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What does Beastie Boys and Peter Cetera have in common?! This post…

Back in the day

There was this post around the way

It pointed to SP sleepers as good late round plays

You asked, “Are they worth an add?” I said, “You May”

THEY’LL MAKE YOUR PANTS TIGHT AND THAT’S OKAY

If you clicked on the link in the first…stanza?… I listed a slew of pitchers as sleepers by their pitch repertoires. Some interesting sleepers starting with the fastball was Burch Smith, Erasmo Ramirez and Hector Santiago.  That post and my prior post on pitch repertoires took into account mainly pitches’ Swinging Strike% and GB/FB ratios. There are many others I’d point out on that list – Devastating Danny Salazar as my favorite, but I’ll attend to ESPN’s % ownership in conjunction with this ‘Stuff’ for waiver wire options. Here are guys with < 10% ownership that make my pants tight:

  1. Matt Harvey (2.3%)Matt Harvey? Yes, Matt Harvey. Why?

I am an owner that will fight for your honor

I’ll be the owner you’re dreaming of

I’ll roster you foreverrr

Knowing togetherrr

That we owned you for the glory of love

This is stupid. It’s not? Keep it going? Okay…

I will always roster Matt Harveyyy

Even over Bradley, Archieee…

You’re more deceptive than Moriartyyy

Alright, Alright. No more stanzas.

Realistically though – if you’re in a redraft league and don’t have a DL limit, go for him in the last round, stick him on your DL and enjoy 20-25 glorious innings… for the glory of love… or the glorious hole in the Mets rotation. GLORIOUS hole… not glory.

  1. As of 3/25, Corey Kluber’s ownership was at 9.8%…baffling. He should have a K-rate over 20% and BB-rate under 6.5% ensuring a 3.00+ K/BB ratio – in conjunction with a rising GB/FB rate, the guy is a great option even though he’s not utterly dominating. He also has 3 plus pitches that induce elite swinging strike rates.  This induction evokes what I’m terming KLUBERZEAL – fake German for I would not hesitate to roster Corey Kluber.
  1. Tim Hudson (8.1%) is moving to an even better ballpark and induces a boatload of grounders still. As long as you’re not in a K/9 league, if you drafted a few high-K closers or relievers, there’s no reason not to grab him for wins/QS and value in the ERA/WHIP departments. He’s the Kyle Lohse of AT&T park with a better strikeout rate, ground ball rate and oh yeah – AT&T is a better park than Miller. C’mon.
  1. Archie Bradley (3.8%) – Bradley’s on this list because you want him on this list. He’ll be stud, fo’ sho’. But I can see command issues initially (K% dropped from unsustainable 37.4% in A+ to 23.5% in AA; his BB% also jumped 3%). Will he have the opportunity this year sooner than later? Sure, that’s why he has value. But he won’t induce enough grounders early on in conjunction with the command ratio, which I can see at sub 2.00. I would look to trade for him, or, if you do have him, play him up and trade him for some win-now pieces.

I’m going to pile guys together here from a swinging strike% standpoint i.e. how many swinging strikes they induce. For reference, here are league SwStr rates from last year:

Slider (SL) = 15.2%

Change (CH) = 14.9% (Kluber is #11 by the way)

Curve (CB) = 11.1%

Four-seamer (FS) = 6.9% (Kluber is #1 by the way!)

  1. Hector Santiago (2.4%) – 12th best FB SwStr% last year. IMO, he can have a relatively big jump in K% next year and moves to a much better park for pitchers. I can see a repeat 3.5-3.7 ERA no matter what the expected ERA’s say, and something closer to 150 K’s. Some luck/possible BABIP drop and better park factors suppressing his HR/FB ratio; I see major value here. I don’t think he’ll kill you in a standard 5×5 wins league like he did last year being on a better team.
  1. Tyson Ross (1.6%) – 2nd best SL; 55th best CH SwStr%. Sick SwStr rates on the slider and become even more devastating when he started and got to feature the stuff. The big concern is the pressure that specific pitch puts on the arm and the IP jump. We can’t expect much more than 125-145 innings. Use him in San Diego early, if he devastates with the slider, enjoy or trade him for help elsewhere.
  1. Jose Quintana (1.4%) – Couldn’t really highlight any of his pitches, but he’ll only be 25 next year and is relatively solid. If he pairs the 2012 GB/FB ratio with 2013 K/BB ratio, he can go sub 3.55, 1.25 again. That’s an asset with 10+ wins and 155+ K’s.
  1. Erasmo Ramirez (0.4%) – 11th best FB; 51st best CH SwStr%. A sweet spring, some injuries and homerun-master-flex Blake Beavan ensures Erasmo a rotation spot, and I like him so much more than his surface stats presented last year. Don’t forget his 2012 (3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a 4.00 K/BB ratio) even if it was supported by some lucky BABIP. Only issue I see on the surface is perpetually letting guys score, ugly LOB%’s, which is a bit concerning.
  1. Edwin Jackson (1.3%) – It’s worth pointing out that at times, he can be relatively dominant: 10th best CB; 17th best SL; 40th best CH SwStr%, but overall he’s still pretty hittable.
  1. Nate Eovaldi (0.7%) – 68th best SL SwStr%; FB not impressive from SwStr% but it was #2 in velocity; #2 GB/FB ratio on Curveball
  1. Taylor Jordan (0.3%) 28th best CH; 65th best SL SwStr% – If you pick this guy up, I want you to come back to this post and give me virtual high five every time he throws a gem.  I guess you can come back and virtual drop-kick me otherwise.
  1. Yusmeiro Petit (0.1%) – 4th Best CB SwStr%. I’m not a huge fan of Ryan Vogelsong so until Edwin Escobar/Kyle Crick/Clayton Blackburn is ready, I’m keeping my eye on Petit’s nasty curveball and ability to maintain a 3.00 K/BB ratio in AT&T park. I’m down with a sub 3.86ERA-1.3WHIP and 125 K’s if he winds up with 150 IP.
  1. Robbie Erlin (1.3%) – #1 groundball to flyball ratio on CB. Another possible 3.00+ K/BB guy in a great stadium, and it sounds like he has the leg up on the rotation spot to replace Josh Johnson’s perpetual inability to stay on the field. In another year or two I can see a 3.65-1.2 guy here with his command. If he could just miss bats like he did in AA that could happen this year.
  1. Jenrry Mejia (0.1%) – 5th best SL SwStr%. I’m a Mets fan, but I’ll stay rational for this one. It seems like forever ago, this guy was a top prospect. He was pretty solid whenever he wasn’t in the majors really and last year he finally slider’ed himself into the discussion again. The cutter, which he uses most is not impressive from a SwStr% perspective, but it still had the 2nd best GB/FB ratio for cutters in the bigs last year which validated the elite GB/FB ratio (16th best if you consier 27.1 IP sufficient). He’s shown the skill in the past and even half the K/BB ratio, he’ll provide value with a K% back up to his minor league levels. Please Terry/Sandy, commit to him in the rotation.

     (SwStr%’s & GB/FB ratios above from Baseball Pro’s Pitch F/X Leaderboard)

I’m also drafting all 4 of these guys in dynasty/keeper leagues and think they’ll all provide impact this year: Carlos Martinez (pounce if he enters the rotation), Kevin Gausman (samsie on him if a spot opens), Noah Syndergaard (if the Mets were to somehow compete, he’ll be up sooner than later) & Jake Odorizzi (I actually like Alex Colome quite a bit if he wasn’t suspended for PED’s, but Izzi’s got the #5 role to himself until Hellickson returns).

This is why you wait on pitchers if you don’t wind up with the elite options at good draft position.

 

Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter or purchase your thermal packaging from him.

  1. Yaomiiiing says:
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    When is Harvey coming back?

    • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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      @Yaomiiiing: Next year. I just don’t see the Mets allowing him to come back early unless, possibly, if they are competing for a playoff spot (which itself is pretty unlikely). But even then…I just don’t see it. And even if it does…how good are those 20-25 innings going to be just back from TJ? ONLY place this guy is draftable is in leagues with unlimited DL slots (never even heard of one, myself) as mentioned, or keeper leagues.

      • Dano

        Dano says:
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        @RandomItalicizedVoice: i totally agree dude (assuming you’re a dude) – again, this was in the post for my pure zeal of him.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Dano: he also could’ve meant a lot of DL slots, like at least 4.

  2. Phoenix Rising says:
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    Dano, good stuff man. I’m diggin’ the pitch breakdown. Here’s my draft as far as what my pitching looks like. Suggestions? Thoughts? Potential moves?

    11 team, roto. IP, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S….2 RP 7SP spots.

    SP – Anibal, Liriano, Masterson, Erasmo, Hector Santiago, Eovaldi, Hutchison
    RP – Scheppers, Romo
    Bench – Iwakuma, Porcello, Balfour

    Still angry I missed out on Salazar and Ventura…Thanks Dano!

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @Phoenix Rising: nice…looks like you slept on pitchers but got some goodies.

  3. JDW says:
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    I love the B-Boys! Record the wrong lyrics of your own song and say – ahh screw it, it’s fine.

    “Well everybody’s rapping like it’s a commercial
    Acting like life is a big commercial…”

    Or melding Black Sabbath AND Zeppelin!?? Are you freakin’ kidding me! Brilliant!

    Now bounce to some Rhymin’ and Stealin’ while you appreciate the above listed worthy draft day arms!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAQCHZpM_3I

  4. Gonzo_The_Great says:
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    You make some interesting points regarding Hudson. I’ve been grabbing Phil Hughes as my token “decent-ish pitcher moving to a much better park” pick in the last round of the draft. Hold Hughes? Or swap for Hudson?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @Gonzo_The_Great: i’d swap for hudson unless K%,K/9 and K were all categories in your league and even then.

  5. Dano

    Dano says:
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    Wow – just noticed in one league i actually have Santiago, Ross, Erasmo, Jordan & Mejia! Salazar & Wood are my best two SP so naturally my offense in that league is diesel.

  6. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Hey Dano, nice post as usual. I used to just look at K/9, but know I’m learning to look at that SwStr% too.

    Since you’re a Mets guy, I’m confused…is Mejia in or out? I thought it was down to him and Dice-K this weekend. If it is still up in the air, who do you think gets the gig? I’ve got Mejia tucked away in my home league.

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @Mike: thanks Mike. i do think it’s still up in the air unfort. even though it should be Mejia however there’s the concern in the form of a bunion. I think dicek wins it but relatively quickly loses it to Mejia who really had his stuff back last season x10

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        thx man

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Mike: it’s mejia right now, but wasn’t 2 days ago.

  7. MB says:
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    Nice article. Just got Jordan.

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @MB: jackpot. enjoy – more and more i think he could 3.5/1.25/150 it

  8. Alex says:
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    Shoot, so Marco Estrada doesnt have the skills to be on this list? or is he owned in too many leagues?

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @Alex: yeah i think his %ownership was > 10%. if not he was a total miss b/c i’d absolutely include him. he’s a lucky HR/FB away from 3.5/1.15/175+

  9. Nico

    Nico says:
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    As a Mets fan myself, I want to scoop up Mejia SO BADLY, but I feel like I know how this story goes. I hate owning Mets on my teams for that reason. I’m a happiness hedger with regards to that, so if my team sucks, my fantasy team doesn’t (at least not for that reason). Anyway, I can read all the articles I want, but nothing gives a definitive answer on what the Mets are doing with Mejia. Do you think he beats out Dice-K since management asked for a few more days to make the 5th starter decision? And if so, are you rostering him immediately? Realistic projections for a full season?

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @Nico: I’m def rostering him in nfbc like formats (15 teams x 9p and 6bench)…def not in yahoo and on the bubble in espns.

      There’s times I realize I have 1-2 starters 15-20 rounds in and I go guys like Mejia, taylor Jordan, erasmo ramirez, robbie ross…this year this really worked out (assuming they somehwat pan out).

      • Nico

        Nico says:
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        @dano: Makes sense. I know my league is too shallow, but the guys I play with do tend to pick up young pitchers at will and stash them. I figured I’d ask your opinion in case the ceiling was higher than my depressed-met-fan-self thought…

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Nico: it appears dice clay (SUCKS) got minor’d

  10. Jason says:
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    I’ve had license to Ill on spotify all day…

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @Jason: glory of love for harvey initially started the post but was too corny so had to input the beasties to preface it all

      • Jason says:
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        @Dano: good choice!

  11. win1forthe says:
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    Great article. I really like finding those under-the-radar guys that pay off in a big way and you hit the nail on the head.

    Question about Harvey…I’m in a dynasty/keeper league (carry 5 guys over each year) and my team stinks (went all in last year and this year’s expense). Is Harvey worth stashing on the roster and seeing how it plays out? 27 guys on a roster, 22 start/5 bench-dl slots. Thanks.

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @win1forthe: in a dynasty league absolutely. his poise/determination is hard to quantify but his stuff was so good and he didnt have health concerns from a delivery standpoint…even a repertoire standpoint and how is delivery was made a lot of baseball GM’s say they preferred him over more highlighted prospects and guys like sale/strasburg/bumgarner b/c of their deliveries and repertoires.

      hes definitely worsh the stash (especially if you’re allowed to stash him on the dl)!

  12. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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    Dano: I had posted earlier in the week on Cuddyer as 1st base Eli. –

    And whoa unto me.

    It turns out he wasn’t Eli – only 15 games at first – I complained about it at draft last night too (blushing now)

    I will say to my defense, that BB Reference had it wrong too – @ 29 apps- , when I checked 2 weeks back. (now repaired – can one sue them for FBB draft damage???) And that earlier in the season so did ESPN (I think). He is not on my month old copied rank sheet as a first baseman either from ESPN. Clearly, ESPN conspired to prey on my weaknesses is what happened. I’m now stuck with Cuddyer. O’ well, maybe he can hit 50 PCT. PTS over his life time average again this year

    On a sidebar: You’ll be happy too hear, my outfit (I described to you in my last comment) on draft night WOWed them all. I believe, Jay was stunned by it. That normally gregarious convivial man was all but speechless for the night.

    I must admit about Jay. He was also distracted by a bottle of Wild Turkey (its cap kept opening all night) and by his adopted RazzBall Gulag family of muskoxen – he had brought them along to the draft. They are cute – but, a bit large for a FBB draft room – if you know what I mean. His pet Highland steer is like oil and water with the new “herd?” and that only added to the distraction level too . In retrospect, and I believe even Jay would agree, it was a poor choice to not find a cattle herder sitter for them for the night. ****His apartment must be a mess in Washington DC as none of the beasts were house trained.

    Regardless, I did look super.

    Your late pitching show is really helpful. I only drafted 2 SPs and some of these were off my radar. In ESPN, I like to think, I have a 90 SP staff swimming in the puddle waiting for me to call on to hand them the ball.

    Hutchison of TOR. Doubront BOS Anderson COL are all worthy of consideration for spot starts on good match up days IMO – I would think, they were not drafted in most leagues

    Thanks.

      • Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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        @Jay: Jay: Cuddyer fielding stats were wrong. I screwed myself.

        Still very happy with a strange strange draft. Strong on paper in all offense Cats. Good Saves, My 2 SPs are top 10,- and the way I look at it, I have 90 more good ones in the puddle with plenty more getting ready to be tossed back in for match ups. My plan was always to take only 2 SPs.

        Some players lasted ridiculously long past their value point = Soriano, Lawrie and many others IMO.

        I managed to have everything covered in the end – only lost out on Morneau – who I always take and not having my SBs secured when you grabbed Hamels and Iwakuma finally went were tough to sit and watch.

        *****Trade offer… I send you Fields, the other half of Texas combo and Benoit, the other half of SD, – closing pairs- to backup your closers for an injured Hamels – who may or may not be back in June???

        Hope, your hangover is better. I no longer drink because of its calories. I had gained weight rapidly when I retired from the field. I had to totally revamp my diet. Booze was a tough cut. But, it was what did the trick. Old women are now pinching me at the checkout counter, again. They are nasty little things. They should put ankle location bracelets on half of them out there.

        Thanks for letting me join your league.

        Did Dano call you over to help out? I don’t think he understands or is comfortable with fantasy sports metrosexuality or the importance of expressing ones self through the application of cutting edge fantasy sports fashion statements.

        If, he could have only been there and seen that I had SO many compliments last night on my outfit.

        Overdressing is not a crime – It is sublime.

        • Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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          @Ghost of the Disappeared:
          Jay: I told you I screwed up on the message line all the time… Let both Qualls and Fields slip out there when searching for them. Folks were nice about it. Or think, they were too busy searching the detritus of the draft’s wreckage for survivors to notice.

          I really should retire.

  13. Bear says:
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    Hey Dano…nice article! In a 20 Team H2H SP is not deep on any team that has any offence at all…trying to get some innings I picked up Garret Richards. Would you replace with either Petit or Burch Smith? Thanks

  14. Dano

    dano says:
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    Hmm I’d put all three on same scale. I think erlin could stick so not sure burch would have sp opp. Petits a one pitch pitcher but ballpark could keep stuff in yard. Go Richards for now w/ keen eye in petit

  15. marcus allen was good al says:
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    I’m in a H2h points lge where u get 10pts for a W. Who do u like betta? Jordan or erlin?

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @marcus allen was good al: prob Jordan…but should have mentioned erlin above. Jordans got better swing and miss stuff…erlin should still have solid k/bb in sandiego which helps, but tj should get more w opps

  16. willie says:
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    I have a SP slot open who do you believe is the best all around pick up for the rest of the year?

    Tim Hudson, Travis Wood, Hector Santiago, Tyson Ross, Taijuan Walker, Drew Hutchinson, Martin Perez, Jose Quintana

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @willie: jeeze just one of those? Redraft 5×5 league I might go hudson if I’m 100% going for the winnow

  17. PedroF says:
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    Who would you rather have? Jordan or Erlin?

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @PedroF: someone asked this above. I’ll go Jordan based on the swing &miss and more win potential based on team

      • PedroF says:
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        @dano: Just noticed that now! Thanks anyway

  18. AndrewM says:
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    Jenrry got awarded the 5th spot. Between him, Jordan, Erlin, and Eovaldi who is your favorite? They are all available in my league and I am looking at adding one of them as I have an open spot because of DL player.

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @AndrewM: tj: swing and miss potential, groundball repertoire and good enough offense for win potential

      • AndrewM says:
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        @dano: tj or hector?

        • Dano

          Dano says:
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          @AndrewM: TJ.

          also keep eye on Roenis Elias going today

          • AndrewM says:
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            @Dano: He isn’t even on ESPN … haha

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