For some strange reason, I have the great Willie Nelson song in my head… On The Road again. Why, you ask? Because I am out perusing the great country of ours and doing fantasy football’s 32x32x32 with Nick. I may be thinking football, but my heart is in San Francisco… rather bullpens. So it was all quiet on the savedom front til recently, when some usual save stalwarts stubbed some toes. While some repeat offenders… yeah you Joe Nathan just continue to lull us into a state of perpetual eye-rolling… all of these issues are no bueno for the push to make playoffs in some formats, or those pining for the stat push in point leagues. I am personally not too worried about the married guys, they are there for good reasons; they do it all year and you have them for saves or to save not. I am more throwing my ire towards those middle guys, the Steve Cishek‘s and Rafael Soriano types who have given us decency all year and then have recently given us both ERA’s over 7 a piece the last 2 weeks. So buyer beware at this point for stat purposes with these guys they aren’t going to be replaced but the production is on the level of a doozer on light duty. Stick around for some tid-bits of knowledge or stay to just say high. [Jay’s Note: Oh… I get it.]Please, blog, may I have some more?
If there was a NBA Jam version for relievers, it would go to the Royals bullpen. They are the hottest team since sliced pimento loaf, and as of this typing, are finding themselves tops in the AL Central. I have said it before and I will say it again– play the hot hand until it slaps you where it shouldn’t. They are led recently and not recently, as in all year, by Wade Davis. Davis, on the year, has been just stellar: 6-2 K rate over 13 and has allowed only 5 ER all year. That my friends is about as robust as the McRib sandwich being not not real rib meat. Over the last two weeks Davis has lead the world in Holds with 7. His subtle sidekick has been a nice mix of Jason Frasor and Kelvin Herrera, both garnering fantasy value in their own way. Frasor notching 2 wins in relief and Herrera grabbing 4 holds for himself… both guys also have the same ERA as Davis during the last 2 weeks. It’s zero, so stop with the guesses. Ride the lightning here as the Royale’s w/o cheese are scorching the universe like a bikini waxing store. Stay tuned for more middle relief haps and slaps.Please, blog, may I have some more?
It’s way too quiet in here… I need a sniper to take out a closer or something. Maybe a team of trained Labrador assassins [Jay’s Note: Everyone knows that Labradoodle assassins are better.], no one would expect that. The “Seeing Eyes of Terror” would be their name. Speaking of which, I want to concentrate this week on the under-ratedness of Huston Street. The trade that helps him, the new ballpark that allows his team to actually score runs, and the ability to be that close to Mike Trout. So we are going to venture back through time and space, steal some plutonium from some Libyans, and go back to stats for 2012 to the present day. Confused? Good, me too. So, since 2012, Huston St. is top-10 in saves (86), tops in save % with only 4 BS in 3 years, at a 95.3% clip. And he also has had a resurgence in K Rate to push it over 9 K/9, but for a better perspective, he K’s batters at a 26.5% rate. Hold on, I’m not done yet. He is also one of only four RP with a K rate of over 9 and a walk rate under 2.1. Add all that up, and I love Street for this year, and next year well he will probably be over-drafted based on this post alone. Catch you all on the flip-flip, meaning comments.
Psyche! Before you go further, you should take me on in our Fantasy Football RCL’s for chances at some really neato prizes! (Or commish one for a chance at a Best Buy gift card!)Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I type this, I’m in a small, but expected depression as a disgruntled Mets fan living in Minnesota after today’s non-waiver trade deadline. In the middle of thermal packaging related activities, I saw deal and deal and deal swing by. All I get from both the teams that I follow most? A Kurt Suzuki extension. Oye. All that did was disgruntle me more, as I like Josmil Pinto quite a bit. I figured at least Bartolo Colon would get traded for some PTBL or a BoB (bucket o’ balls). Ah well.
On the other hand, if you’re a Tigers fan (I’m not a bandwagon A’s fan until the Mets are good, I decided today), you must be pretty excited. Drew Smyly wasn’t as dominating as a starter and Austin Jackson continued to short-come expectations. Instead you have an second ace, and can now appropriately consider Justin Verlander your number 3 or 4 or 5. [Jay’s Note: Or playoff closer?] Verlander has not been good, but he’s also been almost as unlucky as he’s been bad, or he’s hurt and isn’t saying anything/doesn’t know it.
July 1st, I noted the luckiest pitchers to date, but the one thing I didn’t do at that time was look at the pitcher’s luck/bad luck relative to their career rates. So for this post, for luck, I z-scored each pitcher’s luck stats relative to their career stats (homerun to flyball ratio, left on base% and BABIP). I weighed each z-score by the stats correlation to ERA. Therefore the luckies pitchers (using luck alone and excluding skill) as of 7/27 is: Josh Beckett, Jake Arrieta, Collin McHugh, Scott Kazmir, Garrett Richards, Zach Britton, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Dellin Betances, Alfredo Simon and Danny Duffy. Chris Young, Jason Hammel and Jesse Chavez (update: both Hammel and Chavez were rocked in their last start). However, this all excludes skill (contact rate, strikeout% minus walk% and ground ball to flyball ratio). Incorporating this, here are the actual luckiest pitchers as of 7/27:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The deadline will have past by the time you’re reading this, so I’m sorry that I can’t meet or exceed all those expectations. What I can do is give you the in’s and out’s of middle relief. Wait, why did everyone just get up and leave? There is punch and pie at the end! So is everyone else confused on what to do with Will Smith?… yeah, me too. He’s been getting beat up lately needs a vacation. Smith leads the league in appearances, is the leader in appearances with the lead by a non-closer (41), and has pitched an amazing 17 times on consecutive days. He has rewarded you with 19( albeit painful) NSVH, but his recent implosions may lead me to think there could be a better option for the time being. His BB/9 over the last 30 screams bad news, (P.S., it’s in the seven’s). I mean, I know the 24 Holds this year is all good and looks like a Canal St. watch, but if you have someone that just reads stats and doesn’t read between the lines of fantasy too well, see if they give you a name you like better. My best advice is pull a Judas Priest and run for the hills. Stay tuned for some charts and fun words and sentences that lead to abbreviated paragraphs. Good luck in the week to come.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Well, I guess enough was enough in Detroit. It’s always nice to waltz around with a security blanket like Linus, and have the ability to add a closer to back-up a closer that is making 10 mil a year. Joakim Soria walks into the room dressed like Lloyd Christmas and is all tops and tails. Great starting pitching and an actual winning team that he can back up. For the Rangers this year, he had 17 saves for a 40 win club. Turn that around, and he went from being on a 21-games-under-.500-team to a 14-games-over one. His only problem is that he is flirting at the Sadie Hawkins dance with the date that Brad Ausmus brought, and Nathan has a some pull there. My take is it’s not going to be long before the settle in on “The Mexicutioner”. So I have them ranked mid-table until the dust settles and we see what’s what. I mean, all Soria has to do is show some kind of consistency, and boom, you have a top-8 closer for the rest of the year. You can think what you want, but Detroit is a 90 win team all day and a bag of chips tomorrow, however that expression goes… In Texas, Neal Cotts and Neftali Feliz as of now look like the two heads of the class for minimal save value in Arlington. So the closer-thon to cure save depravity has begun, adjust your rosters, operaters are standing buy to take your recent waiver wire donations.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Ahh, I remember the Midway, it was fun it was like an air show but instead of crashes there were bullets. I was just informed by Jay that statement is both wrong and wrong. Moving on as graceful as Martha Graham. So I was actually thankful for a few days off, unhappy I didn’t make the all-star team, but I’m told that poor vocabulary and lack of knowledge of the home row keys are not determining stats that merit all-stardom. Holds are fun, I don’t care what you say, if that makes me a loser for rooting for a fake stat, then I’m a loser. This guys help your team though even if you don’t play in a Holds or NSVH league. I am being serious. I am the Will I am Tell of the loogy business. Let’s check out my four up and four down for the closers in the second half, and stay around after that for some set-up news and blues.Please, blog, may I have some more?
In school they teach, or try to teach, in most of our cases for the ADHD crowd, the essentials of a good curriculum. Reading, Writing and arithmetic. We can apply that to the closer situation in Arizona. Addison Reed is the closer, but for how much longer?, is the key conundrum. He see’s the writing on the wall, but he also has the backing of his manager throughout the season (and again on Tuesday), and has since blown 2 more saves. Though the way the D-Backs are going, would it be optimal for them to ground an asset, or a “sort of asset” now, and then try and go a different direction later via trade? Cuz let’s be honest, they aren’t going anywhere, and have capable arms in the majors and minors to jump in if necessary. Now the math part, well that is why we do fantasy baseball, it’s all about the numbers. Which, in Addison’s case, really sounds like a totally hot chicks name, prolly drives a Jeep Wrangler, wears her dad’s old jeans as cut-offs, basically a goer if you catch my drift. [Jay’s Note: I really don’t.] Where was I and why am I all sweaty? Oh…numbers. Reed’s K’s are up and walks are down from his career numbers… but but but Smokey, those are good things. Right? Well, technically yes, but when luck runs out you go to Zig-Zags, and by that, I mean Brad Ziegler, (the next guy up in the event of a change). Yes, even with the escape-goat win on Wednesday. I mean, Addison has done really nothing wrong besides blow 5 games, and sometimes looks about as hittable as Rihanna. So sit on Addison, but cushion the blow with B-Rad, and for dynasty lookers, take a look at Jake Barrett. Let’s see what other geniuses of truth happened in the last week or two.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Like typical closenado news and happenings, it comes in spurts. The White Sox, Giants, and the Angels all made changes this past week. All changes were needed, but only one team, the Giants, look like they will try something new and not return to the original status quo. Sergio Romo is a proven and decent closer, but he’s overused, predictable, and doesn’t throw very hard. The change to Santiago Casilla and the cast of Affeldt, Machi or any other Giants RP seems to be temporary. Casilla has done well in the past with 25 saves in 2012, and a shiny ERA that hasn’t eclipsed 3+ since 2010. Consistency makes you reliable as a relief pitcher. I stole that from a German beer ad, or at least I think I did…it was in German and me no sprechen di lingie. So to continue the look down the road, take a look at the SF bullpen picture for next year and you’ll notice that Romo is a free agent. So the point is: either Santiago Casilla is the answer there for a one-year stop gap, or should they look to, what is IMO, the best relief pitching group of prospects in baseball. They have three guys who look to be ready (dynasty leaguers go get a pen!): Stephen Okert, Heath Hembree, and my favorite, Ray Black (public advisory over drop pens). So sit on Casilla if you grabbed him. It could be a long ride, but big head Bochy, and the monsters of the SF bullpen have a proven closer that will, for all intents and purposes, be back…maybe. It’s more fun to leave it suspenseful, like Murder She Wrote.Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I write this, I’m on a plane. I knew I wouldn’t have internet, so I asked myself what data could I pull and play with to help you play with your team. Let me play guarantee fairy again… I’m supposed to be writing about Deep Impact. I guarantee you can use this list to trade away pitchers that are over-performing for long term deep impact while targeting other pitchers that can provide you with more short-term value. Use the comments section below and I’ll scold or virtual high-five your trade offers.Please, blog, may I have some more?