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Man, a guy turns in a mediocre season when he’s a twenty-two year old rookie and people abandon him in flocks.  Let’s recap what I said in the first sentence.  In 474 at-bats, Colby Rasmus hit 16 homers and stole 3 bases.  At the age of 22.  Sure, it would’ve been nice if he burst on the scene like David Naughton in Hot Dog… The Movie, but where’s David Naughton now?  Yeah, I have no idea either.  Rookies have ups and downs, that’s what they do.  Do you know what Barry Bonds did his rookie year?  Me neither, but I vaguely remember it not being very good. (Fine, I looked it up.  16 homers, .223 average, but he did contribute 36 steals, finishing sixth to Todd Worrell in the Rookie of the Year balloting.  Nothing gets by the BBWAA.  Interesting how the baseball writers are over closers for ROYs, but virtually ignore them for other accolades.  Ah, for another time, I suppose.)  Yes, the theme of this post is don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.  So if Colby Rasmus is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper, which he is, what can we expect?

Let’s look at his month to month slugging progression.  In April through September, Rasmus slugged .305, .447, .536, .397, .400, .373, respectively.  If you throw out April, he averaged just over 3 homers per month.  He’s capable of 4 easily in 2010.  That would give him 24 homers.  Thank you, come again.  And for all you haters out there, if haters is indeed the right word, he hit 29 homers in Double-A at the age of 20 and he hit 11 homers in 90 games at Triple-A.  So there’s power there.  His steals were Steve Balbonian in 2009.  That has to change.  I mean, has to.  He stole 15 of 18 in Triple-A in 2008 and 18 of 21 in Double-A.  Look at the big brain on Brad.  Yes, he hit 29 homers and stole 18 bases in 128 games of Double-A.  3 steals last year is ludicrous.  Absurd.  And other similar words found in the thesaurus.  He’s capable of 20 steals.  Does he approach that?  Something you don’t hear often from ‘perts, but I don’t know.  He can, that’s what matters.  Sleepers are as much about what they can do as where you can get them.  Right now, Colby Rasmus is being drafted around such perennial schmohawks as Vernon Wells, Juan Rivera and Jack Cust.  His 20/15 potential and his company being kept on draft boards makes Colby Rasmus a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

  1. big o says:
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    Rasmus, one of the team’s swiftest runners, didn’t run much from the No. 2 spot and, in fact, stole just three bases in four attempts. But La Russa debunked the theory that Rasmus didn’t run because Pujols didn’t want anybody moving on the bases while he was hitting.
    “Albert never has said anything about him not running,” La Russa said. “I don’t give the ‘run’ sign to Rasmus a lot because it opens up a base for Albert.”
    ^^^
    (plagiarism)

    maybe he runs more if moved out of the #2 slot ?

  2. big o says:
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    p.s.
    safe trip
    if you’re not home , already .
    (it’s freakin’ freezing , back here) .

  3. tony says:
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    @big o: big O i dont know where you’re at but OHIO isn’t warm either!

    Rasmus will be a nice little sleeper. People forget about these guys because they get so hyped, then have a rough yr and burn them, and then bamm… they mature. Some of us fantasy baseballers begin looking at players and hearing about them when they’re 18-20 years old and so far from their real potential.

    Happy new year guys… its almost January Grey time….

  4. 5150bosox says:
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    I have him in a NL keeper and will look to trade him because of his .250-.260 avg or worse. I don’t like players that hurt you in other categories. La Russa like him in the two spot ahead of Prince, so he won’t be running much either.

  5. Dom says:
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    10 Team Keeper League, Auction, 5 x 5 Roto Scoring, Max of 15 keepers:

    Pujols, Kinsler, Morneau, Ether, Abrea, Werth, Hamilton, Gordon Beckman, Haren, Cliff Lee, Tommy Hanson, Fuentes, Aardsma = 13

    I need two more: Young and cheep = Garret Jones, Rajai Davis, Neftali Feliz, John Danks; Old and Expensive = Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mariano Rivera, Roy Oswalt

    I’m leaning towards Davis for the Steals and Feliz for potential. All the old expensive guys can be had again in the auction if I really wanted them.

    Any other moves that I should make?

    Dom

    P.S. Grey I still owe you a daiquiri, but I still waiting to get paid for winning for winning…funny thing is that I just won in Football and the check is already in the mail

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Home now. About time.

    @tony: Yeah, people forget these types all the time.

    @Dom: I have no idea how cheap they are, but those two sound good. Though I do like Jones too. To an extent, that is.

  7. black love says:
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    reports are that the mets will definetly get JBay. thatll probably drop his value, being in MetCo right?

  8. matthole says:
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    would rather holliday than bay….better than nothing tho

  9. Dom says:
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    Thanks Grey, would you drop Beckhman for Jones? I have all the young guys for basically nothing. Thanks to me following Grey’s advice. Yes, that was me taking credit for your work.

  10. Charlie says:
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    I really think people are going to overestimate the drop in Bay’s value come draft day. There’s this huge misconception that it’s impossible to hit homeruns in CitiField when in reality it has a HR Park Factor OVER 1. I think a lot of people out there are confusing the Mets not hitting homeruns for CitiField being a second Petco. His counting stats will take a slight hit, but he’s still batting between Wright and Beltran with Reyes in front of him as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return value above his ADP.

  11. sean says:
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    @Charlie: I don’t like Bay for other reasons, but I saw a pretty interesting graphic that displayed his 2009 HR chart if he were to hit at Metco. It showed that he would have hit about the same number of homers and actually would have had a chance to hit a few balls out of Metco that he lost to the monster in Boston down the left field line. Obviously Metco is not the place for a left center to right center hitter like Holliday, or even Wright to a certain extent, but it shouldn’t make that much difference for a dead pull hitter like Bay.

  12. matthole says:
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    mets are cursed and the yanks keep on outclassing them in all facets…..bay might return his ADP value but thats only bc he’ll prob fall a rd or 2 for being on the mets

  13. royce! says:
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    @Charlie: I’ve been trying to reconcile the over 1 HR park factor with Wright’s drop in power last year, and I think that it might be that Citi is especially damaging to hitters that routinely pull the ball to left and left center. I think that this could considerably damage Bay’s power. If you compare Wright’s 2009 and 2008 HRs on hittracker, you can see that in 2008 he hit a lot of HRs to left center, with many being hit less than 400 ft. In 2009, however, every left center HR was over 400. Additionally, his average distance for HRs went up around 5-10 feet in 2009, which seems was required by the deeper left center in Citi and the 15′ wall there. Bay’s HRs on hittracker for 2009 show a lot of left/left center HRs, many in the 350 to 400 foot range. I think that many of these would not have left Citi. I still need to do more research, but the image (cribbed from the new york times?) on this blog post seems to confirm my suspicions: http://www.itsaboutthemoney.net/2009-articles/december/good-luck-getting-fa-sluggers-mets.html

    But, people may overestimate the effect on Bay, making him a bargain…so…

  14. 20 team dynasty league

    Batting
    Player H/AB R 2B HR RBI SB AVG OBP

    C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util,

    Adrián Béltre (Sea – 3B) – starting 3B

    Ian Desmond (Was – 2B,SS) starting SS – some flex here

    Matt Kemp (LAD – OF) starting OF

    Cameron Maybin (Fla – OF) – Bench

    Casey McGehee (Mil – 2B,3B) starting 2B soem flex here

    Jhonny Peralta (Cle – 3B,SS) bench – some flex here

    Scott Podsednik (CWS – OF) – bench

    Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF) starting OF

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex – C) starting Catcher

    Shane Victorino (Phi – OF) – starting OF

    Joey Votto (Cin – 1B) starting 1B

    Pitching
    Player IP W SV K HLD ERA WHIP QS

    David Aardsma (Sea – RP)
    Heath Bell (SD – RP)
    Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
    Clay Buchholz (Bos – SP)
    Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP)
    Ubaldo Jiménez (Col – SP)
    Brandon Morrow (Tor – SP,RP)
    Wandy Rodríguez (Hou – SP)
    James Shields (TB – SP)
    Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)

    IS THERE GOING TO BE ANY YOUNG PLAYER COMING UP that I might be able to get some extra power out of – or improve on my catcher spot

    Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP) what do you think of him ?

    Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP) – can he rebound this year

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex – C) starting Catcher – does he have a chance to improve

  15. Jo says:
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    @mr. baseball: as a bias Giants fan, I say Bumgarner is the Shizzzznit. If he wasn’t, we would have never traded Alderson to Pittsburgh

    and I second that question on billingsley, what do ya think grey?

  16. so you are saying that Bumgarner is the bees knees

  17. According to WFAN’s Mike Francesca, the Mets have signed Jason Bay and completion of the deal is only pending a physical.

    He is Miked up Miked up – Miked up – Mike without the mad dog sports radio 66 WFAN

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jo: @mrbaseball: I’m excited about Bills for 2010. Last year was an off year after a huge innings bump in 2008. I think he can definitely bounce back.

    @mrbaseball: Wasn’t excited about Bay going into 2010 as it was, this does nothing for me.

    Search Bumgarner in the Razzball search on the left or bottom of the site. I’ve talked about him before. He’s going to be solid. May only see 160-170 innings of him in ’10.

    Salty may improve, but I’m done waiting for him. In a 20 team league though, that’s a fine enough gamble. Posey, Avila, Santana are coming up, but for ’10, Salty could out produce them since they are very young.

  19. PhillyYorker says:
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    David Naughton was on a great episode of Psych last season in a storyline that revolved around a werewolf. Good stuff.

  20. Jo says:
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    pretty much, the giants have an up and coming big 3 better then atlanta’s 1990′s trio, and Bumgarner is the glavine of the giants staff.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PhillyYorker: Yeah, I actually wrote that line then went to his IMDB page to find out he’s worked a lot. Whatever, I just wanted to say Hot Dog… The Movie.

    @Jo: Nice analogy.

  22. Stephen says:
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    @Jo: With Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner the giants have a geat trio of pitchers. however, Mad-Bum needs to pitch in the majors and provehimself. Granted, he should be great, think Tommy Hanson.

    @mrbaseball: Buster Posey could get you some nice production from the catcher spot if he doesn’t get hyped. JP Arenc (CRAP, CAN’T REEBER HOW TO SPELL HIS NAME, I am using my phone), the Jays young catcher. Power hitter getting called up? Chris “K” Davis. Pedro Alvarez.

  23. Eddy says:
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    UGHHHH i hate that the Mets signed Bay for 4 years!

    Mets: Escobar and Bay
    Nationals:Pudge, Bruney, Bruntlett, Capps
    Braves:Glaus, Kuroda, Melky
    Phillies: Halladay, Polanco

    And my Marlins?????? A measly trade with Lindstrom that gave them 2 minor leaguers we won’t see for 2-3 years and simply an OFFER to Chapman which likely won’t pan out since we’ll eventually get outbid by the Red Sox or Yankees. It really sucks to be a Marlins fan this off-season.

  24. Eddy says:
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    Hey Grey which duo would you prefer and why?:

    Prince Fielder and Brandon Phillips

    OR

    Chase Utley and Joey Votto

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Marlins haven’t spent money ever, shouldn’t be surprising at this point.

    Utley side, cause he’s better than Fielder and Votto’s better than Phillips.

  26. Eddy says:
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    @Grey

    Yea I know, it’s not surprising, but the fact that EVERY N.L East team had some form of major addition really rubbed salt in the wound.

    Having a $36 mil payroll sucks….big ones.

    Here’s to Maybin and Coghlan having breakout years!

  27. big o says:
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    @Eddy:
    rumor is coghlan won’t move to 2nd base unless marlins pick up a corner outfielder …. (once uggla leaves) .
    job will go bonifacio .

    oops .

  28. big o says:
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    @Eddy:
    want coco CRIPS ?
    he’ll play left for you .

  29. I would draft Rasmus with the plan to platoon him (keeping him in my lineup mainly against righties) and I agree with Big o that he won’t run much as long as he bats in front of Poo Poo. However, if he does bat 2nd, beau coup runs, and if he bats 5,6,7th behind Holliday and Pujy RBIs will be nice.

  30. Eddy says:
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    @big o:

    God I don’t even know what to think of Bonnie. Shows up the first day of ’09, gets white hot, then two weeks later the whole world knows he can’t hit high fastballs and HELLLOOOOO .250 average. I’ll take CRIPS over him anyday. And i honestly don’t mind getting rid of Uggla, just as long as we get some decent hitters in the return package, but knowing the Marlins front-office, it’s pitching all day everyday.

  31. big o says:
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    @Eddy:
    fantasy-wise , coughlan would be a huge sleeper at 2nd base .
    especially if he doesn’t get the job until mid-may ,
    and you draft him as a 5th OF-er .

    emilio to the plate ?
    time to go get another beer .

  32. JohnnyBoy says:
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    Hey Grey, here’s a roster for a 10 team mock draft I did recently. Granted, it was 10 teams so I know it was pretty easy to snag several stars, but oh well. **SP are in the order they were drafted(not consecutively though)**

    C-Jorge Posada
    C-Mike Napoli
    1B-Prince Fielder
    2B-Ian Kinsler
    SS-Derek Jeter
    3B-Michael Young
    OF-Justin Upton
    OF-Adam Lind
    OF-Carlos Lee
    OF-Johnny Damon
    OF-Colby Rasmus
    CI-Chipper Jones
    MI-Orlando Hudson
    Util-Chris Coghlan

    SP-Jake Peavy
    SP-Jose Johnson
    SP-Ricky Nolaco
    SP-Carlos Zambrano
    SP-Tim Hudson
    SP-Jonathan Sanchez
    SP-Scott Feldman
    RP-Billy Wagner
    RP-Leo Nunez

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Yup, but their announcers are great.

    @JohnnyBoy: Good mix of upside and veterans. Hudson pick is useless. May as well draft upside at MI. Beckham, Desmond, etc. Not a huge Big Z fan in the SPs and wouldn’t ever draft Feldman, but your team would definitely be competitive. Now try a 12 team league. Insert winking emoticon.

  34. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    haha, yea I gotta love them. I don’t think the games would be the same with the occasional “and his name is Dan Ugglaaaa!!!”. How do you know of them from all the way in LA btw?

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: I have the MLB package so I can watch all the games.

  36. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    ah, I see. Good stuff! Hey quick question, do you draft your official teams as soon as pitchers and catchers report or late march to be cautious with any spring training injuries?

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Try for late March to avoid fluky injuries and to know starting jobs.

  38. Bristol says:
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    In looking at Rasmus, let’s also not forget that he suffered from a number of nagging injuries that could have had an effect on his performance. I know that he had a heel injury as well as a hernia around the end of June. A lot of those nagging little things can have an effect on performance. I will be looking at Rasmus this year as well as someone like Ibanez. In my opinion, both are in the in the same situation and could be primed for huge years in the lineups that they get to bat in!

  39. Shirls says:
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    Need some advice…

    12 team 6 keeper league need to keep one of these guys: Rasmus, G Beckham, McCutcheon, Fowler or BJ Upton.

    I traded for Upton to keep him but he crapped the bed so much that I am considering one of these other guys

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Shirls: Go with Upton.

  41. Shirls says:
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    Thanks man – just found your site but will certainly be back

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