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No, not that Chris Carter.  This Chris Carter looks like Ryan Howard.  In every possible way.  He strikes out a lot.  He hits a lot of homers.  He talks to Turtle about tequila.  He weighs 230+ el-bees.  He stands six foot five.  He once finished off a grand slam 7 hours after the last pitch of a game thanks to Denny’s.  You know that bar game Picture Perfect where you try and pick out the differences between two pictures that look nearly identical?  You could have Ryan Howard on one side and Carter on the other side and stump the soberest of men.  In 2010, Carter hit 31 homers in Triple-A and batted .258.  Then in a short stint in the majors, Carter had only 13 hits in 70 ABs for a .186 average, but three of those hits were homers.  Sure, Carter farted up those numbers, but, to clear the air, it was a small sample size and he did something similar in his first taste of Triple-A and straightened that out in time.  So what can we expect of Chris Carter in 2011 fantasy baseball?

Homers and a terrible average.  Any guy who only hits .258 in Triple-A is not someone that will compete for a batting title.  To follow the previous comparison, Ryan Howard hit .299 in 1855 ABs in the minor leagues.  (BTW, Ryan Howard probably missed at least two productive years being in the minors and might already be approaching 400 homers.  Not that 400 homers means anything anymore.)  So, yo, yo, yo what’s the best case scenario for Chris Carter in 2011?  Carlos Pena.  Carter could get lucky and hit .240-.250 next year, but I think it’ll be closer to .220.  His plate discipline isn’t bad once he gets comfortable at a new level, but his Ks are wild, man, wild.  30 homers wouldn’t be out of the question though if he gets a full season of ABs and, if I had my druthers, and knew what druthers were, I’d give him the job out of Spring Training.  More likely, Carter comes up around June 1st once the A’s settle into their familiar spot of “We’re in third place and aren’t sure if we’re in the pennant race or not, but really we’re not.”  In 400 ABs, Carter’s line would be 35/22/55/.225/3.  In keepers, he’s worth drafting very late if you have room to wait for him.  In mixed, redraft leagues, he’s passable unless your league requires you field at least one Ryan Howard-lookalike.

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  1. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Picture Perfect? I always see it called Photo Hunt….and preferably Erotic Photo Hunt.

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Buddo Chezuski: Erotic one is fun. Wait, does she have a third nipple or is that a difference?

  3. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    LOL exactly

    anyway I’m pretty MEH on Carter. Feel like there are many other youngsters to take later on over him.

  4. Rabbit says:
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    From the Online Etymology Dictionary’s entry on druthers: “1895, from jocular formation based on I’d ruther, Amer.Eng. dialectal form of I’d rather (used by Bret Harte as drathers, 1875).”

    Bret Harte, by the way, had a short stint in the majors with the Chicago Redstockingsbeerpackers in the 1880s, where he put up a very respectable .905 OPS, but he was let go because no one knew what “OPS” was.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Buddo Chezuski: Yeah, I’m pretty meh on him too. Has upside, but needs ABs and less Ks.

    @Rabbit: That’s the original Bret Hitman Harte.

  6. Steve says:
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    His nickname is Clarence cos he can stroke it.

    The above is subject to verification.

  7. Swagger Jackers says:
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    @Grey: How does he compare to Smoak, Ike Davis and Moreland when considering him at the end of a draft?

  8. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I hope you provide the accompanying actions.

  9. Steve says:
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    DBacks sign Micah Owings. Big whoop I hear you say.

    Not so fast. They plan to use him at 1st as well as on the mound…

  10. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @Grey:
    re: powerless moobs glossary term from earlier

    “Corked Fats” or rather “Uncorked Fats”
    “Power Puffs”
    “Gas Bags”
    “Moob Reductions”
    “Oleaners”, from the fat substitute Olean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olestra, especially given “unpleasant side affects” such as anal leakage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olestra#Side_effects
    Thanks for using Columbus as a test market for that one, P & G

  11. Mike from Jersey says:
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    fat guys with no pop= Biggie Smalls

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That pic makes it seems like he just wants some quiet so he can masturbate.

    @thegeniusking: Shame they replaced it.

    @Jake in Columbus: Like Biggie or Fatboy better… Power puffs playing power puff baseball isn’t bad.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mike from Jersey: Yeah, that was mentioned in the last post. Between that and Fatboy Slim.

  14. Joe B says:
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    First useless mock draft of the new year… any picks you love/hate? I know it’s early but I’m restless. Not sure if I like Tabata or Jones as an OF4… Kendrick or Escobar as MI… Tabata plus Escobar = more steals, but I do like Pacman for a breakout year (25 HR/25 SB please?)

    R1 P3 1B Miguel Cabrera
    R2 P8 3B Ryan Zimmerman
    R3 P3 OF1 Carl Crawford
    R4 P8 C Brian McCann
    R5 P3 SP1 Cliff Lee
    R6 P8 SP2 Clayton Kershaw
    R7 P3 RP1 Heath Bell
    R8 P8 SS Elvis Andrus
    R9 P3 OF2 Jay Bruce
    R10 P8 UT Adam Lind
    R11 P3 SP3 Max Scherzer
    R12 P8 OF3 Hunter Pence
    R13 P3 2B Aaron Hill
    R14 P8 OF4 Jose Tabata
    R15 P3 RP2 Jose Valverde
    R16 P8 CI Mark Reynolds
    R17 P3 SP4 Ricky Nolasco
    R18 P8 OF5 Adam Jones
    R19 P3 RP3 Jonathan Broxton
    R20 P8 SP5 Kevin Slowey
    R21 P3 MI Howie Kendrick
    R22 P8 1B Justin Smoak
    R23 P3 SS Alcides Escobar

  15. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Biggie Smalls and Fatboy Slim are pretty good. Anyone suggest Heavyweight Pretender yet?

  16. k roc says:
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    22 homers in that park?

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Really trying to get into the glossary huh? I’m waiting on Rudy to okay one.

    @Joe B: You don’t need to number one starters. But I also don’t think you had much competition in this mock, or it’s a ten teamer.

    @Black Beard: Not better than the other two.

    @k roc: Think he could hit 22 homers in Petco. He’s a big boy.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Joe B: Meant to say, “You don’t need TWO number ones.” Not to.

  19. BKK says:
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    @Grey: Not that I plan on drafting him, but is Johnny Damon not even going to make the top 80?

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BKK: He’ll be there.

    @Steve: Of course! My bad.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Weird that CBS was only represented once. Usually it’s ten CBS people and 2 randoms. Maybe they smartened up.

  22. GopherDay says:
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    @Steve: Braun #2 overall…Hmmm…

  23. BKK says:
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    @Grey: Its annoying that the little @thingy doesn’t work on my blackberry. That’s an indictment against RIM, not you.

    Anyhow, I read your post wrong, I thought it said” upside to the end of the Top 80″ not just “until the Top 80.” Gotta quit reading words that aren’t there.

    Hence, the question about Damon as his upside is now on the downside of his career.

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BKK: Beginning of the top 80 is same tier, but Damon’s not in it. It’s annoying that the arrow doesn’t work on my iPhone either.

  25. Steve says:
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    @BKK: What kind of BlackBerry do you have? Works on mine.

  26. Steve says:
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    @GopherDay: It’s the OOFA plan. One Out Fielder Already.

  27. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Howard went at #39 so maybe there are some CBS guys in there under assumed names.

  28. GopherDay says:
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    @Steve: That’s pretty redonkulous. Why am I reading a CBS mock?

  29. Steve says:
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    @GopherDay: Couple of veteran ‘perts in there (that I recognise anyway) – interesting to see what they do.

  30. LMack says:
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    @Steve:

    For the record, I second Fatboy Slim.

  31. LMack says:
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    Doh but after submitting that comment I like Biggie Smalls
    D:

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I could see how my Fielder ranking might be construed as slightly mad, but Howard at 39 makes no sense to me. If he were around that late, I’d draft him even if I had a 1st baseman already.

  33. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    @Grey:

    Yeah I don’t get it Grey. I see Howard or Fielder falling into the 3rd round with some frequency. I’m all over that. I had Miggy in a 12-team mock the other day…my 3rd pick came up and Fielder was still there so I couldn’t let him go.

    Here’s the team:

    C Michael Napoli ANA R9 P4 Comment
    1B Miguel Cabrera DET R1 P4 Comment
    1B Prince Fielder MIL R3 P4 Comment
    2B Ian Kinsler TEX R4 P9 Comment
    2B Gordon Beckham CHW R18 P9 Comment
    SS Stephen Drew ARI R10 P9 Comment
    SS Alcides Escobar KC R23 P4 Comment
    3B Ryan Zimmerman WAS R2 P9 Comment
    OF Andrew McCutchen PIT R5 P4 Comment
    OF Nick Markakis BAL R8 P9 Comment
    OF Adam Jones BAL R13 P4 Comment
    OF Brett Gardner NYY R14 P9 Comment
    OF Carlos Quentin CHW R15 P4 Comment
    DH Luke Scott BAL R22 P9 Comment
    SP Cole Hamels PHI R6 P9 Comment
    SP Francisco Liriano MIN R7 P4 Comment
    SP John Lackey BOS R11 P4 Comment
    SP Johnny Cueto CIN R16 P9 Comment
    SP Brian Matusz BAL R19 P4 Comment
    SP Edinson Volquez CIN R21 P4 Comment
    RP Andrew Bailey OAK R12 P9 Comment
    RP David Aardsma SEA R17 P4 Comment
    RP Octavio Dotel TOR R20 P9 Comment

    I think I did pretty good.

  34. Brett says:
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    Chris Cater Career minor league numbers: .284 .380 .540 .920

    Ryan Howards career minor league numbers: .299 .387 .549 .936

    Ok. In your article you claim that Carter isn’t in Howards league. Sure he might not be quite the same player but I don’t think you can say with any credability that they aren’t VERY similar players. I’d take him way ahead of Moreland.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @RandomItalicizedVoice: Yeah, look how stacked your team is with Fielder and Miggy. If you walk away with one overachieving hitter anywhere else on your team, you could trade them for pitching. Or just grab a good pitcher off waivers and you’d have Miggy, Fielder and Zimmerman. That’s insane. Then throw in McCutchen and Kinsler… Crazy.

    @Brett: Factoring a lot of ball prior to Triple-A to get to .284, which means he will one day figure out the major leagues. Don’t think it happens in 2011. I do say grab him in keepers.

  36. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Well, if you look at Carter’s minor league numbers, whenever he advances to another level he went cold for a little while, then got comfortable and started mashing. Same thing happened last season when he got called up. He went like 38 ABs without a hit, but one he got past that he hit pretty well. A big concern I have with Carter is playing time. Oakland seems to love old, under performing veterans and Carter might not squeeze in enough playing time to warrant a place on most teams.

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Yeah, just not sure he’s out of the weeds yet as far as adjusting.

  38. BKK says:
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    @Steve: I have a curve using Opera.

  39. Nate says:
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    Grey, here’s the mock I ended up with in a 10-team draft. What do you think?

    C: Mike Napoli (R13 P7)
    1B: Joey Votto (R1 P7)
    2B: Kelly Johnson (R14 P4)
    3B: Kevin Youkilis (R3 P7)
    SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (R15 P7)
    OF: Carl Crawford (R2 P4)
    OF: Justin Upton (R4 P4)
    OF: Andrew McCutchen (R5 P7)
    UTIL: Colby Rasmus (R10 P4)

    P: Yovani Gallardo (R6 P4)
    P: Mat Latos (R8 P4)
    P: Mariano Rivera (R7 P7)
    P: Max Scherzer (R11 P7)
    P: Brandon Morrow (R14 P4)
    P: Francisco Cordero (R17 P7)
    P: Phil Hughes (R16 P4)
    P: Javier Vazquez (R18 P4)
    P: Jaime Garcia (R20 P4)

    Bench:

    James McDonald (R25 P7)
    Pedro Alvarez (R9 P7)
    Ryan Raburn (R21 P7)
    Travis Snider (R23 P7)
    Luke Scott (R24 P4)
    Juan Uribe (R22 P4)
    Dexter Fowler (R19 P7)

  40. Elijah says:
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    Dbacks accumulating an impressive array of mediocre pitching!

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