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Sure, you can consider Devon Travis injury prone.  You can also consider Rob Kardashian the hot Kardashian.  This is no sweat off me.  Labeling any player under 27 years old injury prone is a mistake, which is different than Ruth Chris, she’s Ms. Steak.  I’ve been guilty of labeling players injury prone in the past.  For years, I called Ian Kinsler injury prone because up until the age of 26 he missed around forty games a year for three straight seasons.  Now, Kinsler has three straight seasons of 150+ games and in five of the past six seasons.  I did the same thing to Nelson Cruz.  In his first few seasons, he averaged about 108 games a season.  He now has three straight years of 152+ games.  I also think Nelson Cruz was only injury prone when he was Nelson Cruz Jr.  No idea if the weight of his pops’ shadow played into this.  Not all players are injury prone across their entire careers like Glass Chipper.  Devon Travis had one major injury in 2015, a shoulder injury.  He returned from that injury and hit for power and average (11 HRs, .300 in 101 games).  He’s had the usual nicks and bruises here and there, he’s even dealing with a knee thing right now which should be fine by February, but one injury does not make an injury-prone player.  I guess you can consider him injury prone, but if you believe his shoulder is all good to go now, there’s no injury, there’s just prone, and I’m prone to like that.   There’s no reason to think Travis won’t play 150+ games this year.  In 163 major league games across two seasons, Devon Travis has a stat line of 92/19/85/.301/7.   Now, we’re talking my language.  So, what can we expect from Devon Travis for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

92/19/85/.301/7.  Cust playin’.  But that has to factor in, doesn’t it?  I actually think we might be able to expect more.  Assuming his knee is fine, and by all reports I’ve seen it will be, seven steals over a season will be low.  He’s not a speedster by any stretch.  He’s one of those sneaky, pick-your-spots, base stealers.  The kind that could get 12-15 steals.  The kind that should get that many steals.  Hit and run plays alone and he should get more than eight steals, throw in a few vs. poor pitchers and catchers and he gets a few more.  Chuck in the Jays won’t be offensively as good so they may need to run more and you get more steals — are we up to 45 steals on the year for Travis yet?  Okay, okay, I’m not saying he’ll get 20 steals, but 7 steals is nothing.  Then, his power.  Last year, he hit fly balls 34% of the time.  His homers/fly balls is roughly 11%.  So, quick math tells us he’ll hit about 175 fly balls and 19.25 of them will go for home runs.  So, 19 homers and a single that travels 425 feet.  19 HRs, 12 SBs, .300 average.  You know who I’m describing?  The AM/PM mascot, Toomgis?  No!  I’m not describing that.  I’m describing Xander Bogaerts but hitting leadoff instead of third.  Intrigued yet?  Yeah, I thought you would be.  Travis is likely more of a .280 hitter than .310, but he has hit .300 in his career.  Conservatively, for 2017, I’ll give you Devon Travis’ projections at 91/19/64/.285/10 in 578 ABs with chance for even some upside from there.  Toomgis out.

  1. Brad says:
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    Solid analysis Grey!

    Quick question for you. I was offered Harper and Boegarts for Trout and Segura. It’s a 12 team H2h keeper. Offensive cats are: AVG, HITS, RUNS, RBI, SBs, TBs, K’s and OPS.

    My take is I like it for me as even though Trout is better than Harper I feel the difference between Boegarts and Segura is greater than that difference (assuming Harper bounces back which I think he will) I don’t trust Segura and now that he’s in Seattle I think that he’ll regress.
    Do you agree with me on this one or would you reject this offer?

    Thanks a lot.

    Cersy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I don’t love the trade

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Brad: My completely unsolicited weigh-in (deferring to Grey of course!): Hold your Trout and Segura. Trout is unparalleled and incredibly safe (who knows what Bryce will do from year to year), and I don’t know how different Xander and Segura really are, even with the move. Xander’s value is really lineup and BABIP dependent, and suddenly the Sox now have Pablo instead of Big Papi hitting behind him. Segura will also give you much more HR Plus SB (36 to Xander’s 26 per steamer) and probably K a little bit less.

    • Bye Felica says:
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      @Brad: Nope
      I’m taking Trout in a vacuum. Especially in a keeper. He isn’t even in his prime yet. Scary right?

  2. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    I like it. In a 12 team mixed he could easily be forgotten until late rounds (or even go undrafted), and the only risk you’re really taking is that he gets hurt. If he stays healthy, he should easily deliver a top 12 2B return or better.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup!

  3. CMUTimmah says:
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    As a Tiger fan and nerd about minor leaguers, I’ve been looking at Travis for years. None of this makes sense to me. He’s not THAT good of a player. He doesn’t do anything very well, and his injuries are becoming like Kardashian references in your articles… predictable and scary!

    BUT, I’m aware I’ll have to punt a middle infielder position to get other players I want… and likely Altuve is going to be more loved by others than myself, so I could see myself taking a later round shot at Travis, and skirting predictability and fear. Then skirting by actually wearing a skirt to the bar (which should be a punishment for finishing last, but I do it just to get laughs, to be frank). “Don’t be Frank, be Tim”… Ok, I’ll try.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      In short, you’re wearing a skirt

      • CMUTimmah says:
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        @Grey: It’s more like a tutu, it covers 90% of the head, but not the balls.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Buchholz to Phillies. Are you now interested in 12 teamers?

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Bye Felica: Oh totally. But in the NL East I could see him having one of those weird seasons where he owns everyone and no one understands why.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll write a post on it for Thursday…

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: I’m not a believer but someone told me he had the lowest LD% in the AL.

      I replied with his increased walk rate and homer totals, and the fact that (RIP) Jose Fernandez had the highest in MLB. But hey, what does all that matter. Not many line drives!

      Grey did you see Casey Affleck’s fake Dunkin commercial on SNL this weekend? Spot on Boston trash.

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Boston Trash?! that video = me in college Ralph! it was perfect

        • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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          @SheriffMcRawDawg: “I’m like the Mayeh a’ Dunkin'”

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @SheriffMcRawDawg: I’m from here I can totally say Boston Trash lol. Plus I know like 4 dozen guys exactly like that, Bruins hat and all.

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: my Dad’s from Brookline. I went to BU, lived in Allston for a while. cultural hub of the east haha. I can’t stop watching that skit it’s perfect

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @SheriffMcRawDawg: You, Rudy, Grey, Aesop Rock, I’m surrounded by Terriers.

              • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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                @Ralph Lifshitz: somebody went to Proahvadinse!

                • Ralph Lifshitz

                  Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                  @SheriffMcRawDawg: No way, I was done with Catholic schools after HS. I went to Umass…..Dartmouth.

  5. Rich says:
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    Asked this late last night on the previous thread, just re-posting here: 16 team keeper, 6×6 (ops and holds), 9 starting position players, 1500 innings cap, $275 budget. Current keepers are Mookie Betts ($30), Marcell Ozuna ($4), Edwin Diaz ($10) and Michael Fulmer ($1). Can keep 2 more from Matt Carpenter ($21), JD Martinez ($30), Jason Kipnis ($12) Ian Desmond ($20), Kevin Gausman ($5), or Jameson Taillon ($10). Leaning Kipnis/Gausman, but that may just be because I’m cheap in real life and see lowest cost hitter/lowest cost pitcher. Who would you keep?

    • Bye Felica says:
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      @Rich: I would lose Diaz and keep Just Dong, Kipnis & Tallion cuz SAGNOF

      • Rich says:
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        @Bye Felica: I’m almost definitely keeping Diaz, waivers only allow 1 pickup per week, so between that and the whole 16 team thing no closer goes for under $20 in the draft.

    • Bill says:
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      @Rich:

      Carp for sure in OPS league. He has the highest floor of that group and $21 aint bad if you’re saving elsewhere. If you’re keeping Ozuna, Diaz and Fulmer at those costs, I’d prob go best player avail. (JD). Gotta hold onto top 3-4 studs.

      • Rich says:
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        @Bill: I traded for Carpenter right before he got hurt last year, so I think that bad taste has left me under valuing him. I’m currently trying to turn Ozuna into a $42 Rizzo, in which case I might go with a pitcher over JD, but otherwise definitely a valid point about keeping BPA.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Bye Felica: @Rich: No love for Desmond in Coors? Perhaps arms are worth more in 16 teams, but I’d want all bats out of that group, with the exception being Fulmer maybe.

      • Rich says:
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        @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: He definitely could have an insane year there, just nervous about keeping 3 OFs and winding up with limited roster flexibility since there’s only one UTIL and I generally think there are some good OF sleepers this year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… Kipnis, Desmond

      • Rich says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  6. westcoastpete says:
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    Hey Grey, I love me some Devon Travis but I’m not so optimistic on his chances to stay injury free.

    Over the years I’ve read a few articles that show previous year injuries are the most significant variables in predicting injuries and that age has little impact. There might be some correlation issues built into the regression model but BP does a good job of explaining the data. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23747#commentMessage)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, and like I said in the post, Cruz and Kinsler were injury prone until they weren’t… there’s more examples I’m sure…

      • Westcoastpete says:
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        @Grey:

        The data doesn’t say all previously injured players will get hurt again, only that they’re more likely to be injured than the average player. Also, once a previously injured player gets through a season or two clean, he should lose the injury prone tag.

        I’m sure for every example of young players getting healthy there are more examples of guys who stayed hurt but those arenot the players you tend to remember.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gotcha… Once I dock I will read the article you posted

  7. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    I’m glad I’ve asked you about whether to ship out Nelson Cruz in my keeper for 2 years and then basically just ignored the advice. Which means he’ll tear his groin(s?!) off this year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  8. JR Ewing says:
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    It’s a bit too early for this, don’t you think. We should not make any judgements until Rob does that photo shoot where they set glasses and other things on his ass.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  9. JR Ewing says:
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    Also I agree with you analysis on Devon Travis.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  10. ERad says:
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    I for one welcome another love affair with Devon Travis

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      All aboard!

  11. Ryan says:
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    Have a keeper from offensive and pitching categories. Thoughts on one of Devon Travis, Jonathan Villar, Nomar Mazarra, or Andrew Benintendi AND Danny Duffy, Michael Fulmer, Rick Porcello or Aaron Sanchez.. Wish I could keep 2 P, but sadly it’s 1 Off. and 1 P… Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Villar, Sanchez

  12. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    So following up on the “My father has awful taste in movies” conversation from yesterday. I was chatting with the old man last night and he drops this gem on me. “I really like what I’m seeing in the previews for that new Sing movie. Looks funny, the pig has a Russian accent.”

    I can’t wait for him to talk about this at least 4-6 times on Christmas Eve.

    • Big Odio says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: I love the kids movies…most of them. They are great in an altered reality

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Big Odio: Me too, but sometimes Dreamworks really misses the mark. The last Shrek movie was awful.

        • Big Odio says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: Dreamworks is so hit or miss, the Croods was awful beyond belief as were a few others. Pixar is usually pretty solid as long as it doesn’t make you want to cry (thank you Up). If want to watch a great one in a heavily altered state you need to try Spacechimps.

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Big Odio: Hahaha it’s like in high school my friends and I took acid and went to see What Dreams May Come with Robin Williams……bad scene.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s hilarious! Does he like porky pig?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, he’s a pig enthusiast. He reviewed the entire preview with me. It was kind of hilarious.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I kinda wanna send him Patriot’s Day DVD, he’s gonna lose it….

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: He’ll spend the whole time hating Mark Whalberg, and saying “why did they make this movie? It’s in bad taste”

            Then again he thought The Departed was the best movie ever. He still gets mad when I say it’s overrated.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Hmm… I don’t know Rappin Ralph, I gotta side with your pops there, I liked the Departed too

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: Good movie not great. Around here it was The Greatest Movie of All Time.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, that’s a bit much

  13. Troy says:
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    He worth keeping at $3?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe, depends on options

  14. los locos says:
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    Happy Holidays Grey..

    Coming off a solid year, once again for the 3rd year in the row getting to the dance, but loss. Looking forward to 2017. I get to keep 7 players total. Either can be 4 offensive players and 3 pitchers or 4 pitchers and 3 offensive players. I made a few moves last season that will hurt my draft because I traded away picks to land players. With that said who would you keep 5×5 obp, k/9.

    I lose out on a 2nd rd pick, 5th rd pick, 6th rd and 7th rd pick in 2017.,

    C Salvador Perez C | KC
    1B Freddie Freeman 1B | ATL
    2B Ian Kinsler 2B | DET
    3B Nolan Arenado 3B | COL
    SS Corey Seager SS | LAD
    OF Ryan Braun OF | MIL
    OF Starling Marte OF | PIT
    OF J.D. Martinez OF | DET
    U Mark Trumbo OF | BAL
    BENCH
    1B Brandon Moss 1B,OF | STL
    3B Justin Turner 3B | LA
    OF Jackie Bradley OF | BOS
    OF Adam Duvall OF | CIN
    OF Nomar Mazara OF | TEX
    OF Hunter Pence OF | SF

    SP Dylan Bundy RP,SP | BAL
    SP Danny Duffy RP,SP | KC
    SP David Phelps RP,SP | MIA
    SP Danny Salazar SP | CLE
    SP Jeff Samardzija SP | SF
    RP Craig Kimbrel RP | BOS
    RP Mark Melancon RP | SF
    Bench
    SP John Lackey SP | CHC
    SP Tanner Roark SP | WAS
    SP Stephen Strasburg SP | WAS
    SP Clayton Kershaw SP | LAD

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy holidays! 3B Nolan Arenado 3B | COL
      SS Corey Seager SS | LAD
      OF Ryan Braun OF | MIL
      OF Starling Marte OF | PIT
      Keershaw, Strasburg, Salazar

  15. Scott steelers says:
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    Very early but i lost football so onto baseball! Need 5 keepers. H2h 5×5 12 team league
    Polanco 16th Rd
    Springer 13th rd
    Turner 11th Rd
    Villar 14th Rd
    Pollack 4th Rd
    Scherzer 6th Rd
    Profar 18th Rd
    So basically kick 2 out

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lose Profar and Pollock

  16. goodfold2 says:
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    finally catching up with all the posts since early september when i fell behind from football/hockey. 30 man league now with 110 mil budgets (inflation rule change from real life contracts being a bit bigger now than 4-5 years ago), prospect slots about to go up to 35 with coming (way too damn early these drafts come every F’ing year when we could easily move them back a whole month since we have nothing to do for entire march at rate we go, it sucks as mostly ALL prospect stuff isn’t out in january (at least completely), even Ralph’s stuff isn’t close to finished when we start draft). holds and OPS added 6X6. roto but done in real life divisions, and playoffs done that way too, which are h2h.
    C (1) d’arnaud .4 mil (league minimum, ending in 2017)
    CI (2) beltre 10.5 mil (2017)
    MI (2) segura
    OF (3) altherr .4 (19)
    – e.rosario .4 (18)
    util (1) b.drury .4 (19) could count as OF/MI/CI
    SP (3 SP/3 RP/3 P slots, and about 6 starters optimal including bench)
    – sale 12 mil (franchise tagged, pay real life money for this year)
    – quintana
    – z.davies .4 (19)
    – reynaldo lopez .4 (20, barely too many innings has to be up now)
    RP – m.cabrera .4 (20)
    – n.jones 5.348 mil (18)
    minors:
    C o’connor TB
    CI – denton STL
    – l.encarnacion PHI
    – kubitza ATL
    – lavalley CIN
    -padlo TB (the 2nd biggest loser of the c-dick trade)
    MI – rondon TB
    – demeritte ATL
    – p. gonzalez COL
    – salcedo ATL
    OF – cozens PHI
    – tocci PHI
    – sierra STL
    -vj reyes ARI
    -d.alvarez BAL
    – whitley TB
    – dj davis TOR
    SP – heredia PIT
    – kilome PHI
    – b.martin TEX
    – a.smith SD
    -v.alcantara DET
    – yarbrough SEA
    RP – sherfy ARI
    – m.ynoa WSOX (has to come up soon, could be set up soonish)
    – staumont KC (could start or be whippy closer type, skyrocketed up prospect rankings in a year though)
    1. should i franchise tag quintana for 7.175 or segura for 2.6? the other would be restricted and i’d either get picks (better picks the more money the bid) if i didn’t match or would match. beltre was matched last year at this time for his 10.5 for 2 years. gotta think segura gets overbid compared to value, but quintana could see bids of 15 or so himself.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: all minors guys on free pay (.4 when called up) till at least end of 2020, unless/until they get their 50 innings for pitchers/150 at bats for hitters.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @goodfold2: oh, forgot, since i’d have to match (if i did it) a possible multi-year deal on the guy i restrict take that into account as well.

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