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I don’t think Danny Salazar will be good in 2014.  He might be one of the worst pitchers this year.  Really no reason to read the rest of the post.  Go ahead on to the comments and ask me if I think Carlos Beltran is a good keeper.  That’ll teach the people who only skim the first few lines of each post.  Unless that previous line — or this line — are also read, then I apologize for my nefariousness.  I’m rooted in evil, but I’m trying to change my ways.  Maybe the love of a good, much older woman can save me.  We will see, together.  Give me a small pat on my hobby horse’s ass.  That’s fun for both of us.  Danny Salazar is in that pile of wonderful that could be this year’s Matt Harvey next year.  File him alphabetically in the manila folder labeled, “Yummy.”  Bee tee dubya, you think in the Philippines they call manila folders, “Capital City Folders?”  Is the Filipino flag a manila folder labelled, “Philippines?”  I got questions, y’all!  Last year, Salazar threw 52 IP with a 11.25 K-rate, 2.60 BB-rate and 2.75 xFIP.  To summarize in nonsensical words, whamo, hooha and zadow!  Can I draft him right now in every league?  Soon, Grey, you third-person-using fool!  So, what can we expect for 2014 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Geez, what doesn’t?  First, I guess we have to figure out if a 11+ K-rate is able to be maintained.  I don’t think it’s completely accurate to compare velocity of one pitcher who threw 50 innings and another who threw 200 innings, but Salazar’s fastball velocity of 96.2 MPH would be the best in the major leagues if he qualified.  Matt Harvey did lead the league and had a 95.8 MPH.  I could stop there.  You don’t need to be a rocket surgeon to figure out that if a guy can average 96 MPH he can succeed.  If he had control too, then, well, icing meet cake.  Last year’s Salazar 2.60 BB-rate isn’t far off from what we should expect.  In Triple-A, he had a 2.12 BB/9 and 2.67 in Double-A.  2.60 BB/9 would put him around that of Anibal Sanchez, Strasburg and Bumgarner — or Anibal Strasbumburg as I like to call them.  Those guys aren’t bad company to keep.  Honestly, I’m having a hard time finding negatives.  Here’s what I said in the beginning of August, “His name is Danny Salazar, and he’s a sexy beast that makes me want to get all flirty and shizz. I call him K-zar. It’s pronounced like czar, so it’s a soft K like his touch, but that’s where the softness ends.  He was regularly hitting 99 MPH on the speed gun-measuring-MPH-thingie and even topped out at triple digits.  Swoon.  I want K-zar in every single league.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Seriously, nothing’s changed.  Salazar might be a fantasy number one this year, but I’ll be just a wee bit conservative and project him for 10-8/3.40/1.19/180 in 170 innings.

241 Responses

  1. Matt says:
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    Will Carlos Beltran be a good keeper next year?

  2. Curt says:
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    I need to keep one of the following—–Aoki(96th pick overall), Cashner(180), Zunino(185), or C.Hart(270)??…..Thanks.

    • Sammyllenas says:
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      @Curt: Cashner seems like the only one that will have an ADP lower than 180 for 2014 out of those that you presented.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Curt: Cashner

  3. PublicEnemy#1 says:
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    Now you’re getting me all giddy! See how you are? I thought I knew Chapman was my 4th keeper, but now I’m starting to question things. I can only keep Chapman for 14 after 20 at $3 of my $250 budget. But, should I change course on that and keep K-Zar instead, who I can have at $1 for the next two years? I should note that this is a 16 team league that uses QS and Sv/H.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @PublicEnemy#1: It’s not easy, but I’d go with your original game plan, Chapman…

  4. Wake Up says:
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    The greatest trick that K-zar Soze ever pulled was convincing the rest of your league that he doesn’t exist…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up: And then…poof he disappeared…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: on to our teams…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  5. Wake Up says:
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    btw…3 1/2 hour set…went great…thanks for asking…positivity!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up: Awesome, man! You take requests? You say, I ain’t playing no damn Van Halen?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! I do take requests…but I would say that I’m not playing any Van Halen! Just read you went to the Playboy Mansion…how was that?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          The thought of going to the Playboy Mansion is more exciting than actually going… Though it is kinda cool to sit on the same toilet as one that gave Jon Lovitz herpes…

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: Ouch! Almost makes you want to stop sitting down to pee…almost…
            Yeah, my ex was Miss May…she was nothing special really…met many, many better people before and since…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Wasn’t that Dave Winfield’s ex?

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Grey: haha…didn’t “miss” the seagull…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  As they say, the seagull seeks the fish…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: and the whole Playboy thing is an Albatross…

                    wasn’t trying to name-drop btw…just agreeing with your point…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nah, I hear ya…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: and check out “Crystal Fairy and the Magic Cactus” for a nice little trip…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Will do!

  6. Count de Monetball says:
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    When Grey gets excited, I get excited, btw Grey, what were you doing at about 11pm last night, I suddenly got “excited” and I don’t know why????

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Count de Monetball: Actually was at the Playboy Mansion… So you have good instincts…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: @Grey: did Sky pass out from all the “excitment”?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @J-FOH: He passed out, not from excitement…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: the free beer?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Sky around an open bar I realized isn’t a safe thing

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: I realized you at a Korean BBQ can be dangerous. I think that lady hostess wanted to stab you in the neck with a chopstick

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  She was the one with the problem with gangnam style guy…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: right, I mean you did the dance perfect, I think she’s one of those if it’s cool then she don’t like it types.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Either that, or a white boy broke her heart in the 80′s and she can’t move on…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: broken heart or hymen

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Tomato-tomahto

  7. Southy says:
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    Need to keep 4 of the following veterans…no draft restrictions, 12 team roto 5×5:

    Pedroia
    Desmond
    Stanton
    Harper
    Ellsbury
    Wainwright

    And 2 of the following ‘rookie eligible’ players

    Bogaerts
    T. Walker
    A. Wood
    Arenado
    Zunino

    Am I crazy for wanting to keep 3 OFs? Definitely keeping Bogaerts. Unsure of my 2nd rookie keeper

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Southy: Not Desmond and Pedroia… Then Arenado, Bogaerts

  8. McGaffer12 says:
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    Need some keeper/trade help-
    gotta choose 3 of the following, I’ll include their rounds

    Hamels-5th
    Heyward-7th
    Ortiz-10th
    Trumbo-12th
    Boegarts-12th

    Separately, been offered the following trades-

    Can trade Kipnis 6th for Pedroia 3rd and Cargomez-12th
    and Hamels/Heyward for Strasburg 12th (one more year, than 4th)

    Lots going on here….need hlep!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @McGaffer12: Ortiz, Trumbo, Bogaerts… I’d take CarGo side and Strasburg side…

      • McGaffer12 says:
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        If I made those two deals, I would need to make one more decision:

        Keep 4 of the following:

        Pedroia-3rd
        Ortiz-10th
        Tumbo-12
        Stras-12th
        Bogaerts-12th
        Car Gomez-12th

        much appreciated!

          • McGaffer12 says:
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            Muchos!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              De nada

  9. Chin Music says:
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    Hi Grey,

    My current pool of potential starters for my 8×8 keeper league consists of 3 veterans and a lot of young arms I like that I loaded up on last year: Shields, CJ Wilson & Liriano, and then young guns Wacha , Cole (just traded for him), Wheeler & Salazar. QS and Pitcher BBs are league categories (as are holds) & the BBs tends to keep a guy like Wilson on the keeper bubble, and the QS boosts the value of a guy like Shields. I am looking at keeping 4, possibly 5 of these SPs. Unless I get a good offer, I really have to keep Shields, and I LOVE Wacha & Cole, so those 3 are pretty much etched in stone. I had been figuring that Liriano would be a certainty and that I’d have to deal or lose Wheeler & Salazar (not likely to find a taker for CJ Wilson), but I’m having second thoughts, even though I don’t think Liriano’s 2013 was a fluke. I’m wondering if I should try to sell high on him and clear space for Salazar. I love Wheeler’s stuff, but I’m wondering if maybe his still-developing control and good-not-great K rate from last season drop his value enough for me to snag him in the 2nd round of my draft –although a young SP with filthy stuff pitching in the NL East probably gets taken pretty quickly. There is a 1750 IP cap in the league, so K/IP rate definitely affects SP value (which hurts guys like Weaver & Jordan Zimmerman). How do you see the Shields/Cole/Wacha/Liriano/Salazar/Wheeler/Wilson pecking order?

    • Chin Music says:
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      @Chin Music: And as far as Salazar, the only red flags I have seen so far is that he’s a fly ball pitcher in maybe not the ideal park for a fly ball pitcher, high pitch counts (which hurts his QS total), and a tendency for teams to solve hisma little and get to him the 3rd time through the lineup.

      • Swagger Jackers says:
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        @Chin Music: I was thinking the same thing. He has a hard time going 6 innings so I anticipate a lot of frustrating 5 2/3 starts in QS leagues.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chin Music: Sell high on Liriano and keep Wheeler

      • Chin Music says:
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        @Grey: So you like Wheeler over Salazar?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

    • Chin Music says:
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      My (11) keepers for the 2013 season (coming off a 2nd place finish): Braun, Encarnacion, Ellsbury, Rios, Craig, Yadier Molina, Aramis Ramirez, Rollins, Halladay, Shields, Peavy. I would have been better off keeping Ortiz, who was unprotected, and I didn’t help myself by taking Haren & Beckett as the first two SPs I drafted. Things got ugly.

      In 2014, I’ll have 10 keepers. I’m coming off a 5th place finish, which would probably have been 3rd place if I hadn’t started stocking up on young players. The leading candidates for the final 10 are: Braun, Encarnacion, Ellsbury, Rios, Craig, Bogaerts, Sano, Shields, Wacha, Cole, Liriano, Salazar, Wheeler. Molina’s still a good player, but I’m letting him go. Sano and Wheeler I’ll probably leave unprotected and try to draft. Hell, I also have Dylan Bundy rostered, but I have too many other MLB ready options. I could have placed higher and gotten an 11th keeper, but 5th place in my league means the #1 pick in the draft, which tends to be a much better new player to the talent pool import player (think Yu Darvish) than a team’s last keeper, so this year that could be a Buxton, Tanaka, etc.

      I think if you look at the keepers from the one year to the next, you can see I did a quick overhaul from a pretty old team to one that is a pretty even mix of top young talent around a solid core of veterans The over-35 year old players have all been put out to pasture.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Well, you know your league better than I do…If you can draft back Wheeler, then go for it… Wheeler’s better than Salazar though…

        • Chin Music says:
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          @Grey: Thanks, Grey, Tough to say who would get taken first in my league between the 2 of them. I could see both going in the first round of the draft.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Gotcha

        • Chin Music says:
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          @Grey: With the # pick, I could draft Wheeler or Salazar back, but I’m thinking there will be someone better than either available. I don’t think it will happen this year, but last year, 2 teams got penalized for not declaring their keepers by the league deadline, and league rules ended up placing Tulo & Wainwright in the draft, who went 1-2. Rizzo was #3, but would have been #1 in a normal year. Darvish was the #1 pick in 2012.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Oh, then guess won’t know until you see who’s being kept…

            • Chin Music says:
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              @Grey: Yeah, that’s definitely why I would wait to see who’s 1) added to the Yahoo game and 2) kept before I would entertain any offers for the #1 pick. Unless someone has such a raging boner for Buxton they blow me away with an offer for the pick before waiting to find out if Buxton is actually in the game in 2014…

  10. Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I’m going to be walking around with a giant K-Zar in my pants all day. Do you think he’s the best of the 2nd year arms going into the season? I’m thinking the playoff inflation on Wacha makes Salazar the guy to target……

    • Chin Music says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: I’m probably higher on Wacha than most, but I think he’s the real deal — mini-Waino. I think Cole is also a monster 2nd year arm. Bigtime pedigree, triple digits on the radar gun, plays for a good NL team in a pitcher’s park, and his line in September was absurd with HUGE K totals. Not seeing anything there I don’t like heading into 2014.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: Nah, not the best of the 2nd year arms, but one of them… I like Wacha and Wheeler…

  11. Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I totally agree, I’m just thinking all the schmohawks are well aware of Wacha and after his playoff performance his ADP is going to be too rich for my blood. I love Cole as well but his success is as equally well documented as Wacha. I suppose what I’m really asking is does Salazar have the greatest potential return if the 2nd year arms based on his potential ADP being rounds after the other two aforementioned Sophmores?

      • Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: There are so many good 2nd year Pitchers this year it’s scary. After writing my initial comment I realized I forgot about guys like Wheeler, Cole, Fernandez, Archer, Miller, Teheran, and Ryu. Who amongst that group has the greatest upside? I figure it’s Wacha or Cole…..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Fernandez was already a top ten pitcher…

          • Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Yeah that’s true, the fact that he’s on the Marlins scares me. I know it’s irrational because he gets to pitch home games in the Crayon but I just feel like they’ll screw this up somehow. Or am I confusing the Marlins with the Mets?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha, yup

        • Jensen says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz:
          What are your thoughts on Smyly? Seems like he was mentioned as a potential stud starter prospect before last season. I think the Tigers have penciled him in as a starter for 2014.

  12. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    What to make of innings-per-start? Salazar ‘amassed’ 52 IP in 10 starts. 5.2 doesn’t seem cut it. What is a reasonable expectation for him to last in coming starts?

    How do you evaluate this sort of thing?

    Cingrani a marginally better 5.4 in 18 GS.

    • Chin Music says:
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      @simply fred: Cleveland was very careful in monitoring Salazar’s workload last year. I think that his pitch count was capped at around 75 pitchers per start all year long. That MLB debut he had, Tito seemed to get overly excited and let him throw like 108 pitches before Miggy launched a bomb, but after that he was back to the 75 pitch cap. It’s pretty hard to get to 6.0 IP or beyond on 75 pitches. I have to think if the reins are off this year and he regularly sees 100-110 pitches per start, he’ll get at least a little bit deeper into games. I think I’m more concerned about teams figuring him out that 3rd time through the lineup and his being susceptible to the long ball.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @simply fred: What Chin Music said… He was a rookie being watched closely… Doesn’t mean anything… He might not go 8+ innings a start, but he’ll hit 6 to 7 regularly…

      • Simply Fred

        simply fred says:
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        @Grey: thanks! concern vanishes

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  13. J Money says:
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    First off season in a new keeper league with odd keeper rules.
    Keep 3 players: 1 batter, 1 pitcher, and another of either.
    The thing is we keep them for the round yahoo has them projected at before the draft. (not sure why we set it up this way but we will most likely be changing it for the next year)

    12 Team Yahoo Roto 6×6 (OPS and QS)
    I am keeping Goldy as my batter so I need either 1 batter and 1 pitcher or 2 pitchers from the list below.

    Batters:
    Fielder
    Gyorko
    Alvarez
    Reyes
    Bautista
    Choo
    Brantley
    Aoki
    A Garcia

    Pitchers:
    Ryu
    Shields
    Zimmermann
    S Miller

    It is early to be doing this since we don’t have yahoo adp’s yet but looking to get your opinion now anyway. It the projected rounds make it too complicated, which 3 players would you keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No idea until Yahoo sets their ADPs… I guess Fielder and Zimmermann

  14. Marti says:
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    12 team dynasty league..can keep players as long as u want..have won league last two years but will be tough this year as a few teams are loaded…I can keep 6 of following

    Strasburg 22 no brainer
    Desmond 13
    Billy Hamilton 14
    Allen Craig 23
    Matt Adams 31
    George springer 32
    Madison bum 8
    K Jansen 30
    S gray 32

    Traded puig round 24 to win league..springer at round 32 is intriguing as he could be a top 30 guy in a couple of years..which 6 do u keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Strasburg, Desmond, Hamilton, Jansen, Gray, Craig

      • Marti says:
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        So u don’t think springer will be a great player in a couple of years…Jansen really a closer

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Jansen top 2 closer in the game… Who knows with Springer, guessing he’ll be good, just like Heyward supposed to be great for the last 4 years…

  15. g-stav says:
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    Nice article gray! I’ve kind of been waiting for you to start mentioning these second year pitchers because I have this idea that I could draft all second year pitchers onto a team and very well if not great. Do you it’d be a good idea to only draft second year pitchers for this year? that way I can use like my first 5 maybe 6 picks on hitters since it seems like that category might be a little dry next year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think it could work, for sure…

  16. Big AL says:
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    Yeah K-Zar gives me wood too. Pissed me off they wouldn’t let him go pass 4-5 innings last year, but he my be that special guy this year. What’s your feelings on Smyly from Detroit ? He has sleeper written all over him too. Plays for a great team who finally got a great closer too. My loins like this guy a lot. What ya think ? Does he need seasoning or is he going to be ready to produce some good stats this year ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Smyly will probably get a sleeper post at some point…

  17. TheNewGuy says:
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    Dude’s got other offers so I gotta come to you rather than Scott for some quick advice.

    Be dealing for B Hamilton, which of these pitching prospects would you do straight up for him:

    A Bradley, T Rosenthal, R Stephenson, K Crick.

    Would do Crick or Stepho obviously but I not sure I have time for much negotiations. Would you accept him for Bradley or Rosie too if that’s what it took?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Hamilton for any of them…

  18. slew says:
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    Looks like we’ve a new closer in Arizona, with Addison Reed being traded from the White Sox for Matt Davidson.
    The Sox sure are arranging quite a nice core of young players.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup, nice grab for the Diamondbacks…

      • Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: What are your thoughts on Davidson? It seems like a nice move for him. I imagine he’s got a shot at the job out of camp, he’s got good power and could put up some decent numbers.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d think he has the edge for the job out of the spring…

        • Elijah says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz:

          Davidson looks like an OK player, but defensively he’s just average for a 3b, and the early look at him seems to project him as a .260 hitter who will get you about 20 hrs a year once he adjusts to the majors. Pretty ho-hum, but then again looking around the league a lot of teams could use those #’s at 3b.

  19. AA says:
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    Which 5 of these guys do I keep:
    Pujols
    Cano
    Miggy
    Trout
    Segura
    Myers
    Verlander

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Trout

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sorry, thought you said which of these five… Not Verlander and Pujols

  20. Andy says:
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    Hi Grey,
    7×7 13 team, 6 keeper league with R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG and QS, Ks, Ks/9, SV, HD, WHIP, and ERA. $260 budget.
    Puig $1
    Bautista $1
    Segura $1
    Adam Jones $25
    Adrian Gonzalez $22
    Matt Adams $1
    Lucroy $1
    Salazar $1
    Ryu $1
    Cashner $1
    E Santana $1
    Leaning towards the first six listed, but what do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Those six are okay… Could see Salazar over Adams since you have a 1st baseman…

  21. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    guy doesn’t stop coming after d’arnaud. original offer was
    cowart MI LAA (this guy seems to rank pretty high)
    swihart C BOS
    farquar P SEA
    He added
    138th overall this year pick and
    2015 round 3 pick.
    Is this enough? If not would it be if I replaced Farquar with Cook P OAK?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nope

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Grey: it’s hard for me to even tell what a good offer for these super young up and comers would be in the case of Sale/D’Arnaud. The longer I either say “I’ll think about it” or decline them, the more offers come in (with more stuff added).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Don’t trade guys that are in the majors and producing well (Sale) for crap… Don’t trade a potential future All-Star catcher for junk prospects…

          • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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            @Grey: swihart could possibly be considered junky, but Cowart is LAA’s highest prospect on Scott’s team list and was 42nd in prospectus’s top 100 2013, but it certainly seems a good (in this case the best) catcher prospect is hard to find.

  22. OaktownSteve says:
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    These young arms are going to be tough to figure out. I was just taking a look at Shelby Miller just to see how he was handled last year. He made 30 starts if you exclude the one in LA where he only threw 2 pitches and left in the 1st. Over those 30 starts he averaged almost exactly 99 pitches per start with a max of 113. Miller pitched into the 7th or later only 7 times. His average number of pitches per inning was 17.8.

    Here’s Jose Fernandez numbers. 28 starts, 93 pitches per start, 15.11 pitches per inning, 13 starts where he went into the 7th inning or later and his max pitch count was 109.

    Sonny Gray made 10 starts, threw 93 pitches per start on average with a max of 118 and an average of 15.33 pitchers per inning and pitched into the 7th in 4 of his 10 starts.

    This all lines up with the way I feel like teams use pitchers early in their careers. They try to make sure the average is around 100 pitches a start and they also cap the innings at around 175.

    Salazar they were very cautious with his pitch count. He averaged only 82 per start but he also averaged 15.78 pitches per inning so it’s not like the lack of innings was a reflection of his efficiency. The reason for pointing that out is if you count on the Indians treating him similarly to how all teams seem to treat their young arms, then he should get deep enough in games to hang on for some wins. I think Grey’s numbers above look like they’ll be very accurate on IPs and Ks with the other stuff looking about right but having more variance +/-.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice comment, I agree with your agreement!

  23. Chin Music says:
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    LA Times is reporting Tanaka will be posted, after all. Grey, are you working on that sleeper write-up yet? I just fist-bumped myself. Woot!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t think he’s going to be a sleeper anywhere

      • Chin Music says:
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        I won’t know exactly who will be available in my league draft until probably mid-March. I did a projection for all 12 teams in my keeper league of which players I thought would be kept (we’ve been playing together a long time, people tend to know each other’s tendencies in evaluating players). Out of 125 keepers, I projected 44 SPs. Regardless of who doesn’t get kept, the 3 big names that are not yet added to the Yahoo game are Buxton, Bradley and Tanaka. There’s no guarantee either of the first 2 get added to the game this spring, or even contribute in 2014 (which is what you’ve previously said about both of them), so at least 1 of the three will now be there, if that’s the way I want to go with the pick.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Tanaka would be the first guy to take if he’s there… Unless the Rockies or someone crazy signs him…

          • Chin Music says:
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            @Grey: I totally agree, but I think with the posting figure is so “low” now that the big boys are not going to be outbid for this guy by any small or mid market team, although the Diamondbacks will try. Only exception I could see is Seattle because it’s always a friendly landing spot for Japanese players. Otherwise, I think the big dogs fight each other to sign him. I bet the Yankees are preparing to throw as much money at him as any other team.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yanks need him, so yeah…

  24. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    am i crazy for thinking i’d rather have
    estrada and s.burnett (have belisario/burton/o’day/j.johnson for RP already, could see dropping belisario anyway, waiver guys are cheaper and possibly better)
    than taylor jungmann P MIL? he’s big and was drafted in first round in 2011 but hasn’t controled much nor K’d people much since then and has fallen down to 10th on Scott’s MIL prospect list. Different owner will move both of those guys for jungmann. a lot of other guys in this league think jungmann is better end of that deal.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not crazy

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: soon hope to have finished this deal then, thanks.

  25. gareth says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Do you like the Indians additions of john axford and Shaun marcum?

    Axford is guaranteed 4.5 million for 2014 and the indians maintain control of him for two more years after that. Marcum signed a minor league deal and gets 1 million if he makes the big league rotation.

    So a total commitment of 5.5 million for them both in 2014.
    Obviously there’s risk there (and upside). But looking at all the money thrown around this offseason for the likes of ricky nolasco, phil Hughes, boone logan, joe smith, jason vargas and more – the investment really seems like peanuts in comparison.

    Antonetti will probably trade drew stubbs at some point before spring training (for a reliever or starting pitcher prospect) and make a few other minor moves before spring training. Hopefully a stubbs trade ends up like that small trade they made last year – mike aviles and yan gomes for esmil rogers. That turned out ok!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Marcum’s not really an addition, he’s a flyer to see if they can get 15 starts from him… Axford’s a nice addition… He should be fine as the closer…

      • gareth says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I’ll take marcum over the 7 million we blew on bret myers last year. Agree he’s a depth signing to compete for the 5th starter spot.

        Being a fan of Razzball for a while has made me appreciate Axford and his facial hair all the more!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice

  26. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    should deep dynasty leaguers have any interest in juan legares at this point?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: somewhere around a MI prospect or Dempster (hopefully dempster, please please be him). or lower draft picks. any of that fair for Legares. this team could really use some steals.

        • goodfold2 says:
          (link)

          @goodfold2: also have bums like reed johnson/jimenez CI LAA/dobbs could move.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Sure, try Dempster or an MI prospect

  27. Public Enemy#1 says:
    (link)

    Completed my first 50-Round NFBC Slow draft. It was a 15 team league and I had the 11th pick: Here’s my roster with the pick number in (xx).

    C)Posey (41)
    C)d’Arnaud (251)
    1B) Encarnacion (20)
    2B) Gyorko (101)
    3B) Lawrie (140)
    SS) Cozart (221)
    Ci) Moustakas (290)
    Mi) SDrew (281)
    OF) Harper (11)
    OF) JHeyward (71)
    OF) NCruz (161)
    OF) EYoung Jr. (190)
    OF) Bourn (201)
    U) Rutledge (320)

    Bench: AJ Ellis (371), Pollock (410), GJones (440), ARod (491), JWeeks (500), MFranco (521), Punto (530), JPederson (560), Lambo (590), Lagares (611), TFederowicz (641), Aledmys Diaz (671), FGalvis (710), CMcGehee (731), ARecker (740)

    SP) CLee (50)
    SP) Cobb (110)
    SP) SMiller (131)
    SP) DHolland (230)
    SP) Beachy (260)
    SP) ABradley (311)
    SP) Niese (341)
    RP) Chapman (80)
    RP) CJanssen (170)

    Other SPs: JKelly (380), Arroyo (401), JGarcia (431), GRichards (470), Erik Johnson (581), Rienzo (620), Volquez (650), DBundy (680)

    Other RPs: HBell (350), Axford (461), JPeralta (551), Joe Smith (701)

    Offensively, I’m drinking the KoolAid on Harper, as I feel these type of leagues are won with big upside guys. It was either him or Braun for me at pick 11 and I went with the less douchey option. I felt a little funny taking the first catcher off the board in Posey, but pick 41 for a two-catcher league seemed reasonable and there was a catcher run that followed. I passed on guys like Joey Bats, JUpton, Choo and Kemp at that pick and I’m hoping that isn’t something I regret. Several of my selections for offense felt like I was choosing guys who are big bounce-back candidates who had slipped too far in the draft (Mainly JHeyward, BLawrie, NCruz, Bourn, and Moustakas). I think my offense presents itself as a little injury prone, but I like the value I got on a lot of my selections and feel I covered myself depth-wise as best I could.

    On the pitching side of things, I wanted to make sure I landed one of the top 11 or 12 guys as an anchor and CLee seemed to fit the bill at number 50 overall. Cobb and SMiller feel like top 30 guys to me and DHolland as well as BBeachy would seem to have solid potential to finish as top 50 SPs. I think it was a solid move to get in on the combos of JKelly/JGarcia as well as EJohnson/Rienzo. For the upside, I went with ABradley who seems to have the greatest chance of the up and comers to have a shot at the rotation early on and make a huge impact at least as great as GCole did in 2013. As for RPs, I splurged on Chapman to give me some K-flexibility in my rotation which allowed me to get low ERA/Whip guys such as JGarcia, Arroyo, and Niese later on. Otherwise, landing CJanssen at 171 overall seemed pretty nice for a 2nd closer. I think I may have a couple SAGNOF closers in HBell/Peralta and Axford as well.

    What do you think, Grey, and anyone else who doesn’t mind chiming in?

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Public Enemy#1: nice getting Bundy where you got him, and E5 at 20th.

      • Public Enemy#1 says:
        (link)

        @goodfold2: Thanks, I figure anything Bundy can give me from August on will be a nice little boost to finish off the season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wow, really nice hitting… Looks very competitive… Don’t love outfield, but Heyward was nice where you got him… After him though, bit iffy, and speed heavy… Pitching looks just okay, I like your first two, then it gets pretty iffy…

      • Public Enemy#1 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks, Grey. Speed was something I kind of avoided early on, shooting for the old adage that speed can be had later in a draft. Well, sure enough, I got all the speed I needed with my back to back picks of Bourn and EY Jr. I figure 2014 will be like any other year and EY Jr.’s playing time will be toyed with here and there. When those times come, I’ll try and zigzag with a power bat like GJones or maybe Lambo if he gets a shot to contribute. Who knows, maybe ARod will beat all of or even a portion of his suspension and be a power steal for me at pick 491 overall.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Agreed, can’t hurt that late in the draft to gamble…

  28. gareth says:
    (link)

    Tanaka being posted hurts the market of ubaldo, garza and santana. Right?
    If the eagles retained him for 2014, those clubs waiting it out on him who were denied would probably rebound and overpay one of those other free agent starters.
    Kinda like a guy who’s hot girlfriend dumped him so goes out and immediately marries his dowdy, frumpy high school ex girlfriend. A few years later regret and heavy drinking set in.

    BUT……Now japanese kate upton is actually available! Its like baseball bachelorette (instead of a rose they get negotiating rights).

    Who’s in the running to win the heart of this japanese beauty?

    The two hot studs (yankees, Dodgers) are probably front runners, but you can’t discount the dark horse who does have lots in common with the object of their affection (nintendo, hidashi slurp slurp) – the mariners.

    So who gets to say “tanaka, will you marry me?”

    My predictions: yankees get tanaka, the diamonbacks get garza, Toronto gets jiminez, mariners get santana.

    The dodgers react by buying the astros and marlins.

    • Public Enemy#1 says:
      (link)

      @gareth: Ha, buying the Marlins and Astros might be the cheaper route for the Dodgers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha… Japanese Kate Upton sounds hot, shoot Croatian Kate Upton doesn’t sound bad… Yeah, definitely doesn’t help them…

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: hope he’s right about SEA getting santana.

  29. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    guy that wanted Sale (but ain’t getting him) said he’d throw in erasmo to take dempster off my hands to finish Sale deal. Just thought he may like Griffin better than Erasmo. I’m guessing we should like Erasmo more? Might be able to do the rarest thing, a str up young pitcher for young pitcher deal.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Why do you want to trade Sale?

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: i’m not trading Sale, I just referenced that to show that this other owner could very well value Griffin over Erasmo, and I have Erasmo, and it’s possibly we should like Erasmo more. If so I could get Griffin str up.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Griffin straight up for who?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Erasmo? That’s not a good trade

            • goodfold2 says:
              (link)

              @Grey: last night’s convo somebody else mentioned Griffin was just a control artist in a pitcher’s park with little fastball speed and mediocre secondary stuff. So even with that being true, Erasmo is still worse. Got it.

              • goodfold2 says:
                (link)

                @goodfold2: sorry i wrote that backwards. sorry. i have griffin and wonder whether or not
                griffin > erasmo
                i could get erasmo. I literally put myself into opp’s place while think from his perspective. that’s weird.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Griffin = Erasmo at this point, Erasmo has a bigger upside…

                  • goodfold2 says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: cool so i’ll try to trade for erasmo

  30. herschel says:
    (link)

    @Grey: first time back since end of last season. early keeper question. our league keeps two guy drafted after the 4th round or later (losing a pick of that round), players can be kept for up to 3 years max. 5 x 5 roto, weekly league. which two do you like best (round drafted in parentheses).

    choo (5)
    pence (9)
    s. miller (15)
    teheran (18)
    kenley (22)
    rizzo (24)

    thanks. also, how was the wedding?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      The wedding was cool, except the part where I got married…. Rizzo, Kenley…Tough call on the 2nd one…

  31. duder says:
    (link)

    Good writeup, but he’ll have to quit throwing 4 innings per start to reach those #s. Agree that all of the metrics you mentioned are beastly, but his efficiency is ballstastic. It’s tough to win 10 games when you can never make it to the 7th inning. I foresee lots of 3.2 inning, 8 K games where he racks up 90 pitches and gets pulled. As such, not sure if he’s worth the likely 10th/11th round pick it’ll take to get him (I doubt you’ll be the last to bring up a Matt Harvey comparison).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, hopefully he’ll be go deeper into games as mentioned above in the comments…

  32. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    lowrie or arenado? forever dynasty

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado

  33. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    Yankees’ youth movement continues apace.

  34. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    looking good.
    1. legares guy will give me something else and legares for dempster
    2. sale guy surely does think griffin is better than erasmo, i’m getting erasmo and other stuff.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: 1.he wouldn’t move cody martin ATL P ranked 10th by scott, but under that by baseball america. but did move hale P ATL (ranked 7th baseball america ATL prospect)
      for hale and legares for dempster (CONTRACT GONE!)
      2. got erasmo and 2 early 5th rounders for griffin (this year and 2015); and you also think erasmo is better player anyway. boom!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Cool

  35. Todd says:
    (link)

    Where does kzar fall with the rest if these guys? Wheeler, t walker, s gray, y ventura, j paxson. T-walk excites me, what do u think. Also what about Archie Bradley, u think he is a mid season call up or is he bringin more to the table?

    Sweet stuff grey

  36. Todd says:
    (link)

    Look forward to it

  37. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Got a trade offer I need to respond to sharpish if I want a shot at getting him.

    Been working a deal for B Hamilton in my keeper league. I offered one pitching prospect but he’s countered with Rosenthal and R Stephenson. Big price to pay but I’d be getting a potential category winning speedster, and I really need another bat on my farm. Take the deal or try to whittle it down to something less?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup, as said the other day, any of those pitchers for Hamilton…

      • TheNewGuy says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Its both pitchers but if that’s what you mean, that wow you must love Hamilton.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I have him projected for 67 steals as a rookie… And I’m being conservative… That’s a top 20 outfielder…

  38. The Vaporizers says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, not sure if you’ll see this, but had a quick keeper league question.

    Who would you target out of Matt Holiday and Jason Heyward???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Heyward

  39. DanThe MuttFan says:
    (link)

    I just traded Jorge Soler for Danny Salazar in a 16 team head to head league. Since this is a dynasty league… good move or bad move?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Probably just fair by year, but I like it for now… Scott really loves Soler: http://razzball.com/index.php?s=soler He seems like the real deal, but he’s still a good 18 months away from making a huge impact…

  40. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    could probably move lowrie for either arenado or fister. i’m guessing arenado is the better bet here? I really could use corner guy for future (it’s my weakest prospect area), do have beltre for now. deep dynasty league with 2 CI’s and 2 MI’s. currently rocking beltre/ciriaco. Could get Kelly Johnson to play either, but his starting price (not to mention bidding price) is like 6.5 mil or some shit.

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: or would I be better off moving beltran for arenado and just keeping lowrie. It might be possible to get more than arenado for beltran as well. I also would be back over 34 mil in freed money by doing that.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: if beltran is worth more than lowrie I could flip lowrie for arenado and use beltran to get more elsewhere.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Lowrie is better to move

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado

  41. Tom says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey when will you start posting your rankings?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Mid-January

  42. Bill says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Another “expert” who I think is good, recommends caution due to: a) lack of evidence that he can go deep in games; b) thinks closer talk might carry weight. Love to hear your thoughts on the risk Salazar has that he can’t maintain efficiency, etc , once he is asked to go deeper into games.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He doesn’t walk many people and he was a rookie last year, the Indians were being cautious…

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: that’s what they said about me too, that i can’t go deep in games. well, since they’ve never thought to actually let me pitch even one pitch, who’s to say how deep I can go? 150 is within realm of belief. Then again, if is a big word to sane people.

  43. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    guy is offering delino deshields (is he really 2nd or 3rd fastest behind billy and dyson?) for my beltran (I might be able to get pick thrown in) Guy also has buxton and syndergaard. should i try for one of the others (would I be right in having to add something extra for buxton or syndergaard) my OF is currently a-jax/legares/leonys and delino is apparently moving back to OF. Or should I get more for beltran now? This may be one of those situations where if beltran stays healthy and/or gets really hot i could move him in june/july (our trade deadline is end of july) for much more.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: sans Beltran I would definitely be able to get kelly johnson (qualifies at every position,and seems to be best free agent, unless jimmy rollins counts, which he doesn’t) for this season and could afford it.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: guy ain’t doing buxton or syndergaard str up for beltran.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Get more

  44. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    here’s a funny one, is trading sale for harvey (once we hear good things about harvey’s recovery, of course) if I get extra stuff thrown in any good?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: enough complications possible with recovery in harvey’s case I guess then.

  45. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Iwakuma ($3) or Garza ($2). Both nice players at nice prices, who would you rather keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Iwakuma

  46. Jason says:
    (link)

    Settle an argument.

    Braun or Stanton as a keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Stanton

      • Jason says:
        (link)

        @Grey: yeah buddy!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA! Great picture of him… He looks kinda like a Latin Redd Foxx…

      • Carnac says:
        (link)

        I hope LA signs him so his player card becomes: “Age: 30 but can still play a 27″

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Or: Can play ages 27-40.

          • Carnac says:
            (link)

            There you go again, making this all about Cougs.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha

  47. matt says:
    (link)

    So Choo turned down 7yrs $140 million from the yanks expecting to get more? He’s not even worth $15 million per year! Baseball players are some of the most over paid snobs in all of sports. In other news the white sox signed a 1/3 of the D Hacks organization. Haha It’s kind of a good move for Chicago though dont you think? Davidson & Eaton can fill a couple positional needs in real world not necessarily carry over to fantasy.. Sin Su Choo pfft…What an ass

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s not worth two million per year if it was coming out of my wallet, but yeah crazy…

      • matt says:
        (link)

        @Grey: well yah… in terms of spoiled ballplayers he’s more like a 7-8 per type of player actually. That’s my opinion. He’s crazy if he thinks any other club besides NY is offering him close to that amt.

        • Chin Music says:
          (link)

          @matt: Boras will get him that $$ from soime team. It may take a secret deal where Boras gives a team a guarantee that he’ll direct a future A list free agent to that team if they just take Choo off his hands now, but Boras will make it happen. He always does. Two words: Kyle Lohse.

          • matt says:
            (link)

            @Chin Music: He may get $20 per but not that many years. That’s my prediction. He’s definitely going to use the yank offer as leverage.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  48. matt says:
    (link)

    Oh..and yes, I want some of that sexy man beast K Zarrrrrrr..rarrrrrr. I have him in a keeper already. Lucky Me :-)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice

  49. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    What do we think of Stubbs in Coors? Sent to the Rockies for Josh “Can’t Get An” Outman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wow, is this for real?

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: pretty pretty cool.

      • costaricanchata says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        yeah , if one of you guys could figure out what time it’s going to occur
        where you live , i’d appreciate that , but am not sure what this british guy is using
        as a baseline .
        as i read it , there’s a 5 minute window of opportunity , here , to jump for 30 seconds .
        even an old guy like me should be able to get a couple of shots at it .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m just gonna go to my roof that night and sleep there so I’m even closer to Jupiter…

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: My working knowledge of Astrophysics does not allow me to consider this to be true. Our tidal pool is controlled by our moon not an alignment of the planets. Pluto is not a planet. According to positrons, quarks, dark energy and dark matter, technicolor W and Z bosons, quantum chromodynamics, strong nuclear force, the Higgs Field, Non-Newtonian Fluid, The Secret, Orson Welles, and The Bleacher Report, this is simply to do with 1-4-14…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Pluto is not a planet, but Orson Fields was a planet…Especially in his later years…

              • Wake Up says:
                (link)

                @Grey: “We know now that in the early years of the twentieth century this world was being watched closely by intelligences greater than man’s and yet as mortal as his own”…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Is that a quote from Orson Welles?

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
          (link)

          @costaricanchata: hopefully he is using great britain as a timeline. if so,it’s 5 hours ahead of new york. so that’s 4:47 AM jan 4 2014 eastern time. 3:47 for us midwesterners, (west of Indianapolis, which I learned traveling east on a bus to buffalo). good news is that’s a late night friday for us then. should make for some silly ass bar bets for those of us lucky enough to live in states with really good bar laws (closing time laws), us in MO don’t have these (DOH).

    • Wake Up says:
      (link)

      @costaricanchata: About 4 months early for this, no?

  50. higgs says:
    (link)

    Ok, ready for a deep deep league? NL only 12 team 5×5 auction. 12 keepers, 6 minor league players either by keeping or by draft. This is what I have:

    Rosario $7
    Craig $7
    Segura $2
    Asche $3
    Gomez $2
    Ruggiano $1
    Ruf $4
    Choo $33 (not likely to stay in the NL)
    Marisnick $3 (minor league contract)
    Medlen $1
    Morton $2
    Estrada $7
    Samardzijia$1
    Papelbon $27
    Storen $1

    and a bunch of cheap scrubbs.
    I’d like to package papelbon and Ruf, but I think I’ve got 12 excellent keepers. How mch do I rock?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Keepers look pretty decent… Looks like you have about six solid keepers than a bunch of question marks…

  51. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    springer for beltran good enough? de shields not enough by himself.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds decent…

  52. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Recent trade I completed, im the one getting Hamilton:

    B Hamilton (prospect) & Iwakuma ($3) & B Jackson (throw-away prosp)
    FOR Rosenthal (prosp) & Stephenson (prosp) & Estrada ($9) (throw-away)

    Did the boy do good?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Did very good…

  53. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Have a chance to get Ellsbury for $21 bucks next year, much value in that? How much do you see him going for on draft day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends on the league… Maybe $30-ish

  54. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    Arenado guy won’t do him for Lowrie. what about lowrie for yelich? all of a sudden yelich is tradable, yesterday he was still off limits. Also trying to shop beltran for different stuff. Guy at 5 overall 2014 won’t go for it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: good to know, thought yelich/arenado were closer in value.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
          (link)

          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: mostly due to yelich getting steals and him being higher in last year’s Prospectus.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Arenado being a third baseman changes things for fantasy…

  55. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    amongst prospects how high up would you have that abreu 1B WSOX guy?

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: scott put out his WSOX list before that dude was signed, but guys in this one league are gonna draft him like top 8 this coming year.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
        (link)

        @Grey: oh shit, i forgot he was THAT guy.

        • goodfold2 says:
          (link)

          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: jesus, neither one of those dudes seems worthy of a top 10 pick when guys like moran 3b MIA/frazier OF CLE are still around. also guys like ervin OF CIN. thanks, I forgot those were those guys from around a month ago’s post.

  56. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    is asche larry worth trading for if it’s a dynasty, wherein we could be worried about frankel taking his job in a year or less?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends what you’re trading for him

  57. Fish says:
    (link)

    Kzar is going to have a restraining order against me before catchers report.

    That’s how over this guy I am.

Comments are closed.