usually better than this.

    Why Uggla turned Uggl(y) last year would be more useful to know really. Did he start hitting less fly-balls, K rate skyrocketed?

    If we know that then we can tell whether he’s worth another gamble come draft day, for all we know right now he might really be done for good.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Wait, how does the knew guy know what Razzball does! The evidence for whether or not Uggla is coming at a discount comes strictly from the fact that we’re saying Aaron Hill IS reliable – not that Uggla is – by way of how ADP is shaking out.

      I didn’t bring up the underlying stats because Uggla’s are still in line with his career norms except for an unexpected/explained drop in HR/FB% and his IFFB% spiked to 16.9% last season, up from the previous career high set in 2011 with 11.9%. Overall, though, Dan’s probably been pressing the last two years with the contract. That’s how i read those IFFB% because nothing else has really changed so in terms of skillset and whether or not he’s done, I don’t see that as a reason.

      But after reading that last paragraph, I fell asleep, hence why I didn’t go into extreme detail. Aaron Hill is a solid guy and I don’t think he’s going to be worthless but when you consider career history, Uggla’s has been more reliable than Hill but people are going to pay for Aaron’s 2012 and completely ignore Uggla’s 2006-2011.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Sky:
        Fair enough man, nice comeback there. Yeah does seem a strange one then with the big increase in pop-ups, don’t think it’s age if he’s not striking out more etc. And he’s only 33 anyway…sounds like he’s just been unlucky last year.

        Tough place to his Braves stadium but so was Marlins field and he managed his 30 jacks there. So should make a comeback this year, you’ve convinced me.

        And my name is actually Dan too, but when you come on here you get a name and gotta stick to it really no choice!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @TheNewGuy: Nice ta meetcha, Dan! You’re right, it could be age. He could be just missing what he used to hit out of the park, hence that IFFB% spike. But I really think it’s the pressure. For a good example – and this is fun – let’s look back at Aaron Hill after his monstrous 36 HR season in 2009. Now his IFFB% actually dropped by 6% in 2010 for him but his LD% also dropped 9% points and his FB% rose 13%. So basically, he was trying to be a HR hitter when in reality he had a hot year and it got into his head. Took trading him to another team for someone to be able to get his head back straight. Can’t promise that Uggla completely returns to form but in the end, you don’t have to pay much to find out about a previous 30HR hitter and I like that as an option.

  3. Czernobog says:
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    It’s more a question of whether Uggla turns into a beautiful swan of David Ortiz proportions, or finishes turning into an ugly duckling of Travis Hafner proportions. Does he fall off a cliff and bounce, or does he splatter?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Czernobog: Hafner’s shoulder issue laid him to rest a long time ago but I get what you’re saying. The end all be all is this: his discount is worth the checkin to see if there’s another 30 HR season in him and is no more of a risk than some of the top 10 in the 2B position.

  4. DansUggla says:
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    Just wanted to drop by and show some appreciation for the article you wrote about Dan. I am hoping to grab him in a long running $260 keeper league for around $6-10 ( I spent more on Logan Morrison and Colby Rasmus in 2011). Uggla went for $22 last year… I will spend the $8 on Dan and use the other $14 to grab Frazier and Ben Revere. Ask me why I chose Revere and I ask your mother out for dinner and never call her again.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Ha no prob and no questions here. Hope you get all three, would all be solid buys

  5. TheOne says:
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    Terrible article

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thank you for this extremely thoughtful and poignant drive-by comment.

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