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Well he ain’t Ty, that’s for sure.  *Laugh track begins*  Well if he isn’t Thai, then what is he?  Vietnamese?  Micro-Polynesian?  And who are we talking about exactly?  Did you accidentally delete a sentence?  This is a really confusing intro.  Sorry, readership, it was an inside joke that somehow escaped like an alien from Ripley’s chest.  For those who googled ‘Ripley’s chest’ expecting to either find Alien 3 or Sigourney Weaver’s bosom, welcome to Razzball!  I’ll be your special host for this post where we try and find the truth to whether a player is a draft day discount or if they’re going low for a good reason.  Why am I a special host?  Well you see, I’m Sky from Razzball fantasy football and I’ve come here to crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.  Wait, no, that’s what I do on Saturdays.  What I’m here to do is talk to you about Ty…I mean Alex Cobb of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and how he just might be a pitcher of interest for 2013 fantasy baseball…

If you came to my post wanting me to lie to you, I’m not your guy.  I’m all about cold hard facts as you can tell from the first paragraph *rereads first paragraph*…okay, that’s a little hard to gather from what I first wrote, I guess.  But just to prove that, I’m going to say to you that this is an organizational call.  The Rays have proven they know how to handle their young talent, plain and simple, especially when reviewing their young pitchers.  David Price has proven that.  James Shields proved that.  Heck, even Wade Davis proved the Rays knew how to take advantage of not just great talent but mediocre talent as well.  So I’m here to say that Alex Cobb is above Davis but is below Price in terms of talent.  But under a 4.03 ERA was a 3.54 xFIP through 136.1 IP.  You don’t get those numbers over the course of that many innings without some some ability to pitch at the major league level.  When you factor in a K-rate of 7 per 9 – which should grow in 2013 – and a team that defends well in the Rays – trust me when I say they didn’t pick up James Loney for his 30 HR potential *giggles to self* – Cobb has a shot to give you 180 innings, 150 K, a 3.75 ERA (with room for upside), and 12 wins.  Yeah, it sounds boring but let’s consider that Bill James is estimating almost the exact same line for Hiroki Kuroda in 30 more innings but Hiroki is going over 100 spots higher according to current ADPs at MDC.  For me, the value is there for a solid SP4 or SP5 with high wins potential given his surrounding environment.  No, I don’t mean that regarding the AL East.  I hate that he’s there but the Rays find ways to win and it starts with their pitching.  Now ain’t that a peach!  You don’t get the Tampa Bay Peach reference do you?  Yeah neither do I, I’m just playing off of Grey’s Alex Cobb fantasy last year hoping someone out there can explain it to me.  And you thought MY intros were weird…anywho, Alex Cobb presents a good value for deeper leagues and is a discount of sorts when you compare expectations of other ‘more trusted’ pitchers like a Kuroda.  With that, insert your own obligatory ‘take a bite out of Cobb’ reference here cuz I’m out, homies…of course I’m kidding.  You’re not my homies.

14 Responses

  1. TheOne says:
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    Another good one! Btw thanks for that mariner rap vid, i almost brought a tear to the eyes. Reminded me of little league when i would cover myself in pine tar just because Bones Buhner did too lol

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks!

      Yeah, love Macklemore. Great story-teller and as a Mariners fan it really did bring me back. I welled up a bit myself when I first heard it. Don’t know if it was all for Niehaus though…think some of it was me saying ‘what happened to my beloved Mariners?’.

  2. Yep, really put it together down the stretch last year going 7-1, with a 3.07 ERA from August 1st on. The Rays wanted to limit his innings, but he was just pitching too damn well for them to take the ball out of his hands.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Rays are very smart about their pitchers, how they handle them and how they set defenses up behind them; always a good sign you can’t sit one because of how they’re performing. Cobb isn’t Price or anything but he’s definitely a cheap shot at a solid SP3 this year given where he’s being ranked.

      • @Sky: Agree – and you can draft him as an endgame pick in 12 team leagues at this point. I just drafted him as an SP6 in a 15 team draft with pick #289. At that point, he is nothing but profit I think.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Wow that’s just silly. You’re right, literally no risk in that pick. Just hope he stays in the shadows long enough for me to nab him

  3. bossmanjunior says:
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    Here is what I wrote in the Top 80 Starters post, “Lend me your ear..of corn? Here is my two cents on Cobb.

    There are multiple reasons to like Cobb in 2013. First off, his peripherals are excellent. FIP in the mid 3?s, neutral BABIP, and the highest gb% in the American League at 58.8%, second behind Cahill overall. With an improved defense this offseason, his luck could dramatically improve. If you take out his complete game 8 ER stinker against the Royals, that overall ERA drops to a much more palatable 3.72 ERA (In his defense, I’ve never seen so many bloobers and bleeders in a single game).

    Secondly, Cobb improved as the season went on. He maintained a low walk rate below 3 BB/9, but saw an uptick in strike outs and luck based results.

    Much like his FIP beater friend Hellickson (I keep telling FIP he’s no good for her!), Cobb is even better with men on base and doesn’t get rattled. Small sample size alert, Cobb didn’t issue a single walk in his 9 high leverage innings. Last 2 months of the season his K/9 was close to 8 per 9. Its also worth mentioning he was recovering from a surgery to remove a rib (I assume Marilyn Manson was his medical advisor), so his velocity and “feel” didn’t come back until mid season, posting a 3.42 ERA in the second half.

    Much like other guys in this tier (Fiers and Griffin), he lacks a plus fastball but has plus secondary offerrings. Smooth delivery, repeatable mechanics, athletic frame with good arm action make him a very safe pick. There is still projectability in terms of improving the strikeouts (regularly over 25% k-rate in minors) but the elite ground ball rate is what seperates him from the pack, likely the new Cahill of the AL.” And that’s me quoting me!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Funny enough, I did get a chance to read your original comment and couldn’t agree more with you. You’re preaching to the choir. Preach on, brotha man, preach on!

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Sky:

        I’m going to pretend I inspired this post haha

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ha, well whatever you need to tell your friends that makes you popular. That’s how I roll!

  4. Randy says:
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    He’s better than Davis? Wow, I want to have your babies now.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      With a name like Randy, I have to say that’s not too impressive of an offer…

      Of course was just aiming for perspective. He’s a nice SP3 if things shake out right. Just think about what you have to spend to get Kuroda and realize he goes much cheaper.

      BTW, I only consent to impregnation if you don’t pursue child support. I’m not Ray Lewis over here.

  5. JoeC says:
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    Nice post. I’m enjoying these “hidden gems” you’re finding. They’re gonna make me look smarter than I really am in my drafts. :)

    I’m not saying I’m wearing a pair of your underwear on my head, but let’s just say… I’m a fan! :)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @JoeC: That’s where they went!

      Oh and I’m glad to hear you like them, should have a few more around the corner here.

Comments are closed.