• Page 1 of 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • >

A great blonde berobed American once said, “In order to be the man, you gotta beat the man.” When it comes to DFS MLB projections, we want to be the man. We just are not sure who, if anyone, we need to beat to wear the championship belt.

So here is our challenge and it is open to anyone who publishes daily DFS MLB projections online. These projections may be free or sold by subscription (like ours for only $9.99/month!). I am willing to put up $500 to make this worth our while (you’ll have to do the same):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t have enough spam, give me the Razzball email newsletter!

Weekly Razzball news delivered straight to your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Fantasy baseball brings out the competitive bastard in me. Expert leagues, NFBC, and DFS sites like DraftKings are the standard targets of my affliction but I also get obsessive about our daily projections. Short of maybe gambling and winning big bucks in DFS (not going to happen with my limited risk tolerance), it is hard to find ways to test the quality of our daily projections.

It is not for lack of trying. I compare our DFS hitter and pitcher point projections against DFS site salaries in our DFSBot on our Ombotsman page and – going back to May 2014 – there has yet to be a month where a DFS site’s salary has outperformed us. I did a 2 month test last year against ESPN Fantasy Forecaster that showed our starting pitcher projections were superior. I tested last year’s projections against hitter and pitcher recent game data to find areas that could use improvement (highlighted pitcher IP should leverage recent starts more).

As I was contemplating new targets to compare against, I was IM’ing with our lead DFS writer (Sky) and he noted that he looks at Vegas Over/Under estimates for Runs when considering teams to stack. That got me thinking…I could go for some pancakes. After eating those pancakes, I thought, “What if I test our projections against Vegas!”. Then I napped.

Yada yada yada, below are the (favorable) test results versus Las Vegas MLB lines. See bottom of post for some testing notes. As an added bonus (until someone pays me to take them down), DFS Premium subscribers can see these team run projections updated every day (for today + at least the next 6 days) on our Teamonator page.

Please visit our Subscription page for more information on our daily projection subscription packages. We offer daily, monthly, and season long packages – catering both to the Roto and DFS player (if you play both, even better).

Also, stay tuned tomorrow for an awesome addition to DFSBot!!!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Razzball’s daily fantasy baseball tools – Streamonator, Hittertron, and DFSBot – are available by subscription in 2015. If you play in roto leagues with daily roster changes or Daily Fantasy Sports like DraftKings, these tools will rock your world. Please see our Subscriptions page for details – including how to get a free subscription by opening up a new Daily Fantasy Sports account.

In my previous ‘hot hitter’ post, I found that a hitter’s recent performance (measured as last 3 games and last 5 games) had no value in projecting next game performance once you account for the player’s known skill (as measured by Steamer Rest of Season projections) and the relevant gameday matchup info incorporated into our Hittertron/DFSBot (e.g., quality of opposing pitcher, handedness of opposing pitcher, park factors).

This post will cover whether recent performance by a starting pitcher helps improve the next start projections in our Streamonator and the pitching component of DFSBot.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

After hitting the ‘Publish’ button on my recent post titled ‘Razzball Streamonator TKO’s ESPN Fantasy Forecaster‘, I pictured reading and answering the comments to be like a victory lap*.  Look at me, I’m Cal Ripken!  While I got a healthy share of pats on the back from Razzball Nation (thanks as always!), some commenters were also kind enough to note that Streamonator and Hittertron could learn something from the ESPN Fantasy Forecaster – notably the handy dandy 7-day grid with all the probable starters.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The ESPN Fantasy Forecaster is a comprehensive weekly post chocked full of information to help fantasy baseballers in weekly leagues.  It is penned (typed?) by FSWA Hall of Famer Tristan Cockcroft who, incidentally, is our favorite ESPN fantasy baseball writer and someone very well-liked and respected among experts.

Each week, the ESPN Fantasy Forecaster estimates the value of every start with a ‘Game Score‘ – a metric devised by Bill James. It is unclear whether Tristan calculates the estimated Game Scores or this comes from someone else at ESPN.

This post is a head-to-head test of our Streamonator vs the ESPN Fantasy Forecaster to see which is better at predicting pitcher starts/stream values.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It has been almost 2 years since we launched our first daily fantasy baseball tool (Streamonator in 2012).  Since then, we have launched several other tools such as Rest of Season Player Rater + Hittertron in 2013 and DFSBot in 2014.

Razzball Nation has been a huge part of these tools from the start – both in encouraging us to create them and providing ongoing feedback to make them better (e.g., we now report ‘next week’ data on Fridays to assist those in weekly roster leagues, added game time, etc).

But one valid ‘ask’ that we have not been able to deliver until now is:  “How accurate are Razzball daily projections?”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is part of an annual multi-part series designed to help Fantasy Baseball fans determine on what fantasy rankings and projections to rely.  The first part will cover Rankings.  The next parts will cover Projections.

Below are the ranking sources that are part of the test.  I have hyperlinked to the actual rankings wherever possible.  Some of these links, including ours, will override once 2014 rankings are published.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is part of a two-part series designed to help Fantasy Baseball fans determine on what fantasy rankings and projections to rely.  The first part covered Rankings.  The second part will cover Projections.  The methodology for the test relies on comparing Razzball Commenter League team drafts (576 teams in 2012 across 48 12-Team MLB leagues using ESPN’s default 5×5 format) and their end of season point totals.  Please, blog, may I have some more?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is part of a two-part series designed to help Fantasy Baseball fans determine on what fantasy rankings and projections to rely.  The first part will cover Rankings.  The second part will cover Projections.  The methodology for the test relies on comparing Razzball Commenter League team drafts (576 teams in 2012 across 48 12-Team MLB leagues using ESPN’s default 5×5 format) and their end of season point totals.  Please, blog, may I have some more?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
  • Page 1 of 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • >