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Whenever I think of rookies playing for Dusty Baker, I think of the phrase, “Let them eat cake!”  So here we are again with another Reds rookie, Devin Mesoraco.  With Mesoraco, Cozart and Juan Francisco, I kinda want to take off my Zubaz and wear the Reds rookies as pants.  And following that to its natural conclusion, Mesoraco would be the crotch area of my pants.  And taking that to an even weirder place, I would have to dry clean my pants once a week.  Finally, I’d have to tell the dry cleaner that those stains were dried glue because I was pasting together a collage of Reds rookies.  Lastly, if you followed that, you’re sick, go see a shrink!  Last year, Mesoraco hit 15 homers and .289 in 499 Triple-A plate appearances, but did poorly in his short stint in the majors (2 homers, .180 in 53 plate appearances).  These numbers are in line with his past years in the minors.  He hits well once he adjusts to his new surroundings.  Maybe he doesn’t trust the baggage handlers with his security blanket and has to wait for it to arrive through snail mail.  So what can we expect from Devin Mesoraco for 2012 fantasy baseball?

He could be a cheap Carlos Santana or Jesus Montero.  No kidding, friend.  He has 25 homer power and can hit for a solid average.  In his last year at Triple-A, he had a .371 OBP, year before in Double-A he had a .363 OBP.  Mesoraco will also be in the middle of a solid lineup in a great home park.  Some would say, a Great American Ball Park.  Land of the free yadda yadda.  With Montero possibly not having catcher eligibility and Yankee hype swirling around him and Santana having the experience and the price tag, Mesoraco will end up on more of my teams than either player.  Assuming Dusty commits to playing him.  Yeah, that ‘assuming’ is large and once dated Roseanne Barr.  If Mesoraco gets 400 ABs (enough ABs for a mixed league catcher), I’ll give him the line of 55/18/65/.280, and definitely worth drafting in mixed leagues.  There is upside for more. *Grey drools*  Upside…

45 Responses

  1. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    yeah,ill be snagging him late where i can

  2. Terrence Mann says:
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    Grey, which pitchers this year besides Wandy will be candidates to get traded to a contender before the deadline?

  3. Big Magoo says:
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    Didn’t know you’d have a post coming on him based on my question on him vs. Hanigan from last week. Got a post coming on Adam Jones? It seems like you come out with something on my 2012 target players outside of the top 50 every week.

  4. OaktownSteve says:
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    Grey what are you doing in there???
    Mom, leave me alone!
    Grey, I want to talk to you about all those Ron Shandler magazines I found in your room.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Plus, aren’t you a Reds fan?

    @Terrence Mann: Aw, man, tough question. Not sure without some research.

    @Big Magoo: Don’t think there’s a whole post on Jones coming, but January Grey is full of surprises.

    @OaktownSteve: Are those Ron Shandler magazines inside your Playboy?

  6. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Any Francisco Liriano, Kevin Correia, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Ryan Dempster and Jeremy Guthrie come to mind.

  7. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Grey: PS What up Grey.

  8. Ed Nugent says:
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    Hey Grey – I know the 2012 rankings are coming out soon but I can’t wait! I have CGon and was thinking about trading him for a worse player in order to get back some draft picks which i traded away this offseason. I am thinking about shooting for DJenn. How much better do you think CGon will be than DJenn? Thanks!

  9. OaktownSteve says:
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    @Terrence Mann: any of the rumored trade guys that don’t go in the off-season. Garza, Gavin Floyd. Any of the A’s of course. Brandon McCarthy comes to mind.

    @Grey: the Red I’m keeping my eye on is Chris Heisey. Reds may or may not decide to give him the gig. Terrible splits so platoon is a risk, but he’s good defensively so if he hits lefties just enough might be a nice little buy there. Could be a 20 and 10 guy and will almost certainly go for a buck.

  10. Big Magoo says:
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    Haha, I’d expect nothing less. Looking forward to more goodness in the offseason. Btw, do you know of any early adp data outside of MDC? I’d like to make my draft strategy more specific (yes, I know it’s early).

  11. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Every season I end up with a decent performing catcher despite avoiding paying for them on draft day. In previous seasons I’ve picked up Miguel Montero, Napoli and Alex Avila. This season I’ll wait until the end of the draft and end up with Devin Mesoraco, the guy from the Royals or Doumit. It’s always tempting to draft a guy like Wieters earlier in the draft but I’m finally committed to waiting until the very end in 2012.

  12. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Big Magoo: I don’t trust the MDC results at all. Most of them seem to be autodrafted results that ignore any of the recent events in baseball.

  13. Big Magoo says:
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    @SwaggerJackers: I agree with you, but there’s not much to go on at this point. I look more at the expert’s results for my money leagues, but last I checked, there’s only three drafts’ worth of results there.

  14. Terrence Mann says:
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    Notables too far down in MDC’s predraft lists: Worley, Collmenter, Bonifacio, Cozart, Carp, Luebke…those are just the guys I noticed in the last 24 hours.

  15. Big Magoo says:
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    @Terrence Mann: I’m definitely interested in Luebke from those guys, and maybe Bonifacio for his positional versatility. I’m more interested in the guys who could provide elite numbers in the early-middle rounds who look like good values based on lack of exposure/injury concerns (Bruce, Cruz, etc.)

  16. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: yeah,i watched him play 3 or 4 times here in louisville,he is a good looking hitter and they have $1 beer and hotdog night,

  17. Mark says:
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    @SwaggerJacks, @Big Magoo

    I hear you guys, so this year I actually splurged a bit and paid for a premium membership at MDC. I’m not sure its really worth it, but you definitely get a lot more info from the trend reports and individual player histograms than you do just from looking at straight ADP. For example, Ryan Braun is still ranked #3 in ADP, but he’s trending wayyyy down, while guys like Matt Moore and Mark Melancon are trending significantly up, even though their ADPs are still relatively low. The histograms are also pretty useful–they’re charts where it shows you how often a player was picked at each individual draft position. For example, on Matt Moore’s chart, you can see that he’s actually most frequently getting drafted in the 100-130 range, even though his ADP is 173, its just that he’s sometimes getting drafted really, really late, and wasn’t even drafted in about 40% of their qualifying drafts (that info you can see with a free membership I believe), which is far more than anyone else whose ADP is below 200. That means you can assume his ADP is not a good representation where you can project him to go in drafts, and if you want him you actually have to target him much earlier. They also provide you with “target” and “bargain” columns on the ADP table, the former is about where you should consider targeting the player based on where he’s going most frequently if he’s someone you want to draft, the latter is where you may see him fall to such that his cost is significantly lower than his ADP. Again, for Moore, while his ADP is 173, his “Target” is 116, a huge difference relative to most other guys, and his “Bargain” is “ND” (not drafted). This is the system noticing how frequently he’s being drafted early in the former case, and in the latter case noticing how frequently he’s being drafted very late or not at all. Essentially, though, its saying if he’s a guy you want on your roster, if you don’t take him by the end of the 10th round (12 team league), the odds of someone else taking him are going to go up significantly. You may be able to get him a bit later, but you may not, its up to you to decide how early you’re willing to take him and if you’re willing to risk letting someone else get him. For most players, where their draft position distributions are more typical, their “Target” will be at or slightly above their ADP, but this helps you identify anomolies like Moore who’s straight ADP info really isn’t worth much, and will actually hurt you if you rely on it too heavily. These are the guys you can’t just look at go “okay, so if I take him 12-15 picks before his ADP, I should land him”. In Moore’s case, in a serious draft there’s little chance that’ll fly.

    This info is all much more helpful in planning a draft strategy than straight ADP, but of course, its mostly stuff you could reasonably infer just from knowing about the game and relying on your own fantasy baseball experience, so it may or may not be worth it, I’m still making up my mind lol.

    Also, love Luebke, I was sure he was going to be a mega-sleeper this year and worried he might wind up overhyped, but it seems he’s still flying under the radar. I still plan on reaching for him significantly in my main league, but that could still mean taking him in the mid-late teen rounds, which I’m probably willing to do.

    As for catchers, big Mesoraco fan, but the guy who has really flown under the radar is Wilson Ramos. He’s at 267 on MDC, which is insane. Do people not realize he was rescued or something? He was very solid last year and should play even more this year, which could mean an outside shot at 20 HR with a respectable AVG. And he’s the 17th catcher off the board! That’s after Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy and Kurt Suzuki, who are so yawnstipating picking them should come with a free season long supply of caffeine and laxative. And that’s not to hate on those guys, they aight, but seriously, Ramos went .267-15-48-52 last year in just 435 PAs and had an .813 OPS after the all-star break. This year he won’t have someone like Pudge around, who needs some veteran-appeasement playing time, and the Nats might be able to cobble together a respectable lineup if Zimmerman, Werth, and LaRoche can bounce back a bit. If he plays in 120 games, its not so hard to see Ramos being a Top 10 catcher.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Smokey: My mustache, from my lip… You?

    @Ed Nugent: CarGo will be better than Jennings. By a decent amount unless CarGo craps the bed and Jennings hits his ceiling.

    @OaktownSteve: I like Heisey, mentioned him the other day (I think). Worried about too many outfielders and Dusty not playing him though.

    @Big Magoo: Hmm… I don’t think I do, bit early still.

    @SwaggerJackers: Only been saying it for 4 (stutterer!) years now. Hope others listen too.

    @AL KOHOLIC: $1 for hot dog and beer? Damn, $5 would get you nice.

  19. seph meier says:
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    Keeper league: who do you like better this year and long term…matt moore, yu darvish, or adam wainwright?

  20. Pabs says:
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    Devin is gonna be a star – another V. Mart if Dusty doesn’t destroy him in one way or another

  21. Tony says:
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    @Mark: holy eff mark, biggest, longest, hugest post ever…. good job. LOL

    ADP’s will adjust, so anything that you think is moving up or down etc will vary by draft time, no worrys in december about adp’s!

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    royce!: That’s great… I thought it was gonna be a clip of Matt LeBlanc throwing to the monkey and the monkey back to him.

  23. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Ha! Was there a triple play in Ed?

    Speaking of terrible movies, I saw The Change Up the other night. It was one of those movies where you could tell that it had been worked over so many times that they had just given up and released it just because they had sunk money into it. My wife correctly called the plot within the first 5 minutes, so we mostly kept watching to see if she was right. Funny thing is that she is always on my case about not wanting to watch movies (a completely incorrect characterization) but after watching that she said that maybe we should take a while off from movies in the hope that something worthwhile will come out. Probably didn’t help that the prior movie we watched was the Louis CK Beacon thing, which obviously was brilliant.

    I’m fine with not watching movies for a bit, because I have been reading The Art of Fielding and am very happy with it thus far.

  24. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Mark: Oh yeah, I forgot about Ramos…he’s another end game option I’ll consider.

    Regarding mock draft results – that’s helpful that you can see the trends if you pay. Of course, it doesn’t really matter now what the trends say since no one is actually drafting for real leagues at this point. It will become much more valuable right before draft day.

    I also think people generally neglect to review their own league pre-rankings. For casual drafters, they go into ESPN or Yahoo and go right down the prerankings to find their next player. ESPN had Gio Gonzales outside the top 300 last season so the odds that he got drafted lower for people using ESPN are greater than people drafting with Yahoo. Just another thing to keep in mind. Finding the guys with injuries or short seasons can be gold.

  25. royce! says:
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    Crap…I know you write for Hollywood, so I’m hoping that you weren’t involved in the Change Up. For more than one reason.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Never actually saw Ed, but I’m sure they had a monkey triple play. You kinda have to, right? I wanna read The Art of Fielding, glad to hear it’s solid. I had not part in The Change-Up. I would’ve called it The Off Speed Pitch, anyway. Not surprised that it was bad, looked terrible. Rudy gave Hugo a thumbs up, I wanna see that next, I think.

  27. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Never saw Ed?!! And you call yourself a baseball fan??!!

    I can’t vouch for The Art of Fielding beyond page 152, but so far it has been very good. The dust jacket includes praise from Jonathan Franzen, which might give you an idea of Harbach’s writing.

    I gotta see Hugo. I’ve given the book, which I haven’t had time to read, to my brother-in-law’s 11 year old son and my friends’ 7 year old daughter, and both devoured it. Everything I’ve read about the book has been positive. I should probably read the book instead of continuing to read reviews of it, especially if I intend to continue giving it to young kids. You dig the movie Metropolitan? I always fear that I am like the main character, who entertains fully developed critiques of books that he’s never read.

    Glad to hear that you weren’t involved in The Change Up, though if you had been, it wouldn’t have meant much. I bet that a lot of funny, smart people were involved in it, but the Hollywood system can wreck even the best ideas (not that it had any, but still).

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    royce!: Love Stillman and Metropolitan. I’m the same way, have fully formed opinions on so much that I’ve never read or watched. Hugo seems like a smart movie that also works for kids, I’ll have to see.

  29. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I love Stillman too. He finally has a new movie, Damsels in Distress, though I have no idea when it will be released. I’d pretty much watch anything with Aubrey Plaza, and would probably look at anything with Analeigh Tipton, so the fact that it’s a Stillman film is just icing on the cake.

  30. royce! says:
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    Andrew Bailey to BOS for Reddick and two low prospects…melancon’s days as the closer were, well, none. Seems that OAK could have got a lot more for Bailey, but maybe they felt they needed to do something to make up for the killing they made in the Gio trade.

  31. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    You end up watching that movie In Time on your flight, Grey?

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: I saw the guy that’s in all of his movies at a Starbucks by my house. First time in a while I was like a fan boy. Figures Melancon’s not entering the season as the closer. No way was he closing for the Red Sox. And with that said he will get saves when Bailey gets injured.

    @Awesomus Maximus: Nah, flight to NY was at 6 AM and I slept. I’m boarding the flight home now and don’t have it. Will need to Netflix Iyar home.

  33. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Not sure if you mean Nichols or Eigeman, but you might be disappointed to learn that neither seems to be in the new movie. It’s all young TV people, like Adrian Brody and some guy from Gossip Girl. I’ll still take it.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Eigeman… Bummer, but I’m sure it’ll still(man) be awesome.

  35. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Hey-o!

    Who you got for closer in OAK now? I recall their fill ins for Bailey as being terrible last year. I know that there’s little point in having a great closer for a bad team, but jeez. I expect that they could just be writing off at least 2012 and thinking that Sonny Gray could close as early as 2013. How about Fautino De Los Santos? He’s got closer stuff (high Ks, high BB).

    It’s interesting to look at the A’s current depth chart. Outside of relievers, I don’t think they have anyone over 30. It’s actually kind of exciting, but mostly terrifying.

    Have a safe trip home.

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Hmm… Fuentes or Balfour… Maybe, dare I say, Waking Joey Devine?

  37. elwood blues says:
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    First off-season question.. NL Only keeper league.
    I have Goldschmidt at $18.. maybe a little high, but it looks like a lot of other top 1b will be kept in our league.. do I keep him?

  38. Wake Up says:
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    Don’t sleep on “Saint from the Saints” in OAK…

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @elwood blues: It’s high, but not terrible. Do you have other options?

    @Wake Up: I wouldn’t simply because his torso doesn’t seem like it would make a comfortable pillow.

  40. Wake Up says:
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    Plus, I don’t think they won the right to bid on Sobakawa…

  41. elwood blues says:
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    @Grey: We have to protect at least 7 players.
    Unfortunately a lot of my cheap prospects (Parker, Peacock among them) were lost in trades to AL. I have Fielder at $30 so I’ll have to see where he ends up, $30 is not terribly bad for him.. but I wouldn’t want to keep both.

    I took on a lot of salary at the end of the year in my bid for the title, so I may have to keep more higher priced players than I’d like to($Marcum $18, Goldie at $18, Headley at $14.. even Halladay at $40) and some cheap players I normally wouldn’t want to keep (Ellis at $5, yikes) just to get to my 7.

    By the way the salary cap is the standard $260.

    I’m going to have to see if I can trade some of those players for 2 back just to get some salary room for the player auction.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @elwood blues: Goldie at $18 is better than Headley at $14.

  43. Wake Up says:
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    C’mon sleeping on a Saint don’t feel like a cloud?

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