Gerut goes deep again. Cust kayin’.

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Just accepted on Yahoo,

I Get: Reyes & Howard
I Give: Ortiz & Rollins & Burrell

What do you think ???

@BigFatHippo: I like Halladay, Chipper’s risky because of injuries and the Braves being out of the race. In the end, kinda depends on needs.

Thoughts?

I’m in a H2H league where we can change our lineups every day but there’s a limit on the number of transactions we can do in a week when it comes to picking up players (max 5). For the playoffs, would it be worth keeping a guy around like Carlos Guillen who can play 1B/SS/3B just to slot in on days that are light on games so I can save my pickups for pitchers if need be? The Tigers only have 2 off days in September, so he’d probably be available whenever needed. It seems like the more at-bats with quality players you get in a week, the better chance you have to win those counting categories. He’s also not worth starting over Orlando Cabrera unless one of them is on a hot streak or in a funk, right? O. Cabrera gets the nod from me because of the SB potential, but maybe that’s faulty thinking.

@Baron Von Vulturewins: I think something that isn’t mentioned much is how tied Moneyball was to the three-run homer and steroids. The chaotic running game has, appropriately, made a comeback. Look at the successful teams of the last few years, Rays, Marlins, Rockies (less bop, more crazed play), Cards (no one’s actually sure how they’re successful), Cubs (bunch of speed), Sawx (added much speed to their game), Angels (the eptiome of the 80s cocaine-fueled runners). Hmm… Maybe if I return to the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston for my Doctorate, I’ll write my thesis on this.

I drafted Pierre a few years ago thinking “Well, that takes care of steals.” But he was such a drag in every other category (this was the year he stopped hitting, like, .332) I figured it wasn’t worth it.

I do like Grey’s strategy, though, of carrying an absolute burner like Bourne (a Bourner?) and only plugging him in every so often, in hopes of grabbing a steal or two here or there. As long as you can be Zen and accept the nights he steals 3 bases from your bench.

@Grey: Thanks. It has been nice to see steals make a comeback as a strategic weapon. Of all the things that turned me off baseball in the ’90s (‘roids, player strikes, the demise of the Expos, the Jays slow slide into stifling mediocrity) one of the main things was the stat-head-fueled disappearance of steals from the game.

Gimme a Vinny Coleman any year, wreaking havoc and running at every chance he gets. You can talk about “running yourself out of innings” and crunch the numbers all you want, but I still think a chaotic aggressive running game pays dividends b/c of how it messes with the other team’s heads.

Also: Way more fun to watch. And this is, after all, entertainment, not life-saving surgery.*

*why I will always respect Manny’s high-five to the crowd. When a surgeon performing brain surgery high-fives someone in the crowd, I think it’s less appropriate.

Ellsbury has a much smaller history to view so it’s hard to say and hence much riskier. Maybe he can be had for cheaper though. Say just Ubaldo? Just Parra? The problem is Ellsbury just went deep yesterday, so his owner may be more attached.

@mikeisalegend: I agree with you about Ubaldo, but he had a hot streak last year and then fell off in September, I believe (I didn’t look it up. Sorry.).

As for steals, A) they don’t make ‘em like Henderson anymore. B) this is a reason why I don’t draft for steals outside of the first or second round until much later. Steals are the saves of the hitting categories. You don’t have any steals, then you trade for Taveras, slot him in Utility and before you know it you’re in the middle of the pack. Then trade away Taveras before he can do any actual damage on your other categories, because he is a major negative. Since it’s not easy to always trade for steals, sometimes you have to take gambles. For instance, I currently have Bourn on a bench of mine in one league. He’s not starting every day, but when I do see him start, I slot him in for the guy with the weakest matchup.

@Denys: He hasn’t shown me any indication that I want him outside of Dodgers Stadium.

@Baron Von Vulturewins: This is what Rudy and I have talked about before with Carlos Lee. If a guy steals 15-20 bases, he can easily steal that or 5 bases. Don’t expect a 20 steal season every year. I’d put David Wright in there, but not Hanley. Not yet at least. Really well said comment though.

@RotoDish: Tuna can –hehe. And you’re welcome.

EDIT: Typo, boyz!

YO YO from rotodish..thanks again for the link dude

YO YO from rotodish..thanks again for the link dude

But I think as fans we underestimate how hard steals are on your body — which is to say, that a small nagging injury, a sore hammy or whatever, which wouldn’t affect any other part of your game and might not even be reported (just part of the everyday wear ‘n’ tear of a 162 game season), might be enough to convince a player to lay off the steals for a few weeks.

Also, I tend to believe that young five-tool superstars who pile up the steals in their first two or three years will taper off over the years. See David Wright, Hanley this year, and Andruw Jones at the start of his career. This is why I try not to overpay on 5 category guys.

This is just a hunch, but I bet that no major-leaguer really cares if he steals 35 bases or 20 (or 15), and that once your value to an offense has been established, there’s actually less upside to risking a jammed wrist/broken finger/pulled whatever that can come from repeatedly throwing yourself into a base headfirst.

Like I said, just a hunch.

The flipside, I guess, is guy’s like Berkman and Holliday this year who suddenly decide to start running. I have to imagine it all just has to do with how healthy you feel.

Aside from a few pure burners (who have to steal — see Gathright, Joey), and a few creaky fat statues (Big Hurt), pretty much every player in the majors could steal bases if they wanted to, given it’s mostly about reading pitchers and getting good jumps than it is about foot speed.

My strategy is usually to draft four or five guys who could steal 15-25, rather than target one guy who might get 50. (Not exactly revolutionary, I know.) Oddly, after my draft this year I was worried about steals, since I didn’t seem to have one guy who was a lock for 30 — yet with BJ Upton and Rios both running wild, I’ve been fine. Too bad about the homers, though.

You know what I don’t get? How a guy with tons of SBs drops off without any injuries to speak of. See Ichiro, Hanley, Roberts, etc. One thing you’d have going for you is that these two guys plan on a contender… should provide a bit more motivation.
-Ellsbury – 1 steal on July first. 1 steal in July, PERIOD. 2 in August… just last night. Yikes.
-Figgins – 7 steals in July. 0 in August, but he’s a streaky base stealer that could go on a tear.

What do you think of Ellsbury for the rest of the year? I need steals and if he can start to steal like he was in the beginning of the year Id take a shot on him.

(In a keeper league).