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It’s a pretty funny game this fantasy baseball.  And, obviously, since I’m saying it’s funny, it’s not at all funny what I’m about to say.  No matter how heralded a prospect is, no matter how young they still are, if they have a bad season, people abandon them.  David Price is currently being drafted around the 170 mark in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  This is the pot luck section of every draft.  This is the point when people throw out game plans and are just looking for the best available pitcher.  This is the point when someone invariably walks into your room while you’re drafting and you lose it.  Her, “Honey, can we eat dinner soon?”  You, “Dinner?  Dinner?!  I’m choosing between Randy Wolf and David Price and you’re asking me about dinner?  How about I fix the economy while I’m at it?!”  And now you’ve drafted Randy Wolf and you’re getting a divorce.  Hopefully you’re not picking a divorce attorney while doing your midseason draft.  “Retainer?  Retainer?!  I’m deciding between Felipe Lopez and Scott Sizemore!”  There’s little to be excited about when looking at Price’s 2009.  Ks went down, walks went up, he wasn’t unlucky… He basically threw gas and let out a burp.  So what will Price’s 2010 look like?  Is he a possible 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper?

Price has tremendous stuff that he showed in college, the minors and briefly in the majors in 2008.  Intro Paragraph mentioned how Price’s walks went up and Ks went down in 2009.  Mr. Paragraph, if that’s his real name, wasn’t telling you the whole story.  Price’s K’s went down in the 2nd half of the season, but his walks went way down, as well.  Captain Stubing once described this as “getting your sea legs.”  Price was learning how to pitch in the major leagues last year.  2010 should be the year he continues his progress.  Walks should stay down and strikeouts should start to come around again.  The real breakout might not come until 2011.  Nevertheless, the breakout will come.  In 2010, we should expect a solid third fantasy starter-type season.  Ups and downs, culminating in a line of 12-9/3.75/1.30/155.  The reason why I’d go for him over someone like, say, Oswalt is the upside.  The reason I’d go for Oswalt over Price is the downside.  There’s more risk with Price.  You need to evaluate your pitching staff in-draft to see if you can handle risk.  The only reason why I’m not head over flippin’ heels for Price while caps-locking my superlatives is because of his division.  I’d prefer a late pitcher in the NL, but risk and division aside, I like Price and he is a solid sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

40 Responses

  1. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey do you usually stock up on more pitchers or hitters on your bench at the end of your draft?

  2. Tony says:
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    I was recently at a high school baseball coaches clinic and got to speak with a coach from Georgia Tech who coached there while price was there… He said his stuff is sick. We asked how you basically coach a guy like that and his reply was “with a player like price you basically just let him do his thing”.

  3. Ian says:
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    “The real breakout might not come until 2011.”

    That’s what I’m thinking. The walks, the lowish Ks, the high HR/9. I think this is the year he takes a step forward before breaking out in 2011. I’d rather roll with Hanson this year.

  4. Eddy says:
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    Oh AL East, why do you taunt me so?!?!?

  5. Steve says:
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    If you’re locked in your underground drafting bunker, with a three-day supply of freeze-dried food, that whole dinner thing isn’t an issue.

  6. matthole says:
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    @Tony: price went to Vandy….my Wolverines beat his ass!

  7. Jeff W. says:
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    Grey:

    We should develop some Razzball code for these sleeper posts. If the hoi poloi starts Googling (do people actually “Bing?” anything) the phrase “fantasy baseball sleeper,” I don’t want your brilliant stuff coming up.

    I’m unable to come up with anything more creative than simply using the diction that my 10-year-old-self-with-an-overbite would, and call them “thleepers.” Thus, your last phrase above would read:

    “. . . I like Prithe and he ith a tholid thleeper for 2010 fantathy batheball.”

    Though I’m sure someone here is more clever than I am. Maybe type all your posts in Wingdings?

  8. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Jeff W.: Great idea…Our saving grace is when I googled “Price” and “sleeper”, all I got was a Craigslist ad for a date with Anna Benson.

  9. The Dude says:
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    @Jeff W.: Give Grey some love here. He wants people to find his site! I know we all don’t want our league members in here employing Grey’s brilliance, but the guy can’t do this w/out some love from the occasional googler who then clicks his ads and generates some income.

  10. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Price is a good kid. The family went down to Tampa last year on vacation. We went to a Rays game and all those pricks ignored my 4 year old son except for Price. He made a point to come over and sign my kid’s baseball. He’s a favorite of mine…….and I told my kid to hold onto that ball.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Nice!

    @Steve: Ha!

    @Jeff W.: I thought the glossary already drove enough people away with sentences like, “SAGNOF great, but schmohawks pulling a Kotchman will kill you.”

    @Nate Marcum: Ha!

    @The Dude: Thanks!

    @Frank Rizzo: Cool story.

  12. Jeff W. says:
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    @The Dude:

    Of course you are right. I kid because I love. And I’ll buy Grey a daiquiri this weekend because I definitely owe him for my #2 finish in my league last year. In the future, I’ll leave the humor attempts to the professionals.

    @Grey: Well said. The Glossary here is one of my favorite parts of the site — I now exclusively refer to Adam Dunn as “Country Strong” and Dan Uggla as “Mini Donkey.” The explanation of Donkeycorn is maybe the most convoluted yet appropriate analogy in fantasy sports.

  13. Jeff W. says:
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    @ Nate:

    Zing!

  14. Nick0rz says:
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    Not sure if you heard, Cito Gaston said the Jays are “going to do some crazy things.” Whats the over/under on the amount of times he bats Gathright leadoff, has Jeremy Accardo start, and play Adam Lind in CF?

  15. Nick0rz says:
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    @Nick0rz: plays* Adam Lind in CF

  16. matthole says:
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    @Grey: @The Dude: pleading ignorance. If its true that razzball generates $ by its users clicking on the ads on the sides (serta, etc)…..then everyone who makes a post with a REAL question (trade, draft, roster move, etc) not just to shoot the shizz should click on them after Greys response. Takes a second to open and close a window.

  17. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @matthole: I’m not sure what my company would think of me clicking on K-Y Intense.

  18. Curly Day says:
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    Grey,
    You mentioned in a post something about pairings. Well, I’d like to request a different draft strategy post: drafting by following your rankings versus espn/cbs/yahoo. Last year, yours were substantially different. Some players you have ranked significantly higher, and some them. This means that if I follow you by going to down your rankings, i’m going to likely pick some draft choices way ahead of my counterparts (assuming they don’t follow you, which 99% probably won’t) and some players I would pick much later are not going to be available because espn (et al) ranked them high. So when I enter the draft, i’m trying to figure out which players are going to be around a round later to pick up someone that is not going to be. Well, that is always the case I suppose when drafting. Regardless, would you consider adding something like: Carl Crawford: not going to be around in round 2 (i’m betting he is in espn top 10)?

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Curly Day: I see what you’re saying, I’ll see if I can do my best.

  20. DrEasy says:
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    Tears in my eyes! That “drafting and dinner” situation hit very close to home. I drafted Sizemore, and my divorce attorney is a rich man.

  21. Dom says:
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    I’m not sure if Grey makes money on the ads but he does when you buy him a dacquiri. See box following each post.

  22. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    @Grey:

    “And now you’ve drafted Randy Wolf and you’re getting a divorce.”

    Hello, Win-Win scenario.

  23. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey in a 12 team 5-5 roto league I’m in you have to draft 2 cathers what round should I think about drafting my first catcher?

  24. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Sir Grey, Where is Dotel falling in your Donkeycornhole tier thingamarankings?

  25. Dave says:
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    @Curly Day: @Grey: I could see a blurb like ‘target around pick 150′ or whatever being helpful for the players that you see being significantly over or undervalued in most drafts.

  26. jaysfan2020 says:
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    Hey Grey, a hypothetical for you (actually not hypothetical for a points league I’m in): based on the league’s scoring system, CHONE projects Holliday and Mauer to be essentially equal for 2010. Do I take the injury-risk and go with Mauer’s catcher eligibility, or go with the risk of Holliday turning back into the rather boring 2009-first-half Holliday?

    CHONE’s projection for Mauer doesn’t seem unreasonable, but I’m hesitating to keep a catcher above Holliday.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DrEasy: Hehe

    @Shmorgie S. Board: Ha!

    @Mikey boy324: Draft for value, maybe the 10th round, depends on the draft.

    @Doc: Mid-to-bottom Donkeycorn. Great closer if healthy, has a wonky elbow, terrible team.

    @Dave: Around 150 could work.

    @jaysfan2020: I’d take Holliday.

  28. The Dude says:
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    @Jeff W.: Yeah, I figured you weren’t counting on that system coming to fruition, always tough though to pick out the subtleties of sarcasm in text.

    @matthole: I suspect Grey isn’t touching the subject because he has contracts with the ad people. They tend to frown on falsely generated ad clicking for obvious reasons. If Grey publicly condones it he could be penalized. But yeah, why have ads if they don’t make you any $$?

    Anyway, back to more important issues…

    @Grey: I’ve now got King Felix and Greinke in my stable and am debating between Ichiro and Wainright as my final keeper. I know you’re not a big Ichiro fan, and apparently neither is anyone in my league, but he still seems like a keeper when there’s 12 teams keeping 8 players each. Thoughts?

    Thanks!

  29. The Dude says:
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    @Doc: @Grey: Hmm, if memory serves me the only time Dotel was a full time closer it wasn’t that pretty. He’s always been heavy on the K’s but can he handle the pressure?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Dude: Gotta keep Ichiro there.

  31. brett says:
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    @The Dude: Could you package Ichiro and Wainwright for a bigger bat?

  32. Tony says:
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    @matthole: HAHA you’re right! The coach was at Vandy but USE to coach at GT, man i was in the hospitality sweet because my guys know the guy who is the president of the entire state baseball assoc… free booze, free food, which = i got the story/schools all f’er’d up… lol

    ps GO BUCKEYES

    PSS this is a great site, i feel like i’m about 3 days ahead of my league, plus what other fantasy site gets 50+ replies to EVERY post? NONE…. i read everything and there’s not a site that gets half the good posts this one does. Many solid thoughts, observers, and ideas…. keep up the good work grey and the rest of the razzers keep helping out…

  33. big o says:
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    how long before hippo adds rich hill
    to his keeper team ?

  34. The Dude says:
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    @brett: I’ve been working on that. Hence the comment in my post “I know you’re not a big Ichiro fan, and apparently neither is anyone in my league”. Guys on the north side of 35 are a tough sell in a keeper league, especially guys who derive their value from speed.

    Doing the 2 for 1 deal is also a tough sell. At this point in the offseason, everyone is convinced their keepers are the best and they’ve got to be the one moving 2 players and upgrading to 1 better player.

  35. Danial says:
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    Great article! Grey, consider Jeff’s comments at #8!! LOL

  36. Mark Prior is throwing off a mound

  37. Bob says:
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    @Curly Dan, @Gray:

    It would be great if Grey did another cheat sheet for us, but in reality you can do it yourself. Simply see how Grey values a player and then compare it to the pre-rankings and see if a player Grey (and you like) is likely to be there by the next round. Of course, you never know. Players always go “too early” or “too late” in every draft. For example, I live in the S.F. Bay Area, and I know in this local that Stoner Lincecum and Fat Man Sandoval will go ahead of their pre-ranks. But I can use this to my advantage because I know Dodgers will drop because many of these “homers” don’t want to have a Dodger on their team. So I might be able to nab Matt Kemp out of one of the later slots.

  38. Bubba says:
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    U have a choice between Reimold or Price, who would you want on your roster as a reserve? Who holds more value?

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bubba: Price as a reserve…

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