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Who could have predicted that Justin Morneau would have a career revival after moving to Coors Field? Nearly everybody. Yes, he’s clearly benefitting from his favorable home park, but he’s also hitting well on the road. He appears to be swinging at nearly everything and, fortunately, is hitting it so far. However, this approach isn’t sustainable, even in Coors. I think he’s a great sell-high candidate if you can find somebody who believes that he’s going to maintain anywhere near this level of performance due to his new home ballpark. Even with some regression, I think the park and aggressive approach will allow him to have a noticeable improvement from his past couple seasons, with a .280/.350/.480 line going forward. This is roughly his career slash line, so it’s a reasonable expectation for him. Anyway, here are some other players on my mind and what it means for OPS and OBP leagues:

Lucas Duda should probably be owned in more leagues. Yes, I intentionally qualified that because he feels like a poor man’s Nick Swisher (what Swisher used to be, not this year’s version), which is about as unexciting as it gets. I don’t think he’ll produce much better than his current .254/.338/.460 line, but an .800 OPS off the waiver wire is valuable. He’s even better in daily leagues, where you can bench him against lefties (career .632 OPS against lefties and .817 OPS against righties). Speaking of solid platoon guys who might be available on waivers…

Everything I said about Duda applies to David Murphy, but that slash line is closer to Murphy’s ceiling, whereas Duda has a bit of upside in OBP and slugging. Ok, I’ll get back to a less boring name. How about one of my favorites?

It’s been well-documented that I l love Josh Donaldson. His 2014 OBP is lower than I anticipated but his slugging is significantly higher. I’m still confident in my .290/.370/.490 projection for him this year (how’s that for consistency?) and he’s looking like the rare third basemen without glaring issues. Ryan Zimmerman has fallen off a cliff (I’m assuming that’s how he was injured) and David Wright may not be too far behind. Adrian Beltre appears to have recovered from his injury, but he’s not getting any younger, at least not to my knowledge. And Miguel Cabrera, well that’s a topic for another time…

Carlos Santana has been awful this year, but I’m not concerned at this point. I still expect him to post a high OBP (~.360) going forward with an OPS around .800, so he could be a nice buy-low option.

Carlos Ruiz has quietly had a solid start to the year. His upside this season could resemble Santana, so he could be a nice waiver wire guy if he’s available.

Martin Prado isn’t this bad. Sure, he’s been striking out more and walking less, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point. I think he could be a nice buy-low option if you need infield help and he should approach his .282/.333/.417 line from 2013 for the rest of 2014.

  1. ScooterG says:
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    Better spot starter to stream for Sunday…

    W Peralta vs Chi
    D Gee vs Mia
    M Harrison @ Seattle

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @ScooterG: Wily isnt a streamer, start him and own him.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @ScooterG: I agree with Swfcdan – Wily is a tier above the others.

  2. schtickball says:
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    would you platoon duda over joyce or dickerson??

    • zaron says:
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      @schtickball:
      I would go with Joyce for now. He looks locked in vs RHP right now.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @schtickball: I agree with zaron – go with Joyce right now.

  3. Peejer says:
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    Mesoraco montero or Ruiz rest of way in Espn H2h?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Peejer: I’d go with Montero in a standard league and Ruiz in an OPS/OBP league.

  4. Em says:
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    The pirates are terrible, can’t score at all. When are they gonna bring up polanco? Should I stash this dude now?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Em: Yeah I’d stash him if he’s available in your league. Everybody is saying he won’t come up until June to avoid Super Two status, but I think there’s a chance he could come up sooner if the Pirates are able to negotiate a long-term deal with Polanco.

      • hanklongball says:
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        @Tom Jacks: how much is too much to offer in a trade for Polanco?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @hanklongball: I wouldn’t treat him higher than a Heyward/Myers type, which obviously is not a knock on him at all

  5. Swfcdan says:
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    Well my best hitter Crush Davis goes down in my keeper league and Frieri loses the closer job, just another typical day in the life of a fantasy owner…

    Few questions who do you like more in OBP leagues:

    C Crawford (blech), Fowler (equal blech), or Eaton (love his OBP but wheres the steals?) pick 2 outta 3
    Rendon or Lowrie (much better choices)
    M Adams or Hart (wheres the power Adams?)
    E

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: Also time to buy low on Kemp (same OBP league)?

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Swfcdan: Yeah I would, depending on the price

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Swfcdan: Yeah I’m losing Davis in an extra base hits league, not good…
      Eaton and Fowler
      Rendon
      Adams

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks for all the above.

        Got a big offer in though and need your advice (can’t ask Grey as he lurves Segura!).

        I get J Upton (1 year rental)
        I give Segura ($6 obviously keepable)

        I love the fact id be getting a power outfielder which is just what I need. I’m not sold on Segura long-term, even though he’s cheap right now, should be a decent keeper but is he really going to blossom into a stud? Not sold.

        I think I need to go for it and do it. Thoughts?

        • Swfcdan says:
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          @Swfcdan: Oh yeah and more importantly I have a good backup SS in Lowrie (currently being using him at Util he’s been hitting so well)!

          • Swfcdan says:
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            @Swfcdan: And to clarify Segura’s keeper value (if your brain isnt melted by now) i’d probably sign him for 2 years ($12) or 3 years ($14) in the offseason if I don’t deal him. But getting Upton would be mighty useful.

            Why couldn’t keeper league deals be easy!

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
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              @Swfcdan: Haha no problem. I’m fine with the deal since it clearly helps you now and you’re trying to win now

  6. Will says:
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    Should I pick up Jon Singleton off waivers? If so how many FAAB points should I bid? Also, who should I drop?

    10 team, 5×5 keeper league

    C- Rosario
    1b Pujols
    2b gyorko
    Ss segura
    3b bogaerts
    OF Harper, Stanton, Marte, Adam jones
    UTIL – Myers, Moreau
    Bench – Ozuna, Yelich, machado, Baez

    SP – Tehran, gray, Salazar, cole, Chavez
    RP – walden, farnsworth, joe smith, fieri

    DL – Cobb

    Thoughts?

    • Will says:
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      @Will: also, what players are good options for using Morneau to trade for? Just trying to see the options you think he could bring.

      • Will says:
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        @Will: maybe trade Morneau for a closer or 2. A guy has Nathan, Soria, Axford, and Kibrel. Thoughts on a target for trading Morneau?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Will: I’d be ok with trading Morneau for any of those closers, but I’d look to do a 2 for 1 deal first

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Will: Singleton is a guy to bid on aggressively in keeper leagues, but he might only be an upgrade over Morneau and your bench guys. Can you look to trade Morneau in a 2 for 1 deal? Like Morneau and Yelich for Bruce or Hosmer?

      • Will says:
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        @Tom Jacks: we can only keep 5 in our league. How high should I bid on singleton? Who to drop? Springer went for $76

        • Will says:
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          @Will: drop Ozuna or Yelich for singleton?

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @Will: If you get Singleton, I’d drop Ozuna. Depending on how much $ you have left, I’d bid close to Springer’s price because he may be one of the last big name guys coming up soon… unless Gregory Polanco is still out there

            • Will says:
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              @Tom Jacks: well, he is still out there after waivers past this morning. I didn’t see this comment until the deadline past. Also, I have Baez and I’m hoping he comes up. Polanco is also available . I’m going to try trading morneau and yelich for hosmer or Bruce and we shall see what happens there. Thanks for the advice. Also I have Machado coming back soon so I could look at trading bogaerts later if needed

              • Tom Jacks

                Tom Jacks says:
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                @Will: sounds like a plan, good luck!

                • Will says:
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                  @Tom Jacks: I didn’t think the other comment went through. Oh well

            • Will says:
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              @Tom Jacks: unfortunately I didn’t see this until the deadline past. However no one picked him up. I can try again tomorrow. Also Polanco is available and I already have Baez.

              I’m trying to trade morneau and yelich now. So we will see what happens there too. Thanks for the recommendations

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Will: In that case, I don’t think Singleton will be much help. He’s probably not going to be significantly better than Yelich or Ozuna, and definitely won’t be a top 5 keeper for you.

  7. Harris says:
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    Any concerns about Allan Craig?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Harris: Not really. There’s a couple minor issues, but no red flags. I think he’ll be close to who he was last year going forward.

  8. Sherm says:
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    OBP league, I’ve got eight guys for six spots but can’t decide who to move. Thoughts on trading at least one of these guys? Or should I hold? Seems Kemp and Victorino are injury prone and I may need the bench strength, but I hate holding bench bats and seeing that production go to waste. Thanks–

    Daniel Murphy
    Jennings
    Victorino
    N Cruz
    Blackmon
    Dozier
    Kemp
    Springer

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Sherm: I’d look to trade one of your over-performers, like Cruz or Blackman, in a 2 for 1 deal to upgrade one of your second basemen

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Sherm: No problem!

  9. allen says:
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    Sup razzers…best pick up for a fill in while mesaraco is on DL???

    Ruiz
    Flowers
    Suzuki
    Navarro

    • Chuck says:
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      This kid Flowers seems to be on base all the time.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @allen: I’d go with Ruiz

  10. Bombo Rivera says:
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    Nothing like trading for Morneau and then seeing a Razzball post advocating the sale of Morneau. Oh well. I feel OK about it. I stuck to my board on draft day, and it left me a little short on power in my RCL. I have a glut of MIs, so I have Carpenter at third and Bogaerts at CI, two positions where you might want power guys. Since Votto is my 1B, I don’t have a huge power guy there either. I also have BHam and Dee Gordon, so I can’t really get any power out of those positions. Meanwhile, I’m first in saves due to my ragtag collection of closers and pseudoclosers (Perkins, Soria, Santos, Broxton, Smith, Rondon). Anyhow, I shipped Soria for Morneau. I figure I lose that one on value, but it looks like I wasn’t going to get anything better for one of my RPs (I tried, and got offered the likes of Jake Peavy). Now I need to turn Gordon or Bogaerts into something useful, but I’m happy to wait awhile on that one.

    Does Soria for Morneau seem fair enough given the state of my team?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bombo Rivera: Yeah, that’s a fair deal given your team. He won’t have as much of a noticeable drop in standard, non-OPS leagues.

    • Benito says:
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      @Bombo Rivera: Ha, how great that this post goes up today of all days. I just traded Morneau for Soria, how’d I do??

      Trades aren’t made in a vacuum, it depends on team needs obviously. Health will probably be the biggest factor with these guys. Glad this wasn’t posted yesterday though!

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Benito: Ha! Same league then? I think the deal is fair on both sides, assuming it helps both teams fill a need.

        • Benito says:
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          @Tom Jacks: Yeah, same league. It was a little tough letting Morneau go because I think Coors will treat him well this year but the trade addressed shortcomings for both of us.

      • Bombo Rivera says:
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        @Benito: Hey “Benito,” if that is in fact your real name. . . yeah, you won this deal. Maybe we do a Stanton for Leonys Martin deal to even things up?

        • Benito says:
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          @Bombo Rivera: It’s a little premature to declare a winner. Everybody has there own value of players and the differences of opinion is why we have a game! People like to declare winner/loser after a trade but it’s pretty meaningless usually. I’ll keep that Stanton offer in the back of my mind, no promises though.

          • Bombo Rivera says:
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            @Benito: Sure, but there’s a part of my medulla oblongata that believes in jinxes and reverse jinxes. You win!

            Of course, now that I’ve stated the word “jinx” Morneau will hit three HRs before our trade processes. Then he’ll celebrate by head-butting Charlie Blackmon, thus crushing my team in one fell swoop.

  11. Michael says:
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    Roto League with: XBH, SB, HR, OBP, RBI. WHIP, Ks, QS, SVs + Holds.

    My OBP and HR are low, as well as Ks and Saves + holds. I have trade talks going now.
    Should I trade away longo and werth for cargo and rizzo/wheeler? Or Should I trade away longo and dee gordan for Tulo and rizzo/wheeler?

    Thank you!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Michael: I really like the second one. Once Dee falls back to Earth, it will be a huge upgrade to Tulo. Going from Longoria to Rizzo isn’t a large step down either.

      • Michael says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Much Thanks!!

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Michael: You’re welcome!

  12. Battle of the Sleepers says:
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    Hey, great rundown. Just when I was thinking of trying to get Morneau. :)

    Question: I have Longo as my primary 3b lately. I also have wright, who unfortunately is wasted platooning in my UTIL slot or benched. What you think of Wright for Ellsbury? Nothing else, slight upgrade for UTIL?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Battle of the Sleepers: I’d do it. It’s a nice, slight upgrade as you said.

      • Battle of the Sleepers says:
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        @Tom Jacks: I also have Hosmer riding bench–Abreu starting. Should I hold him for when Abreu cools off, or Abreu look legit so try and shop Hosmer? What level could I get for Hosie?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Battle of the Sleepers: I’d actually look at it the other way – maybe you could trade Abreu since his value may be sky high? I wonder if you could buy low and sell high by trading him for Encarnacion or Fielder.

          • Battle of the Sleepers says:
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            @Tom Jacks: still leaves me with a good benched 1b, but I’ll try shopping Abreu too

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
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              @Battle of the Sleepers: Good point… maybe you can do a 2 for 1 involving Abreu and a different position you’d like to upgrade

              • Battle of the Sleepers says:
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                @Tom Jacks: Luccroy, Abreu, Kinsler, Longo, Alexi Ramirez, Trout, Bruce, Beltran, Springer, Ellsbury/Wright, Hosmer for bats….Price, Shields, Tanaka, Hamels, Cobb, Fister, Sale for SP (DL heavy but still solid)…Only gap is RP, but no closer is worth Abreu… Good predicament to have I guess :)

                • Tom Jacks

                  Tom Jacks says:
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                  @Battle of the Sleepers: Yeah, it’s definitely not a bad thing. I’d try to see if you can upgrade Alexei Ramirez.

  13. Hewhohesitates...is LOST. says:
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    16 team league, hth, standard 5 hitting categories:

    Need an OFer with Calhoun & Arcia down, Choo looking like he is going down.

    I picked up Murphy CLe, but on 2nd look here are others on the wavier wire.

    Who is the best option with Murphy & the following:

    Jay Stl, Para Ari, Denforia SD, or Dyson KC.

    I am leaning toward the hot Dyson or Denforia.

    Any help would be greatly appreciated.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Hewhohesitates…is LOST.: I’d go with Dyson if you’re ok with his team benching him against lefties, which it looks like they’re doing. Otherwise, Denorfia looks good.

      • Hewhohesitates...is LOST. says:
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        @Tom Jacks:

        Thanks Tom.

        If Dyson was getting full ABS he is a no brainer, but based on his R-matchup only he will get to play in 4 games this week. Whereas, Denorfia will potentially play in 6 games this week.

        Thanks again.

  14. SMLV1 says:
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    Drop anyone for Melancon?

    Molina
    Goldy
    Dozier
    Wright
    Simmons
    Stanton
    Rios
    Holliday
    Rizzo
    Springer
    Andrus
    Phillips
    Choo

    Santana
    Shields
    Rosenthal
    Papelbon
    Tom Hunter
    Chavez
    Porcello
    Wheeler
    Perez
    Eovaldi
    DL – Fister

    12 team h2h standard league

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @SMLV1: Man, I can’t find somebody I’d be ok with dropping on your team…other than maybe Springer who looks terrible right now

  15. SMLV1 says:
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    Hitter-Tron is telling me to start Dozier vs. A. Sanchez over Phillips vs. D. Hale do you agree?

    Also says Simmons vs. Leake over Andrus vs. F. Hernandez agree?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @SMLV1: Yeah I agree with those calls

  16. Screwed says:
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    Drafted as my RPs: Jim Henderson, Nate Jones, and Frieri….we all know how that went…then traded for Balfour…seriously…after the past two days of Frieri and Balfour giving up 9 total runs and completely screwing my fantasy week…could it get any worse??

    Just needing to vent.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Screwed: That’s rough. It seems like closers as a whole have been even less reliable than they usually are this year.

  17. rpt says:
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    Napoli or Craig rest of season?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @rpt: Napoli

  18. sul says:
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    Bruce or puig in a 10 ten team, h2h league?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @sul: Bruce

  19. Alex says:
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    Pagan or Yelich in OPS?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Alex: Yelich

  20. David Niven says:
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    Just traded Strasburg for Fielder, needed power and have arms to spare. A buddy I trust is not impressed with the deal. Your take sir? OPS league plus normal 5 offensive categories.

    Thanks man.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @David Niven: I like the deal, especially if you have arms to spare. Not really worried about Prince just yet.

      • David Niven says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks kindly for your time Tom. Have a great weekend man.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @David Niven: No problem – you too!

  21. jal179 says:
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    10 team h2h nk Yahoo

    I need OF HR help (thanks to slow starts from Prince and Adam Jones)

    My SPs are as follows:
    Madbum (slow start… not worried)
    Gio
    Teheran
    Sonny
    Archer
    Eovaldi
    Martin Perez
    Ventura
    Porcello
    Tyson Ross

    The team weakest at pitching has potential OF targets of Carlos Gomez, Cuddyer, Tori Hunter.

    My starting OF are:
    Adam jones, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran, Yelich, Matt Joyce.

    What should I offer for OF upgrade? Thinking Ventura for Cuddyer or maybe Madbum + YElich for Cargo?? Is that enough of an offer?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @jal179: I like both of those for you. It’s probably not far off since he needs pitching. I think the first offer has a better chance

  22. fausto says:
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    Blackmon or Marte? All opinions welcome.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @fausto: I’d still prefer Marte

Comments are closed.