Watch closely in the spring.

I’m high on Chris Perez this year. Good team, park and solid rookie numbers. And I will sell my soul for Carlos Marmol if hes the sole closer. Even with the mid-season horrors he finished with sub-1 whip. I must have those Ks.

If one could get him in the 8th or 9th it’s a no-brainer.

@peter: Just nudged Capps up a bit on my board, thanks.

@peter: You’re welcome!

@IowaCubs: Yeah, that’s why you win. Cause you don’t pay for saves. And read Razzball.

@sean: Nice on the ‘graph.

Yeah, I said this yesterday in the Top 20 closers. You cannot project saves properly. (The Royal You.)

@101 M.P.H.: I like all the Donkey-Corns to give you value and the whole thing is, any of them could lead the league in saves as Valverde did last year. That’s why they’re Donkey-Corns. And any Brain Freeze closer could give you value, another reason why closers are fickle. I ranked them in the order I think they will give you value but that could change dramatically.

@Fman99: Me too!

@lincecumshot: Ha! Nice on Alyssa. I think it’s Okajima first but I think you might be right about Howry and I’m updating the post. Thanks!

I’d also say that Howry, being a righty, would be in the mix for saves in SF if Brian Wilson’s off-season throwing regimen with Barry Zito imparts Zito’s distinct patina of suck. Did you hear this? They’re building arm strength by throwing across a 200-foot canyon. Who knew they could get Alyssa Milano to lie down spread eagle for so long? Hi-yo!

I should have added in my fact scenario that my league is a mixed league.

Although you can’t purchase a donkey corn for under $15 in this league, it’s also highly unlikely that any closer would go for more than $28-$30 (a fella took Eric Gagne back in 2005 for $35, and Gagne went on the DL for most of the season). I should also add that 113 saves won the category last season, with 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes of 111, 106 and 100 respectively. I was fortunate enough to win the category, having purchased Francisco Cordero for $17 and Eric Gagne (I just threw up in my mouth) for $10. I was fair to middling until I negotiated mid-season trades for Soria and Valverde, and picked up Ziegler as a free agent.

It occurs to me as I write this that I -did- win the category with $27 invested at auction, and one of my pitchers completely shit the bed.

Cubs, you seem to be advocating a strategy of a $15 closer and an under $10 closer. That was more or less my strategy last season and it worked, Gagne’s struggles notwithstanding. Since it works for you, and it worked for me, then I think this is likely the direction I’ll take.

Thanks again for the advice!

ps- this then begs the question: which of these “brain freeze” closers offers the greatest potential for return on a $10 investment (factoring in base skills, injury risk, and save opportunities)?

All in all, I think avoiding the $12 salad is right on. Although they might be the only “known” commodity, there’s always one (’07 BJ Ryan or ’08 JJ Putz) waiting to ruin your season when they don’t deliver. In other words, it’s a pretty high draft pick to have to make on a commodity that is damn near impossible to project. To me, it’s like drafting an elite TE or DEF in the 4/5 round of a FFL draft; you’re only leading yourself down a path riddled with disappointment…

I’d much rather take a 15th round gamble on Jenks or Kerry Wood and hope that they perform rather than having to grab Rivera in the 7th round or Papelnuts, Nathan’s, or K-Rod even earlier.

In this case, you get three different type of people. 1) The guy who pays $35 for Brad Lidge. He’s an absolute douche bag, and usually the same guy who pays $45 for Carlos Beltran. 2) The guy who pays $15 for a Heath Bell-type, and $9 for Chris Perez. This is usually the guy who wins the league, ergo, me. 3) The guy who punts saves and has to overpay on the wire anyway when bidding happens for FAAB. This is usually the guy who has to trade away WAY too much for saves, and ends up paying too much for Joel Hanrahan anyway.

What am I trying to say? Hmm… maybe it’s just wise not to ever overpay for a Cobb Salad. What if everyone in your league was a saves punter? Or a number 2 type guy, who only buys mediocre closers? In this case, if you can get a bargain on Lidge et al, then do it, otherwise, go for value over substance.

What do the rest of you think?

1) Is there such a thing as a Cobb Salad? In other words, a closer who will be ridiculously expensive but could actually justify the cost (in terms of his contribution not only in saves, but also Ks, ERA and WHIP?)?

I’m in a 14 team auction league with a payroll of $260, and a maximum of 15 free agent acquisitions. You can’t purchase even a semi-respectable donkey-corn in this league for under $15. Given these circumstances, could you rationalize $20+ on a Papelbon/Nathan type as your anchor for saves, and then scrape the bottom of the barrel for a brain freeze? Of course there’s always the free agent pool during the season, but with limited acquisitions we have to be a bit more conservative in our approach.

I like the idea of having a premier closer anchor my pitching staff for saves, but I also pay considerable deference to your advice to avoid this strategy. Your thoughts, sir?

2) Can you think of any red flags that might steer you away from drafting Brad Ziegler this season? Was there anything about his 2008 season that screams “FLUKE!!”, or does his exceptionally low ERA and WHIP appear to be sustainable? I worry about pitchers who have a lower ERA than WHIP. It’s just weird….