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Hey y’all, let me know if you’ve heard this one before.  Brett Lawrie is a fantasy sleeper for the YYYY Fantasy Baseball Season!  In fact, this isn’t even a new post.  I just went back from all the posts between 2012 and 2014 and did a mash-up of them.  It was hard to get them all the same font so be thankful this doesn’t read like a ransom note!  Speaking of notes, it feels like every spot you’ve taken Lawrie the last few years has left you with an I.O.U. almost immediately after leaving the draft table, doesn’t it?  That kind of pain is hard to get over, especially in deeper leagues where your team can falter just on a few bad picks or rise quickly on a few good ones.  So what makes drafting Lawrie in the year of the sheep make me feel like the GOAT you ask?  Well read on.  Here’s my take on Brett for you late round misfit seekers for 2015 Fantasy Baseball…

Before we talk about what what Lawrie could do for your team in 2015, let’s discuss what he hasn’t done at the major league level to date.  He hasn’t hit for a great average, despite expectations for a reasonable one with just a .265 average to his name over 1431 plate appearances and ended 2014 with a .247 average so it’s clear he’s not an average guy.  Also, he only has 43 HRs and 29 SB over those PAs so it’s clear he’s not a power nor a speed guy either….ugh, why am I writing about him?  Oh, I know why.  You know what else he hasn’t really done at the major league level?  Stayed healthy.  Pardon me for not being able to write off a talented kid after what amounts to a little over 2 seasons’ worth of games to his name over 4 actual seasons.  Baseball is a rhythm game.  Bouncing on and off DL stints doesn’t make it easy to find such a thing and looking a little further into the stats from his disastrous 2014 campaign, there are some rays of hope.  His .174 ISO was the highest it’s been since becoming a lineup fixture in 2012 while his BABIP of .260 was the lowest.  So amid all things worrisome, I do see something good on the horizon for a guy who turns 25 on January 18th.  Yes, he’s still young.  His first major league at-bat was at the age of 21 when you were all over him like ebola coverage on CNN.  Now it’s like he has ebola and you won’t go near him.  Y’all are fickle, I’m just looking at him and his upside being worth way more than he’ll go for in 2015 drafts.  Lawrie has the potential for a 20/15 season.  Not to get all comp’y on y’all but that season Anthony Rendon just had out of nowhere in 2014 that’s vaulted him to the top of 2B ranks?  Yeah, Lawrie is just 6 months older than Rendon and still has that kind surprise in him; perhaps more.  If you drafted Rendon in 2014, you were doing so off the heels of data that said he’d really done nothing to date but had the pedigree to be something great so I’m asking you to be kind and draft Lawrie with the same notion in mind.  Man, unintended rhyme is the best kind of rhyme (and my only kind).

Honorable 3B Deep League Mentions

Chris JohnsonHe’ll probably be hitting in a good RBI spot in the Atlanta lineup.  That’s good!  Then you actually look at Atlanta’s lineup.  That’s bad…but then you look at his career .283 average.  That’s good!  Then you notice the 55 career HRs.  That’s bad…in the end, you can pray for a return to his 2013 but really, if you draft him you’re probably getting his 2012 with better RBI numbers.  It’s a’ight but he’s no game changer.

Pedro AlvarezSo let’s just say for argument’s sake that Alvarez’ best year or years are behind him.  Let’s say he’s never going to hit 30+ HRs in a season again because he didn’t do it last year.  Ok, fine.  Well then can we say he’s no longer the same profile as a hitter because he cut his K-rate by 5% and upped his walk rate above 10% for the first time in his career?  Maybe he still struggles for average but 25 HRs seems like a reasonable bet.  The only issue is, his name is gonna float him up draft boards even if he’s ranked low because 3B is actually fairly thin this year.  Hrm, I’m talking about how thin 3B is in Pedro’s blurb.  Something’s wrong about that…

Trevor PlouffeWant to hear something interesting?  On a per game basis, the difference between Plouffe and Evan Longoria last year was bordering on null.  Plouffe had the higher ISO (.165 to .151) while Longoria had the better HR/FB rate (10.8% to 8.3%) but the rest of it is like Alex Rodriguez kissing himself in the mirror.  Granted, 2014 was a down year for Longoria but he was still the 7th best 3B according to the end of season rankings last year.  My only issue is I believe Plouffe’s ceiling is Longoria’s floor.  Hey, keep it down up there!  I can hear Jaime Faith Edmondson squealing!  That’s Plouffe yelling at Longoria through the floorboards.  And also got to learn Jaime Faith Anderson is a squealer.  Who knew?