Fantasy Baseball Advice

People over at the Brew Crew Ball quote Fox Sports’ on Ryan Braun moving to the outfield with the addition of Mike Cameron. The Brewers this offseason said to George Mitchell, “Here’s spit in your eye.” Gagne, Cameron, Mota… Maybe they can coax Canseco out of retirement?

Over in Sun Devil territory, the Arizona Republic reports that Brandon Lyon is the leading candidate for D-backs saves with Tony Pena available for one or more innings. This makes sense, since rarely the best pitcher is the one chosen to close games. Obviously, this is not the final say on this. I think Lyon or Pena could work, and when drafting a Diamondbacks closer, you may have to take both. Lyon could get 25 saves and Pena 15. Or vice versa.

The Cardinals’ Blog, Viva El Birdos, do an excellent job of breaking down Matt Clement projections. I love Matt Clement as much as the next guy, which is to say slightly more than Livan Hernandez and way more than Kip Wells, but the rotator cuff surgery is tough one to return from. In an NL-only league, I would bid on him. Could get you 100Ks and a four and a half ERA in a little over twenty games. In a mixed league, you have to pass.

A Rays fansite (Now, quiet, they have a few fans. (And, sorry to do a parenthesis inside a parenthesis, but I just wanted to point out I was gonna do that super-snarky thing when a blogger crosses out a word, but you can still read it, but I don’t know how to do strike-throughs. Alas…)) talks about how BROKEN LINKTroy Percival will allow Al Reyes to pitch the 8th inning.(Think this blog threw in the towel. Can’t understand why a Rays fan would do that.) Which is completely true (not that someone wrote that, but that it appears Percy will be the closer), but my question is why. As in, why don’t the Rays want to compete? Reyes was perfectly fine last year. Sure, he wore out as the season progressed, but don’t the Rays have a few more, ahem, fish to fry than signing a closer that retired already? First, they trade away Delmon Young, who could be feasting on major league pitching by as soon as this year, for Matt Garza. Yes, good pitching beats good hitting. We see it every All-Star game and every October. Yes, the Rays’ staff needs help, but Delmon looked like the real deal. Garza, I have my questions about. They could have gotten more. Second, they pick a closer off a scrap heap, to replace the other scrap-heaper. Unbelievable. I think the Rays are trying to pull a Chapter 11 deal like the Marlins. What is with Florida teams?

Over at a Sawx site, they discuss what Manny being Manny might be this year. Supposedly, Gammons has word that Manny’s hitting the weights. I say, Manny’s having Big Papi explain to him how Netflix works, but that’s me. I stand by what I wrote last month about Manny in 2008, but take a gander at what someone else thought.

Over at a Mets site, they talk about giving Pelfrey the ball every fifth day. I completely agree. He showed real promise in September. Not to mention, as the Mets rotation is starting to look, he might be the number two man. Santana for Reyes? Nah, but they better get Santana for someone(s).

1. Friends over at Inside Dodgers Baseball think the blue are out of the running for Bedard and Johan Santana. To me, this makes perfect sense. Dodgers need a bat with their lineup stacked with slap and run hitters.

2. A Yankee minor league blog, Pinstriped Scranton, talks about how Robinson Cano was, um, yanked from winter ball. Why he was even there to begin with is beyond me.

3. A Minnesota Twins farm system blog has a flashy picture of a slimmed down Miguel Cabrera. Next stop, Trimspa commercials!

4. People over at The Grand Jury have some possible scenarios on Mark Prior in Friar Tuck-brown. I choose option A.

I love Manny. I’m a lifelong Yankees fan and I love Manny. He’s totally gootarded (goofy and retarded). I can’t wait for Manny’s Hall of Fame speech, “Manny is very happy to have plaque, but my dentist is not.” Only Rickey Henderson’s Hall of Fame speech has a chance to equal it on the unintentional comedy scale. Today, however, we’re concerned with what Manny Ramirez will do in 2008, not 2015 when undoubtedly there will be flying cars.

In the last two years, Manny has missed 61 games, maybe twenty of them were from Manny being hurt rather than Manny being Manny. Last year his numbers were actually bad for where you had to draft him: 84/20/88/.296. Carlos Pena did this by June. Manny hits in a tremendous lineup and he has amazing strike-zone discipline. He should be able to post similar numbers to 2007 with his eyes closed. Unfortunately, Manny seems like he decided to get some shut-eye about two years ago. He’s the kid working the summer job at Friendly’s over Labor Day weekend. Tuesday’s back to school, and the kid just doesn’t care if you said Jimmies on the Happy Ending Sundae, you’re not getting Jimmies. Well, Manny just doesn’t care anymore. The sundae will still be good, but you’re not getting the Jimmies. For where you have to draft Manny, I say reject.

BTW, this picture reminded me of Manny being Manny:

Many of you would have preferred to have the “taco burns” than to have owned Jason Bay last year. He flailed at every inside pitch he was thrown, desperately trying to get something going. He managed to make people envious of Xavier Nady’s numbers.

People have long predicted Bay was nothing but a skinnier Bobby Higginson. If you look at Higginson’s career stats, he was also very useful early in his career. Now Higginson’s age 29 season is particularly interesting (the same one Bay will be entering), Higgy just came off an egregious season (just like Bay did) and he bounced back for a very productive season. So the same might be expected of Bay. But this is misinterpreting the facts. The facts:

His lineup is not getting better in 2008. In this off-season, a physician did not tend to the knee that hindered his running in 2007. Bay, instead, opted to let time heal all wounds. This does not bode well for a return to 10 or 15 steals. His BABIP for 2004, 2005 and 2006 were .352, .355 and .338 respectively. When he stopped getting so lucky in 2007, his average plummeted to .247. In 2007, Bay couldn’t catch up to any inside pitches as you can see from this graphic:

This is usually a sign that a player’s bat is slowing.

A slowing bat at 28, a horrible lineup around him and a player that had some good fortune with BABIP in the past does not equal a candidate for a rebound. So I might have suggested you draft Higginson in 2000, but I can’t do the same for Bay in 2008. Stamped: Rejected.