It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto - I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister - I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford - Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun - Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill - Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene - Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla - Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton - I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier - Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana - Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla - If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn - Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.

On each Sunday (it was Friday, but it is what it is, so deal) we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

QUESTION:

I’m in a 10 team 5×5 league with a 1400 inning max for pitchers. I am currently in second, but sitting next to last in RBI’s and K’s. I’m hoping Howard will step up and give me some RBI’s soon. Someone is shopping Verlander right now. I need to get rid of some offensive players and pick up more pitchers, but the waiver wire is pretty sad. Do you have any suggestions?

SP Peavy, Jake (SD)
SP Zambrano, Carlos (CHN)
SP Wood, Kerry (CHN)
SP Vazquez, Javier (CHA)
SP Volquez, Edison (CIN)
RP Rauch, Jon (WAS)
RP Wilson, C.J. (TEX)
RP Percival, Troy (TB)
P Wellemeyer, Todd (STL)
Bn Wolf, Randy (SD)

C Doumit, Ryan (PIT)
C Soto, Geovany (CHN)
1B Howard, Ryan (PHI)
2B Upton, B.J. (TB)
3B Gordon, Alex (KC)
SS Furcal, Rafael (LAD)
LF Lee, Carlos (HOU)
CF Young, Chris B. (ARI)
RF Quentin, Carlos (CHA)
IF Morneau, Justin (MIN)
OF Figgins, Chone (LAA)
OF Markakis, Nick (BAL)
Util Blalock, Hank (TEX)
Bn Crosby, Bobby (OAK)
Bn Kemp, Matt (LAD)
Bn Young, Michael (TEX)
Bn Young, Delmon (MIN)
DL Westbrook, Jake DL (CLE)
DL Victorino, Shane DL (PHI)
DL Gwynn, Tony (MIL)

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Given you could only use 5 starters, there has to be someone with 7-8 good starters, no?

I’d definitely pick up Verlander. That’s going to require a big chip. My recommendation is Furcal. I’m a big fan of his this year but 1) you’ve got Michael Young and 2) you’ve got more than enough speed. The difference b/w Furcal and Young when you factor out speed isn’t very big.

You may want to scan the rest of the teams to see who is weak in speed and strong in SP. Furcal should fetch a good 2nd tier starter. You may also want to consider another power bat, if you can’t find a starter to plug in at OF or UTIL. If you could get the same deal for Figgins or Victorino, I’d do that instead (I like Furcal better than those two.)

QUESTION:

I could really use some help with one of my teams. It’s my highest stakes team and probably my most disappointing to date. I feel a bit outclassed to be honest. It’s a 13 team, 5×5 mixed non-keeper with OBP instead of BA.

TEAM’S JPG

Obviously my most pressing needs are SB and SV. I could use runs too but that’s usually a byproduct of the steals. My starting pitching is kind of thin/injured after trading Snell for Valverde (thanks for the advice on that by the way. i’m feeling good about Valverde’s last 2 outings, and finally a 1-2-3 yesterday), so I’m thinking of trading a little power or obp for steals/runs.

Anyway, I’ve been offered two trades from the same guy. Granderson for C.Pena and Broxton, or Cano for C.Pena. Pena’s value obviously goes up a bunch in this league, as he goes from a likely BA killer, to a neutral OBP. I like the cano deal but it doesn’t solve my problems. I think if I got Granderson, I’d be content with my speed situation, but I really hate moving broxton. He has no one else I really want other than Percival and Wood, which he wants too much for. I might be able to add Maine for Percival but I don’t even want to do that, do I?

Who are some good targets for me to go after? And who do you think are good players for me to trade away? Having Wheeler and Qualls (and Reyes and Pena are FA), I’d feel a lot more comfortable getting Percival or Lyon than someone like Wood, as someone owns Marmol.

Anyway, sorry that was long winded, but any advice at all would be much appreciated. I’m not panicking, especially with my #1 pick struggling, but I definitely want to address my needs. Thanks, guys.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I’m not a huge fan of Granderson and don’t think he’ll ever be a major SB contributor (maybe 30?) as he doesn’t have that instinct. Kinda like Bernie Williams. But Carlos Pena and Broxton isn’t that big of a price given that OFs are more valuable than 1B. I’d prefer to hold tight and see how the Flyin’ Hawaiian recovers….

Cano for C. Pena doesn’t help you on speed but would definitely help upgrade the offense you get out of MI. Based on preseason Point Shares, I’ve got Cano being more valuable than Cano but that is based on AVG vs. OBP. I’d say it’s a toss-up. Remember that even if you’re not particularly weak in categories, any opportunity to improve nets you points.

I wouldn’t sweat saves. Looks like based on the other team totals that you’re not the only one scrounging. Valverde would help. Maybe Corpas comes around. Hopefully you snag another anointed closer. You can always make a trade in July/August if it isn’t working out.

Otherwise, I think your team is in pretty good shape. Can’t think of anyone I’d particularly target for acquisition or trading. But any trade that makes you stronger helps…

Joe Borowski landed on the DL, but he’s not coming back any time soon. He was put on the DL because he couldn’t throw a ball faster than 83 MPH. Do you think that’s going to change with some R & R?  Rafael Soriano is on the DL, Peter Moylan is on the DL, so Manny Acosta takes over the closer role. I said yesterday, Manny Acosta could be the closer for a while. So what else is going on in the world of major league closers and some fantasy baseball implications? Let’s take a look:

Trevor Hoffman - Last week, I advised you trade for him and I’m saying the same now. Maybe I’ll say more of the same next week. Oh, happy day!

Jose Valverde - He was not good before last year. Not sure what you can get for him, but I would explore trade options sooner rather than later. I picked up Brocail two days ago where I had room.

Francisco Rodriguez - Shields is the setup man, but I’m not fielding him on any team right now. I trust K-Rod to stay relatively healthy.

Rafael Betancourt - The closer for right now in Borowski’s stead. I get the sneaky suspicion that Rafael Perez and/or Masahide Kobayashi are going to have a say in this. I think they all need to be fielded in AL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues.

Takashi Saito - Broxton could be the closer right now, but Torre’s not making this switch, at least not unless Saito completely breaks down, which I don’t see happening. I mean, for Christmas sake, Torre played Nomar immediately.

Huston Street - He’s on a team that should lose 90 to 100 games and he’s more injury-prone than Nordberg. You make the call!

Chad Cordero - Jon Rauch will have more saves than Cordero by the end of the year.

Brian Wilson - Saves are saves but Wilson is almost not worth the hassle. I’d try and move him if anyone’s reading Karabell’s usual vomit, where he called Wilson a great Buy Low candidate. Unless his definition of Buy Low is a shaky closer that walks as many as he strikes out. Then he’s right on.

Brad Lidge - Now for an actual Buy Low guy. Who are the Phillies turning to if Lidge fails? Brett Myers again? Tom Gordon? Will the Phillies win close to 90 games? They can. Does Brad Lidge still strike out a ton? Sure does. Are people absolutely terrified he’s going to implode at any second? Yup, they are. Will he? I don’t think so. If he stays healthy, he can get 40 saves with excellent strikeout numbers. As Abba once sang, “Gonna do my very best and it ain’t no lie… If you put me to the test, if you let me try…Take a chance on me…” (Sorry if you now can’t get that out of your head.)

B.J. Ryan - BJ will have you down on your knees. (hehe) He’s not safe, but you knew that. Unfortunately, the people behind him have jumbled themselves as who a clear cut heir apparent might be. At this point, if BJ can’t close a game, if could be anyone from Frasor to Accardo to Wolfe to Downs. I kinda hope BJ can pull it together so I don’t have to pick up any of those other schmohawks.

George Sherrill - Now has six saves. I’d still trade him if I got the right offer.

Brandon Lyon - Not sure if there’s a closer I trust less right now. I even picked up Qualls in one deep league.

Hello, Joe all the way from Ireland here, yes believe it or not there are fantasy baseball addicts in this part of the world too, well there’s one anyway!

I just came across your site the other day and find it to be excellent. So i thought i’d share my 14-team mixed league team with you and get your thoughts, on possible moves i should make and so on.

C: Chris Snyder
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, 6th round
2B: Brian Roberts, 3rd round (thinking of trading him)
3B: Miguel Cabrera, 1st
SS: Peralta, 14th
OF: Carlos Lee, 2nd
OF: Hart, 5th
OF: Swisher, 7th
Util: Kemp, 8th
Bnch: Kent, 17th
Bnch: Votto, 20th
Bnch: Carlos Gomez, FA
Bnch: Eugenio Velez, FA
DL: Wily Mo Pena, FA
SP: CC Sabathia, 4th
SP: Rich Hill, 9th
SP: Francisco Liriano, 10th
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, 12th
SP: Manny Parra, FA
SP: Hiroki Kuroda, 21st round
CL: Matt Capps, 11th
CL: BJ Ryan (took a risk and dealt Tim Hudson for him)
RP: Heath Bell, 16th
————-

Hey Joe -
Thanks for writing in. Nice to know fantasy baseball has found its way across the pond. It’s got to be better than fantasy cricket, right?

It’s always tough to judge a roster without seeing the rest of the field. Assuming a 5×5 league, I’d say you’ve got a slightly above average team with potential for very good. I like your offense - particularly for HR/RBI. You get solid SBs out of your team without sacrificing power. While I don’t like Roberts as a 3rd round pick, I think you have to hold onto him given Hart/Kemp can’t carry your team and you don’t have enough offensive slots to carry the crappy peripheral stats of Gomez and Velez.

I’m more concerned on your pitching. Sabathia and Hill should provide solid 4 category stats. Hudson would’ve been an ok 3rd starter as Wang and Kuroda project very low on Ks (maybe 200K b/w the two) so it’s tough carrying both. Liriano/Parra are both high reward/high risk. You’re obviously weak in saves but, in a 14 team league, 2 closers should get you average points. I’d hope for the best with BJ and jump on any potential closer that’s on the FA/waiver wire. Really like Heath Bell to help provide ERA/WHIP/K help and a Save darkhorse.

I’d consider trading for another starter. Someone who projects as safer than Liriano/Parra and better on Ks than Wang or Kuroda. This tier would include AJ Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Dustin McGowan, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, John Maine, James Shields, Matt Cain, Oliver Perez, and Derek Lowe. Trouble is, there’s not much you can offer. Perhaps someone who is poor in speed will bite on Wang/Kuroda and Gomez/Velez? Maybe someone low on Ks will bite on the upside of Liriano? Assuming no, I’d look to drop 1-2 hitters (definitely Kent, Gomez or Velez) on your bench for middle relievers who you can rotate in to bulk up on Ks. Guys like Betancourt, Accardo, Rauch, Moylan, Broxton, Fuentes, Marmol, Benoit, Turnbow, Tony Pena and Heilman. No point betting on another risky starter.

Hope this helps and that Irish luck carries over to fantasy baseball…

Rudy

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.