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Well, I didn’t expect to write this post.  I thought I was overrating Christian Yelich when I ranked the top 20 outfielders.  Never in my wildest dreams did I expect others to be so much more excited about him.  By the way, my wildest dreams include Giancarlo, marmalade and a goat wearing pants.  In my dream journal, I call that dream, “Ecstasy:  My Bleating Heart.”  A schmohawk is so extreme, and I don’t like doing schmohawk posts for guys that are young, and Yelich is younger looking than Neil Patrick Harris when he played Doogie.  Yelich should be peaking, but, Hayzeus Cristo, Yahoo and ESPN have Yelich ranked crazy-pants-high.  I had a friend who sniffed glue, we called him Elmer, and, after a solid glue-in-nose sesh, he still made more sense than where these people have ranked Yelich.  Anyway, why is Christian Yelich overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

I feel like I need to at least mention what I wrote previously so we’re on the same page, “(Yelich) holds the new modern record for the most home runs with the lowest fly ball rate (since 2000).  You don’t need a pocket protector and solar calculator to figure this out.  If a guy doesn’t hit fly balls, he’s not going to hit home runs.  Pretty straight forward.  Only one player ever (since 2000, but ‘ever’ sounds better, and it was easier for me to research) hit 15 homers with a fly ball rate at 20% or lower — Cap’n Jetes.  Jeter and Yelich actually profile pretty closely.  Lots of ground balls, no fly balls, both like their girls in their teens, only Yelich is a teenager so it’s understandable.”  And that’s me quoting me!  You cannot hit ground balls at the rate Yelich hits them and hit home runs.  I get the sense that everyone knows this.  Steamer has him projected for 16 homers in 143 games.  ZiPS projects him for 15 homers in 638 PAs.  That’s more PAs than James Cameron had on Avatar!  I projected him for 15 homers.  Sure, home runs aren’t everything, but you can not expect to get 21 home runs again, unless he completely changes his approach, and, if he does change his approach, other aspects of his game will change, and maybe not for the better.  Last year, he had nine steals.  Um, okay, cool.  His Speed Score was 3.9, which was the 68th worst in the majors, tied with Nolan Arenado, Justin Turner and Chase Utley.  Speed demons, they are not.  To get those nine steals, he was caught four times.  Does this sound like a guy that’s going to steal 25 bases?  I projected him for 17, and I was likely being too generous.  Steamer and ZiPS have him for 12 and 15.  So, safe 15/15 guy who ESPN and Yahoo have ranked in the top 35 overall.  Hmm, doode better hit .330 to justify that.  And that is where Yelich does bring some real promise.  He’s a .295-.310 hitter, which does seem legitimate like the gripe I have with pickle jars.  Who can open these things?!  While JB is visiting me in LA (and he is visiting until Wednesday), I need him to open all of my jars and get everything down from high shelves to rest them on the kitchen counter.  “I have cereal up there from 2011?”  So, does a 15/15/.300 hitter sound familiar?  It should, I mentioned earlier who his statelganger is, Jeter.  Only Jeter (and I can’t believe I’m talking this much about Jeter either) never approached Yelich’s 20.9% strikeout percentage and Jeter had serious steals when he was younger — 32 SBs and only 3 times caught one year; 24 steals, 5 times caught another.  Yelich gets caught that many times stealing nine bags!  I just can’t figure out where the early third round value is that these other sites are talking about for Yelich.  He’s 20/17/.310 in the absolute best, and most unlikely case scenario!  I mean, c’mon.  Oh, fun fact!  In Jamaica, they pronounce c’mon as ‘see mon.’

 
  1. henncoop says:
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    Good stuff Mr Grey …Thanks for my morning chuckle. Relatively decent night so as usual, it’s the highlight of my night.
    Have not drafted Yelich ever before & won’t be starting now. Thanks for the confirmation.

  2. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Yeah I’ve never understood the fantasy hype with Yelich. He’s also shown no attempt to hit more FBs in the several years he’s been doing this. Some people LOVE him though. Good guy to nominate in auction formats.

    • kingforaday151 says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: It’s because he looks so damn young….that face makes you think he’s going to blow up once he can grow facial hair.

      Give me the same 15/15 from Kepler at a fraction of the cost.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @kingforaday151: Haha for sure!

  3. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Keeper question for ya! 12 team weekly roto league (so quality pitching is important as there are not many stream opportunities except truly bottom of the barrel guys like the bartolos of the world). Keeper lock is in a few days.

    I was offered a $10 JD Martinez and $5 Rich Hill for my $9 Ian Desmond. Hill would go for $19+ at auction due to the weekly format and replace as my final keeper $9 Justin Turner or $10 Dahl (if he gets positive health news before deadline).

    Which side do you like?

    For some context, taking the trade would make my keepers Betts, Rizzo, Story, JDM, Moncada, Darvish, Hill. Justin I expect to be able to snag him at a discount (compared to our Player Rater) if I let him loose because there will be plenty of 3B available to draft. Not sure what Dahl would go for at auction, but it can’t be much more than his current $10 keeper salary assuming he’s still questionable for opening day.

    I of course love me some Ian Desmond, but I’ll admit that I’m a little scared about his splits from last year (1st half .322 avg with a .402 babip and .200+ ISO, 2nd half .237 avg with a .290 babip and .109 ISO). JD is a bit younger and feels a little “safer” and, as you said, could be a top 12 guy next year.

    Thanks!

    Thanks!

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Also relevant!! I forgot to mention that I’m 90% sure I could then flip the $10 JD Mart for a $23 Blackmon, $10 Odor, or $18 Freeman (which I can’t swing with Desmond).

      Thanks.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Packers: @JeF WiTh 1 F: Thanks, Jef. Hopefully you and Grey agree so my brain won’t explode :-) I do like the JD side too . . . particularly if JD finally hits 2nd or 4th (not 5th) in that lineup like I’m hoping he will.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! And will try getting Odor for JD. Would you trade that $10 JD for $18 Freeman or $23 Blackmon, or hold JD due to the sweet price?

        Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I’d take Freeman, Blackmon feels a bit steep

  4. kaztan says:
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    In 2009, Nick Markakis was a .300-hitting moderate speed/power 26 year-old on the rise who was drafted as 3rd/4th rounder. Yelich is 25.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @kaztan: Did you just curse him?

  5. Scott steelers says:
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    Scherzer knuckle shit scare you? Currently keeping Polanco 17th, Springer 12th, Turner 11th, Villar 10th and Scherzer 6th. Was thinking of giving up scherzer to swap 1st rd picks giving me Arenado at pick 1 instead of Nelson cruz or stanton at pick 7. Then I would keep Aaron Sanchez rd 19 in place of scherzer. Thoughts??

    • Scott steelers says:
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      @Scott steelers: also it’s H2H 12 teams 5×5

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @Scott steelers: If moving Max gets you Arenado I’d do it…Sounds like you’re getting Sanchez and Arenado for Max in a round about way…Gotta take that IMO

      • Scott steelers says:
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        @JeF WiTh 1 F: thanks. Made the deal!

  6. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    Fantastic write-up.

    a. Looks to me like you are running out of schmohawk material or am I dreaming? He’s not bad but he’s not great. Still I get the premise, if you draft him like others are you’re not going to get fair value for your draft pick.

    b. Gearing up for International Women’s Day (March 8). We celebrate the date in the camps with the refugees yet women continue to suffer gross violations of their most basic of basic human rights. It’s all part of the hypocrisy of the UN. We try to affect a positive change for women but the reality is that a. we shouldn’t have to, society itself should recognize and correct its behavior in the 21st century and b. things aren’t really changing fast enough when considering the plight of women in poor regions of the world.

    c. On that bright note, the average daily temperature is heating up. Pretty soon we’ll be in the low 100s. We are potentially the highest producing region of solar energy in the WORLD!!! Yet we continue to use fossil fuels for heating/cooling and wood for operating wood-burning stoves. It’s not good, man.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: A. This is last one B. For March 8th, I will be watching the GHostbusters remake and Mrs. Doubtfire double feature — those atrocities against women cannot stand C. Dayum

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Grey: B. Never forget!

  7. Packers says:
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    I agree on Yelich. In a 12 team roto dynasty keep all weekly league I have the following pitching staff.
    Max
    Kluber
    Duffy
    Salazar
    Hendricks
    Norris
    McCullers
    Forty
    Nova
    So I have 3 closers and need 7 SP each week, start 10 pitchers.
    I have Arcia at SS and want to trade for Story. What SP and Arcia would make it a fair trade?

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @Packers: Max or Kluber…It would still be iffy if the Story owner would take that.

      • Packers says:
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        @JeF WiTh 1 F: Thanks, you are saying the Story side is better.

        • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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          @Packers: I like the Story side too. If not for the fluke injury he had last year, he probably would have finished with something resembling 40/20 and be drafted as the #1 SS.

        • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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          @Packers: Yes

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Packers: Story for Max or Kluber & Arcia works

  8. Mike says:
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    This is so solid. Hard to figure out what other perts are thinking. On an unrelated note, given Street’s injury (not Jason Street from Friday Night Lights), where would you be grabbing Cam Bedrosian in a ten teamer?

  9. Count de Monetball says:
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    The ‘big box’ websites always overvalue batting average, always. That alone explains Christian’s schmo-ness. Good stuff Mother Effin’ Genie!

  10. Packers says:
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    FYI. I signed up for the NFBC leagues. I also pre-registered.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Packers: Hopefully we’re in the same league!

      • Packers says:
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        @Grey: well, it would be the student vs. the teacher.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Wax on, wax off!

  11. peacecoast says:
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    Grey,
    My first four SP so far are salazar, cole, mccullers and paxton. I am happy with them but also obviously nervous about injury/risk/innings.

    do you think I need to calm down on the high risk high upside guys and get some stability? which of your lower tiers are more stable?

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @peacecoast: I feel like a Shoemaker/Odorrizi/Eichoff/Kennedy type might be a good fit for a guy who will give you innings and pretty predictable stats.

      • peacecoast says:
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        @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: I like shoe and Eickhoff.

        but damn son I see Rodon and Nola still out there for me. Also Velasquez. I can’t help it.

    • Cram It says:
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      @peacecoast: Hammel, Teheran? Basically any guy who has a history of stability. You can look them up and and see how many IP they usually get through.

  12. Milarky says:
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    Hey Grey, quick question on the “best player available” approach in the early rounds – we start 2 at each IF position. I’ve got Rizzo (1B), JD Martinez (OF), Stanton (OF), Segura (SS) as my keepers. I don’t know where I’ll be drafting yet, and of the hitters that will be available Desmond is far and away the highest ranked based on your rankings. Given that he’s only 1B eligible and I already have Rizzo, would you ignore positions and take Desmond, or look to possibly dip into one of the many 3B or OF that are likely to be there at my pick (i.e. K. Seager, Frazier, Rendon, Turner, Cespedes, Polanco)?

  13. Iron Sheik says:
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    Yo Grey!
    Great article. Would you trade Dansby Swanson and Willson Contraes for Jacob deGrom in a dynasty league. I’m loaded with prospects but need some frontline pitching. It’s a points league H2H so if Swanson is more of the 8-12 hr a year guy I’m not sure he’s going to net something big in the future. The hype is there and I’m wondering if I should deal him…or hold if he’s going to be the next best thing since B Brian Blair and Jumping Jim Brunzel…!

  14. Chicken Shack says:
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    Good stuff coach.
    So you are down with Yelich at the 75 range, but not at the big box sites top 40?
    I have been using your Top 500 in recent NFBC draft and took him in the fifth round.
    He seems stable and can balance out some later power round picks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chicken Shack: I have him ranked around 70, yeah… ESPN had him at 30, that’s absurd

  15. CMUTimmah says:
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    I’ve argued for three seasons that Yelich is so over valued on draft days. In one league, he was a keeper (one of 6) and was also kept in 2014 and 2015. He was great last year. Actually, shockingly great, but is the 14 HR power jump for real?

    Now in REAL baseball terms, he’s a guy I want on my roster. Gives a lot of good ABs, plays well defensively, seems to be a guy enjoying himself and liked by teammates. He’s a glue guy that does what he can to help the squad, even if he has that left eyebrow that is always raised up in photographs like some sort of marketing ploy.

    But in fantasy, he’s basically just a little better than Nick Markakis in his prime. 20/10 is nice when it’s paired with great perif’s, but do you ever see this guy hitting more than 25 HRs?

    Well, here’s an interesting note about his HR potential. 19 HRs against righties, 2 against lefties. It wasn’t just last year, the two years previous he only hit a single HR each year off lefties. This guy changes his total approach during 35-40% of his ABs (about the normal amount of ABs a player hits against a lefty). I can’t see a guy punting 40% of his chances for HRs and actually hitting 25+ HRs.

    Now, do I appreciate a baseball player making himself effective in the batter’s box against lefties, yes. Do I think that makes him a guy I want as a OF 2? nope. OF 3 all day, but draft price will never allow that. Give me George Springer or Gregory Polanco over top of this guy all day everyday. At least I know I can count on them for some steals to go along with the power numbers and will be hitting in better offenses.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup, agreed and agreed… Crazy to see Springer after Yelich

      • CMUTimmah says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, not sure what’s not to love about Springer. I know the .260 avg area isn’t great, but when you couple it with a near .360 OBP, that’s a damn useful player stacking up with impact power potential. The only turn off with me is, even with the talk of Springer stealing more, that 9 steals / 10 caught stealing. That’s not exactly a warm and fuzzy connection. But when you have a guy like Altuve hitting behind you, the idea of hit and run sounds a lot better than steal. IF Springer steals 25 basaes this year, we’re talking about a top 25 guy.

        I don’t see Yelich having that kind of upside considering that power vs lefties.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Agreed, Springer will out homer by a lot, same on steals, same on RBIs and should out produce him in runs

        • What's A Drexl? says:
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          @CMUTimmah: and springer used to steal near 40 on i think both sides of it in the minors, he’s not old yet.

  16. Jon says:
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    Carlos Rodon and Puig for Addison Russell?

    10 team keeper league, keep 21

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s fair, Russell

      • Jon says:
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        @Grey:

        Done, took the deal as I had no use for Puig.

        I have a roster spot which SP do I grab. SP stats W HR K ERA WHIP K/9 QS

        McHugh
        Nova
        Musgrove
        ervin Santana
        Zach Davies
        Severino
        Tyson Ross
        Hellickson
        Berrios
        eduardo rodrigues
        Iwakuma
        Bauer
        Montgomery
        Hammel
        Wacha
        Leake

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nova

  17. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    I’m ready for this NFBC. Gave Rudy my info on Friday but that might just end up leading to strange charges on my credit card.

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Yeah she did. Was a good game too. Pens cleared the puck on a PK in the 3rd and she cheered on her own…was like, yep, got her!

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Hahahahaha! Nice, you playing RCL’s? I’m looking to put another one together with some of the regs. Let me know if you’re in.

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: I’m in fo sho!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I actually just used your credit card to buy Cougs a Sandals resort weekend, thanks!

  18. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Just bumping from above . . . would you trade that $10 JD Mart keeper for a $23 Blackmon or $18 Freeman, or hold JD?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Freeman

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! Accepting now + getting my Odor and Freeman offers out . . .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nice!

  19. HH says:
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    12 AL only keeper league. Healy $10 2 yrs, Victor Martinez $20, Sam Travis $1 3+ yrs and Renato Nunez $1 3+ yrs for Yu Darvish $9 @ 1 yr.

    Which side would you rather have?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yu

  20. hothot says:
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    Had to autodraft several rounds to deal with a plumbing emergency and now I’m light on Speed, Runs & Avg and a touch heavy on Pitching & Upside/Risk. I foresee heavy amounts of bat streaming.

    A) Should I try to trade hot arms for bats from Preseason – June?
    or
    B) Keep Arms and just focus on streaming OF/UTIL/CI/MI?

    12-Team 5×5

    C- Tom Murphy, Col
    1B Goldschmidt, Ari
    2B Odor, Tex
    SS A. Russell, ChC
    3B Rendon, Wsh
    CI Moreland, Bos 1B
    MI Semien, Oak SS
    OF Springer, Hou
    OF Kepler, Min
    OF Grichuk, StL
    OF Pence, SF
    OF Bruce, NYM
    UT Devon Travis, Tor 2B
    ———————————-
    SPs: Arrieta, Strasburg, Hill, Lackey, Snell, Taijuan Walker, Hellickson
    RPs: Jansen, Melancon, Kintzler, Romo, Koda Glover

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hope not too much of your waste overflowed…. A. I’d trade Arrieta for a top hitter now B. See A

      • hothot says:
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        @Grey:
        Thanks. Hopefully there’s a guy with 5 Cubs on his roster to make this easier.

        Hah, no waste thank god, but water leaking from upstairs tub through a light fixture on the 1st floor was a fun new experience. First several drops landed directly on my hands & laptop as I was adding Rendon to my queue. Hope I didn’t jinx him.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, damn you!

  21. Teddy Heater says:
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    BFF, Long time! All my fault, but to say the least, it’s interesting few months. I’ve awoken from my hibernation and I’m ready to soak up all the fantasy info for this season. I’m like a sponge Bro!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Where the hell you been?!

      • Teddy Heater says:
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        @Grey: Kelly and I are separated/Divorcing on great terms though. Mugsie our white Frenchie passed away right after Xmas, so it’s been an adjustment to say the least. I kept the house, Odie & Trixie and have been just been trying to dial everything in as a single dad. HA!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Really sorry to hear that, she was sweet, but shizz happens…. If anything I can do, let me know… Like give you Cougs — take her off my hands, please!

          • Teddy Heater says:
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            @Grey: HAHA! We were just really good friends in the end, people grow apart, but we’re still super cool. I landed a gem, so you’ll have to hold on to Cougs. Baltimore native who loves the O’s, Ravens and all things sports. Smokin hot, loves fantasy sports, funny as heck and has a great career. She’s a 5 tool player fo sho, 30 years old, for some reason she adores me and laughs at all my jokes! We’re doing the cross country thing until the end of summer when her work contract finishes.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Wow, that’s awesome! Good for you! You quit your job or just taking some time off?

              • Teddy Heater says:
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                @Grey: I’m back in the office, so that’s been one of the bigger adjustments. I definitely miss working from home and so does my wallet having to pay a dog walker $400 a month, but again that’s temporary until Laura gets her ass here. She knows her shizz, so I may even have her do a guest spot for me here and there on the DFS articles. Might draw in a bigger audience with a hot chick?!? Jimbo just become a Grandfather again on Saturday to a baby boy, Hudson Patrick Davis. He’s stoked to say the least! What about how’s Teddy, Cougs?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  That’s awesome, give Jimbo my best! So when are you doing the cross country thing? Are you leaving your job then? How’d you meet Laura? So many questions! Ted and Cougs are both good… We took JB for sushi last night, well, actually he paid… He’s in town until Wednesday…. If you wanna meet us tonight we’re going to Beer Belly in Koreatown, on Western

                  • Teddy Heater says:
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                    @Grey: I’ve flown out there once and she’s flown out 3 times. I’m not leaving Cali, she’ll be coming here, fo sho!. She’ll be back on the 23rd of this month for 5 days. She loves coming out here, but I promised to go back out in May to see the O’s at Camden Yards. I know we can’t harass Manny like we did last year, but I’ve never been to CY. What time are you going to Beer Belly, I might hop on my bike an zip out there.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Planning on being out there between 7:30/8

                      Where’d you meet her? Online?

                    • Teddy Heater says:
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                      @Teddy Heater: I actually knew her before Kelly and I got married. We were just friends cause she was just a Pup still in college. When Kelly and I got married we lost touch. I hit her up a month after we split and she invited me out to Baltimore. It’s been fireworks and sports since. I think I might just join you for a couple beers to say hi. Catch you up on the news.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      That would be awesome! Looking forward to it… Maybe we can get JFOH too

                    • Teddy Heater says:
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                      @Teddy Heater: He needs like a week advance to commute to LA

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      True

  22. dubjay says:
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    Hey Grey,
    Wanted to get your input on my team in a 12 team H2H 5X5 keeper league(we keep 10)
    C-Y.GRANDAL
    1B-T.FRAZIER
    2B-B.DOZIER
    3B-N.ARENADO
    SS-C.SEAGER
    OF-AJ POLLOCK, N.MAZARA, B.BUXTON
    UTIL-A.PUJOLS, K.BROXTON
    BENCH-M.OZUNA, E.THAMES
    N/A-A.MEADOWS

    SP-M.BUMGARNER, G.COLE, D.DUFFY, L.MCCULLERS, S.MANAEA, D.SMYLY, B.SNELL
    RP-A.CHAPMAN, K.GILES

    I know that I am a little upsidey both in the OF and with SP. But damn there is a lot of sexiness there.

    • dubjay says:
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      @dubjay:
      No feedback? What if I threw in a Daiquiri?

  23. Brian says:
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    16 team h2h dynasty 6×6 league uses k/bb and QS. My SP is really thin (sale, harvey, duffy, smyly, guerra, happ, wainwright, tillman, fiers, with cotton, jeff hoffman, and brock stewart having shots to make starts. Right now my highest draft pick in our minor league draft is #46. Someone offered my #27 for guerra. Is it worth depleting my depth further to move up 20 spots in the minor league draft? It’s basically the difference between a back of the top 100 prospect and a dart throw on a prospect years away. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah, hold

  24. Sock it to me says:
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    I’ve been debating over this for a little while for my draft coming up in a few weeks. 12 team H2H, get four keepers….I was thinking this….

    Justin Verlander (lose the 9th round) – pretty much a given
    Jonathan Lucroy (lose the 3rd round) – probably a given considering the lack of good C’s
    Alex Bregman (lose the 10th round) – may be risky, but extremely rewarding if he delivers despite the late draft pick.

    Because of trade picks, I will not have a 4th, 8th, or 13th round, but acquired later round picks that wont matter now with keepers. I have the options of having the last keeper the following:

    Odor (lose my 2nd round) OR
    Hendricks (lose my 12th round)

    Both have pros and cons (Odor great 2nd basemen but lose an early round), Hendricks (coming off a great last season and I can draft late having 2 solid SPs going into this year with Verlander). Which one would you choose? Would you even consider keeping Bregman for a 10th round pick with the hopes of picking him up somewhere? With Bregman kept, I have my 3rd basemen, 2nd basemen, and catcher solidified before the draft even starts, and a very good SP in Verlander. The first round pick could be a hot 1B or even another quality SP like a Kershaw for example (most likely 1st basemen). Most of the other teams in the league dont seem to be keeping their SPs and focusing on hitters (which is smart).

    Sorry for the loaded question, but I read all of your articles and love your advice/articles so anything is greatly appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Just go Odor

      • Sock it to me says:
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        @Grey:

        Thanks Grey!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem!

  25. Christian Herman says:
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    You have Obdubel Herrera to hit 83 RBIs which is the most I’ve seen by around 20+. Why the optimism?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s hitting third, if he only gets 83 RBIs it’ll be the lowest of any number three hitter in the majors

  26. David Niven says:
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    Grey sir reading your posts are better than a 4th inning beer. Thanks for the continuous solid work.

    Keeper question if you may.

    6×6, 2 catcher league that uses holds and OPS, 12 team, get to keep a value of 125 bucks each year.

    While keeping this already:

    Jose Altuve, Hou 2B – 28
    Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B – 28
    Mike Trout, LAA OF – 38
    Wade Davis, ChC RP – 12
    Aledmys Diaz, StL SS – 4
    Jose Quintana, CWS SP – 7

    Should I then keep this:
    A.
    Joc Pederson, LAD OF – 3
    Evan Gattis, Hou C – 1
    Tom Murphy, Col C – 1
    David Phelps, Mia RP, SP – 1
    Raisel Iglesias, Cin RP, SP – 2

    or:
    B
    Jose Ramirez, Cle 3B, OF – 8

    Thanks bro!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A

      • David Niven says:
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        @<a href="#comment-2642@Grey:

        Yer a tribute to yer gender.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, thanks!

  27. Jon says:
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    Hey Grey, I am in a 10 team keeper league, keep 21

    stats R 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB AVG/ W SV HR K ERA WHIP K/9 QS

    starting lineup:

    C- Ramos ( will pickup Gattis once he goes on DL)
    1B- Votto
    2B- Dozier
    SS- Seager
    3B- Seager
    OF- Betts, Springer, Polanco
    2 Util- Abreu and Addison Russel
    Bench- Lamb, Peraza, Morales, Benintendi

    SP- Madbum, Carrasco, Cole, Quintana, Maeda, Nova, Ray, De Leon
    RP- Jansen, Diaz, Cody Allen

    Thoughts on the roster? Anyone I should Trade? maybe deal a bat for a SP? any suggestions?

    thanks for all your hard work as always.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Love the pitching, should be a top three pitching team… Hitting isn’t bad either, kinda love the team….

      • Jon says:
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        @Grey:

        I did get offered Rick Porcello for Morales

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Bleh

          • Jon says:
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            @Grey:

            yeah im iffy on Porcello. guess ill keep morales for the power

    • Jon says:
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      @Jon:

      I did get offered Rick Porcello for Morales

  28. henncoop says:
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    So I am joining a keeper league as an expansion team. Every team kept 5 players in the round they were drafted losing 2 rounds each year.As a new expansion team I am allowed to pick ONE player to be my 10 round pick this year as my keeper. I have the 2nd pick of the expansion teams. Team 1 took Altuve.
    I could pick Kershaw which seems counter-productive to usual Razzball thinking but he would count as a 8th rounder next year etc.
    Best bats available are Springer, JD Mart, Dozier, Rendon, Buxton, Mazara, Binitendi, JBJ & Polanco. I assume Springer is the best of the bats considering the young upside guys may take some time to develop etc.
    Despite preferring bats Kershaw looks awful good as 10th rounder this year & 8th next year.
    Please weigh in on this …mucho thanks

    • henncoop says:
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      @henncoop: BTW this is not a $$ league but I still want to do well of course

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Take Springer

      • henncoop says:
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        @Grey: I left Marte out …Springer or Marte?? Sorry for the goof.
        Guess my only problem with Springer is he doesn’t seem to be the SB guy we thought he was …obviously the guy will do plenty in that lineup & I expect the power to grow.
        Of course the obvious issue with Kershaw would be health …already missed time …it could be some lingering issue.
        So does adding Marte to the mix change your mind ?? Or is Springer the guy based on youth?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Marte

  29. dubjay says:
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    Let me try again…
    Hey Grey,
    Wanted to get your input on my team in a 12 team H2H 5X5 keeper league(we keep 10)
    C-Y.GRANDAL
    1B-T.FRAZIER
    2B-B.DOZIER
    3B-N.ARENADO
    SS-C.SEAGER
    OF-AJ POLLOCK, N.MAZARA, B.BUXTON
    UTIL-A.PUJOLS, K.BROXTON
    BENCH-M.OZUNA, E.THAMES
    N/A-A.MEADOWS

    SP-M.BUMGARNER, G.COLE, D.DUFFY, L.MCCULLERS, S.MANAEA, D.SMYLY, B.SNELL
    RP-A.CHAPMAN, K.GILES

    I know that I am a little upsidey both in the OF and with SP. But damn there is a lot of sexiness there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like the hitting, but you’re low on AVG, which isn’t awful for H2H and your pitching is much better than it needs to be… I’d prefer a better hitting team and slightly less on pitching

      • dubjay says:
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        @Grey:
        Yeah I figured that I would struggle with average having Dozier, Frazier and Buxton as keepers. I find that you can never have too much good pitching in a H2H league. I think that my WHIP may take a beating but strikeouts won’t be an issue. Id like to grab one more pitcher to round out my staff. Who do you like out of Z.Davies, T.Glasnow, S.Miller, A.Cobb, J.Hellickson?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Hellickson

  30. Alex says:
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    Happy 2017 Fantasy Season Grey! For my first post I’ll just say I am about to draft my team in a one keeper head to head league with Bryant as my keeper…

    I have Machado and Rizzo staring me down and I really just can’t decide. Can you decide for me?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hey man! Machado

      • Alex says:
        (link)

        @Grey: That was my thinking as well. I feel like he could be in for a monster season.

        Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem!

  31. Pipa says:
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    Would you trade Roark for Benitendi? He’s my Sp#4.

    My OF consists of Cruz, Desmon, and Ozuna, with Morales as an option as well.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes

  32. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Hey Again, Grey!

    Now that I’m looking at my set of 7 keepers as Betts ($28), Rizzo ($33), Story ($11), JD Mart ($10), Moncada ($3), Darvish ($18), and Rich Hill ($5) . . .

    Would you keep Justin Turner ($9) or Hanley Ramirez ($12) over any of those guys? I’m leaning towards holding with my current guys, for the reasons discussed (in short, weekly league so SP prices are inflated a bunch in the draft), but would love to hear your thoughts.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Can hold, though if your league’s not deep Moncada might be useless

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: thanks – it’s 12 team with 28 man rosters.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s not that big — that’s what she said — when she hurt my feelings…

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Grey: Hah!

  33. Nate says:
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    Hi Grey,

    Im in a 12 team keeper league, Auction, 28 players per team. We have $280 draft dollars. The players we keep$ value rises by 20% each year. (if a player is $10 next year you can keep them for $12)
    Here my final players i’m considering with their $ value
    Tommy Joseph $5
    DJ LeMahieu $23
    Devon Travis $11
    Matt Kemp $25
    Kevin Kiermaier $5
    Kenta Maeda $19
    Sam Dyson $5

    So far I’m keeping 5 position players, 1 closer and one SP. Need to pick one more player from that list. Any of these players look like a good value? (closers tend to go for a lot in our league) Any help greatly appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Meh, none are amazing value… go Dyson since it sounds like you’re leaning that way

      • Nate says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey!

  34. KCC26 says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey!

    Without providing a ton of context (12 team mixed H2H) would you rather have:

    Bryant as a 5th round keeper
    Or
    Story in the 9th plus a mid round draft pick?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bryant

  35. ferris says:
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    Grey,

    Now that David Price has gotten the so-called best news possible on his “bionic” elbow, are you sticking with your threat to drop him out of your Top 100? If not, where are you going to place him?

  36. Daze says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey
    In a 12 team mixed league
    Would you keep Ryan Healy or Tommy Joseph.
    They would each cost $6 to keep.
    I could keep both also
    I figure they are similar players. Healy probably gives a better avearage
    Your thoughts?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d keep Joseph

  37. SDB says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey

    You mentioned above that you have Yellich around 70.
    Where would you have him in an OBP league?

    Thanks!

  38. Dongo says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, which team would you rather build around in a h2h points with ottoneau scoring?
    Team 1:
    Buster Posey
    Jose Altuve
    Todd Fraizer
    Fransisco Lindor
    Billy Hamilton
    Kyle Hendricks
    Mashihiro Tanaka

    Team 2:
    Jonathan Lucroy
    Freddie Freeman
    Daniel Murphy
    Javier Baez
    Ryan Braun
    Yoenis Cespedes
    Chris Archer
    Danny Duffy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Team 1

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pretty close though

      • Dongo says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks! I initially thought team 1 was way ahead, but it’s definitely closer the more I think about it.

  39. Pipa says:
    (link)

    Which 2 do you prefer?

    Gsellman
    Moore
    D Norris
    Bundy
    Bauer
    Bradley
    Folty

  40. mikestatic says:
    (link)

    Funny stuff. I followed your articles last season and I finished 3rd in a weekly 12 team keeper 5×5 scoring (keep 6 forever) where I inherited a real mess. Thanks for the help! Need advice on who to keep this year.
    Hitting:
    Encarnacion, Trea Turner, Harper, Duvall, Dahl, Buxton. Aledmys Diaz
    Pitchers:
    Kluber, Cueto, Hendricks, Aaron Sanchez, Duffy, Carrasco

    Locks for me are Harper and Trea Turner, but honestly the other 4 up in the air. What do you think? Thanks!

    • The great knoche says:
      (link)

      @mikestatic: Turner, Harper, Dahl, Buxton, Kluber, Carrasco.

      • mikestatic says:
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        @The great knoche:

        Buxton scared me slightly, but maybe he did show his true colors at the end of last season? Dahl is starting the season on the DL otherwise i like him alot. Thanks for the reply.

  41. Thirsty Friend says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey…great work as usual. I was offered Sale and Story for Arenado in a Dynasty League. I’m tempted. What say you?

    Thanks in advance!

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