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Welcome to the first Deep Impact of the year. Did you miss me? Good, because I didn’t miss you. So there.

Remember, the Deep Impact series is aimed towards a different audience than your regular re-draft leagues. That’s because we do things deeper and harder, with special sauce. And while there are many different formats and scoring systems for deep leagues, there are elements we can create a context with. All deep leagues have some sort of dynasty mechanism, which favors younger and/or cost-controlled players. Along with that aspect, you’ll have a robust MiLB system, usually with multiple drafts (MLFAD, FYPD) and escalating long term contracts that attach to those players once activated. And last, but not least, you are most likely dealing with leagues that have anywhere from 15 to 30 teams, NL-only, AL-only, more advanced scoring categories (OBS, W+QS, TB, S*2+H, etc.) and you can even add simulation leagues like Strat-O-Matic or Scoresheet into the mix. We basically have to smash all those things into one sandwich, and then add your usual facets: 2013 production, lettuce, 2014+ potential production, tomatoes, injury risk, bacon, positional scarcity, etc.

This week, we’ll be going over guys I think are too expensive and/or too risky — overvalued in their current state. Remember, it doesn’t mean they have the suck. The most important aspect in advanced leagues is value. That’s what our goal is here. And depending where you are in your league, these summaries can either help you with an inaugural draft, or, if you are already some x amount of years in, you can look to trade these guys while their value is at the highest.

Now, without further ado…

Pedro Alvarez – You could say expectations were pretty low going into 2012. So low, I sent Hilary Swank to go check it out. Yes, I made a funny with The Core. Just wait until G.I. Joe 3: Hey Cobra, Do U Like Deez? comes out, you’ll be crying tears of blood. Anyhoo, Alvarez busted out to sorta fulfill some of his potential, hitting 244/317/467 with 30 homeruns. But he strikes out a lot. Times two. Only Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn whiff more. Low contact, high strike-out players usually don’t survive at the Major League level. While I will admit there could be some projection left here, and the power is tantalizing in such a low-run environment, those two things are already baked in the price, thus making him overvalued. A good alternative with a similar skill set who will be undervalued is Will Middlebrooks.

Chris Davis – I could basically take what I said about Pedro Alvarez and paste it here. Davis has been, described in the best light, uneven the last 5 seasons. His value lives on the outskirts of relevancy because of three things — Strikeouts, Power, and BABIP. In every one of the past five seasons, one, if not more of those, have completely deflated his effectiveness. Long story short, a BABIP of 315-335 is required for him to have positive value. Basically, it’s the difference between a 25-30 HR year or a 10-15 HR year. I’d rather not bet on volatility like that, especially when he’s being drafted as a 270/330/480 guy. He’s more likely a 250/300/420 guy going forward.

Josh Hamilton – Just to save time, my expert summary for Hambone goes like this: He’s a pony I never want to ride. I wanted to do a My Little Pony’s joke here, but unlike fellow Razzballer Sky, I don’t have time, or, more importantly, the inclination to watch that stuff. Hamilton’s production can be as good, if not better, than the rest of his tier. But it’s just too difficult to predict what his output is going to be. He could have 200 PA. He could have 650 PA. He could hit 35 homeruns, or he could hit the DL for 35 games. Three times in one season. If you’ve sensed a theme with the other guys on this list, you’ll recognize it here as well… there is just too much variation to play with. I’d rather go with Jay Bruce, Bryce Harper, or Joey Bautista.

Aaron Hill – Notorious for following up great years with nasty Ebola infused season-long travesties, his value simply is too high at this point. While he’s still only 31 and the biggest pessimism comes from a fluky BABIP driven career, there will be just too many people buying him with the keystone being pretty shallow. He may again contribute to all 5 categories, but I’d rather try to find the undervalued 2012 Aaron Hill for 2013. Maybe someone like Dustin Ackley?

Adam Jones – Look, I’m not saying Jones is a bad player to have on your team. I would categorize him the same why I categorize the area around my navel — nifty. Tread lightly, Jones will be drafted higher then he needs to be, at a position where it’s pretty easy to find power/speed combo-punches. Don’t believe me? Take it from Grey by checking out his Top 20 OF and Top 40 OF. Just look at guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Alex Gordon, who all could put up similar slash lines at a cheaper cost.

Yadier Molina – First, let’s get this out of the way. Defense isn’t a category. Oh, wait, unless it is, like in Scoresheet. If so, I’d put him behind Posey and inflate the buying rate accordingly. But if we are just referring to all the other formats, I really can’t endorse paying for catchers… at all. I don’t usually punt the position, but I never touch the top-5, and in most cases, the top-10 simply because of the attrition rate, the obligatory 140-game ceiling, and the lack of any offensive ooompphh!. I’m specifically throwing Molina out there because he represents the very best of Ackbar’s IT’S A TRAP! meme. He’s a top-5 guy, offensively speaking. He just put up a nice 20/65/76/12 year, and he bats over .300. But remember. He’ll be 30 this year, an age where catchers start declining. You also never want to rely on something that fluctuates so violently like batting average. Case in point, just two seasons ago he hit .262. And, in the scheme of things, 15/60/60/5 are numbers you can makeup somewhere else while buying Alex Avila, Ryan Doumit, or even A.J. Ellis a few tiers later.

Josh Rutledge – Look, I get it. I’m going to get bonked for putting him here. The power and positional scarcity go together like a rum and coke. I know. But I’m worried and I need to let you know about it. Cause I don’t know, therapy blows. Remember, I’m not telling you to avoid him, but I’m seeing him going pretty darn high. So much so that there really is no deal to be had here. You are essentially buying a 20/20 guy. Yes, he could get there. The contact rate looks good, the speed is there, and after changing his stance to a more upright posture, the power also has a reason to stay. But keep in mind that he was never regarded highly as a prospect, and not many Major League players can survive with a <3.2 BB%. Some guys have that elite hand/eye skill via their hit tool, but it can decline rapidly because of pitcher adjustments. If you see him go too early, don’t fret, there are plenty of options that could net you a similar slash. Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins come to mind.

Chris Sale – Yes, last season’s numbers are bauce. That much is certain. But let’s be honest here. His arm is a ticking time bomb. And it will explode. Granted, it may not be this year, but it may be. It’s unfortunate to say that all my concerns are health related, but there is a huge ringing noise happening. Take a look at his velocity. Once pitchers move from the bullpen to the rotation, they lose one to two miles per hour. Sale lost almost four. And if you look even closer, you’ll notice that most of that velocity loss was apparent in the last three months. With the innings increase, the loss in velocity, and the documented concerns of his elbow, I’m playing no touchy.

Next week, we’ll go over some undervalued guys.

You can put your pants on now.

Haha, just kidding. Though I should prolly put mine back on.

  1. BucLover says:
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    I took Derek Jeter in the 11th round, last night. It was my only “brain freeze moment” of my first real draft of the season. Reacting to my severe buyer’s remorse, I picked up Espinosa in R13. Josh Rutledge is a FA in my league (12 team, 7×6 roto, yahoo). How would you sort out my SS position? Thanks for the help!

    My lineup-
    Posey
    E5
    Brandon Phillips
    Aramis Ramirez
    Jeter/Espinosa
    McCutchen
    Bruce
    Willingham
    U-Aoki
    U-Morales
    Latos
    Gallardo
    Matt Moore
    Niese
    Minor
    Milone
    Betancourt
    Cishek
    Carpenter
    Belt
    Rasmus
    Will Myers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Jeter’s okay, no real need for both him and Espinosa… Kinda weird Espinosa went that late, so you got good value on him… Your hitting looks weak on speed, pitching looks very solid…

      • BucLover says:
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        @Grey: I agree on the speed. I knew I’d be adjusting for that. Actually, Rajai Davis and Bonafacio are available. Would you consider dropping Rasmus, Belt, Carpenter, or Jeter for one or both of those two guys?

        • BucLover says:
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          @BucLover: oops..Matt Carpenter

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
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            @BucLover: Oh, that makes sense. Yeah, I think either Rasmus or Belt are the most expendable here. I’m leaning more Rasmus in that regard though. Grey might have a different take though.

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
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            @BucLover: (Just to clarify, I thought it was Chris Carpenter.)

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @BucLover: I agree with everything Grey said. I don’t think Rasmus would be as useful as Bonafacio, maybe get some cheap speed out of the MI hedge. But if its a redraft league, there’s really no reason to carry Carpenter. I’d drop him.

  2. Piranhaman says:
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    hmmm.. very good article!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Piranhaman: Thanks! But I once fed my goldfish rice.

      Moral of the story? Stay away!

  3. Nick says:
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    Hi guys, just drafted my RCL team last night. Using the War Room with Grey’s projections I’m in first place by a country mile…but of course the season hasn’t started and things could turn south quickly. What do you think?

    C Perez
    1B Fielder
    2B Kinsler
    3B Sandoval
    SS Andrus
    MI A. Escobar
    CI Berkman
    OF Bautista
    OF A. Jones
    OF Crawford
    OF Suzuki
    OF Markakis
    Util G. Jones
    bench Bonifacio

    Latos
    Zimmerman
    Moore
    Beckett
    Iwakuma
    Nathan
    Wilhelmsen
    Madson
    Santos
    Veras
    Cook

    Going to pick up another starter – there are some good FA starters – once one of my players goes on the DL (probably Madson.) What do you think?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Nick: Looks pretty bauce. Keep your tabs on Zimmerman’s dead arm. I’m iffy on Beckett, but that’s a good setup overall.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Nick: But yeah, keep your eyes out for starters.

      Do you have any names to throw out in FA?

    • centerfieldballhawk says:
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      @Nick: With the exception of saves, I hit all of my targets. You’ve got some healthy competition. I’m concerned that two teams autodrafted last night, which may hurt our league competitive factor.

  4. Beau says:
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    12 team H2H 8×8 keeper…got offered Tulo and Harvey for Ryan Zimmerman and Gio. Planning on taking it. Morrow instead of Harvey?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Beau: I’m okay with that. If you are taking Tulo, I might take Harvery instead of Morrow so as not to get bashed with the potential injury bug. But if you want to go full high risk/high reward, you could gamble with Tulo/Morrow.

  5. Crotch Potatoe says:
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    Drafted Saturday in a long-running 11 team dynasty roto league–categories are R/RBI/HR/BA/OPS/SB-CS and ERA/WHIP/Ks/Wins/S+H-BS and Innings per start. Thoughts on the lineup? May need more power and already got offered Trumbo for Aoki…

    C-Hanigan
    C-M. Montero
    1B-Rizzo
    2B-A. Hill
    3B-Miggy
    SS-A. Escobar
    MI-N. Walker
    CI-P. Alvarez
    LF-Kubel
    CF-Rios
    RF-Choo
    U-R. Howard
    U-B. Belt
    U-Aoki
    Bench-Hart/Rasmus/Brown/Tavares/Span/D’Arnaud

    SP-Weaver
    SP-Bumgarner
    SP-Lester
    SP-Beckett
    SP-Niese
    SP-Tillman
    SP-Griffin
    RP-Motte
    RP-Perkins
    RP-Frieri
    RP-Rondon
    Bench-Jimenez/Danks/Cashner/Wheeler/Miller/Skaggs/Madson/McGee/Crow

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Crotch Potatoe: You seem to be fine power wise. And you’ll have Hart back in a couple of months…

      I’m okay with the trade, but if it were my team, I’d hold.

    • Hal Incandenza says:
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      @Crotch Potatoe:

      I don’t know the settings of your league, but Rios only appeared in RF last year.

  6. Rags says:
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    Asked Grey already, but wouldn’t mind your opinion too, Jaywrong.

    League is 17 team mixed roto dynasty daily league (with holds and saves as separate categories). In a slow draft and coming up on my 9th round pick. My infield is set, I’ve got 2/3 of my OF and 2 pitchers. Is the 9th round too early to pick a closer? The only one off the board so far is Kimbrel (and Aroldis). My other option is to take an old OF that everyone is avoiding because it’s dynasty, like Beltran or Worth, or a third SP (Homer Bailey-ish). So SP, RP or old slugger?

    Thanks!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Rags: I’m actually okay with Werth there, I think if he’s healthy, a 15/10 is automatic. I think you can get away with drafting closers later out of the Huston Street’s and Rafael Betancourts.

      Since its dynasty, maybe aim for Addison Reed. Keep an eye on guys who could close, like Vinnie Pestano, and draft on the back-end.

      Personally, I just hate drafting closers high.

      Actually, now that I think of it, maybe its a good time to pull down a starter if you have your infield and most of your OF set. Bailey-ish would work. Any other names you are thinking of?

      • Rags says:
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        @jaywrong: Bailey, Beckett, Peavy, Haren, EJax, Cahill, Fiers, Niese, Burnett. Or Werth, Beltran, Nelson Cruz, Victorino, Suzuki. Fwiw, it’s 6X6 with OBP added.

        On the one hand, I’m used to the 5 OF format (non-dynasty) instead of LF/RF/CF and it pains me to see some of these guys fall this far. On the other, I’ve got Yelich and Hicks in my minor leagues. So I probably should go pitching, right? How would you rank what’s left?

        Mucho mucho gracias!

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Rags: Hmmm, shoot from the hip style, I’d rank them like; Haren, Cahill, EJax, Niese, Bailey, Peavy, Burnett, Beckett, Fiers.

          If you mixed up my last four, I couldn’t argue.

          And yeah, I’d prolly go pitching here.

          I do like Werth in OBP leagues though.

          De nada!

  7. Cartman 4evs says:
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    I’m in a weird 10 team, h2h, 9×9 league with 3 util spots, offensive categories are: AVG, R, SB, HR, K, OPS, RBI, 3B, E.

    I somehow ended up with more 2B and SS than planned because of the value. Do I have too much redundancy at the middle infield? What should I look to trade for or pick up if necessary? Do you see anywhere that might be trouble?

    Thank you.

    C Perez
    1B Goldschmidt
    2B Philips
    SS A Escobar
    3B Longoria
    RF Victorino
    CF McCutchen
    LF Choo
    OF Jones
    OF Reddick
    Util Rizzo
    Util Rutledge
    Util Espinosa
    Bench Bonifacio

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Cartman 4evs: Yeah, I might try to trade some of the extra MI’s for some true U guys.

      Put some feelers out there and see which guy has the most value on return.

      How’s your pitching?

      • Cartman 4evs says:
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        @jaywrong: Thanks!

        Start 9, no innings limit; ERA, WHIP, K’s, CG, W’s, QS, SV, Holds, L’s

        Is the strategy put RP’s in as much as possible and put SP’s in for their starts only? Not sure of the strategy for a league with so many categories.

        Bumgarner
        Gio
        Moore
        Gallardo
        Bailey
        Estrada
        Ryu
        Wilhelmson
        Cishek
        Perkins
        Robertson

        • Cartman 4evs says:
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          @Cartman 4evs:
          Picked up Detwiler for Ryu.

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
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            @Cartman 4evs: I actually am higher on Ryu than most.

            He’ll be the next Greydar post this Thursday, and Nick and I talk a bit about him in tomorrow’s podcast. Be sure to tune in!

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Cartman 4evs: From what you said it sounds like you have a daily transactions thing going on here?

          If so, I like the idea of putting in high quality holds guys in there when you can.

  8. Jay

    jaywrong says:
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    I’m actually okay with Werth there, I think if he’s healthy, a 15/10 is automatic. I think you can get away with drafting closers later out of the Huston Street’s and Rafael Betancourts.

    Since its dynasty, maybe aim for Addison Reed. Keep an eye on guys who could close, like Vinnie Pestano, and draft on the back-end.

    Personally, I just hate drafting closers high.

    Actually, now that I think of it, maybe its a good time to pull down a starter if you have your infield and most of your OF set. Bailey-ish would work. Any other names you are thinking of?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @jaywrong: (Duplicate)

  9. Mike says:
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    Keeper question…standard Yahoo! league:

    Aaron Hill for $6 or Lawrie for $10?

    Thanks!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Mike: I’d want Lawrie.

  10. Tchaikovsky08 says:
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    Just drafted in my highly competitive 14 team keeper league (H2H 5×5). Thoughts on how I did? Was thinking of packaging an OF + Peavy for a power bat but not sure what makes the most sense.

    C Joe Mauer
    1B Ike Davis / Justin Morneau / Corey Hart
    2B Dustin Pedroia
    3B Will Middlebrooks
    SS Andrelton Simmons
    OF Justin Upton
    OF Austin Jackson
    OF Sin-Shoo Choo
    UTIL Desmond Jennings
    BN Lorenzo Cain

    SP Cole Hamels
    SP Mat Latos
    P Jordan Zimmermann
    P Aroldis Chapman
    P Jake Peavy
    RP Kenley Jansen
    RP Jason Grili
    BN Ryan Madson
    BN Andrew Cashner

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Tchaikovsky08: Looks good, though you could try to get younger in a few places.

      Maybe see what Cain/Peavy might net you in terms of power. Maybe a Craig or something?

      • Tchaikovsky08 says:
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        @jaywrong:

        Not a bad idea. The guy with Craig has Pujols and Billy Butler, although preseason he was adamantly against trading him. I should kick the tires now that it’s post-draft. I appreciate the advice, and I enjoyed your column and look forward to future installments.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Tchaikovsky08: Thanks! And if you really are Tchaikovsky, I dig the tunes bro.

          The beard is impressive as well.

  11. Just finishing up my 19 Team Points League Dynasty Draft…..I decided many would be drafting to win now, so I decided to take high upside youth early, then stockpile my farm with impact potential arms….Curious to hear you thoughts on my draft/team and how you might grade it.

    C – Devin Mesoraco
    1b – Paul Goldschmidt
    2b – Dustin Ackley
    SS –
    3b – Mike Moustakas
    LF – Desmond Jennings
    CF – Adam Jones
    RF – Mitch Moreland

    B – Jeff Francoeur, Gordon Beckham, Juan Francisco

    Minors – Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Johnathan Singleton, Bubba Starling, David Dahl, Johnathan Schoop, Richard Shaffer, Blake Swihart

    SP – Jarrod Parker
    SP – Joulys Chacin
    SP – Zack Britton
    SP – Danny Duffy
    SP – Neftali Feliz
    RP – Brian Matusz
    RP – Wade LeBlanc
    RP – Joe Kelly
    RP – Brad Brach
    RP – Jeurys Familia

    Minors – Dylan Bundy, Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman, Taylor Guerrieri, Jose Berrios.

    For my SP as you can see I just filled my slots (and RP slots) with primarily post-hype sleeper guys who may prove more useful long term than their current value suggests….I figure if I can hit on one or two of them, and a decent amount of the dynasty arms, then in 2-3 years I’ll have a top level pitching staff.

    • @ChipsWinston:

      Made an error…..Giancarlo Stanton is my RF…..Mitch Moreland is my Utility bat.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @ChipsWinston: Well, things I like: Parker, Bundy, Walker, Gausman, Singleton, Schoop. Taking a chance on a lot of post-hype guys… you’re right, could pay off in a big way.

      Things I don’t like: The pitching is a bit weak, but, as I said, I respect the strat. No doubt. I’m not terribly high on Duffy, Feliz, Matusz (I used to be a big reliever, first post I ever wrote on Razzball was on Matusz) and Chacin. But your reinforcements will come soon, then watch out.

      Overall, I think you’ll compete this year, but may not have enough. However, your time table appears accurate barring injury.

  12. Mitch says:
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    Can you do another yahoo / espn ranking of guys who are way to high and way to low. Yahoo just dumped out another crazy rankings. Harper ahead of Justin upton/hamilton and all sorts of crazy rankings. Draft is next week – could use some help!!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Mitch: I think Grey takes care of that. Otherwise, I would take Harper over both Upton and Hambone, though I’m one of the few who thinks that way.

      If you have any specific questions, I’d be happy to help with your draft.

      • Mitch says:
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        @jaywrong: 6×6 h2h category league. QS and Total Bases are the extra category, blown saves is -1. Only negative category.

        I have the sixth pick and probably getting McCutchen and then hopefully Justin Upton with the 19th pick in the 2nd round.

        I am aiming for 3 20/20 hitters and a power hitter with 30+ hr’s before i even look at pitching. Any input is welcome – i am planning on waiting late on closers.

        How should i attack this draft?

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Mitch: Yeah, I like what you have in mind here.

          I am in a total bases league, and there are some interesting sleepers out there if you look deeper. For example, based on Steamer, David Wright is projected to have 265 TB. You know who is projected to have 268? Nick Markakis.

          Do some research on high doubles guys that might fall under the radar. Daniel Murphy comes to mind. Even David DeJesus might surprise you.

          On Upton, I don’t like the ballpark he’s moving to, and I’d say 20/15 is the median. I’ve been telling everyone who would listen, Harper is primed to go 35/20 this year. (When I’m drinking, I say 45/25, which, I know, is a 2 drink minimum statement) But I believe. People can scold me on it, but I’m taking him high. Maybe late 2nd, early 3rd.

          • Mitch says:
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            Does it change your mind that this is the starters. C, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, of, of, of, dh. 7 SP’s and 2 RP slots.

            In head to head i really like to look for guys who are going to produce
            week to week and really avoid guys who go through long slumps.

            Would you take cargo over mccutchen? I am very high on mccutchen but it does kind of scare me that he has only one proven year even though his talent is there. Guess same could be said about cargo. Do you think opening OF, OF, 1B/3B, OF is fine in a 3 OF setup if i can grab 3 20/20 + guys?
            @jaywrong:

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Mitch: Not necessarily. I mean, with the obvious stuff, guys up the middle go up in cost. Starters go up.

              That’s a good mindset on guys who fluctuate a lot, but usually I don’t worry about things I can’t control directly. Of course, there are some well known streaky guys, but often, its something that’s left to chance rather than skill. It’s funny I say this, because Cargo seems like one of those streaky guys.

              And I’m with you, I’d stick with McCutch.

              And yes, I think that alignment could work just fine. When you look at the outfield this year, there are enough speed/power guys where you can do that, heck, maybe even corner most of that market.

              I usually just punt MI to the back-end, try and come up with guys who can help fill in my cat-gaps. Like Everth if I need a shot of speed. Or a Murphy if I need help with BA, etc.

  13. Hotrod says:
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    Your thoughts on this team (12 team H2H)? Thanks

    C Avila
    1 Howard
    2 Gyorko
    SS Tulo
    3 Machado
    2/SS Rutledge
    1/3 Alvarez
    OF Giancarlo
    OF Harper
    OF Holiday
    OF Cespedes
    OF Eaton
    Util Quentin

    SP’s
    CC
    Chapman
    Gallardo
    Kuroda
    Hellickson
    Ryu
    Masterson
    Wandy
    Shelby

    Closers
    Jim Johnson
    Street
    Perkins
    Veras

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Hotrod: I want to dry-hump your outfield. Big fan of Gyorko. I like your offense overall, to be honest.

      The starting rotation gives me slight pause. I don’t entirely trust Gallardo, Hellboy, and Masterson, but it should hold you over until you can pinpoint some guys in FA.

      • Hotrod says:
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        @jaywrong: Ah, yes, the dry-hump. Went into the draft with every intention of getting Prince & longo at #11 and #14…ended up with Tulo and Giancarlo…then I….just….couldnt…stop taking outfielders!!!!!

        Yeah, the rotation is a question mark, especially with news Aroldis will probably be closing…I think Shelby Miller is going to have a Lance-Lynn-esque year, and be my #3 or 4.

        Thanks for your thoughts.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Hotrod: No problemo.

  14. Seano says:
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    “The most important aspect in advanced leagues is value.”

    Bingo!

    In my keeper AL only league that has been around 20 years with mostly the same group there are few secrets and seldom sleepers that sneak through. It is all about the value, I start every auction with a plan but I also believe every player is worth owning if I can get him at the right price.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Seano: I hear ya. Its one of the first lessons I learned when I first start playing this format 12 years ago. Same story as you, same group all these years later. Its fun, but there are never any secrets.

      The only thing better than good value is a good taco.

      And yes, like you say, a player is worth as much as someone pays for him. Simple as that.

  15. Hawk says:
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    Need some draft advice.

    10 team, 5×5 keeper. 2 each of C, 1st, 2nd 3rd, SS, 4 OF, DH, 10 Pitchers.
    We keep 12. Once you draft someone you can keep them forever so young players are generally overvalued by leaguemates.

    We kept:
    C Jesus Montero
    C Victor Martinez
    1b Joey Votto
    1b Anthony Rizzo
    2b Ben Zobrist
    JSS ose Reyes
    OF Giancarlo Stanton
    OF Shin Soo Choo
    DH Edwin Encarnacion
    SP CC Sabathia
    SP Yovanni Gallardo
    RP Jason Motte

    Best players after protects are:
    Aramis Ramirez
    Carlos Beltran
    Martin Prado
    Roy Halladay
    Jon Lester
    Jeff Samardzjia
    Jake Peavy
    Jon Niese
    CJ Wilson

    We have the first pick overall. Who would you take?

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Hawk: Prado is who I recommend.

      How do you like that keepin’ 12 business? Any complaints? People want to keep more or less or is 12 just right?

      • Hawk says:
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        @Wallpaper Paterson:

        Really Prado? Over a pitcher considering we only have 2 good ones with 5-6 more to draft? That’s surprising. Care to elaborate more?

        Keeping 12 seems like a lot but teams really change in standings from year to year. It makes drafting more intricate as younger guys gain value due to longer potential to help your team.

        Everyone built and developed a core which kind of identifies their team. That makes it interesting to me.

        • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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          @Hawk: Prado should hit around .300 and be in the low teens in homers and steals. He will help you in all categories and may be eligible at multiple positions.

          If you want a pitcher, go with Niese.

          I want a league with more keepers. I often fail to understand the logic in having a keeper league where people only can keep 3-5 players. Why bother if you are the commish? All that thankless work and you can only keep 20% of your roster at most?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Hawk: I’d go Samardzija, and its not really close. I’m a big believer.

  16. Joe Carter says:
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    In a 7×7 which includes K/bb & K/9, how does this affect the value of starters compared to relievers? My initial thought is that it increases the value of relievers bc good ones can have amazing ratios which now help you in 4 total ratio cats out of 7 instead of 2 out of 5?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Joe Carter: I think someone mentioned something similar to this in one of my other post’s comment section and how someone like Craig Kimbrel really tilts the scales with those cat’s. Its fun to think about.

      I have to be honest, yeah, I would almost consider going 4/5 here (SP/RP), and try to stream in some guys if you are lacking in W’s and K’s. But having two cat’s covered by 5 high impact bullpen guys, I mean, they don’t even have to be closers. You could invest in guys like Pestano, Robertson, etc.

      Also, with only have 4 spots to fill, you can try to do some kind of Kershaw/Darvish/Dickey/Parker combo. I only mention it because I was able to land all four in the #razzballmock. Any starters past 4 are going to subtract from those rate cat’s.

      I’m going to chew on that a bit longer, but that’s my gut shot reaction right now.

      • Joe Carter says:
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        @jaywrong: very good points, it is something interesting to think about. I’m usually a draft batters the first 5 rounds type guy so hard for me to envision taking someone as high as Kershaw but that sounds like a pretty sound strategy that should work.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Joe Carter: Yeah, but don’t go outside your comfort zone too. If you have a plan, and I know Grey agree’s, stick with it.

          A lot of mistakes can happen if you just wing it or change something last minute. Just be aware of your surroundings, and remember to try and snipe some good bullpen pieces.

          Even someone like Kelvin Herrera, or Christian Garcia, pretty unknown guys, could give you an edge.

          • Joe Carter says:
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            @jaywrong: you are on a roll sir. one thing i normally do is stream out my droppable players for good RPs who are playing the next day who didnt pitch the day b4…which takes a lot of work but was a good strat, but now the league has a cap of 7 moves/week so might have to invest a little more long term to top RPs, my league hasnt caught on to this yet so i should be able to nab the top relievers. thanks for the advice

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Joe Carter: Sounds good and happy to help!

              You ever wonder if they made that rule because of you? If so, well played.

            • Joe Carter says:
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              @Joe Carter: and side note, if you change around Baseball Monster with these 7 categories it makes Kimbrel the #1 pitching asset from last year and Chapman #3 and McGee the first non-closer reliever ranked at #30 for pitchers

              • Joe Carter says:
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                @Joe Carter: and i am the commishioner so i have accidentally screwed myself haha

                • Jay

                  jaywrong says:
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                  @Joe Carter: Hah! That’s never good.

                  And that’s pretty interesting on the cat’s.

  17. Robby D says:
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    Does your projection for Matt Garza include the assumption that he may miss a month of the season? 225K’s seems like a lot if he doesn’t play until May.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Robby D: You’ll have to ask Grey on the projection, but he is out until May, that seems for certain. I think 170 is possible, if there are no setbacks.

  18. Crotch Potatoe says:
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    Love coming here for quality discussion and helpful advice. Question for @jaywrong and @grey [hell for the masses too...] Waiver pickups are eligible as 5 year keepers in our league. Who among these currently available injured pitchers do you most like as a stash and start 5-year guy?

    Dan Hudson
    Cory Luebke
    Colby Lewis

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Crotch Potatoe: Luebke, and its not close. I have him stashed in several leagues as well.

      • Crotch Potatoe says:
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        @jaywrong: @jaywrong: Thanks, I have an irrational man love for him as a guy I can stash –good to know I have company.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Crotch Potatoe: Well, they say misery loves company… but in this case, I think we’re safe.

          Its sorta a homer pick being a so-cal kid, but out of the three, I’m more comfortable with the future projection coupled with the run environment.

  19. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    I took a chance on Davis with pick 121? I thought it was worth the gamble at that spot, i also heavily invested in back up OF’s. My OF’s are Jones, Choo, Davis, Fowler, Bonifacio, Marte and Cain. matt Carpenter could also plug in if needed. I am planning on playing bone face at 2nd base if/when he becomes eligible and if not i will play carpenter. Infante is my current…damn that leaves a bad taste in my mouth…I N F A N T E

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: I FANT believe it!

      It was worth a try.

      Yeah, 121 seems iffy, but I don’t think it will cause critical damage. Overall, I think your OF looks good.

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @jaywrong: I figure 5 will emerge and do the work for me. also starting the draft with goldy, miggy and jones cant hurt and then adding I davis as my CI gives me room to take chances

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @jaywrong: didn’t think you would

  20. No legs assassins says:
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    Head to head points league with a limit of nine starting pitchers per roster 12 team league. Just wondering if I am weak anywhere and need to look to upgrade.

    C. Ryan Doumit
    1b. Billy butler
    2b. Aaron hill
    3b. Swingy Cabrera
    Ss. Jimmy Rollins
    Lf. Carl Crawford
    Cf. Adam jones
    Rf. Joey Bautista
    U. Pablo Sandoval
    U. Eric hosmer
    B. Chris Davis
    B. Alejando De Arza
    B. Leonys Martin

    Sp. strasburg
    Sp. Marrow
    SP. Anibal Sanchez
    Sp. Minor
    Sp. J. Parker
    Sp. Marco Estrada
    Sp. Julio Terehan
    Sp. Dillion Gee
    Sp. Tillman
    Rp/sp. wade Davis
    Rp/sp. Andy Cashner
    Rp. Jim Johnson

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @No legs assassins: Looks fairly stable. Nothing really jumps out.

      Terehan/Morrow/Minor might be risky for different reasons, but there’s enough there to hedge.

      Sometimes, too many starters can bring diminishing returns, so get a feel for how your competition is lining up. Maybe mix in some relievers if you notice your back-end starters are hurting you more than helping.

      Otherwise, looks fine.

  21. centerfieldballhawk says:
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    And one more for good measure… drafted this team in a standard commenter league last night. Hit all of my targets, with the exception of saves. Looks like I’ll be a saves vulture from the start. Any other thoughts would be appreciated… always good to get some constructive criticism

    Carlos Santana, Cle C, 1B, DH

    Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B

    Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B

    MikeMoustakas, KC 3B

    Josh Rutledge, Col SS

    Chase Utley, Phi 2B

    Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DH

    Ryan Braun, Mil OF

    Nelson Cruz, TexOF

    Josh Reddick, OakOF

    Ben Revere, Phi OF

    Jayson Werth, Wsh OF

    Paul Konerko, CWS1B, DH

    PITCHERS

    PLAYER, TEAM POS

    Zack Greinke, LAD SP DTD

    Max Scherzer, Det SP

    Jon Lester, Bos SP

    Homer Bailey, Cin SP

    Tim Hudson, Atl SP

    Bruce Rondon, Det RP

    Carlos Marmol, ChC RP

    Kyuji Fujikawa, ChCRP

    A.J. Griffin, Oak SP

    MattGarza, ChC SP DTD

    Brandon Beachy, Atl SP DTD

    Ivan Nova, NYY SP

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @centerfieldballhawk: I’m not a believer in Cruz and Ledger, but I love Nova as a sleeper. I might do a post on him at some point. Good job hedging in Marmol. Overall, its a good setup, personnel wise. Keep an eye on you SB totals though, you might need to supplement somewhere.

      • centerfieldballhawk says:
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        @jaywrong:I’m trying to figure out who your phone auto corrected to read – Ledger. Who would be the first guy that you’d drop for that available SAGNOF?

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @centerfieldballhawk: Oh, hah! Ledger has had it tough, so I didn’t mean to pile on there.

          I meant Lester.

          But I think Beachy would be the safest bet to drop. Control is the last thing to come back after Tommy John, so I don’t think he’ll have value until next year. I always liked the tools, but I never thought of him as a guy that can put it all together for a consistent period. The flashes are tantalizing though.

          • centerfieldballhawk says:
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            @jaywrong: I think Beachy is the smart play, as well. Thanks for the observations!

  22. Jeff P says:
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    Check out this team I drafted yesterday in Yahoo H2H 12 team league. Rounds 12-19 especially. It’s almost as if I read Razzball daily.
    1. (3) Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
    2. (22) Justin Upton (Atl – OF)
    3. (27) Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
    4. (46) Billy Butler (KC – 1B)
    5. (51) Yu Darvish (Tex – SP)
    6. (70) Anthony Rizzo (ChC – 1B)
    7. (75) Jason Motte (StL – RP)
    8. (94) Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP)
    9. (99) Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
    10. (118) Mike Napoli (Bos – C,1B)
    11. (123) Dan Haren (Was – SP)
    12. (142) Todd Frazier (Cin – 1B,3B,OF)
    13. (147) Josh Rutledge (Col – 2B,SS)
    14. (166) Kyle Seager (Sea – 2B,3B)
    15. (171) Glen Perkins (Min – RP)
    16. (190) Adam Eaton (Ari – OF)
    17. (195) Kenley Jansen (LAD – RP)
    18. (214) Alex Cobb (TB – SP)
    19. (219) Andrelton Simmons (Atl – SS)
    20. (238) Jaime Garcia (StL – SP)
    21. (243) Kendrys Morales (Sea – 1B)
    22. (262) Jedd Gyorko (SD – 3B)
    23. (267) Ross Detwiler (Was – SP,RP)

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Jeff P: Totally, I see some nice pieces on the back-end there.

  23. The Dreaded Panda says:
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    10 Team H2H point league
    Where can I make improvements?

    C Montero, Jesus
    1B Goldschmidt, Paul
    2B Cano, Robinson
    3B Sandoval, Pablo
    SS Castro, Starlin
    MI Altuve, Jose
    CI Davis, Ike
    OF McCutchen, Andrew
    OF Upton, Justin
    OF Holliday, Matt
    OF Rios, Alex
    OF Pence, Hunter
    U Prado, Martin

    SP Latos, Mat
    SP Moore, Matt
    SP Bailey, Homer
    SP Burnett, A.J.
    SP Parker, Jarrod
    SP Harvey, Matt

    RP Holland, Greg
    RP Street, Huston

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Dreaded Panda: Looks pretty set. I might upgrade the U, but Prado is a good hedge for Panda. Iif this team stays the same, you’ll get no complaints from me.

    • BucLover says:
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      @<a href="I@The Dreaded Panda: #comment-1918164″>The Dreaded Panda:
      I would agree with jay…You’re team looks fine and as long as you do your work during the season (afterall, that is really where your season is won or lost..I’d say the draft is less than 20% of the battle) you’ll be fine. Good luck!

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