Fantasy Baseball Advice

I was like, “Yo, Grey, you gotta do a Closer Look, like, last week so everyone knows what is the haps on closers!”  Then I was like, “After the trading deadline, which I went over in Toto, not a whole lot changes.”  Then I was like, “What is “the haps?”  The happenings?  Then say that.  And ‘in Toto?’  Are you talking in code for ‘in Total Douchebag?’”  It’s a constant struggle with myself to give you the best product, and, when I don’t give you the best product, it’s usually me blabbering about how it’s a constant struggle to give you the best product.  Incredibly, in the last month there’s only been three closer changes.  Capps to Nathan, Bastardo to Madson, which only happened because Madson was briefly injured last month when I did the last Closer Look, and D-ork to the Brewers, making Izzy the closer, which has been well documented on this site, and by ‘this site’ I mean the one you’re reading right now, not the porn window you have open underneath it.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
2. Heath Bell (+3) (Chad Qualls, Ernesto Frieri)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Daniel Bard)
4. Jose Valverde  (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
5. Brian Wilson (+1) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Carlos Marmol (-3) (Sean Marshall)
7. Joel Hanrahan (Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
8. Craig Kimbrel (+3) (Jonny Venters, Scott Linebrink)
9. Francisco Cordero (Aroldis Chapman)
10. Huston Street (Matt Lindstrom)
11. Sergio Santos (+8) (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale)
12. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
13. Leo Nunez (Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn)
14. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez)
15. Andrew Bailey (+3) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
16. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
17. Joe Nathan (+5) (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins)
18. Drew Storen (-2) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
19. Ryan Madson (+11) (Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo) 
20. Joakim Soria (Aaron Crow)
21. Brandon League (+2) (Jamey Wright)
22. Jordan Walden (+2) (Scott Downs, Fernando Rodney)
23. Fernando Salas (+3) (Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Neftali Feliz (-3) (Mike Adams, Koji Uehara)
25. Chris Perez (-17) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
26. Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jim Johnson, Mike Gonzalez)
27. Mark Melancon (Wilton Lopez)
28. Javy Guerra (+1) (Hong-Chih Kuo, Matt Guerrier) 
29. Jason Isringhausen (-15) (Bobby Parnell, Pedro Beato)
30. Jon Rauch (-1) (Frank Francisco, The Ghost of the Seagull that Dave Winfield Killed)

As it turns out, the MLB trade deadline was much ado about nothing, at least in the world of the Bottom of the 9th. Heath Bell remains with the Padres as the closer, while Mike Adams was dealt to a new team, but not to close. Koji Uehara looked like the best reliever in Baltimore all year (and it wasn’t even close); now, he may be third in line for saves with his new team.

Other trade candidates from the closer ranks included Drew Storen, Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Huston Street, Leo Nunez, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Isringhausen and Kevin Gregg, but none of them found themselves cleaning out their respective lockers over trade deadline weekend.

That basically means I don’t have nearly the amount of “new” analysis in this edition of the Bottom of the 9th as I could have had. Good thing it’s a free article, right? Let’s examine the three most likely teams to experience closer change between now and the end of the season.

Texas Rangers

This was one team in on literally every reliever over the last week of July. They were reportedly putting together packages for Lee Smith and Dennis Eckersley before they swung trades with Baltimore and San Diego to land the best pitcher on both teams. Sorry, Mat Latos fans, it’s true. The Rangers paid a hefty price to bolster the bullpen, but they’re much better equipped to fight their East Coast rivals come October.

Of course, they’ll likely want to try one of their shiny, new toys in the closer role before the playoffs, especially if Neftali Feliz stops wishing you a Merry Christmas. He’s blown two of his last four save opportunities, raising his ERA from 2.89 on July 25 to 3.64 on August 6. The owner of a 71:18 K:BB ratio over 69.1 innings last season, Feliz has walked 20 batters in 42 innings while only recording 29 strikeouts this year. The Rangers can’t afford to be too patient with him.

With Adams in tow at least one more year, it would only make sense to shift Feliz to the starting rotation at the beginning of next season. If he struggles over the next few weeks, Feliz could find himself out of the Bottom of the 9th for good.  Adams has more value than Uehara at this point, but both deserved to be owned, just in case.

Toronto Blue Jays

As has been the case all year with the Blue Jays, there’s no question a change gon’ come, but when, and with whom? Jon Rauch is back in the closing role, and though he’s recorded saves in three of his last four apperances, he’s only managed one scoreless outing in his last five games. His ERA is up to 4.53 and rising, and he’s allowed three long balls in his most recent five-game stretch.

As always, Frank Francisco is the man to own should Rauch be stripped of closing duties. He hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire this year either, with just 10 of 14 save chances successfully converted, but he has been very good as a setup man since losing the job in mid-July. However, he’s a free agent at the end of the year, as is Rauch. I seriously doubt the Blue Jays want to endure either headache again.

However, it does make sense for the Blue Jays to give Casey Janssen a chance as the team’s closer while they play out the rest of the season. Almost 30, Janssen has one more year of arbitration before he’s due to hit free agency, and the team could build quite a bit of trade value for him should he excel as the Blue Jays closer. In 33.2 innings this year, Janssen has a 2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 31 Ks and nine BBs. Compared to Franraucho, he’s positively Eck-ian. AL-only owners should already have Janssen on their team, and dynasty leaguers should feel free to grab him now in case he winds up the closer in 2012. You never know.

New York Mets

The Mets did the smart thing (hey, who knew?) when they dealt Francisco Rodriguez well in advance of the trading deadline. Relief options were plentiful at the end of June, but few teams were able to work out trades for market relievers. The Mets, obviously, didn’t have that problem.

In the wake of the trade, they turned to veteran and 293-save man Jason Isringhausen to close. Izzy responded by rattling off five consecutive saves and a win in six appearances heading into August. This month has not been kind to the man on a quest for 300 saves, as he allowed five runs in two appearances (both losses and one a blown save) at the beginning of the month. The Mets have nothing to lose by keeping him in the role for now, but once he hits the magic number, they need to seriously consider turning to the presumed future at the position.

Bobby Parnell sure hasn’t been making it easy for the Mets to put him in the ninth, though. Five of his last 10 appearances in July featured at least one earned run credited to the fire-baller, with his ERA rising from 3.15 to 3.86 over the course of the month. He is, however, under team control through 2015, while Isringhausen could call it a career at the end of the season. No time like the present to get your feet wet in the Bottom of the 9th; once Izzy has a 300 on his resume, expect Parnell to get the call, and not from Andy Samberg.

The trade rumor mill is in full gear with less than a week until the trading deadline, so you’d probably expect this article to be all about trade candidates that could leave bullpen roles in flux. Hooray for met expectations!

Heath Bell – He’s the big dog on the trade market now, not just with regard to relief pitching but in general as well. He’s been linked to every team this side of the Springfield Isotopes. A list: Cardinals, Angels, Phillies, Rangers, Braves, Blue Jays, Reds, Pirates, White Sox, Yankees. My money is on the Rangers winning the sweepstakes, which would land Mike Adams in the closing role, where he would be among the league’s elite.

Mike Adams – Teams are also inquiring over Adams, a reliever the Padres are hesitant to move. However, can you imagine how well-stocked the Padres’ farm system would be if they decide to move both?  It’s not like the relief cupboard would be bare, either; Luke Gregerson, Chad Qualls, Josh Spence and Ernesto Frieri have all had some degree of success so far. I could see them getting Jurickson Profar and/or Martin Perez from the Rangers, considering Bell brings along with him the promise of draft picks for the acquiring team. Adams himself should net a top prospect. I do think Adams will ultimately be a Padre on August 1, though. If both are dealt, Gregerson will likely become closer.

Leo Nunez – The Marlins are taking calls on offers for Nunez, who still has one year of arbitration remaining. If Florida can get a good pitching prospect for him, they’ll bite. The Phillies have inquired about the Marlins closer, while any of the teams listed in the Bell paragraph could be in depending on the price. Edward Mujica would move into the closing role with a trade, but I’d say Nunez isn’t traded this year. If the Marlins don’t contend next year in their new park, they can always ship him away for a good prospect at the 2012 deadline.

Huston Street – Street would obviously be one of the better arms on the market, though he could very well also be considered the most injury prone. Any team trading for Street will have to commit at least $8 million after this season (a $7.5 million 2012 salary plus a $500,000 option buyout). No word on the teams involved, but we can assume the Rangers, Phillies and Cardinals have all touched base. The Yankees should be in the mix as well, as always. Matt Lindstrom would probably close in the event of a Street trade.

Jason Isringhausen – Izzy has come into the closing role as predicted after the K-Rod trade. He’s performed admirably in his short time with the job, collecting a win and two saves in his first three games as closer while allowing no runs in four innings. His price wouldn’t be nearly as prohibitive as anyone listed above, so he’d make for a nice consolation prize for teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Reds. However, the Mets are talking him up as a “mentor” to Bobby Parnell, who would close if Izzy is shipped off, as well as the other Mets relievers. I call BS on the posturing move and say Izzy is a Cardinal again by this time next week.

Brandon League – The Mariners have experienced one of their worst swoons in recent memory, going from AL West contenders to trading-deadline sellers in the span of about two weeks. As a result, teams are inquiring about Brandon League, who’s filled David Aardsma’s shoes quite well. His quality season should make his salary rise significantly in his final year of arbitration, and that could spurn the Mariners to make a move. Throw League’s name in as a possibility to all the teams in the Bell post, and AL-only fantasy leagues should already be checking on the status of David Pauley, who should close if League is traded.

Andrew Bailey – He’s one of the better relievers that could be traded this week, though the probability of a trade is so low that I’m only including him as an obligation. The Rangers would love to have him, while the A’s would (I’m sure) love to have multiple top prospects. Don’t expect a deal to go down. Grant Balfour or Brian Fuentes could close after a trade, and I’m leaning toward the A’s going Dirty in the five percent chance someone gives the farm for Bailey.

Joakim Soria – Here’s another closer whom teams like the Yankees and Phillies have called about but who’s not getting traded. How do I know? The Royals have annouced they’ll move Aaron Crow into the rotation next year, and he’d be about the only person they could have long-term hopes of excelling in the role right now.

Matt Thornton – Remember him? The Cardinals and White Sox are discussing a trade involving Colby Rasmus, and Thornton would be a prime candidate to make the trip to the National League in the event of such a trade. Fernando Salas has been great this season, but Thornton has three years of elite stats and could move into the role should Salas falter during the stretch run. The way Tony LaRussa has juggled closers this year, you almost think he’d feel obligated to get Thornton in the role for a week or two.

Quick hits

Brad Lidge is back, though it’ll be a while before the team thinks about giving him the ball in the ninth… Speaking of the Phillies, Charlie Manuel alluded to Antonio Bastardo keeping the closing job for the long-term, saying he “might be able to do whatever he wants to do with the way he’s been.” Apparently, that excludes closing games, as Ryan Madson went on to get the next few saves. Madson > Bastardo > Lidge right now … J.J. Putz is on the verge of re-joining the Diamondbacks; expect him to earn the job virtually immediately upon return, as manager Kirk Gibson is a proper gentleman that doesn’t play mind games, unlike some people. Kudos to David Hernandez for a quality performance as the closer; you’ll hear more about him in the future … Joe Nathan’s famous again; eat him up … Jon Rauch is currently the Blue Jays closer despite the team not having any games for him to save. Should an opportunity arise in a close game, expect Rauch and Frank Francisco to hold hands on the mound while attempting to finish the game together. That’s legal, right?

With the All-Star Break in full swing, today seems like the perfect time to examine non-closers that could find themselves in the ninth inning during the second half. The list has to begin with Mike Adams, who sports an elite 1.32 ERA and 0.71 WHIP going into Sunday’s action, with 41 Ks and six walks in 41 innings. Once Heath Bell is traded (and the odds of a Bell trade have to be something like 80 percent), Adams immediately becomes a top-10 closer. He’s likely already taken in competitive leagues, but it’s worth casting a line to his owner to gauge his availability via trade.

Next we go to New York, where Francisco Rodriguez looks like a lock to be traded unless the Mets position themselves for a pennant run in the next few weeks. Jason Isringhausen long looked like the best option to take over the closer role, but he’s struggled a bit lately, giving up runs in four of his last 10 appearances and striking out none while walking three in his last five games (over 4.1 innings). Meanwhile, Bobby Parnell has a 30:9 K:BB ratio through 24.2 innings to go with a 2.92 ERA. However, the Mets can use Parnell for more than an inning at a time if need be, as they have in four of his last 11 appearances. They don’t have that luxury with Isringhausen, which may make Izzy the closer by default. Of course, he’s a possible trade candidate as well, making Parnell a sneaky pickup before the league starts the July trading season.

Matt Capps appeared to be destined for the fantasy wastelands after he failed to go a full inning in each of his first three games in July, giving up five runs along the way and watching Glen Perkins pick up two saves along the way. Ron Gardenhire elected to stick with Capps in the Twins’ next save opportunity, and Capps came through with a perfect frame. While Perkins is worth an add in deep leagues, the intriguing name here is Joe Nathan, one-time king of the fantasy closers. After allowing a solo homer in his first game back with the Twins, Nathan has pitched 5.1 scoreless innings over six appearances, striking out six guys and walking none. Expect Nathan to regain the closing role at some point, whether it be by a Capps trade or meltdown.

It’s clear to anyone looking at the stats that Koji Uehara is a better pitcher than Kevin Gregg this year. The Baltimore closer has walked 21 batters in 34.1 innings during his 15 saves, and unlike a guy like Carlos Marmol, Gregg doesn’t balance that walk rate with a good K rate (28 Ks this season). When I look at Uehara’s 51:8 K:BB ratio in 39 innings, I can only think the Orioles are trying to get Gregg as many saves as possible to make him appealing to a potential contender (St. Louis? Philadelphia?). Uehara’s been an effective fantasy pitcher even in the setup role; here’s hoping he can tack on some second half saves.

After a rough patch early in the season, Joakim Soria took a brief respite from the closing gig, and because it happened to come during a time where the Royals couldn’t buy a save opp, he regained the role before anyone could establish themselves as a potential long-term option should Soria be traded. He makes sense in Philadelphia, where injuries have crippled the bullpen, and St. Louis, where ineffectiveness struck until Fernando Salas gained the job. Aaron Crow was named the closer back when Soria took his break from the role, and he had been in the middle of a stellar season until his last two games, when his ERA raised from 1.36 to 2.13. Expect him to become the closer in the event of a Mexcommunication.

Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch have been playing ping-pong with the Toronto closing job all season, and neither has acted like he wants to be in the ninth inning once he gets there. Rauch has converted just seven of 10 save opportunities while picking up three wins and three losses, and his 4.34 ERA only looks solid when compared to that of Frank Frank, who’s 1-4 with 10 saves in 14 chances and a 5.92 ERA. The Jays are clearly having bullpen issues, but they have another former closer toiling away in the middle innings that actually is having a solid season. Octavio Dotel has managed a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 25.2 innings while striking out 28 batters, posting a .191 BAA along the way. By comparison, Rauch’s BAA is .250, and Francisco’s is .301. Why isn’t Dotel closing?

Quick Hits

J.J. Putz will regain his closing job when healthy (should be within the first week back from the break), but David Hernandez has been an excellent replacement, rattling off five straight saves in July while allowing no hits and just one walk with six strikeouts. Keep Hernandez in mind should Putz look less than 100 percent when he returns … Mark Melancon has struggled over the last few weeks, raising his ERA from 1.62 on Father’s Day to 3.15 after the first week of July. He’s blown his only save opportunity in that timeframe, as the Astros are truly a team that struggles to find save opps. Wilton Lopez probably would have the job already if he was impressing (he’s not), but he has been pretty solid in July. I don’t forsee a change coming, but in Houston, does it matter? … Like the Astros, the Dodgers have had problems finding save opps, meaning Javy Guerra’s Friday save was his (and the team’s) first since Father’s Day. Guerra is still the closer for now — don’t be disconcerted by his lack of saves for your fantasy team. Kenley Jansen, by the by, has looked excellent (minus a little control issues) since returning to the Dodgers on June 18. Speculators may want to strike.

Ryan Madson hit the DL and some Bastardo took over, Broxton is a bastardo and Guerra is getting saves since Kuo can’t watch Lifetime without crying — assuming there are Dodger saves, Rauch was named the closer and Frank² started getting all the saves, Lyon is out for the season and Melancon looks terrible, La Russa changed closers three times since you started reading this run-on sentence, Jordan Walden has been taking pointers from Fernando Rodney and Kevin Gregg actually moved up the ranks.  Brain Freezes, your saves are cheap, but your headaches are senseless.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (+3) (David Robertson, Luis Ayala)
2. Jose Valverde (+3) (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
3. Carlos Marmol (-2) (Sean Marshall)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (-2) (Daniel Bard)
5. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Ernesto Frieri)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Brian Wilson (+5) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+8) (Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
8. Chris Perez (+1) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
9. Francisco Cordero (+3) (Nick Masset)
10. Huston Street (Matt Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt)
11. Craig Kimbrel (-5) (Jonny Venters, George Sherrill)
12. John Axford (+1) (Kameron Loe)
13. Leo Nunez (+1) (Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn)
14. Francisco Rodriguez (-6) (Jason Isringhausen, Pedro Beato)
15. J.J. Putz (-8) (David Hernandez)
16. Drew Storen (+2) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
17. Kyle Farnsworth (-1) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
18. Andrew Bailey (+5) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
19. Sergio Santos (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale, Jesse Crain)
20. Joakim Soria (+10) (Aaron Crow)
21. Neftali Feliz (-1) (Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Capps (+5) (Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett)
23. Kevin Gregg (+2) (Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez)
24. Brandon League (+2) (Jamey Wright, David Pauley)
25. Jordan Walden (-4) (Scott Downs)
26. Fernando Salas (-4) (Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez)
27. Mark Melancon (-3) (Wilton Lopez)
28. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor)
29. Javy Guerra (Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen)
30. Antonio Bastardo (-12) (Ryan Madson, Michael Stutes, Brad Lidge, Battery Throwing Fan)