Fantasy Baseball Advice

Whaddup, boyz! Okay, we went over top 20 catchers for 2008 already. But you weren’t happy with just that. You wanted more. So we went over the top 20 1st basemen. But did that satiate you? Please, you don’t even know what satiate means. So here we are with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Happy now? I know, maybe for a day. Unlike our previous top 20 lists, the top 20 2nd basemen might excite you a bit. This is all dependent on how coal-black your heart is, of course. Will this list draw animated wings on your sneakers and help you fly around room? I sure hope so. Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Dustin Pedroia – Booyakasha, Buju Banton!  A funny thing happened on the way to the end of the season, offense was severely down. Not just in the top twenty 1st basemen, but in this list as well. I wasn’t terribly off with my preseason predictions for Pedroia, but his rank was 14th in the preseason and he came in 1st. Insane. I want a new ‘roid.  One that won’t be detected. One that will let a 2nd basemen hit like Kent and help Brian Roberts be respected. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/12/60/.300/12, Final Numbers: 118/17/83/.326/20

2. Chase Utley – You know Utley, so I’m going to relay a story. A friend of mine is a career minor leaguer. He’s had a few cups of coffee in the majors, but to follow that analogy to its conclusion, he’s still drowsy. A couple of years back, he got the September call-up for the Phillies. Being a starter in the minors, he was thrust into the coveted mop-up role. So it’s a 9-1 game, or some equally lopsided score, and my friend gets the call. To everyone in the stadium, it meant a pee break. To him, he got to jog out to a major league mound, something he dreamt about since he was a boy. The appearance was nothing more than a blip on some discarded box score. For him, it was two innings struggling to get hitters out. It was his day, yet it just wasn’t. Back in the locker room afterwards, players still went up and congratulated him on getting to the show. But not Utley. Nope. Utley bought him two prostitutes. They were delivered on one condition, Utley wanted to bang them first. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  120/32/115/.325/12, Final Numbers: 113/33/104/.292/14

3. Ian Kinsler – Would’ve been number one if it wasn’t for a testy testes.  Going down in mid-August, he lost a month and half and still got the job done like Big Daddy Kane. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/25/70/.270/25, Final Numbers: 102/18/71/.319/26

4. Brian Roberts – Okay, I’m not a fan. It’s been well-documented on this site. Use the search, candy ass! But… and this is a Queen Latifah-sized but, there’s not a whole lot of guys below Roberts that I really want either. Ugh, 2nd base. The Mapquest said your road was open. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  105/10/55/.290/30, Final Numbers: 107/9/57/.296/40

5. B.J. Upton – Upton had a bizarre season (and similar to Rios). He gave you value, but not quite the type of value you were hoping for, which is a double-edged sword or whatever cliché applies. You needed more power from Upton so, speed or not, he left you wanting more. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

6. Mark DeRosa – One of those guys that ranks so high because he gave you a little bit of everything.  While at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, I realized I usually prefer a player that has a lot of one thing rather than the player that gives you a little bit of everything. Why, Grey? Please, fill our heads with fantasy smarts. Ok, random italicized voice, most guys that give you one of something, actually do give you that one thing. For instance, take Ryan Howard (to a Sizzler. My man’s hungry. Wocka-wocka-wocka…). Howard will give you power. Now take Conor Jackson. He’s giving you… Um… Average! Then… Um… Maybe some power. Maybe some speed. In other words, guys that give you a little bit of everything, could give you a lot of nothing. Let me emphasize, this does not include guys that give you a lot of everything (Hanley) or a lot of one thing (Reyes). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

7. Jose Lopez – Went over yesterday in the top 1st basemen for 2008.

8. Brandon Phillips – Here’s what I said in September regarding what I said in January, “…He wasn’t benched until August for the slump that was “all in his head,” (instead of my original January prediction of July)…” And that’s me referencing me, quoting me and paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  80/19/75/.240/25, Final Numbers:  79/21/77/.262/23

9. Dan Uggla – After going into the All-Star break with a .286 average, he tried his damnedest to get to my predicted .245 average. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/30/80/.245, Final Numbers:  97/32/92/.260/5

10. Alexei Ramirez – He’s getting comparisons to Alfonso Sorinao for his smile, swing and doctoring birth certificate skills.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

11. Ryan Theriot – In January, I thought Theriot looked like a nice end of draft bargain. In October, I look like I was right. (Note: Theriot was ranked with the SS in the preseason. In all fairness, I would’ve ranked him about here.) Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

12. Placido Polanco – And here’s the epitome of a little bit of everything. Preseason Rank #12, Preseason Predictions:  90/7/65/.310/7, Final Numbers:  90/8/58/.307/7

13. Kelly Johnson – In reality, he’s a little bit better than Polanco, but his average lands him just below him. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/17/65/.275/12, Final Numbers:  86/12/69/.287/11

14. Mike Aviles – Considering he didn’t start playing full-time until June, you got a ton of value from Aviles and he probably saved a lot of you the agony of rotating Piss Boys, i.e. Willie Harris and Joe Inglett.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

15. Ty Wigginton – During the month of August, Razzball declared it National Wigginton’s On My Team Month So Be Gone Yunel Escobar as Wigginton slugged a new Astros record 12 home runs. That’s right, one insane month and he made it to 15th on the top 20 2nd basemen list. One more good month and he would’ve finished top two. (Note: He was ranked for 3rd basemen, not 2nd basemen.) Preseason Predictions:  70/20/70/.270, Final Numbers:  50/23/58/.285

16. Kaz Matsui – Godzilla Jr. is better than Dinosaur Jr. I have nothing else nice to say about Kaz.  Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  75/3/30/.275/25, Final Numbers:  58/6/33/.293/20

17. Clint Barmes – I told you to pick up this schmohawk in April. You could possibly hold that against me. Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  Bizarre Injury from meat, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar – Went from underrated to underperforming in under two months. (Note: Preseason Rank #18 for SS.) Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Robinson Cano – At some point in May, I convinced myself that Robinson Cano was a buy and due for a turnaround. At some point, someone should have beat me over the head with a blunt object. Oh, Cano, you let me down. Preseason Rank #2 (coincidentally Cano took a number two all season), Preseason Predictions:  100/25/100/.295/3, Final Numbers:  70/14/72/.271/2

20. Akinori Iwamura – More incredible than this schmohawk appearing on the list is Cano showing up right before him and Weeks would be right after him. If you saw that coming, there’s bukkake in your eye. Preseason Rank, None, but rank’s second most common definition is “offensively gross,” Preseason Predictions:  Offensively gross is not a euphemism for a productive hitter, Final Numbers: Bleh!

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.