Curtis Granderson looks like the same hitter he was last year. Just without the luck. He had a .391 BABIP last season. Whoa, Grey, those numbers scare me. Grab your blankie, and listen. I’m trying to educate you. Razzball Point Shares ranked Granderson 73rd overall. Baseball Prospectus put Granderson’s 2008 projections at 88/21/80/.267/15. They were admittedly being generous. They did not rank him in the top ten for outfielders. Adam Dunn is ranked tenth. Granderson’s speed and power will remain, but those home runs and steals may come at a price. If you could trade him for Vladimir Guerrero or even Corey Hart, I would do it. I don’t think you can get, say, Johan Santana. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Eric Gagne - Backne into the closer’s role. How far has he fallen? When he closed it out, Shouse was warming up in the pen just in case. I’m positive Gagne’ll blow another save by this time next week. If you have room, hold onto Torres or Mota.

Edinson Volquez - He fell into some trouble in the fifth and looked like he was getting frustrated even when he was getting some good calls by the ump. *I’m going to write this next part before the Reds go to bat in the fifth with Volquez due up third* Volquez is removed for a pinch hitter and finishes the game with 95 pitches thrown. A great start again from Volquez, but his temperament when he started to walk people in the fifth should be watched. *Okay, I’m going back to real time.* OF COURSE, HE’S BATTING IN THE BOTTOM OF THE FIFTH. Hey, Dusty, Mark Prior called, he wants his arm back. Luis Gonzalez just singled to leadoff the sixth. Why is Edinson starting an inning when he’s at 95 pitches and his top of the fifth was a very stressful inning? I hate Dusty. Well, it ended up okay, although Jacobs hit a long fly ball to the warning track to end the inning.

Jeff Keppinger - The knee bone is connected to the… Oops. Drop him in all leagues. People probably aren’t even reading this, unless it affects them, so I’m talking to the former Keppinger owners. I feel your pain, man! *manly pat on your shoulder* He was having a very solid MI season for NL-Only. I know, I had him. This injury kinda killed me. Who I’m looking at for replacing him: Vizquel, Cedeno, Hairston, Amezaga, Izturis and Bruntlett respectively. Not a noisemaker in the group.

Khalil Greene - Hit another home run. I have this theory that all mulatto children are attractive, so I’m going to assume Khalil doesn’t have any coffee in his cream. Just not sure where the name Khalil comes from.

Ryan Garko - The entire Tribe team is too talented to struggle offensively forever.

Matt Joyce - Took Greinke deep. He could be some cheap power.

Ronny Paulino - In NL-Only leagues, he’s getting a bulk of the starts because Doumit is headed to the DL.

Kevin Slowey - I’ve already mentioned how I’m not a huge fan of AL pitchers, but Slowey is one I like.

Jo-Jo Reyes - When Hill went down, I said Jo-Jo was a good possible replacement. He pitched better than his four earned runs. Howard hit him hard, but not much else. Also, no walks.

Jeremy Guthrie - Another starter I pegged to look at to replace Hill. He beat the Sox with solid Ks.

John Maine - Ya’ll know how I feel about Maine. I did rank him fifteenth overall for starting pitchers.

Zach Greinke - Labored a bit in this start, but made the big pitches when he had to. BTW, this was against the Tigers, the team that was pegged coming into the season as the ‘27 Yankees. Even though sportswriters say that shizz every year in March about at least three teams.

Edwin Jackson - Since we have on our throwback jerseys, the Yankees look like the ‘86 Angels minus the pitching. I can’t imagine Girardi is thrilled with this group. Jackson looked good again. He was a great prospect and he’s still very young (24). I think you absolutely have to give him a shot at this point. He should’ve got the win if it wasn’t for Percival, who surprisingly wasn’t on the ‘86 Angels. It just feels like it.

Jered Weaver - The one-hitter left Ozzie Guillen with no one to kiss.

Eddie Guardado - Those saves vultures out there might want to look here, especially after the poundings CJ Wilson took the last two times out. If he gets roughed up like that a couple more times, Ron Washington may open up the “Conventional Baseball Managing for Dummies” book and pitch a righty in the ninth.

Stephen Drew - Since my trade of Shawn Hill for Stephen Drew was turned down faster than Eckstein trying to buy beer, Drew’s gone 6/2/7/.333.

It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister - I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford - Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun - Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill - Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene - Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla - Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton - I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier - Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana - Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla - If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn - Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.

Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.

BUY

Robinson Cano - Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.

Carlos Quentin - I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?

Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.

Travis Hafner - I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.

Paul Konerko - As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.

Erick Aybar - You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.

Shane Victorino - Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)

Jose Guillen - This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.

Dioner Navarro - Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.

Matt Stairs - Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?

Felipe Lopez - Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.

Clint Barmes - Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.

SELL

Brandon Phillips - See this morning’s post. Or not. I’ll sleep okay. I wear a sleep mask.

Gary Sheffield - He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.

Francisco Liriano - In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.

Jorge Cantu - If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.

Asdrubal Cabrera - As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.

Eric Hinske - He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.

Alfonso Soriano - Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.

Jose Lopez - He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.

Kevin Youkilis - He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.

Daniel Cabrera - Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 San Diego Padres preview.)

When evaluating Padres players in terms of fantasy value, it’s important to consider their home park. The Padres play half their games in an environment that stifles offense, particularly home runs. This means that their pitchers tend to perform better than might otherwise be expected, while hitters tend to perform worse. Each individual is different, of course, but this is a good thing to remember in general.

What follows is a position-by-position look at the 2008 Padres. I’ve also included a few (hopefully useful) tips at the end. Enjoy!

• Catcher

Josh Bard is an above-average hitter at his position. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that his 2006 power surge appears to have been a fluke. Bard hits a lot of doubles and draws a lot of walks, both of which are more useful in real life than to your fantasy team.

Michael Barrett was a train wreck after coming to San Diego in 2007. He looked lost at the plate last season, but he’s only 31 years old and he was a top-shelf offensive catcher from 2004 to 2006, so he could rebound. Barrett’s playing time is uncertain, though, and Petco Park is a tough place to re-establish one’s offensive game.

• First Base

Although Adrian Gonzalez probably is a better hitter than, say, Brad Hawpe, fantasy owners must temper their expectations. If Gonzalez played half his games in Milwaukee or Philadelphia, he’d be an instant MVP candidate. But he doesn’t play in either of those places, so don’t pay him like he does.

• Second Base

The Keystone corner can’t get much worse for the Padres than it was in 2007, when Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum manned the position. Newcomer Tadahito Iguchi’s numbers appeared to be in decline last year. Then he moved to the Phillies late in the season and got to experience the joy of hitting at Citizens Bank Park. He won’t have that advantage in 2008. Like Bard, Iguchi provides greater value to his team than to yours.

• Third Base

Kevin Kouzmanoff is a nice little secret. His overall numbers as a rookie were depressed by a miserable start, but from May 7 onward, he hit .309/.362/.511. Kouzmanoff is a good bet to hit .300 or knock 25 home runs in 2008 – possibly both.

• Shortstop

Petco Park is tough on all hitters, but it destroys Khalil Greene. If he played all his games on the road, he’d be Alfonso Soriano at shortstop. But he doesn’t, and he isn’t. His lack of plate discipline won’t hurt you as much as it will hurt the Padres. Greene is good for 20-25 homers, maybe more, but his batting average seems to be stuck in the .250s. If he can get one more hit a week, Greene will vault into the elite shortstop category. If not, he’ll remain what he is – pretty good, but not great.

• Left Field

Scott Hairston hit everything thrown his way after coming to the Padres late last summer. The question with Hairston is whether he can sustain that over a full season. He’s never been given the chance, but he once was a top prospect and he’s still only 28. Assuming Hairston stays healthy and can build on last year’s success, he looks like a good breakout candidate to me.

Chase Headley is a third baseman who has been moved to left field because of Kouzmanoff. All indications are that the transition has been successful, and it’s just a matter of time before Headley contributes for the big club. If he doesn’t win the starting left field job, he may start the season at Triple-A. Long term, think Jeff Cirillo with a little more power, or maybe Mike Lowell lite.

• Center Field

Jim Edmonds is 38 years old and coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns. His skills appear to be in steep decline, and at this point, he’s good for the occasional walk and home run, but probably not much else. There are better options for your fantasy team, and if you can’t find them, you need to look harder.

• Right Field

Like Edmonds, Brian Giles is in the twilight of a fine career. Turn back the clock 5 years, and the Padres have themselves two-thirds of the best outfield in baseball. Without a time machine, though, they have a couple guys hoping for one last good season.

• Starting Pitcher

In 2007, Jake Peavy had the year we all thought he was capable of having. He stayed healthy and mostly dominated, winning the Cy Young Award in the process. The one area where Peavy could improve is efficiency. Because he throws so many pitches, he never made it through the eighth inning last year. Even so, he is a true ace for a big-league team as well as for a fantasy team. Expect more of the same: 15+ wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts.

Chris Young was establishing himself as one of the NL’s elite pitchers when he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain in late July. Young didn’t miss much time, but when he came back, it was without his command. Like Peavy, he is inefficient and sometimes has trouble late in games. A return to pre-injury levels (1.82 ERA) is unrealistic, but assuming Young is healthy, he should continue to be a great option for the front of a fantasy rotation.

Greg Maddux doesn’t get old; old gets Maddux. Lame jokes aside, put the veteran right-hander down for his usual: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, and an army of frustrated hitters.

The last time Randy Wolf made as many as 20 starts in a season was 2004. The last time he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002. Petco Park may help with the latter, but whether the 31-year-old southpaw can make it through a full season remains to be seen.

Mark Prior is the nominal #5 starter but isn’t expected to pitch until late-May at the earliest. He worked 43 2/3 innings in 2006 and none last year. Expect nothing and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Justin Germano got off to a great start as a rookie in 2007 before the league figured out that his stuff is eminently hittable. He’s a stopgap solution who, given the track records of Wolf and Prior, may be asked to do too much. Again.

• Relief Pitcher

Trevor Hoffman basically had two bad outings last year. Unfortunately they came at the worst possible times and in full view of a national audience that ordinarily ignores the Padres. Pundits have been prognosticating Hoffman’s decline for years. At age 40 and with less margin for error than ever (keep your eye on the shrinking K/9), he may finally prove them right.

One wonders what the New York Mets might have been able to accomplish last year had they not chosen to discard Heath Bell. The right-hander throws hard, throws strikes, and proved extremely durable in his first full big-league season. Bell may not be able to duplicate his monster 2007, but even if he slips a little, he should hold plenty of value. Bell may get some save opportunities when Hoffman needs a day off and could eventually take over the closer role in San Diego.

There is no more extreme groundball pitcher in baseball than Cla Meredith. He elevated his pitches during the middle months of 2007 but finished strong. Meredith won’t get any save opportunities and has little or no value to fantasy players. If you play in sim leagues, e.g., Scoresheet, Meredith can be a useful part of your bullpen.

• Parting Thoughts

I know what I’ve said about Petco Park, but Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff really are terrific young hitters. Gonzalez has done it two years in a row now, and he’s still only 26. His batting average dropped a bit last season, but his walk rate and isolated power improved.

As for Kouzmanoff, he has a great approach at the plate and hits everything hard. Don’t be fooled by his slow start last year. One thing the Padres like about him is the way he handled himself during that stretch. As a rookie, he easily could have gotten down on himself and lost his job, but if anything was bothering him, he never let it show. He will produce at third base.

It’s a small sample, but Hairston looked legit down the stretch last year. If I had to pick one breakout candidate on offense for the Padres, he’d be the guy.

On the pitching side, Peavy is a no-brainer. Keep a close eye on Bell, too, as he’ll be first in line if Hoffman falters. Even if Hoffman doesn’t falter, he’s good for no more than 60 innings these days, which means some saves could land in Bell’s lap.

Finally, Padres pitchers did a miserable job of holding runners in 2007. Young and Maddux were the biggest culprits. Young has been working on this aspect of his game in spring training, but it’s hard to say how much that will pay off during the season. Base stealers who play in the NL West could have a slight advantage over their counterparts who don’t get to face the Padres as often. It might not be enough to make a difference, but you may want to keep this in the back of your mind.

Happy hunting!
Geoff Young runs Ducksnorts and Knuckle Curve.