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So now that we have some player rankings from the big guys over at Yahoo and ESPN finally out, I get to delve a bit harder into the bargain bin to see if we can find, and it brings up an interesting name: Chris Carter.  No, not that Cris Carter.  That’s football silly!  Of course, I can understand your confusion seeing as I’m the main writer for Razzball Fantasy Football, but you’re not here for my shameless self-promoting, you’re here for some fantasy baseball knowledge.  So let’s take a look at Carter and his current 364 rank at Yahoo to see if we have a discount on our hands for 2013 fantasy baseball…

In order to review this Chris, I’d like to review another Chris.  This Chris is of the Davis variety and I told you a bit about him last year in my Deep League Thoughts post for 1st basemen.  Now just read all of that about Davis and pretend I said it about Carter.  Boom!  Analysis done…good night folks!  Ok, I’m only half kidding.  Really, Carter has almost the same flaws that had held Davis back from success in the past, and I won’t be the first one to tell you Davis got really lucky with an average above .250 in 2012.   As I said in that deep league thoughts blurb ‘Look for 25 HRs, a crap-ton of K’s and don’t expect an average above .250′.  I think I can say the same thing about Carter if he’s given a starting job and runs with it in 2013.  The one thing he does do a bit better than Davis is take a walk as his career 12.5% BB rate shows, but the reality is there were 5 guys last year who met the minimum qualifying PA to count who had over a 30% strikeout rate.  Of them, only Davis had an average above .250, so Carter’s career 32.3% K-rate is surely going dip your AVG.  The plus side to this average issue?  Of those 5 guys I’m referring to, 3 of them hit 30 or more home runs.  I don’t know if you know this or not, but HRs are kind of a big deal.  Like, no one hits them anymore.  Fun fact, there were only 26 guys with 30 or more HRs last year.  If that sounds silly and arbitrary to point out, zoom back to 2001 when there were 40 guys who did it and most of them with an * next to their name.  YOU know what I’m sayin…so in reviewing Carter’s current low asking price in drafts, he’s well worth the ticket to see if you can cash in on some late round power.  At worst, he scores you a few touchdowns and reminds you of Chris Berman…wait, what?

  1. Jay says:
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    You think Carter would be a decent late round sleeper in an OBP league?

    • Donny Two Trips says:
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      @Jay: No

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Jay: I’ll have to counter Donny Two Trips there. Career 12.5% walk rate and he was at 15% last year. He’s much less of a risk in OBP leagues than he is in regular leagues. I’ll take him with the opportunity for 25-30 HRs for his going price.

      • Jay says:
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        @Sky: Exactly my thoughts, but what do I know?

        Joey Two Times over here should justify his reasoning instead of posting a simple NO, capeesh!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          But ‘no’ is such hard-hitting, instant analysis, Jay!

  2. James says:
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    once you add in the obp part, you are looking closer to a league average obp (330 sounds about right for him, maybe uspide is 350), again not many power hitters can do that, and carter has always been known as a masher (i owned him as a prospect 2-3 years ago with oakland in a few dynasties)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @James: Exactly. I’ll take a flier on a .211 ISO guy where he’s going any day. Power doesn’t grow on trees.

  3. Hotrod says:
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    Keeper league – Allowed to keep 6, must keep 4

    my 5 & 6 keepers are Lawrie & Hosmer

    Trade Lawrie & Hosmer for Craig & Gio? Im intrigued, as this would give me more power RBI’s from 1B & allow me to pair Gio w Strasburg….

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Hotrod: Craig is one sneeze away from going on the 60 Day DL. I like Gio but if you already have Stras, stay with your rookies.

  4. KeeperQ says:
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    Cano & 96th overall pick for Kipnis, Agon & 85th overall pick. Which side won the trade?

    12 team league up to 7 keepers, no minimum.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @KeeperQ: I’d prefer the Cano side. Don’t have much faith in Agon

  5. MessyF says:
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    16-team OPS keeper league.
    I need to decide whether to keep
    Aoki@1
    Salvador Perez@1

    Both will inflate by 10 every season after this…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @MessyF: Like Salvador’s upside at a thin position. I’ll take him.

  6. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    I want to believe.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Well the good thing is you don’t have to. Late round flier that can go out with the trash after a few weeks if it doesn’t pan out. Probably what most last picks in the draft are anyways.

      • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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        @Sky: Google “The X-Files poster Chris Carter” to see what I did above.

        As for the player, I would draft him and have touted him a tad in other Razzball posts. I think 25-32 home runs in within reason.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ha, nice! I’ll have to suggest Grey use that in a future post…

          Totally with you. I was really sad when he didn’t get a shot in Oakland for more PT but he proved in his small stint there he deserves a shot to prove it. 25-32 is exactly what I was thinking. Power’s always been there, but playing time just hasn’t been.

          • Steve Stevenson says:
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            @Sky: @Sky: That park is nice for him too. He was good for me in a deep OPS league last year. I’m buying.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Yeah, I had him in my deep keeper OBP league along with Moss last year. Was pretty sweet getting that production out of him in pieces, looking to get the full bag this year.

  7. Concerned jays fan says:
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    Random question ( sry) but does anyone have pitch type data on Colby Rasmus for the second half of last year? Just curious to see if pitchers adjusted to his extreme approach at the plate or if he just sucks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Sounds like something you could find on fangraphs. Start there, see if it gets you what you’re looking for

      • Concerned jays fan says:
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        @Sky:

        Thanks! Not sure if what i found means much of anything but it looks like he got a few more fastballs and sliders in the second half. Couldnt figure out if he was getting the fastballs up and in however.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ah yeah, I don’t know about splits of those types of stats. I think there’s a heat chart out there for % of pitches and where they were thrown…I think. But I don’t think it gives splits.

  8. IrishPride says:
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    In an 12 team OPS league, what is the earliest round you suggest drafting Carter (while still being considered a good value pick)?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Honestly, he’s being virtually ignored based on ADP. I’m doing a mock with some other razzball writers right now via twitter (#razzballmock) and he’s still out there with 2 picks to go in the 20th. You should honestly be able to get him well after the 18th. There’s value there.

    • Steve Stevenson says:
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      @IrishPride: Depends how sophisticated your leaguemates are. I have one OBP league with some intense baseball nut owners where I expect him to go around pick 180 if not before, and in my other OPS league he’ll probably last until later, round 18-20.

  9. Zam says:
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    In a standard 12 team 5×5 league; 27 round draft; would you keep Aoki in that 27th round or Moustakas in the 14th?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      What are your other keepers? Though Aoki is the better player overall, Moustakas has the higher upside and without more info, I’d take a chance and roll Moustakas for the 30 HR chance.

      • Zam says:
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        @Sky: @Sky:
        Yea Aoki is more likely to be dropped even if he’s a better value.

        Also keeping Kipnis (10th); Middlebrooks (27th); A. Craig (27th)

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          You play CI or at least a UTIL, right? Don’t know if I’d keep Mous if I can’t play him every day along side Middlebrooks

          • Zam says:
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            @Sky:

            Yea we have a CI spot AND a Util spot so there’s room.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Cool yeah, go with upside then.

  10. JB says:
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    When you draft in your auction leagues, which strategy to you generally follow:
    Buy studs and go with lots of dollar flier types or
    Stay middle of the road spending 20-25 per player on most guys
    (260 budget/23 players, 12 team league)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I don’t like putting all my eggs in one basket. I follow the balanced approach. If a Braun or Miggy type fell to me at, say, 40 then I’m interested but I’m not gonna do what most do and jack the price up. I’ll take my Jay Bruces of the world and be happy having 3 of them vs one of Miggy.

  11. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    I went to look Carter’s splits from last year and I found that there is no BA difference between lefty and righties and same goes for HR’s. I was hoping that he would be better against one or the other and play the splits and use him as a Util platoon but nope. I am still interested in drafting him in the hopes he steps it up with the confidence of having a regular gig and being the man on a AAA team.

    I hate your double checks, you keep talking about guys I was targeting on draft day, damn you sky!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I do think his k rate is higher against RHP but yeah, in reality he’s a guy who needs lots of luck to hit above .250 but could be a lock for 25+ HRs if he plays enough.

      And don’t worry about these DDC posts, I can promise you no one is listening to me!

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Sky: Listening? Is there an audio version of Razzball where I get to hear the sweet sound of your voice?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          HA well there is but unfortunately the podcast is in the middle of my Monday morning this year. Right at the exact same time I have a weekly meeting. To say that sucks doesn’t begin to quantify it…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Sky: That sounds like it was meant to be. I think you save the listener by not having you take away from their ability to win. Your contributions are no greater than we would get from a magic eight ball. Hey thats a great idea…. Razzball should have an ask the magic eight ball column or tool. A razzballer can ignore all the professional advice and take a chance on the magic eight ball.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Grey initially suggested that as my author name. Didn’t know why until now. Why do I do this? Answer cloudy, come back tomorrow

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Sky: I’m going to go get a magic eight ball and answer commentor questions, regardless of the relevance, with what the eight ball says.

                Jack Full of Eight Balls
                Magic Jack Balls

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Ha!

                  ‘It is decidedly so’

    • Steve Stevenson says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: Use him as a home/road platoon. Minute Maid is nails for right-handed power. Plus that’s an easier platoon to work in fantasy.

  12. Raj says:
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    uh, you mean cris carter? Otherwise, I like Chris Carter too. Astros are hoping he takes the LF position.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, oops. You get flying and you forget to leave out the ‘h’. My bad. I’m with the Astros in wanting him to take of the LF position :)

  13. DS says:
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    He’s in Houston, so no idea how this is an issue, but aren’t there playing time concerns here? I’d be curious to hear your insight. As one commenter mentioned, he doesn’t really show platoon splits. If he plays, he’s an easy profit.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I think the question is: who would be challenging him to play left field? J.D. or Fernando Martinez? Justin Maxwell? Rick Ankiel? He has the talent to take the job and run with it and his competition is less than worrisome. If he does what he should do, there are no issues with playing time.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @royce!: Damn, that’s a cold-ass crappie!

      • royce! says:
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        @Sky: cross him and you’ll get smackereled.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Don’t worry, I wouldn’t be that bold. I’m very shy and Koi.

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