Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Mike Stanton times 5.  That’s really all I want in my outfield this year.  Is that so wrong of me to ask for?  Sadly I know this is not a reality, not even in a fantasy world so I’ll have to make due with 4 Non Stantons…somehow.  I’m not going to lie and say OF is deep in a league setting like this but OF is also where you see the most turnover and opportunities throughout the season.  Coach wants Yonder Alonso’s bat in the lineup, so he throws him in left field.  The Texas outfield is in the infirmary ward, time to go pick up D. Murphy for a couple of weeks.  Just make sure its the Rangers D. Murphy and not the Mets D. Murphy.

My realistic perfect 5 outfield set would start with taking Mike ‘don’t call me Mike, call me Giancarlo‘ Stanton in the 2nd round because I’ve already got my 1B in the first.  My next OF to grab would be B.J. Upton in the 5th or 6th to give me steals without giving up on having power.  After that we fly on down to the 8th or 9th and snag Jayson Werth and then don’t do anything about our OF again until the 13th round taking Logan Morrison.  Then I hold my nose and slide all the way down to the 17th and pick up Vernon Wells.  I’ll be backfilling my gaps with my previous positional needs that I’ve mentioned while putting together my pitching staff.  I am not going to concern myself with speed a huge amount except in the wee hours of the draft.  I have adhered to and subscribed to SAGNOF since before I knew what it was.  Thanks Grey for putting a hard to pronounce acronym on something I once couldn’t describe.

I’ll Avoid:

Alex Gordon – In looking at Alex Gordon’s line last year, I have a hard time finding a fault with it.  Good Runs, RBIs, average, Steals, and HRs.  But scratch and sniff that surface and I have cause for concern.  He’s not a really good basestealer as he was only 17/25.  For you non-math majors that’s a 68% rate, or as I like to call it, the score you got on your last Geometry exam; It wasn’t good then and it’s not good now.  He hit 3rd and leadoff throughout the year.  The runs don’t drop off at leadoff but the RBIs do.  Everything went just right to get that line last year.  If you get 18 HRs, 13 SBs, 65 RBIs and a .285 average, are you happy you drafted Gordon around the 5th or 6th?  If you answer yes, you’re easily happified and I’m not talking to you anymore.

Ichiro Suzuki - This is not because of last year.  To be fair, I’ve been anti-Ichiro for the last couple of years and have been proven wrong.  It’s hard betting against someone with a .326 career average so cut me some slack.  My main issue with Ichiro is his move in the lineup.  The Mariners want to start the year with Chone Figgins (I always like to replace the ‘n’ in his first name with a ‘d’ while pronouncing the ‘CH’ combination correctly.  It makes me feel better as a Mariners fan; you can use any of the various definitions on Urban Dictionary to find out how I feel about Figgins with that information).  This means they want Ichiro to bat 3rd in the lineup.  Last time I checked, infield singles when someone is already on first usually lead to a GIDP.  Ichiro will be 38 this season, has very little power, a high ground ball percentage and is being switched to an RBI position which will decrease his stolen base opportunities.  Have I negative Nelly’d this enough for you yet? Fine, he’s also a potty mouth.

I’ll Go For:

Ben Revere – So he’s not going to win you any HR contests, but you weren’t really looking for HR contestants in the 235 ADP range were you?  Ben Revere is fast.  So fast you didn’t even notice he is being tabbed as an OF starter for the Twins until you saw this post.  In 117 games last year, he stole 34 bases.  If you do what I tell everyone not to do which is extrapolate that over a season, you are finding 47.07692 steals in the late rounds.  How you get that stuff on the right side of the decimal is beyond me, but math doesn’t lie.  Now you understand why my perfect outfield draft doesn’t include going high on basestealers early in the draft *smugface*.

Nolan Reimold – I had about a bajillion of these late round OF flier thingies I wanted to write up but chose Nolan because I like what they’re doing philosophy-wise in Baltimore; filling their lineup with guys whose motto is ‘hit a HR or strikeout’.  It’s like the Blue Jays philosophy minus pitch recognition.  Nolan won’t win you a batting title but if they give him 500+ ABs, you are probably looking at .250 with 20 to 25 HRs.  Think of him as a just in case for Vernon Wells or Logan Morrison.  I wonder if any parent with a family name of Case has ever named their son Justin before?  I also wonder how therapy went for him.

Situation to Monitor: Washington

There are a lot of things I don’t trust about the Nationals lineup this year (I almost went with a situation call in my 2B or SS section because I see Ian Desmond getting the boot, moving Espinosa to SS and having Lombardozzi gap-fill until they call Rendon up later this summer.  Yep, I just cheated; deal with it.  Now back to our OF blurb).  Its not that I don’t like the players involved, I don’t like what management thinks of them.  Washington has tried like mad to get B.J. Upton to be their centerfielder to no avail and might be giving Roger Bernadina a shot this Spring.  They also sorta gave him a shot last spring by bouncing him up and down and in and out…hrm, that sounded a bit obscene.  The point is, the Nationals don’t seem comfortable with Bernadina in a starting role.  Plus they’ve got this little known kid down on the farm named Bryce Harper whom they’re quite smitten with.  I like Bernadina’s skill set, the Nationals don’t and Harper is going to sell a poopton of tickets when he gets called up.  The only way Morse gets moved is if Adam LaRoche is not healthy so Bryce won’t likely play in LF.  Werth is getting paid too much to be sat so he’s going to stay in the outfield.  That leaves Roger and the people who drafted him getting bounced up and down and in and out and not in a good way.

71 Responses

  1. dave says:
    (link)

    ugh … thats an ugly OF .. no thanks

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @dave, to each their own :)

  2. Jim says:
    (link)

    I like the players you picked out for your OF but think u need to mix in some guys that could hit .300, those guys could combine for a .250 .avg

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Jim, your team as a whole only needs to hit about .267. There is average risk in this outfield, for sure, but don’t lean too heavily on 2011 for your stat basis. Werth, Wells and Morrison had down years in the average department last year. All three are closer to .260 or .270 hitters. Giancarlo – man I love typing that name – should ring you up at around .260 as well with BJ Upton being the only real bankable threat in a normal year to hit below .250. If my team only needs to hit .267 to be competitive in a 2 catcher 12 team ESPN league, I haven’t done very much damage to my average with that group so long as they play to their average. My conservative counting stats with this outfield has me netting 100 HRs and 60 SB, roughly 40% of what I need from each category, respectively. All and all, I try not to get too hung up on average; it can skew your perspective on the stats that a player can provide.

  3. Jim says:
    (link)

    Also u still taking BJ that early, even though he gonna miss time with concussion issues.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Jim, Sore back, no concussion issues. Article was written about 6 weeks ago before ugly injuries started coming out of the woodwork and until recently it wasn’t clear he’d miss any time. Depends on how long you think he’ll be out whether he’s worth it. I don’t foresee a long stretch, personally, but would still take him if he slips a couple of rounds. Baseball is a long season.

      • Jim says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups, Got nothing against BJ, but isn’t he basically D. Stubbs who you can get 4-5 rds later? If the value there, i will snag BJ but he was going 4th rd before injury and Stubbs in 9th.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @Jim, Everyone’s got their personal side to things and for me, Dusty ruins a lot of picks that I want to like. With Heisey floating around as the 4th OF on that team, I just don’t trust Baker to do the right thing and sit Ludwick. Not suggesting there’s a timeshare in place, but I know when BJ is back, he’s playing CF. Plus, I like guys who profile for 20+ HRs over the course of a season if I can get them. That said, if I were switching Upton out I’d probably chase Chris B Young who’s going around pick 124 compared to Drew’s 84 on MDC.

          • chata says:
            (link)

            @Oregon Nut Cups,

            in 2 years in the bigs , heisey has hit .180 against lefties .
            can’t blame that on dusty .

            • Oregon Nut Cups

              Oregon Nut Cups says:
              (link)

              @chata, That number has been compiled over 150 ABs vs lefties and 480 career ABs in two years; not even a season’s worth of numbers. Meanwhile, Stubbs hit .225 against righties last year and has a career .244 mark against them over 1298 ABs with 976 of those against righties. I was merely pointing out a lack of trust in a manager but if we’re using stats, those don’t really bode well for Stubbs either.

  4. El Guey says:
    (link)

    Pineda was dropped , thinking of dropping cozart to pick him up, then putting him on the DL and picking up thames/reimold.

    I already have kershaw, romero, lubeke, jgarcia, gio, morrow and ublado

    Thoughts? and thank you!

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @El Guey, Without asking many questions about league size/format/keeper, etc I’ll just say I was not a fan of Pineda before the DL stint came up. Your team doesn’t need the extra arm anyways with the inclusion of Zimmermann in your post below.

  5. El Guey says:
    (link)

    and zimm

  6. jswede says:
    (link)

    so Alex Gordon doesn’t steal a lot or at a high rate. then you propose some average numbers and dismiss him… I see no argument supported whatsoever.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @jswede, I like the player, not the price tag. He’s going near Choo, a guy who had a bad year last year that gave 20/20 and a .300 average for two straight years prior. Those average numbers are nice but not worth their round value when you consider the factors: His RBIs will go down this year if he stays in the leadoff spot as he hit 3rd or 4th in the lineup for 240 ABs last year; runs and RBIs are usually a factor of lineup and opportunity more than they are of skill. For that, I see a slip in RBIs and a slight rise in runs. His steal success rate means 17 is more likely his ceiling than his floor. There are plenty of people seeing an average regression with him with some saying closer to .270, though that’s farther than I agree with. He’s a solid player that is getting overpriced in my opinion.

  7. Does the fact that both Upton and Morrison are gimpy change that strategy?! I’m certainly all in on Stanton this year and liked Werth tho I never ended up taking him anywhere. And if not Stanton, sub in Bruce for clubbing. I have Chris B on a bunch of teams as well, also liking Stubbs this year.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Elijah, LoMo keeps trying to break my heart. He might turn into that oft-injured guy but for where he’s going and what he can do, I am still down for giving him my pick for the year. If you’re skittish on him, target Duda a few rounds later (though they might be leveling out as far as where they go with the hype for Duda and the bad pub for LoMo). My OF suggestion is a bit of a reclamation project, but I have faith in the three with bad 2011′s (Werth, Wells, & LoMo).

      You’ve got the pattern right on OF. Bruce is my backup Giancarlo as well. I’d take either Chris B or Stubbs any time, all depending where my OF is at during that point of the draft.

  8. That's What She Said says:
    (link)

    How “deep” of a league are we talking about where Werth is available in the 9th Rd. and Morrison in the 13th? Werth was selected in the 7th in one of my “deep” leagues and Morrison in the 9th.

    Gotta say, thus far I enjoy the extra content your articles have added to Razzball and the Buhner pic is awesome.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @That’s What She Said, Thanks! This has probably been the least liked article of the bunch. I always lean power heavy and with Werth/LoMo/Wells I figured there might be some raised eyebrows :)

      I was utilizing Mockdraftcentral since it pulls from a lot of different places. It’s the only way to find anything remotely close to a median and the numbers will obviously fluctuate over time and between leagues. Plus, I was writing this up closer to February. Considering how many ‘grab Werth’ articles have come out since then, I’m not surprised by the fluctuation.

      For reference, part of my idea comes from a 12 8 keeper league that starts 5 OF and two at every other position: Catcher through UTIL. 17 hitter slots to fill so I always target power first and worry about speed when I get there.

  9. JeffFromTallahassee says:
    (link)

    Ben Revere was a guy I liked, but from what I read he won’t be getting everyday at-bats and when he gets in the lineup he will used more late in the order. I don’t think he will get enough at-bats to be a good value unless he wins a full time starting role.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @JeffFromTallahassee, That OF is getting stranger and stranger by the day now that we have to consider Doumit as part of the OF platoon. In Roto, you can move him in and out when he starts for those SB, but it’s hard to start the year with him in H2H leagues, for sure. He’s a steals only guy and felt he needed to be featured given his pricetag. It’s a long season as we know. It’s rare the starting lineup on day 1 of the season matches the starting lineup during game 162.

      • DonSlaughtOnslaught says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups, Part of the problem with that–and it ties into Grey’s advice against carrying a bench bat–is that carrying a steals-only guy on your bench for a couple of starts a week is a huge waste of roster space in roto. Also, it is really annoying to not start a SAGNOFer and have him come in to get a steal as a pinch-runner.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @DonSlaughtOnslaught, Yah, that is true. Trust me, if the Twins would just listen to me I wouldn’t have to be trying to justify this guy! :) Still like him, will just have to let the season work its magic. If he’s not the one, there are plenty of SAGNOF’ers in the sea. Part of my mindset comes from playing in a 12 team 30 player roster where we start 5 OF and 2 of everything else (Catchers all the way to UTIL) Leagues like that make it hard to let value sit out on the FA pool for long. For now I’d just grab your yellow highlighter and mark him for later until the Twins figure their shizz out.

  10. The Devil Advocate says:
    (link)

    It looks like your outfield is punting batting avg. Its funny..i love the site and respect the opinions on it, but my philosophy is very different. I think this site underrates pitching, speed and middle infielders. While I agree with the strategies to an extent, not to the degree that grey would advocate. As for this article, I think passing on speed until the end is not a good strategy. I agree to not let it dicate your draft too much, but when you wait on speed and are relying on starting revere or crisp it destroys your counting stats to a much higher degree than a quality speed guy that’s availible in the middle rounds. I hate when people say “why take Bourn/Gardner…I can grab crisp/revere X rounds later.” Yes, but in addition to paying in the hr/RBI dept (like with all speedsters) you’ll also pay with runs and/or avg. Plus, if you’re ignoring speed too much you’d have to start a few of these guys on a regular basis to even be competitive in the category, meaning the counting stats and power that you tried so hard to collect will be compromised later on big time when you’re starting figgins, revere, and pagan. Power is sexy but not always the way to go. Trying to incorporate avg & speed with power in your early picks gives a lot of flexibility. There’s a ton of 20-25 hr 85 rbi guys with no speed availible later on. Those guys don’t kill you anywhere. Their avg will be lower, by nature of being lower tired options, but if you’ve drafted for avg early you can withstand it easily. Ignoring avg and speed early means you’re doomed in avg and will kill your counting stats with the speed guys that you’re forced to start later. And, I know avg can be fickle but their is a certain amount of reliability with early round avg guys…if I start Pujols, h.ram, beltre…I’m pretty sure I’m doing ok avg wise. Its not as fickle with the top guys. Stanton really is a.dunn and I don’t get the obsession. As a rule of thumb, I never pay for a stat line that a player hasn’t achieved yet…and if Stanton was guaranteed to give me last years line exactly..I’ll pass in the 2nd every time. My one cent on a rainy day in NY.

    • Pops says:
      (link)

      @The Devil Advocate, I like the last line about drafting a player based on expectations alone. Stanton went about two rounds before Bruce in my home draft. He needs to have a monster year to justify taking him in the middle of the second round.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @The Devil Advocate, how much power there is available later in the draft depends greatly on the league type. My posts are coming from a deep league perspective. In my 12 team keeper league where we start 17 hitters (5 OF and 2 at every position from catcher to UTIL), there are no Josh Willinghams on the waiver wire. We just drafted last Wednesday and the top two HR hitters from 2011 on the waiver are Miguel Olivo & Derek Lee with 19 apiece. I understand where you’re coming from in a typical league setting where dropping Luke Scott can make sense but that’s definitely not my angle.

      But to approach your point about Bourn & Gardner, they combined for an average of 90.5 runs, 44 steals and a .273 BA. Bourn’s was 30 points above his career average last year, BTW, but Gardner’s was a tad under so we’ll roll with it. I’m going to use Coco but if we’re going to make comparisons, I think we could use Maybin seeing as – like the other three – he was a starter out of the gate and drafted very late (if at all). Those two’s average between them was 75.5 runs, 44.5 steals and a .263 BA. I’m doing a composite so we don’t get too focused on one particular player. Their combined average will help more as will their run totals. But I’m only aiming for about .270 as a team. Not every player needs to hit .300 and if I’m trying to get steals, I got them with a dip in runs and average later in the draft. I can make up those 15 runs and the average with higher end picks that can provide more power than what a Gardner or a Bourn provide. Again, everyone has their philosophy and I do appreciate debate on the subject as if you can’t tell :) Thanks for your cent and good luck this year!

    • Tony says:
      (link)

      @The Devil Advocate, Im with the devil on stanton being overrated, man that sounds bad…. and I kind of agree with the Dunn comparison. If Stanton was at least a 3B or something I’d be more enamored with him, but a .250-.265 hitting OF’er that will probably hit 35 HRs isn’t really that exciting to me. And depending on the format, he’s not worthy of a 2nd round pick at all. I’m in a 10×10 league, 8×8 league and an RCL, I wouldn’t touch stanton in either of the bigger leagues, i see him more valuable as a roto guy. With the spring training tweaks he’s had, im just not seeing taking him in the 2nd round. People fall in love with guys alot because of potential, but what TDA said, Im not paying for a guys “potential” in the 2nd round.

      • Oregon Nut Cups

        Oregon Nut Cups says:
        (link)

        @Tony, Just as a general comparison point, would you be willing to take Mark Teixiera in the late 2nd round? If not, we probably just have very different draft mindsets considering the projections for both are nearly identical.

        • Tony says:
          (link)

          @Oregon Nut Cups, In my RCL I drafted 3rd, I took Braun with that pick, which in a 5 OF’er format I’m fine with, then on the way back i actually did take Teixiera. Stanton went two picks before me and that owner had already picked votto…. Would I rather have had someone else than TEX, sure, but the fact he hit 39 bombs last year, he’s a yankee, and yes he’s had two years of .250 ish hitting he’s only 2 years removed from a 6 yr span of hitting .300. I think he can easily hit .280 again. I hope stanton does what razzballers hope for and if the kid can somehow pull off a .270 or higher average and hit for all the power, well then he’s a beast. I’m just not totally buying in yet. I usually tend to go 1B/3B and stantons gone. He just doesn’t tend to pair well with whatever my first pick is…. and for some reason if he’s only mustered .260 in his first two years he slumps and bats .240? I dont want that outta my 2nd pick.

          • Tony says:
            (link)

            @Tony, plus the spring injury/tweaks are mildly concerning to me. He’s young so he should be fine, but for some reason, don’t ask me why, im just not on the Giancarlo train yet. Maybe next year….

            • Oregon Nut Cups

              Oregon Nut Cups says:
              (link)

              @Tony, No worries, I only offer to share the koolaid, I don’t force people to drink it. We here are a kindler, more gentler cult…

              True about season’s past and the average being higher for Teix (career .281). There is definitely potential for him to club 35 while hitting .290, which is a step above even the most wildest interpretations of Giancarlo’s – there I go typing that sexy name again – 2012 projections. For me, I want 120 HRs from my first 4 picks off the board or at worst 135 from my first 5 picks. My deep league thoughts posts start with having one of the top 5 1Bs from the first round. If I have a .300 30HR guy from the first, I don’t mind taking on a .260 35 HR guy in my second round at all since it’ll all balance out. In kind, if I don’t have the 1B, I want Braun or Kemp in the 1st round with Teixiera from the 2nd round. Not at ALL suggesting you go read all my posts but it gives a bit more insight to the full strategy. Of course, you might still call me crazy but at least you know I’m fully certifiable :) I truly am willing to take on average risk for power and general counting stats, but it’s never stuck me with a team that hit’s below .260 on average.

  11. Pops says:
    (link)

    If forced to choose, would you want Morrison or Butler for your last utility spot?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Pops, Depends on needs at that point. Butler should give you a better average but LoMo has more power. In a vacuum, you could go Butler since we know his floor.

  12. Joe Garrison says:
    (link)

    Yours is the first opinion I have read that suggests Ichiro is such a bad bet this year.

    Take his track record, add in the RBIs from the three hole…

    and you downgraded him.

    Wow.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Joe Garrison, Have a hard time believing in high RBI totals with that lineup and his style of hitting. Of his 2428 career hits leading into the 2012 season, 23% of them are of the infield variety and 81% of them have been singles overall. The highest XBH% he’s had in a season is 6.9% all the way back in 2003 and only 4 seasons of his career above 6% overall. What this all equates to is he’ll need a high percentage of at-bats with players on 2nd or 3rd in order for him to take advantage of the RBI opportunities because he’s not going to hit for much power. When you consider Pablo Sandoval’s line in 2009 – .330 average with 90 RBIs while hitting 25 HRs and 74 XBH total, an XBH% of about 12% – you start to realize the RBI improvement really isn’t that big a deal or strong.

  13. Mike says:
    (link)

    Best last round pick: Bedard, Peavy, Danks, Niese, or Capuano? Thanks!

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Mike, You’re pullin at my heartstrings here with the last 4 on that list, though do like them all to varying degrees. Last round and all those guys available, I have to lean NL first and upside second and go Niese. The good news is they’re probably all out there at some point to pick up so you can keep tabs on them.

  14. Justin This says:
    (link)

    My roommate in college had the family name Thyme. First name Justin. He was late for everything.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Justin This, Ha!

  15. HamburgerTime says:
    (link)

    Hey, happy saturday, sitting with a beer and thinking about trading Jordan Zimmerman and Adam Jones for Madison Bumgardner and Jayson Werth. Who wins that deal?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @HamburgerTime, your average might dip a little with the Werth side but its…um…worth it! Go Bum/Jayson.

  16. Steven says:
    (link)

    Hello,
    My relief pitchers are Marmol,Myers,Capps and K.Jansen.

    Would you consider dropping Jansen for say Broxton? I’m just thinking if Guerra pitches well and keeps the closer role Jansen wouldn’t get any saves. With Myers having SP eligibility i can have a leg up on the competition with 4 closers and playing all 4 everyday(Myers in SP,Marmol RP,Capps RP, and Broxton P slot). Pretty much locking up the Saves category every week with more closers than any other team. Would you consider making this move?

    Thanks for you help

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Steven, One in the hand is worth two in the bush. Though I like Jansen for his K’s regardless of if he gets the saves, always go with the guy getting those SVs since that is why you drafted/picked them up. Keep in mind you’ll have to watch Holland like a hawk, though. KC’s bullpen is still fluid but Broxton gets first stab.

  17. Shmorgie S. Board says:
    (link)

    When to draft BJ Upton and Crawford?

    Considering their injuries, I’m trying to figure where to draft these guys.

    Thoughts? Let’s assume a 12-team league. What rounds would you be comfortable taking Upton or Crawford?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Shmorgie S. Board, If you’re worried, you can knock a couple of rounds off of Upton’s typical go though you might miss him; I’m not overly concerned at this point with him. As far as Crawford is concerned, can never be an answer?!? I hate wrist injuries. Not that he’s a huge power guy but that messes with a guy’s batting, even when it fully heals (think Ortiz circa 2008/2009). You’d miss him where I’d be willing to take him (closer to 10th round in a 12 teamer).

  18. Chris says:
    (link)

    I actually followed your formula a bit in my draft. Took Fielder in the 1st, Stanton in the 2nd, and snagged Upton in the 6th. It’s my first year doing a league in this format (Razzball Commenter League) . What do you think of my team:

    C J.P. Arencibia
    1B Prince Fielder
    2B Dustin Ackley
    3B Brett Lawrie
    SS Derek Jeter
    MI Yunel Escobar
    CI Michael Young
    OF Giancarlo Stanton
    OF B.J. Upton
    OF Torii Hunter
    OF Nick Markakis
    OF Austin Jackson
    UT Jesus Montero
    BN Adam Dunn
    BN Cody Ross

    SP Felix Hernandez
    SP Zach Greinke
    SP Tommy Hanson
    SP Colby Lewis
    SP Trevor Cahill
    SP Johan Santana
    SP Ryan Vogelsong
    SP Phil Hughes
    RP Jonathon Papelbon
    RP Heath Bell

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @Chris, Your 2B/SS/MI/CI aren’t up my alley (lots of 10/10 or 15/10 guys that don’t really contribute all that much overall) and Nick Markakis will start the year hurt and was already coming in with downward trends in all departments. The staff after F-Her/Greinke/Hanson might struggle. Hopefully we get that Johan year everyone is expecting out of spring training but I don’t have huge hopes. Cahill is a big question mark going into the season for me as well. You’ll probably want to sell either Jesus or Arencibia for an arm upgrade at some point. I like at least 4 bankable arms and I don’t know if you have that at this point.

      Nice nab on Upton in the 6th. I’m not happy he’s hurt but on the same token I’m not seeing signs of a major catastrophe. If Dunn bounces back and is in your UTIL slot for a power upgrade to the lineup you’re in much better shape. You might struggle a bit in that department if he doesn’t. Hunter might be just as sneaky a play as Vernon, though I do like Vernon’s power potential more. In the end, your lineup has potential but really need some ifs to pan out to make it happen (Dunn/Santana/Cahill).

  19. LadyScorpio says:
    (link)

    Hi Oregon,

    Good article. Razzball articles are typically good and have been (in my opinion) great especially over the past few weeks. My league isn’t deep (10 team roto), so I don’t think that I could afford to make some of the selections that you would in a deeper league…too much of a gamble especially with guys like B.J. and Wells. I went for power almost to a fault with my squad especially my OFs. Please rate my offense…

    C – Avila
    1B – Votto
    2B – Kendrick
    SS – Aybar
    3B – Beltre
    OF – Stanton
    OF- Hamilton
    OF – Holliday
    U – Morse
    BN – J. Montero
    BN – Cozart

    Thanks,
    LadyScorpio

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @LadyScorpio, Thanks! Grey et al do a good job, I feel lucky getting to write here.

      Yeah, my strategy woudln’t really apply to a 10 teamer; you don’t have to take as much risk to build a solid club.

      Good team overall, you don’t really have any major faults in any areas except steals but you know that I know that you know we can get those over the course of the year from the FA pool. Not too crazy on keeping a C & an SS on your bench in a 10 teamer but overall there will be moves you can make over the course of the season that’s going to shape your team more than the draft ever did. No qualms really, your team should be competitive as long as you stay active.

      • LadyScorpio says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups,

        Thank you for your reply. Just curious as to what positions you’d recommend for the bench (offense) if you were me.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @LadyScorpio, typical 10 teamers have plenty of free agents to grab if/when you need them. I’d be more inclined to have maximum 1 bench bat, most likely Montero in your case since Aybar is a relatively safe SS. A typical 10 team yahoo league (I’m assuming but it seems like it) needs 856runs/220HRs/827RBIs/175SB/.272average. Other than steals, you’re pretty close everywhere from what I can tell.

          I’d really suggest reading the article ‘Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS’ on Razzball here for a good idea of where I’m coming from. Sorry, you’ll have to search it on the site; I’d give you the link but wordpress thinks I’m spam when I’ve tried to in previous posts :)

  20. kangaroo hops says:
    (link)

    I disagree a bit with you on Ichiro. He actually has more power/placement than he is given credit for. He hits a lot of infield singles when he bats leadoff, because it works. But he is an incredibly talented hitter, and can change his hitting style given the situation. I think the 3 hole is great for him–I’d love to see him shake that stereotype he has developed because he has been hitting leadoff for as long as anyone can remember. Now, if I had only drafted him somewhere….

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @kangaroo hops, As a Mariners fan, I’d like to disagree with me too. He’s still a good player, but I don’t think we’re going to see a guy who hits for much extra base power even with a change in approach. Gotta take into consideration the age when evaluating him as well. 38 is pretty late to show your power skills.

      • kangaroo hops says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups, As another Mariners fan, you may be right about 38 being too late, and I’m not saying that he’s a Giancarlo II, but I think he’s savvy enough not to hit the same way. Let’s hope!

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @kangaroo hops, I have my Mariner Moose horns crossed for luck :)

  21. 3FingersBrown says:
    (link)

    @Oregon Nut Cups, I’m not quite as enamored with Stanton as some are but I like that OF you propose.

    I really would love to see more OBP coverage… I was about to argue with you about Gordon until I realized that both money leagues I play in count OBP. So yeah, in standard leagues he’s probably not worth a 5th or 6th rounder.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @3FingersBrown, I think Albert Lang did one on OBP. I’d post the link, but wordpress sends me to the spambox when I do. Search ‘OBP, Yeah Razzballers know me’ on Razzball and you should be able to find it. Thanks for the feedback, though. I’ll try and throw it Grey’s way see if there are any ideas formulating.

      My keeper league recently switched to OBP over average and I was very happy when we did since I’m obviously the guy who chases the .240 average, 30 HR guys who usually walk a lot regardless :)

      • 3FingersBrown says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups, That was a great article. You guys don’t need to focus too much on OBP, but it would be cool to throw in the occasional sleepers for OBP leagues – Nolan Reimold takes on a whole ‘nutha level of awesome in that case.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @3FingersBrown, Good point. Something to tuck under our hats for next year’s draft time perhaps. Oh I know about Reimold; I was targeting him in my OBP league this year but didn’t need an OF by the time I got there.

  22. kangaroo hops says:
    (link)

    In my dynasty league (16 teams x 30 man roster, so everyone is gone) I drafted a killer OF: JUpton, the Dread Pirate, and Bruuuuce. But I paid heavily and missed out at 1B. I’m holding Wigginton, and Robot Jones. I picked up Parmelee cuz I’m grasping at straws. How far up would I have to trade to make a significant difference from where I’m at? For example, is Mayberry going to make much difference from Jones? I’d feel more comfortable withat least Billy Butler or someone halfway down the list, but no bites so far from leaguemates. I’ve tried some offers for Duda and Ike, but no deals. Goldschmitt was drafted way to early by some guy, so I doubt he would part with him. Dunn is a possibility. Do you think that would be an upgrade? It seems like a legit gamble if I can get him cheap enough. Thoughts?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @kangaroo hops, How many 1Bs do you start?

      Dunn is a boom or bust. If you get .240 and 30 HRs it’s worth it but we don’t know that is what you’re getting. It really all depends on what you’re giving up to get it, though, whether that is worth it. Keep your eye on the A’s 1B situation. Are all four 1B hopefuls owned? I’d take a flier still on Kila at this point but would monitor Brandon Allen as well. I have very little faith in Chris Carter or Daric Barton. Some guys to keep tabs on if they’re not owned (I’m looking over yahoo right now) right now would be Kyle Blanks and Shelley Duncan.

      • kangaroo hops says:
        (link)

        @Oregon Nut Cups, Wow, thanks for the detailed advice. We played one 1B and 2 Util, and CI. I’ve been trolling the wires for all those guys, but my thought is that they are likely to end up in a time share, regardless of who comes out on top. Kila/Allen/Garrett Jones in a blahtoon seem all about the same. If someone is a dedicated everyday starter, I think I’ll pick him up, but if it’s platooning, Jones would be preferable, wouldn’t he? Or Parmelee?

        Man, this just gets more ugly the more I talk about it.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
          (link)

          @kangaroo hops, NP and yes you’re right if those guys are platooning they don’t make your team any better than having Jones. However, this situation is worth monitoring over the first few weeks of the season. Sorry, I just read what I typed and didn’t make it clear to observe and not necessarily take action. Parmalee is a good stopgap since it’s sounding more and more like Morneau is the de facto team DH. Someone has to play first and I don’t see why they’d keep Parmalee up to not play much behind Mauer and Doumit there.

  23. paddyman says:
    (link)

    I love that no one talks up Trumbo. I’d take him over werth, BJ and Wells. He has 1b eligiblility and will gain 3b eligibility and will go lower than werth. Now he’s batting in a line up with pujols and possibly a resurgent Kendrys Morales. Watch this space.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @paddyman, Had a .287 OBP last year while hitting .249; I love the power potential but the Angels lineup is pretty stacked and he might be fighting for at bats. I’d like to think he gets a lot of playing time, especially at 3B, but I’m just not seeing it personally. Could see Scioscia rotating through Callaspo and Izturis a lot through 3B this year. Not a knock on Trumbo, just more of a distrust of the Mike.

  24. paddyman says:
    (link)

    BTW Trumbo has an ADP of 193 in yahoo well below LoMo (138) who is an injury risk. He’s below cespedes (173) unproven and hitting in oakland. Sheeet he’s even below the likes of Martin Prado and Coco crisp. Now if that’s not a sleeper with multi-position eligiblitiy who hit 29 dingers and 89 rbi last year? Call me crazy but you can keep your early round stantons. I love this value.

  25. paddyman says:
    (link)

    I hear your concerns. But they are giving him a shot at 3b and if he performs any way near his form last year in the first few weeks his bat will stay in that line up. No flash in the pan either. His minor league stats align with what he did last year.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @paddyman, Trust me, I hear ya. My concern about his potential is more a concern of how Scioscia plays him. We don’t have the razzball term ‘Sciosciapath’ for nothing :)

  26. steve b says:
    (link)

    there is a wrassler named Justin Credible

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
      (link)

      @steve b, Ha! Does he live up to the name?

  27. Sean says:
    (link)

    About Ichiro, this year he finally fell down enough on draft lists to be worth a shot, IMO. 50 picks later than Desmond Jennings, and also after Brett Gardner? Works for me.

Comments are closed.