Comments on: Deep League Thoughts: 1B

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 20:16:19 +0000

@MH, No Oriole is safe! I like Reimold but he should’ve been starting the last 2 years and hasn’t been. I like his skill set but I don’t know if he’s safe this year. There’s a reason Baltimore is at where they’re at

I like Aviles this year and did a Greydar post on him because of it. His only issue seems to be PT. I’d like to see 600 AB (more likely is 450), but he’s going to probably hit 9th all year. Great bench bat, though, no question. Wish he’d gone cheap enough for me. Keep your eye on Eduardo Nunez for steals potential in NYY. Jeter/A-Rod are gonna DH plenty this year if the DL doesn’t nab them first.

By: MH

MH — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 20:11:43 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Oh yeah, absolutely. The league I got LaHair in is 12 teams, 27 deep with just three bench spots, and I forget exactly where I took him but it was somewhere in the 25-27 range. I actually dropped Reimold instead of him to pick up a pitcher after dealing some pitching for hitting. The Orioles seem more intent on giving Endy Chavez some of Reimold’s ABs and in a league with so few bench spots positional versatility is huge (I also have Mike Aviles on my bench who I also took late and may have some sneaky upside this year) and there’s a greater cost to rostering a player who won’t play full time. I do think Reimold is the safer bet to produce some positive value, but LaHair has a bigger upside, and I’m weak at first base so I wanted some extra potential there in particular.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 20:03:36 +0000

@MH, Yeah, those types of trades are league based; most leagues have someone who gets a rush of blood to the head (no the other one) when they see a rookie. I don’t think he’s saying everyone has to be sexy, just moreso that if you’ve got that name on your bench, don’t hesitate to move him for a useful piece that fits your needs if someone is clamoring after them. Vernon Wells is my 5th OF on two of my teams and no one will want to trade for him until May. But if he were Dayan Viciedo or De Aza, I’d probably get some buzz by trades for them right now if a team were in need.

I wouldn’t have taken LaHair if he didn’t go after the 20th round. At that point, people were just solidifying their rosters. That’s the time I want to start swinging for the fences. Too often those ‘sleepers’ creep up into the early to mid teens in deeper leagues when they really shouldn’t.

By: MH

MH — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 19:55:45 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Hah, fair enough! I definitely understand that feeling, but these guys can be such wild cards they’re work taking fliers on. Especially in a ballpark like Wrigley, a guy like LaHair can see his career path altered by a particularly well/poorly timed weather system.

I actually drafted Morse on a bunch of teams last year, but because I had also drafted Alex Gordon and Morse got off to a slow start, I dropped Morse on almost all of them.

Still, this is why I don’t entirely agree with Grey on only drafting sexy names for bench hitters and otherwise ignoring bench hitters altogether. Sexy names are great, but so is actual upside. A combo of the two is ideal, but usually when that exists, there’s some other risk (i.e. Brandon Belt and playing time) or they’ll be drafted much earlier. If you can hit on a guy like Gordon or Morse though, its such a massive advantage for your season that I’ll usually take fliers on at least one guy like that, this year on my major teams LaHair is one and the other is Mat Gamel (and I’m only talking seriously deep plays here, not like Lucas Duda or Alex Presley, who I also own on many teams). I prefer the actual production to potential trade value–I think Grey overestimates the combination of likelihood and amount another owner would be willing to pay for if you do get lucky and hit on a Bryce Harper.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 15:59:04 +0000

@MH, 100% with you on the scenario but I had my LaHair moment last year and his name was Kila. I don’t feel like these types of players get comfortable and they’ll press, knowing if they don’t perform, they’re out by the end of May. Though I did pick him up in the 26th round of my 30 player 12 teamer this year, I don’t have particularly high hopes. If I get a 20/80 season out of him with a .260 average, I’ll be extremely happy given he’s my 1B,LF,RF back up.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 15:51:56 +0000

@Will, No arguments here but in a deep league, he’s going to be owned. When you consider the alternatives in that neighborhood of the draft are a guy like Garrett Jones, 25/90 with a .270 average looks mighty appealing.

By: MH

MH — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 15:22:23 +0000

The situation I’m monitoring is CHC. Brian LaHair is actually a fascinating deeper sleeper. He hit 40 HR between triple-a and the majors last year, and while it was the PCL, it was one of the American divisions, which aren’t quite the same deal as the Pacific divisions (they play roughly neutral). While most seem to believe he’s only keeping Anthony Rizzo’s seat warm, the projections see him hitting 25-35 homers if he gets a full season. If he doesn’t produce, then Rizzo gets another shot, this time in much friendlier confines, but I’m thinking it’s a smart move for Theo to see what LaHair can do before handing the reigns over to Rizzo. Even if both Rizzo and LaHair impress, the Cubs outfield is decrepit enough that there might be room out there for both Brett Jackson and LaHair by then anyway. LaHair has better odds than a lot of others of being this year’s Morse.

By: Will

Will — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 14:58:42 +0000

Adam LaGross

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 14:27:16 +0000

@thefaketom, Unless you can package and upgrade to someone who needs MI help, there’s not much you can do except wait and pray Howard comes back strong. Team looks strong overall, no glaring holes anywhere. Staff looks strong for K’s. Volquez and Filthy Sanchez might tie you to the WHIPping post here and there but the other three should balance them out; you’re pretty much going to strike out the league Good team overall.

My bald self is more on the Braun side of things. Never had Dewars; more partial to Scotch.

By: thefaketom

thefaketom — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 06:52:56 +0000

soooo…what should I do when Berkman is my 1B? I snagged Kemp at #3 (according to grey it should have been Braun, rudy said Kemp…I’m more partial to the ‘fro than the ‘stach {mainly because I can grow a ‘stach and it’s more human and obtainable than a ‘fro})…

Overall regular 5×5 h2h (I CAN TRADE NEXT SEASONS DRAFT PICKS)
C-Weiters
1B-Berkman
2B-Uggla
3B-Beltre
SS-Aybar
OF-Kemp
OF-Stanton
OF-Jennings
UTIL-Camron/Howard/Cepedes/Cozart/Hill

SP-Greinke
SP-Bumgardner
SP-Sanchez
SP-Volquez
SP-Sanchez

(Shit load of RP’s for saves/k’s/era/whip)…like five total; three closers, one will be closer JANSEN, one handcuff ROMO…

fyi GOD I love Dewers white label.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 03:36:27 +0000

@chata, yeah, I got nailed every time I hit reply today so I’m thankful as well

By: chata

chata — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 03:02:00 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups,

thanks for taking care of that .

it was a double-whammy sort of thing .
once when i read the article .
again when i read the posts .

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 02:50:09 +0000

@Black Beard, His OBP would hurt but he’s still good with the counting stats. Just depends on what else is available. He loses some value but not all.

By: Black Beard

Black Beard — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 02:26:01 +0000

Is Bourjos a guy you should just forget about in OBP leagues? Looking through the projections his OBP appears a bit brutal.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:31:59 +0000

@chata, we’ll let the web guys know. Thanks!

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:31:35 +0000

@Tony, Yeah, he puts the ball in play when he swings. If his K% were bad, it would be a major issue but he can repeat his .290 average. I can see the Votto lite comparison since there’ll be more steals and less HRs, at least this year. Not against him, just would like my HR ceiling from 1B to be closer to 30 than 25.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:23:50 +0000

@wovenstrap, Your first 8 are your first 7 That’s a pretty stacked staff. Peavy & Worley are wildcards but I wouldn’t say they have splits, per se. Starting 5 would always be based on matchups when you have 8 strong, but in a vacuum and it’s 5×5, I’d say Greinke, CJ, Latos, Gio, and Anibal but really, any of those first 8 could be part of a starting 5.

By: chata

chata — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:20:41 +0000

my deep thought : 1A

screw nova science now
and their voice ads .

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:18:30 +0000

@Lubey, since you have IP as a stat for 3 points, I would say no. You’re going to get a max of 60 or 70 IP out of an RP in a given year. SP still hold their weight.

By: Lubey

Lubey — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:12:37 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Hey thanks for the response man. I will def keep the high power/low avg guys in mind while im drafting tonight.

I have another question for you. He changed the pitching so that now a win is worth 10pts and a save is also worth 10pts. Does this mean that starters and closers should be drafted equally?? Thanks again.

By: Tony

Tony — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:03:32 +0000

is it me or does hosmer feel like votto-lite? he could soph slump it, but then again he could take the next step….

19/11 and .293 in his first year? not too shabby.

34 BB and 82 K? that’s not that terrible. And can be improved upon.

Again it’s all about upside with him. For dependibility you better grab a 1B early.

By: wovenstrap

wovenstrap — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 22:39:00 +0000

My SPs are Greinke, CJ Wilson, Latos, Gio, Hudson, Aribal, Marcum, Beachy, Peavy, Worley. If you had to pick a starting 5 from that group, who are they? Who are #6 and #7? Should any of them be spot-started based on splits?

Thanks!

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 22:20:39 +0000

@Slappy, I was trying to showcase targets that were going later than the 18th round if possible or at least people that aren’t being talked about seemingly everywhere you look for sleeper potential but I hear ya.

Cozart makes sense with Hanley since we don’t know for sure what he’s going to provide this year or how fully healed he is. Not a Michael Young/Carlos Lee guy and I’d have to assume you took Cano in the first based on the rest of your roster. As you can tell, I would rather have a 1B from there. It looks like you took on a lot of risk by going after both Kendrys and Dunn. If everyone’s healthy and functioning to their maximum, you should have a pretty good team but that’s a big if.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 22:15:07 +0000

@Mike, He’s making the team, it looks like. The bigger question is, is there any space in Bochy’s head to put him in the lineup? I’d like to think so, but we have to wait and see. Potential is there if he can get his ABs this year.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 22:13:57 +0000

@Lubey, Having no average makes it just fine to draft a guy like Mark Reynolds a little higher. Your high power/low average guys in general move up, especially the ones who walk alot; steals only guys move down. The higher the SLG%, the more you should want them.

Stats like hitting for the cycle, CG, SHO, Pefect game, etc don’t really change anything since it’s H2H. Someone is going to get lucky one week, not lucky the next. Those are crapshoot stats.

Sorry about the link issue. My computer let me know exactly where the link led to or else I would not have clicked either.

By: Slappy

Slappy — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 21:39:35 +0000

You might try Adam Dunn and Kendrys Morales. That’s what I’m going for, or went for in my later drafts. Looks something like this:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG

C-Ianetta
1B-Dunn
2B-Cano
3B-Zim
SS-Hanley
OF-Kendrys
OF-Choo
OF-Cespedes
Util-Michael Young
Util-Brett Lawrie
Util-Carlos Lee
BN-Cozart

Zach’s on the team, well, ’cause he’s named Zach.

By: Mike

Mike — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 21:02:49 +0000

Will Belt make the Giants roster? If so, will he get everyday at bats? Right now I have him as my #5 OF.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 20:20:46 +0000

@SwaggerJackers, keepers makes it harder to get those top end 1B and probably put a strangle on the 1B market if Morse moved up. Would prefer to start Cuddyer at 2B if he has it or OF but can’t fault it when the market is tight.

Parm is solid just nothing great. Think 12 to 15 HRs and a .280′ish average. Have very little faith in Smoak but if he can find his groove, could hit .250 20 HR. Not excited about either.

By: SwaggerJackers

SwaggerJackers — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 20:04:59 +0000

I’m all in on the tandem of Cuddyer and Ike Davis as my 1Bs in both leagues I’m in. The top guys were all kept, didn’t trust Konerko, Berkman or Hosmer and Morse still went higher than I expected.

Any thoughts of Parmelee or Smoak? Parm looked solid at the end of last season and has continued to hit well this spring.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 20:04:54 +0000

@Project_Badass, I’d make that trade in a keeper.