Comments on: Deep League Thoughts: OF

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 19:35:22 +0000

@3FingersBrown, Good point. Something to tuck under our hats for next year’s draft time perhaps. Oh I know about Reimold; I was targeting him in my OBP league this year but didn’t need an OF by the time I got there.

By: Sean

Sean — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 19:25:52 +0000

About Ichiro, this year he finally fell down enough on draft lists to be worth a shot, IMO. 50 picks later than Desmond Jennings, and also after Brett Gardner? Works for me.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 18:21:57 +0000

@steve b, Ha! Does he live up to the name?

By: steve b

steve b — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 17:55:15 +0000

there is a wrassler named Justin Credible

By: 3FingersBrown

3FingersBrown — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 17:29:14 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, That was a great article. You guys don’t need to focus too much on OBP, but it would be cool to throw in the occasional sleepers for OBP leagues – Nolan Reimold takes on a whole ‘nutha level of awesome in that case.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:33:28 +0000

@paddyman, Trust me, I hear ya. My concern about his potential is more a concern of how Scioscia plays him. We don’t have the razzball term ‘Sciosciapath’ for nothing

By: paddyman

paddyman — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:19:36 +0000

I hear your concerns. But they are giving him a shot at 3b and if he performs any way near his form last year in the first few weeks his bat will stay in that line up. No flash in the pan either. His minor league stats align with what he did last year.

By: paddyman

paddyman — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:10:24 +0000

BTW Trumbo has an ADP of 193 in yahoo well below LoMo (138) who is an injury risk. He’s below cespedes (173) unproven and hitting in oakland. Sheeet he’s even below the likes of Martin Prado and Coco crisp. Now if that’s not a sleeper with multi-position eligiblitiy who hit 29 dingers and 89 rbi last year? Call me crazy but you can keep your early round stantons. I love this value.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:08:13 +0000

@paddyman, Had a .287 OBP last year while hitting .249; I love the power potential but the Angels lineup is pretty stacked and he might be fighting for at bats. I’d like to think he gets a lot of playing time, especially at 3B, but I’m just not seeing it personally. Could see Scioscia rotating through Callaspo and Izturis a lot through 3B this year. Not a knock on Trumbo, just more of a distrust of the Mike.

By: paddyman

paddyman — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 14:57:24 +0000

I love that no one talks up Trumbo. I’d take him over werth, BJ and Wells. He has 1b eligiblility and will gain 3b eligibility and will go lower than werth. Now he’s batting in a line up with pujols and possibly a resurgent Kendrys Morales. Watch this space.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 12:20:01 +0000

@kangaroo hops, NP and yes you’re right if those guys are platooning they don’t make your team any better than having Jones. However, this situation is worth monitoring over the first few weeks of the season. Sorry, I just read what I typed and didn’t make it clear to observe and not necessarily take action. Parmalee is a good stopgap since it’s sounding more and more like Morneau is the de facto team DH. Someone has to play first and I don’t see why they’d keep Parmalee up to not play much behind Mauer and Doumit there.

By: kangaroo hops

kangaroo hops — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 08:59:59 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Wow, thanks for the detailed advice. We played one 1B and 2 Util, and CI. I’ve been trolling the wires for all those guys, but my thought is that they are likely to end up in a time share, regardless of who comes out on top. Kila/Allen/Garrett Jones in a blahtoon seem all about the same. If someone is a dedicated everyday starter, I think I’ll pick him up, but if it’s platooning, Jones would be preferable, wouldn’t he? Or Parmelee?

Man, this just gets more ugly the more I talk about it.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 07:25:54 +0000

@kangaroo hops, How many 1Bs do you start?

Dunn is a boom or bust. If you get .240 and 30 HRs it’s worth it but we don’t know that is what you’re getting. It really all depends on what you’re giving up to get it, though, whether that is worth it. Keep your eye on the A’s 1B situation. Are all four 1B hopefuls owned? I’d take a flier still on Kila at this point but would monitor Brandon Allen as well. I have very little faith in Chris Carter or Daric Barton. Some guys to keep tabs on if they’re not owned (I’m looking over yahoo right now) right now would be Kyle Blanks and Shelley Duncan.

By: kangaroo hops

kangaroo hops — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 06:47:37 +0000

In my dynasty league (16 teams x 30 man roster, so everyone is gone) I drafted a killer OF: JUpton, the Dread Pirate, and Bruuuuce. But I paid heavily and missed out at 1B. I’m holding Wigginton, and Robot Jones. I picked up Parmelee cuz I’m grasping at straws. How far up would I have to trade to make a significant difference from where I’m at? For example, is Mayberry going to make much difference from Jones? I’d feel more comfortable withat least Billy Butler or someone halfway down the list, but no bites so far from leaguemates. I’ve tried some offers for Duda and Ike, but no deals. Goldschmitt was drafted way to early by some guy, so I doubt he would part with him. Dunn is a possibility. Do you think that would be an upgrade? It seems like a legit gamble if I can get him cheap enough. Thoughts?

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 06:08:21 +0000

@Tony, No worries, I only offer to share the koolaid, I don’t force people to drink it. We here are a kindler, more gentler cult…

True about season’s past and the average being higher for Teix (career .281). There is definitely potential for him to club 35 while hitting .290, which is a step above even the most wildest interpretations of Giancarlo’s – there I go typing that sexy name again – 2012 projections. For me, I want 120 HRs from my first 4 picks off the board or at worst 135 from my first 5 picks. My deep league thoughts posts start with having one of the top 5 1Bs from the first round. If I have a .300 30HR guy from the first, I don’t mind taking on a .260 35 HR guy in my second round at all since it’ll all balance out. In kind, if I don’t have the 1B, I want Braun or Kemp in the 1st round with Teixiera from the 2nd round. Not at ALL suggesting you go read all my posts but it gives a bit more insight to the full strategy. Of course, you might still call me crazy but at least you know I’m fully certifiable I truly am willing to take on average risk for power and general counting stats, but it’s never stuck me with a team that hit’s below .260 on average.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 05:45:50 +0000

@Chris, Your 2B/SS/MI/CI aren’t up my alley (lots of 10/10 or 15/10 guys that don’t really contribute all that much overall) and Nick Markakis will start the year hurt and was already coming in with downward trends in all departments. The staff after F-Her/Greinke/Hanson might struggle. Hopefully we get that Johan year everyone is expecting out of spring training but I don’t have huge hopes. Cahill is a big question mark going into the season for me as well. You’ll probably want to sell either Jesus or Arencibia for an arm upgrade at some point. I like at least 4 bankable arms and I don’t know if you have that at this point.

Nice nab on Upton in the 6th. I’m not happy he’s hurt but on the same token I’m not seeing signs of a major catastrophe. If Dunn bounces back and is in your UTIL slot for a power upgrade to the lineup you’re in much better shape. You might struggle a bit in that department if he doesn’t. Hunter might be just as sneaky a play as Vernon, though I do like Vernon’s power potential more. In the end, your lineup has potential but really need some ifs to pan out to make it happen (Dunn/Santana/Cahill).

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 05:34:12 +0000

@3FingersBrown, I think Albert Lang did one on OBP. I’d post the link, but wordpress sends me to the spambox when I do. Search ‘OBP, Yeah Razzballers know me’ on Razzball and you should be able to find it. Thanks for the feedback, though. I’ll try and throw it Grey’s way see if there are any ideas formulating.

My keeper league recently switched to OBP over average and I was very happy when we did since I’m obviously the guy who chases the .240 average, 30 HR guys who usually walk a lot regardless

By: 3FingersBrown

3FingersBrown — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 04:18:41 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, I’m not quite as enamored with Stanton as some are but I like that OF you propose.

I really would love to see more OBP coverage… I was about to argue with you about Gordon until I realized that both money leagues I play in count OBP. So yeah, in standard leagues he’s probably not worth a 5th or 6th rounder.

By: Tony

Tony — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 04:02:04 +0000

@Tony, plus the spring injury/tweaks are mildly concerning to me. He’s young so he should be fine, but for some reason, don’t ask me why, im just not on the Giancarlo train yet. Maybe next year….

By: Tony

Tony — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 04:00:03 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, In my RCL I drafted 3rd, I took Braun with that pick, which in a 5 OF’er format I’m fine with, then on the way back i actually did take Teixiera. Stanton went two picks before me and that owner had already picked votto…. Would I rather have had someone else than TEX, sure, but the fact he hit 39 bombs last year, he’s a yankee, and yes he’s had two years of .250 ish hitting he’s only 2 years removed from a 6 yr span of hitting .300. I think he can easily hit .280 again. I hope stanton does what razzballers hope for and if the kid can somehow pull off a .270 or higher average and hit for all the power, well then he’s a beast. I’m just not totally buying in yet. I usually tend to go 1B/3B and stantons gone. He just doesn’t tend to pair well with whatever my first pick is…. and for some reason if he’s only mustered .260 in his first two years he slumps and bats .240? I dont want that outta my 2nd pick.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 03:33:30 +0000

@kangaroo hops, I have my Mariner Moose horns crossed for luck

By: kangaroo hops

kangaroo hops — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 03:24:06 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, As another Mariners fan, you may be right about 38 being too late, and I’m not saying that he’s a Giancarlo II, but I think he’s savvy enough not to hit the same way. Let’s hope!

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 03:12:18 +0000

@kangaroo hops, As a Mariners fan, I’d like to disagree with me too. He’s still a good player, but I don’t think we’re going to see a guy who hits for much extra base power even with a change in approach. Gotta take into consideration the age when evaluating him as well. 38 is pretty late to show your power skills.

By: kangaroo hops

kangaroo hops — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 03:05:19 +0000

I disagree a bit with you on Ichiro. He actually has more power/placement than he is given credit for. He hits a lot of infield singles when he bats leadoff, because it works. But he is an incredibly talented hitter, and can change his hitting style given the situation. I think the 3 hole is great for him–I’d love to see him shake that stereotype he has developed because he has been hitting leadoff for as long as anyone can remember. Now, if I had only drafted him somewhere….

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 02:20:46 +0000

@LadyScorpio, typical 10 teamers have plenty of free agents to grab if/when you need them. I’d be more inclined to have maximum 1 bench bat, most likely Montero in your case since Aybar is a relatively safe SS. A typical 10 team yahoo league (I’m assuming but it seems like it) needs 856runs/220HRs/827RBIs/175SB/.272average. Other than steals, you’re pretty close everywhere from what I can tell.

I’d really suggest reading the article ‘Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS’ on Razzball here for a good idea of where I’m coming from. Sorry, you’ll have to search it on the site; I’d give you the link but wordpress thinks I’m spam when I’ve tried to in previous posts

By: LadyScorpio

LadyScorpio — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 02:02:35 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups,

Thank you for your reply. Just curious as to what positions you’d recommend for the bench (offense) if you were me.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 01:47:48 +0000

@LadyScorpio, Thanks! Grey et al do a good job, I feel lucky getting to write here.

Yeah, my strategy woudln’t really apply to a 10 teamer; you don’t have to take as much risk to build a solid club.

Good team overall, you don’t really have any major faults in any areas except steals but you know that I know that you know we can get those over the course of the year from the FA pool. Not too crazy on keeping a C & an SS on your bench in a 10 teamer but overall there will be moves you can make over the course of the season that’s going to shape your team more than the draft ever did. No qualms really, your team should be competitive as long as you stay active.

By: LadyScorpio

LadyScorpio — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 01:41:47 +0000

Hi Oregon,

Good article. Razzball articles are typically good and have been (in my opinion) great especially over the past few weeks. My league isn’t deep (10 team roto), so I don’t think that I could afford to make some of the selections that you would in a deeper league…too much of a gamble especially with guys like B.J. and Wells. I went for power almost to a fault with my squad especially my OFs. Please rate my offense…

C – Avila
1B – Votto
2B – Kendrick
SS – Aybar
3B – Beltre
OF – Stanton
OF- Hamilton
OF – Holliday
U – Morse
BN – J. Montero
BN – Cozart

Thanks,
LadyScorpio

By: Chris

Chris — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 01:13:29 +0000

I actually followed your formula a bit in my draft. Took Fielder in the 1st, Stanton in the 2nd, and snagged Upton in the 6th. It’s my first year doing a league in this format (Razzball Commenter League) . What do you think of my team:

C J.P. Arencibia
1B Prince Fielder
2B Dustin Ackley
3B Brett Lawrie
SS Derek Jeter
MI Yunel Escobar
CI Michael Young
OF Giancarlo Stanton
OF B.J. Upton
OF Torii Hunter
OF Nick Markakis
OF Austin Jackson
UT Jesus Montero
BN Adam Dunn
BN Cody Ross

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Zach Greinke
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Colby Lewis
SP Trevor Cahill
SP Johan Santana
SP Ryan Vogelsong
SP Phil Hughes
RP Jonathon Papelbon
RP Heath Bell

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 00:37:22 +0000

@chata, That number has been compiled over 150 ABs vs lefties and 480 career ABs in two years; not even a season’s worth of numbers. Meanwhile, Stubbs hit .225 against righties last year and has a career .244 mark against them over 1298 ABs with 976 of those against righties. I was merely pointing out a lack of trust in a manager but if we’re using stats, those don’t really bode well for Stubbs either.