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Dallas McPherson reminds a lot of myself, if I hit 42 home runs in my last year of Triple-A, or if I played in the minors or any sort of organized sport.  I was a city checkers champion in 6th grade. Cust kayin’.  Speaking of striking out, Dallas McPherson just struckout. And again. Whenever you’re reading this, there’s a good chance McPherson is striking out somewhere.  He’s like Mr. Furley in the Regal Beagle.  McPherson struckout 168 times last year in the minors.  That’s a lot.  I don’t know who holds the record for most strikeouts in a minor league season, because I’m too lazy to Google it, but I have to think McPherson challenged that record last year.  Remember they play less games in the minors.  168 is a lot of strikeouts.  A real lot.  He only played in 127 games.  He also walked a lot.  They call these players, Three True Outcome players, because there’s three possible outcomes when they come to bat, strikeout, walk or home run.  Okay, Alice Cooper, school’s out!  So why is Dallas McPherson is a fantasy sleeper for 2009?

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.

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  1. Denys says:
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    What do you think of DeRosa moving to Indians? How much does his value drop?

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Denys: I see DeRosa as a 15/65/.280 2nd baseman which places him between 10 and 12 on the top 2nd basemen list.

  3. drizzle21 says:
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    Hey Grey (or anyone else who wants to chime in). What are your thoughts about having lots of upside (but also a fair deal of risk) at the CI spots?

    For example, let’s say that I have an insecurity complex that makes me draft one of the top 2 tiers of 1B in one of the first 3 rounds. For discussion’s sake, let’s say someone fairly safe like AGon. Then I manage to get over my fears and have pegged Chris Davis as a player I’d like to get if he’s available for pretty good value. Is the stability of Adrian enough to let me go out on a limb and get McPherson for my CI way late?

    Bad case scenario, Davis isn’t all that and a bag of chips and I have to use McPherson at 3B and find a better CI. Worse case scenario, both underwhelm. What are your thoughts on having that much risk (and upside!) in those positions and in a scenario like the one outlined?

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @drizzle21: I think the first spots you want a lot of upside is at your MI spot, your last starter or your 5th OF, in that order. You can risk upside at those positions because other teams best case scenarios aren’t going to be that much better. The 4th place I could see an upside pick is CI. Some teams are going to have decent bats there, but other teams will have schmohawks like Blalock. So you have to weigh the pros and cons. In theory, if you have lots of risk at CI you don’t want as much at some of the other aforementioned spots.

  5. @drizzle21: I agree with Grey. I think you need solid predictable production out of 1B and 3B. CI is a decent slot to go upside over predictability as there will also be guys like Cantu or Longoria that hit the radars after the draft.

    I’d add ‘catcher’ to the list of positions where it’s worth gambling on the upside…

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @drizzle21: Ah, yes. As Rudy points out, I forgot Catcher. I’d put that in the first group of spots where risk/upside is feasible.

  7. Glenallen Hill holds the minor league whiff record with 211 whiffs in 466 at bats in the 1985 season in Kinston of the Carolina League. He must have thought every pitch was a spider.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jason Collette: Ah! That makes so much sense. Imagine Hill without the HGH. A smaller first base helmet for one.

  9. sean says:
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    What can we really expect out of McPherson? I wonder about his durability. He’ll be 28 in June and he’s already had season-ending surgery twice, once to fuse vertebrae in his back.

    His numbers seem to point to him being Mark Reynolds more than Miguel Cabrera. Again, this is definitely about risk/reward, but we’ve gotta be talking round 20+ for me to think about drafting McPherson…

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Every indication is he will have the opportunity. The Marlins are committed to him as of right now. Some has been made that because he stole some bases recently in the minors that his back concerns are behind him (pun intended). In the 20th round, it’s worth the flier, but he’s definitely more Reynolds than Cabrera.

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