On Razzball Radio last week, where you finally got to see my perfectly circumferenced face, that looks like almost any chubby latino catcher that you can think of (to name a couple: Ramon Castro, Josmil Pinto), I got into my win-now approach. I traded high impact prospects (Gregory Polanco and Anthony Rendon) for a more immediate influence, (Robinson Cano).
I often wind up with no top prospects by year’s end, but still wind up with a sundry of “B” prospects that turn into more i.e. Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson last year for nothing! It’s about this time of the year that I start delving into C prospects in dynasty leagues for warm bodies to displace my empty prospect slots. Often, guys that come up will have initial contact problems, so I look for guys that can elevate their BABIP through both power (ISO) and speed (SPD). An extreme example is Yasiel Puig. He had contact problems last year, but he’s a monster in the power and speed departments ensuring an elevated BABIP. This year he’s put that together with a rational HR/FB ratio and a really nice contact and discipline jump. He’s elite.
It seems like I’m always seeing current and former Mets when I do this. This year is no different thanks to Andrew Brown and Eric Campbell (current Mets) as well as Nick Evans and Mike Jacobs (former) – all on this list due to their wOBA’s and ISO. While we might find more eventual, longer-term impact in AA, for this post, let’s look at the AAA minor league leaderboard (as of 5/30), including the Mexican League ranked by wOBA combined with BABIP (weighed by ISO and SPD)… just trust me:
2) Andrew Brown (Mets/PCL) – Age 29
3) Alberto Carreon (Mexican/Mexican) – Age 26
4) Jon Del Campo (Mexican/Mexican) – Age 26
7) Jose, not Jesse, Aguilar (Mexican/Mexican) – Age 24
10) Chris Dickerson (Pirates/International) – Age 32
It’s no surprise we see a sundry of PCL guys as BABIP’s tend to be elevated in that league. Take this with a handful of salt. I’ve included ages since we need to omit guys like Andrew Brown and Chris Dickerson in dynasty leagues.
It’s for this same reason that Gregory Polanco and Joc Pederson are so darn elite. They’re 22 when the average age from the leaderboard that I am using is 26.33 (I removed everyone older than 27 in the Mexican league).
I know you want to see where other high impact prospects are based on these rankings so here you go:
And the guys that would ideally have been higher up on this list:
117) Javier Baez (Cubs/PCL) – Age 21: contact issues dragging down wOBA but still a monstrous ISO
118) Stephen Piscotty (Cardinals/PCL) – Age 23: below average ISO with just above average SPD
141) Jesus Montero (Mariners/PCL) – Age 24: SPD and approach killing his BABIP but still a .200 ISO
201) Ryan Wheeler (Rockies/PCL) – Age 25
Now to the deep impact: I’m filtering out Mexican leaguers, players beyond 27 and those with flagrant issues such bad contact or being quad-A Mets even if Andrew Brown, Mike Jacobs, and Nick Evans are all in the top 15! Even Allan Dykstra and Zach Lutz make the top 30!
Let’s look at some warm bodies with potential impact beyond the names we actively monitor based on age, wOBA, BABIP and ISO:
5) Chris Taylor (Mariners/PCL) – Age 23
9) Adam Duvall (Giants/PCL) – Age 25
13) Randal Grichuk (Cardinals/PCL) – Age 22
15) Eric Campbell (Mets/PCL) – Age 27
26) Domingo Santana (Astros/PCL) – Age 21
5) Chris Taylor worked his way from the rookie league to AA with a sense of urgency and success (building contact and discipline along the way) with a 43:7 Stolen Base ratio at a premium position (SS). I’m a fan and would roster this guy in uber deep dynasty leagues despite the 80 point PCL inflation – still, that would be a .360 BABIP and a .290+ AVG. Brad Miller and Nick Franklin are no locks.
9) Adam Duvall – similar to my post on an another Rice-a-Ronian, Andrew Susac last week, it would take an impact injury (to Kung Fu Panda) to open the door for Duvall. He’s posted monster ISO’s throughout the minors, but would need lucky BABIP’s to post usable batting averages. Between this and San Fran knocking his power down, I wouldn’t jump on him.
13) If it wasn’t for Oscar Tavares, RG15 (Randal Grichuk) would have had a bit more of an opportunity based on his mashing in Triple-A along with his defensive capabilities in center while Peter Bourjos hovers around .200. Ah well. I think the PCL inflated his value anyways, but at 22, there’s still some long-term potential here. Jon Jay has to be traded for me to roster him.
15) The above names are all under 26 except Eric Campbell who I’ve watched some being on my Mets. I like his approach and positional flexibility so if a spot opens due to injury or he becomes more super at being utility then he could be an NL-only asset.
26) Domingo Santana certainly has some contact issues, but he’s only 21, walks a decent amount and already put up (2) 20+ HR totals. It took a relatively unlucky BABIP last year to drop him down to .252 and he’s back up to .295 this year. He’s a poor man’s Jon Singleton but in the outfield with a bit more BABIP potential. Let’s hope he takes a big Triple-A step forward next year like Singleton did.
76) This is for you Yankees fans. Ramon Flores is not a real burner or slugger, but Ziolo Almonte is struggling so far, Beltran and Ichiro are aging while anything could happen with leg-assets Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. This is a deep deep option for you to at least note. Ziolo Almonte wound up at #97 on this list with a better ISO, but I like Flores’ contact rate.
Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter or at disgruntledmetsfanslivinginminnesota.com. For reference, stats & leaderboard pulled from FG. He’s willing to furnish any matrix/list he puts together, so comment away with your emails and he’ll send ‘em.