Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve gone over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen and top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. Now we finish up the infield with the top 20 Shortstops for 2008. Something I noticed as I went over the top 20 shortstops, it’s extremely shallow. Let’s look at number 7, Michael Young. Is Young the weakest #7 on any list? Well, the #7 catcher is Pierzynski. That’s close, but I’ll give the edge to Young. The #7 1st baseman is Ryan Howard. Um, okay. The #7 2nd baseman is Jose Lopez. Lopez was better. The #7 3rd baseman was Miguel Cabrera. You want Miggy. The #7 Outfielder will be Ichiro. You’d want Ichiro. So is it fair to say the  shortstop position is the shallowest after catchers? Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Dur. One thing that makes all of this arguable is you need more outfielders than shortstops. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Jose Reyes – I ranked Reyes number two overall in my preseason top ten because I love Reyes.  (He ended up number two overall, as well) He stole a few less bases this year, but he made up with it by hitting a few more home runs. His runs were off, but, as previously discussed in other top 20 lists, offense was down all over. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  130/14/70/.295/70, Final Numbers: 113/16/68/.297/56

2. Hanley Ramirez – Okay, here’s someone I really tried to temper expectations in the preseason by ranking him down at number six for overall top ten and ranking him number two on the shortstop list. These ranks are actually pretty close. The larger problem, I thought his power would come down and his steals would go up. But, in all fairness, my stat prediction was off.  His power was fine, but steals were down. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  110/17/85/.295/45, Final Numbers: 125/33/67/.301/35

3. Jimmy Rollins – I tried to move people away from drafting Rollins last year because he was coming off an over-hyped MVP season. This turned out to be the right move. I thought his power was a fluke, but not this dramatically. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  130/22/70/35/.290, Final Numbers:  76/11/59/47/.277

4. Derek Jeter – Lots of you drafted him because you wanted your girlfriends or wives to have a rooting interest for your fantasy baseball team. Mrs. Razzball reader, “Okay, we can have sex, but I want to call you Jeter.” Mr. Razzball reader, “Deal!” Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/15/70/.315/15, Final Numbers:  88/11/69/.300/11

5. Jhonny Peralta – Here’s a guy I pushed in the preseason. (Not literally. That’s assault.) His power was down in the 2nd half of the season for the 2nd season in a row. This is something to watch. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.270/3, Final Numbers:  104/23/89/.276/3

6. Alexei Ramirez – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

7. Michael Young – He played through a fractured finger to try and get to 200 hits, but still fell short. I’m convinced he would’ve played through the eye of a tropical cyclones for his 200th hit. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/12/95/.310/10, Final Numbers:  102/12/82/.284/10

8. Stephen Drew – Finally starting to come out of that long-injured shadow of his big bro. Yo, big bro, could you hand me the remote? Oh, shoot! Mom, J.D. just pulled his hammy! Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/20/75/.270/15, Final Numbers:  91/21/67/.291/3

9. Ryan Theriot – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

10. Orlando Cabrera – Luckily Renteria is ten spots away. I wouldn’t want a fight breaking out in the top twenty list. Preseason Rank #15, Preseason Predictions:  100/9/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  93/8/57/.281/19

11. Cristian Guzman – The only preseason ‘pert prediction (<–alliteration, boyz!) Guzman even sniffed was, “Guzman will suck.” And that’s me quoting some made up prediction! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/9/55/.316/6

12. J.J. Hardy – All the right metrics were moving in the right direction this year for Hardy. A very promising sign moving forward. Oh, wait, right now we’re looking back. Um… Hardy was almost exactly the player I thought he was going to be. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/80/.260, Final Numbers:  78/24/74/.283/2

13. Mike Aviles – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

14. Miguel Tejada – In the preseason, I hoped Tejada’s machismo from being called out for ‘roids would kick in and lead him to a great season. Turned out the lack of ‘roids manscaped his machismo. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/100/.290/3, Final Numbers:  92/13/66/.283/7

15. Carlos Guillen – I disliked this schmohawk coming into the season and he even underperformed my expectations. Yo, Guillen, go get your shinebox! Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  95/15/75/.300/8, Final Numbers:  68/10/54/.286/9

16. Jerry Hairston Jr. – The fact he made the list says more about the state of the shortstop position than I could write so blah blah blah… Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/6/36/.326/15

17. Clint Barmes – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Jason Bartlett – Jason Bartlett was ranked 19th and he came in 19th. For all of you in nineteen team leagues that didn’t listen to me. I told you so! Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/5/45/.270/25, Final Numbers: 48/1/37/.286/20

20. Edgar Renteria – Because Renteria came in last at number 20, there’s a group of Colombian bandits Renteria hired that are GPS-tracking me. My only chance for survival is the group of Colombian bandits Orlando Cabrera hired to protect me. This is worst than the 80s Cola Wars. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  95/10/75/.295/15, Final Numbers: 69/10/55/.270/6

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.