Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

A quick preamble about the 2011 fantasy rookie series that is coming all this month.  Rookies are picked through MLB eligibility requirements, less than 130 ABs or 50 IP.  There’s no Eric Young Jr, no Ryan Kalish, no Peter Bourjos etc. etc. etc.  Okay, with that shizz out of the way, let’s get down to bidness.  Carl Crawford is going to the Angels or the Mets or somewhere else where he’ll probably lose some value.  But that’s for another day, or night if you’re a vampire.  (Hey, sucky!)  Either way, Desmond Jennings time is nigh, a word that only sounds negative.  In this case, it’s positive, ya’ll!  DJ is currently on the ones and twos for top ranked MLB prospects.  He’s ranked second on Stephen’s top 50 fantasy baseball prospects thing-a-ma-boob.  He’s ranked number one for me.  Numero uno.  The Big Mahoff.  Dora the Explorer, Boots the Monkey and Swiper the Fox all wrapped in one!  (What, not street enough?)  In 2010, he swiped 37 bags with a .362 OBP in Triple-A.  In 2009, 11 homers, 52 steals and a .401 OBP (in Double and Triple-A combined).  So what can we expect for Desmond Jennings in 2011 fantasy baseball?

He’s never had an OBP lower than .360 at any stop in the minor leagues, so I don’t think the bottom is going to fall out on that in 2011.  If he’s getting on base, he’ll be stealing bases and scoring runs, whether he’s slotted leadoff or ninth.  Is he much more than SAGNOF?  Yes and no.  He can be more than SAGNOF for 2011, but, worst comes to worst (or wurst comes to wurst, if you’re German) he’s going to steal bases.  There’s the possibility of him getting 5-8 homers and he has the power for 12.  If he reaches the top end of his ceiling, you’re looking at Carl Crawford.  More likely, you’re going to open up this Crackerjack and get half a Carl Crawford.  Say a Carlford.  You ain’t got the Craw yet, kid!  In mixed leagues, Jennings will be worth drafting late as your fifth outfielder.  If he hits well in April, his value will go through the roof and you might be able to flip him over the top rope.  Or hold him and get a line near 75/5/45/.270/35 with upside from there.  The world is yours, Des!  Des, “It’s mine, it’s mine, it’s mine.”

81 Responses

  1. Steve says:
    (link)

    You know what would be really awesome? That if a catcher threw Jennings out and then yelled “No swiping, Swiper!”

    You wait, Grey. You too will be referencing Phineas and Ferb before you know it.

  2. big o says:
    (link)

    is this the old maybin write-up ?

  3. GopherDay says:
    (link)

    What’s interesting is that Baseball America just released their top ten Tampa Bay prospect list, and Jennings is third on the list behind Hellickson and Moore.

    Jennings is also a huge injury risk, so there is that to look out for as well.

  4. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    Grey:
    I’m in need of help with designating my keepers in a 12 team Dynasty League (H2H CBS Standard Points Scoring). Thanks to you and the rest of razzball nation, I am the defending champ!! We keep 15 players and redraft, in reverse order of win/loss record, for our remaining 8. Solid keepers are followed by an asterisk(*).

    C-Ruiz
    C-Montero
    1B-M. Cabrera*
    2B-Utley*
    SS-Andrus*
    3B-Wright*
    OF-Braun*
    OF-CarGo*
    OF-D. Young*
    OF-C. Young
    U-Adam Jones
    SP-Lincecum*
    SP-Cliff Lee*
    SP-Verlander*
    SP-Gallardo*
    SP-Nolasco*
    RP-J. Chacin*
    RP-Wagner
    BN-SeanRod
    BN-D. Hudson
    BN-Slowey
    BN-Matusz
    BN-Norris
    BN-J. Zimmermann

    Which other 2 should I keep out of Ruiz, Montero, CB Young, Jones, SeanRod, Hudson, Slowey, Matusz, Norris, & Zimmermann? Also, if I am I way off on some of my keepers please let me know?

    Sorry for the long post. Had trouble with getting into the forum.

    Thanks!!!

  5. Chris says:
    (link)

    @Bill Lumbergh:

    I’d go with your 13 keepers + CB Young and Dan Hudson.

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: I have never been so happy to get lost in a reference to something.

    @big o: Cute, O. Cute.

    @GopherDay: Yeah, but they’re not listing people for what fantasy value they will have for 2011.

    @Bill Lumbergh: What problem did you have? I’d go with Krispie and Jones.

  7. royce! says:
    (link)

    @Bill Lumbergh: I’m not sure it will really matter who else you keep, ’cause that team looks unbeatable.

  8. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @GopherDay: I’m surprised they didn’t jump Moore over Hellickson with the way they get bored with Hellickson’s abilities.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    *****Check out Bill James’ projections for Mike Stanton — 85/38/104/.268/5

  10. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Grey: When was Chris Davis guaranteed a spot in the majors?

  11. Andrew says:
    (link)

    Bill James projection for Dominic Brown:
    84 / 26 / 94 / .288 / 28

  12. Black Beard says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Wow. Has the great Bill James always affected fantasy sleepers or is this a recent phenomenon?

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Black Beard: Eh, his projections are unrealistic. Wouldn’t pay too much attention. As Stephen alluded to above, he gave Chris Davis something like 35 homers and 12 steals two years ago.

  14. Black Beard says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yeah, that seems pie in the sky^mancrush.

    Will his projections boost someone like Stanton to the point where the majority of us will be priced out of grabbing him for a reasonable value? Have BJ’s projections given rise to particular players stock for a couple of years now?

  15. Tony says:
    (link)

    Bill James must work for ESPN.

  16. Stephen says:
    (link)

    The thing with projections, you have to compare them within the context of the projected system. Bill James has always had higher numbers than most other projection system. However, when you compare two different projection systems, it’s like comparing High-A California stats to Major League Stats. They’re two different contexts and environments. Bill James system always has the most optimistic projections as well. Nevertheless, his Stanton and Domonic Brown projections are a wee bit unrealistic.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Tony: Ha

    @Stephen: I get it, in context they make sense because they’re all absurd. But that doesn’t make them less absurd.

  18. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yeah, I wish someone would create a projection equation/formula that would be like Park Factors for ZIPs, BJ, and others for all the stats within a projection system and for across projection systems.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Stephen: Sounds like a good project for someone.

  20. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Dora says it to Swiper all the time. And so if a catcher yelled it when Jennings was caught swiping… oh never mind.
    I have two kids under 8, I know these things.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Again, so glad I’m not following what you’re talking about.

  22. I think you’re underselling his power. I will double your estimate and say he hits 10 home runs. What’s the wager? Whomever loses must be the butler for the other person for a full 24 hours. A little silver bell will be involved.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @ChrisV82: 24 consecutive hours? Or spread out over the course of a year as the winner sees fit?

  24. Andrew says:
    (link)

    Bill James hearts Ryan Kalish:
    94 / 20 / 82 / .271 / 43

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Andrew: That might be the most insane one I’ve seen so far.

  26. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    left work early .

    mlb network (tv) is showing the AFL all-star game (repeat) .

    still in the 4th inning , so you have time to catch jeffress .

  27. big o says:
    (link)

    maybe it’s bj’s ego that prevents him from predicting small numbers .

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: Cool, thanks for the heads up!

  29. Quintero says:
    (link)

    I distantly remember Bill James works for Red Sox…maybe that explain the Kalish projection? Hmm…maybe not.

  30. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: That will learn you for referencing with impunity.

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Quintero: He does still, I think. Maybe the job’s done now, not sure.

    @Steve: I know, geez. BTW, I’m on for Friday. Time to start brushing up on my Mayan knowledge.

  32. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: And faux suavity?

    Or is that what got you this far?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Oh, for sure. I’ll be spraying on faux sauvity as I exit my car.

  34. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: “How YOU doin?”

  35. @Grey (#25) – I suppose it’s the winner’s call. I like the idea of a half hour of butlering per week (with 1 week off in the summer and 1 week off in the winter).

  36. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    Looks as if the 2011 tentative MLB schedule is available. Opening Day:

    Thursday, March 31:

    ATL @ WAS
    DET @ NYA
    MIL @ CIN
    LAA @ KC
    SD @ STL

    Tell me if I am mis-reading.

    Me–anxious? :-)

  37. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    LAA @ KC the only 4-game set.

  38. big o says:
    (link)

    @simply fred:

    when i was at camden yards for the last week-end
    of regular baseball , i picked up the 2011 oriole schedule .
    the whole season is already mapped out .
    orioles open up in tampa for a 3 game stint , starting on april fool’s .
    they close at home vs the sawx on 9/28 .
    am already planning my trip , God willing .

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: That’s what I’M saying!

    @big o: That’s awesome!

    @ChrisV82: I’d like you to butler me in 15 minutes increments over the course of 6 months.

    @simply fred: Looks like Latos will be in St. Louis the first start and his owners will freak out when he’s hit.

  40. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @Grey: “Grey, is it too soon to drop Latos?” :-)

  41. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Thanks Grey. Tried to register on the forum, but I get an error saying “The entered e-mail address is already in use.”. I don’t think I’ve ever registered before, so it is kinda weird. Any suggestions?

  42. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @big o: Me lika’ your style!

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @simply fred: Ha

    @Bill Lumbergh: Use a different email? Not sure. Is it the Mr. Trivia email? If so, I don’t see the user in there either.

  44. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yeah, that’s my email address. I’ll try another one.

  45. Bill James is on crack. He probably voted Jeter for Gold Glove again for that matter.

  46. big o says:
    (link)

    who does everyone like ?

    a) 90 – 42 – 111 – .257 – 3

    b) 99 – 7 – 71 – .353 – 7

    keeper league

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: That’s not a fair question, O. A could be 30 years old and have 5 years struggling in the low minors. I want A’s numbers on my team though if he’s doing that again.

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: I like this headline: 42 HOME RUNS FOR 135 SINGLES!

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: One of the funnier nicknames that I don’t use enough is Pasta Diving Jeter. Probably don’t use it because someone else came up with it.

  50. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: What is this Pasta Diving of which you speak?

  51. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Never mind. I asked the internet.

    That’s a good one. Heh.

  52. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Steve: It’s all in the pronunciation, obviously.

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Yeah, maybe it works better when you hear the Yankee broadcasts and they’re always saying “passed a diving Jeter, but sounds like Pasta Diving Jeter.

  54. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Whatever your accent, he shouldn’t have won.

    Those awards are a bit of a joke really, not that I’d be flying in the face of public opinion in these parts by saying that.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Yeah, bit of a popularity contest.

  56. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    so when he dove and missed …
    muffed ?

  57. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @Steve: @Grey: Jeter’s 3.78 RF (range factor) ranked him 20th for shortstops in 2010.

  58. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    Tulo was #1 with 5.06.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: Oh, Jeter’s been muffed plenty of times.

    @simply fred: Not surprising.

  60. The Dude says:
    (link)

    Jennings or Heyward? in 2010 and beyond?

  61. sean says:
    (link)

    Razzhands,

    I just wanted to let you know that I’ve now donated 10% of my winnings this year to Razzball, and I hope that you’ll joining me in doing the same. I’m sure that the rankings, advice, strategy and accessibility that Razzball provided throughout the year comprised at least 10% of your winning formula, so let’s show our thanks for the hard work and long hours by paying it forward.

  62. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @sean: Thanks again, Sean!

  63. Levo says:
    (link)

    Nas reference. very nice.

  64. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: DeJesus to the A’s.

    I won’t mind if you don’t do a post analysing the fantasy impact.

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Levo: Thanks!

    @Steve: Yeah, I won’t be.

  66. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: To be fair, he is one of those guys who can be very useful for a few weeks at a stretch.

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Yeah, and by the time anyone picks him up he’s no longer useful.

  68. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: No, just me.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Implied! No, it happens to everyone.

  70. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: You’re not wrong. Getting in at the START of a Marcus Thames hot streak is one of the highlights of my 2010 fantasy season.

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Maybe you started that hot streak.

  72. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I hadn’t considered that.

    I need to look on the bright side more often!

  73. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    ok .

    you bought my vote .

Comments are closed.