Fantasy Baseball Advice

In the Bottom of the 9th, we talk about the ever-changing landscape of baseball’s ninth inning, who’s in, who’s out and who’s pitching like they never want to close again, or “Frankling it.”  We usually look for the next man up in our quest to SAGNOF a fantasy championship. Fernando Salas? Check. Sergio Santos? Give him here. The list goes on.

This time around, however, the notable names ascending to the closer throne are guys we already know: the injured, the fallen, the disposed and disabled making their (hopefully) triumphant returns. Smart owners will check the wire and make sure impatient owners didn’t let these people go.

The Oakland A’s had been making due with a Dirty Fuentes, but that’s changed now that Andrew Bailey is back from the disabled list. Word was that Bailey would be eased back into the closer role, and with the A’s Moneyballing losses in 12 of their last 13, the changing of the guard may have escaped notice. Friday, in the A’s lone June win to date, the A’s entered the ninth inning down 5-3 only to score four runs off suddenly shaky stopper Sergio Santos. Bailey then made his triumphant return to the bottom of the ninth, getting three quick outs for his first save of the season. Bailey is the guy to own in Oakland, while all other A’s relievers are expendable.

After blowing back to back save opportunities at the end of May, the Mex-Factor was removed from the ninth inning in favor of relief wunderkind Aaron Crow. However, we effectively were counting Crow’s save opps on no hands, as aside from two walk off wins, the Royals put losses on the board throughout the beginning of June. By the time an opportunity to save the game came around on June 9, the Mex-communicator was the guy getting the job done, with Crow mopping up the eighth inning. I’m Too Mexy For My Shirt converted another save the following day, so we’re back to the status quo in Kansas City.

In Toronto, we correctly predicted Frank Francisco (a.k.a. “Frank Frank”) would be re-installed as the closer. Others argued it shouldn’t happen. Turns out we were all right. After a nice run of saves at the beginning of May, Frank Frank hasn’t successfully converted an opportunity in nearly a month, earning two blown saves and three losses since May 19. Jon Rauch has two saves to his credit over that timeframe, while Octavio Dotel and Casey Janssen each have contributed one. This isn’t a full-blown committee — Rauch has been dealing with a lat injury, giving Janssen the chance to swoop in and snipe a save. Frank Frank should be benched in larger leagues, while waiver wires need to be scanned for Rauch.

Mark Melancon has been excellent in the closer role, converting six of seven save opportunities while Brandon Lyon was out and maintaing an ERA in the mid-1.00s. However, since the Astros are the Astros, they likely want Lyon eventually closing again. In his first game back, Lyon allowed a solo homer in a blowout loss; his second time around, he came into the 10th inning of a 2-2 game and allowed four base runners without recording an out. All the runners would eventually come around to score. Melancon had pitched a scoreless ninth. Houston should quickly realize that Melancon needs to remain in the ninth inning, and I’ll still take the under on my “10 Saves for Lyon” line.

Quick Hits

Kevin Gregg blew a save opportunity on June 11, and a comparison between his and Koji Uehara’s stats this season indicates that a role switch is just a matter of time. It’s not that Gregg has been awful, but Uehara is clearly the better pitcher.

J.J. Putz has blown two of his last three opportunities in Arizona. He’s still very safe, but deep leaguers will want to own David Hernandez in case an injury looms.

Craig Kimbrel is still the closer in Atlanta, but Johnny Venters has picked up the team’s last two saves. Don’t expect a role switch this season, though with Venters’ eye-popping stats (40.2 IP, 2 ER, 43 K), he deserves to be owned worldwide in fantasy leagues regardless.

Sergio Santos has went from untouchable to shaky, giving up eight runs in his last three appearances after posting 22 scoreless outings in his first 23 appearances this season. He buckled down for the save in his most recent game and has a solid grasp on the closer role, but speculators should be on Matt Thornton watch.

Leo Nunez has been bothering with back issues, allowing Steve Cishek to record a save in his ninth major-league appearance. Nunez is expected back any day now, so Cishek doesn’t have any long-term value. Nunez owners wanting to handcuff their closer though now know who’s next man up.

Scott Elbert is the latest name to join the parade of Dodger save candidates, earning a one-out save on Sunday. He’s not worth owning in fantasy, as matchup-based save opps are few and far between. Interestingly, Blake Hawksworth started the ninth inning. I wouldn’t bother with any of the Dodger relievers — Elbert’s one-out save was the Dodgers’ only save in the first two weeks of June.

A stomach bug kept Kyle Farnsworth out of action Sunday, giving J.P. Howell an easy save opportunity. Considering Howell has a 10.50 ERA, you shouldn’t be rushing out to add him. I wouldn’t expect Howell to earn the closing job even if something serious were to happen to Farnsworth, who remains the only Tampa Bay reliever worth owning in mixed leagues.

The questions have started about Heath Bell getting traded.  I think there’s a good chance it happens.  Well, Hair Lip, there goes his value! Not so fast, random italicized voice.  I guess you have all the answers! Actually, I have questions.  What if he’s traded to the Cards or Angels?  What if Huston Street gets hurt and the Rockies grab Bell?  What if the Mariners gain a few games on the Rangers and become buyers?  What if your boss replaces you with a coyote that was raised by humans and can flip burgers better than you?  Do you see what I’m saying here?  Don’t sell Bell short because of trade rumors.  Lots of things can happen. Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (+2) (Daniel Bard)
3. Heath Bell (-2) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Chad Qualls)
4. Mariano Rivera (-1) (Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
6. Craig Kimbrel (+1) (Jonny Venters, George Sherrill)
7. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Juan Gutierrez)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (Jason Isringhausen, Bobby Parnell)
9. Chris Perez (+1) (Tony Sipp, Chad Durbin, Rafael Perez)
10. Huston Street (+1) (Matt Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt)
11. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Nick Masset)
13. John Axford (+1) (Kameron Loe)
14. Leo Nunez (+1) (Clay Hensley, Edward Mujica)
15. Joel Hanrahan (+1) (Jose Veras, Evan Meek)
16. Kyle Farnsworth (+5) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
17. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
18. Ryan Madson (+10) (Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, Brad Lidge)
19. Sergio Santos (+9) (Chris Sale, Jesse Crain, Matt Thornton)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Neftali Feliz (+10) (Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes)
21. Jordan Walden (-3) (Fernando Rodney, Scott Downs)
22. Fernando Salas (+4) (Eduardo Sanchez, Jason Motte, Ryan Franklin)
23. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
24. Mark Melancon (-4) (Wilton Lopez, Brandon Lyon)
25. Kevin Gregg (-3) (Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez)
26. Brandon League (-3) (Jamey Wright, David Aardsma)
27. Matt Capps (-3) (Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett, Joe Nathan)
28. Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch/Octavio Dotel (-3) (Jason Frasor)
29. Matt Guerrier/Javy Guerra/Rubby de la Rosa (-2) (Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo)
30. Aaron Crow (-25) (Joakim Soria, The Winner of a Radio Call-In Contest)

Remember a little while ago (say, a month) when I told you that if Ryan Madson continued to pitch well, he’d remain the closer upon Jose Contreras’ return? Remember how the comment section called me out about it? Well, Contreras has returned, and Madson’s still the closer. Sometimes you gotta go with your gut.

(By the way, resist the overwhelming urge to stroll through the archives and build an itemized list of all my swings and misses. I’m sure there’s plenty.)

There’s even been indication by manager Charlie Manuel that Madson may remain the closer once Brad Lidge comes off the DL. Could it happen? I’m not going to press my luck, but Madson clearly has plenty of fantasy value for now. Smart owners may want to sell now so as to get plenty of return. Dumb owners should continue hanging on to Ryan Franklin (seriously guys, 29 percent owned in Yahoo leagues?).

In other “nanny-nanny-boo-boo” news, Frank Francisco regained the closer role from Jon Rauch as predicted in the same column, but, after recording five saves in May, Francisco seems to have lost his touch, prompting the Blue Jays to turn to the spine-shuddering “closer by committee.” Francisco blew his first two save chances in the committee, which gives him losses in three of his last four appearances. Rauch secured a save on Friday, and he looks like the Jays’ best option right now. Octavio Dotel, stay loose. Save speculators could also give Jason Frasor a look, as he’s posted scoreless outings in nine of his 10 appearances this month as of Sunday.

Don’t look now, but Neftali Feliz has blown three of his last five save opportunities heading into Sunday. While he’s certain to remain the Rangers’ closer with a 1.50 ERA, what’s more disconcerting is the fact that Feliz has issued 14 walks versus nine strikeouts this year, which is a clear departure from the 71:18 K:BB ratio of 2010. He also has a 5.68 FIP and an obscenely lucky BABIP and strand rate. His fastball has gone from dominating to mediocre. Did he come back from his DL stint too early? Save vultures may want to grab Darren Oliver now in case Feliz needs to hit the DL again.

Quick hits

Kevin Gregg has a 1:1 K:BB ratio and a 1.71 WHIP this season while Koji Uehara has struck out 26 in 21.2 innings while issuing just five walks, good for a 0.88 WHIP. Gregg could be one or two blown saves away from losing his job. Uehara is worth owning even as a setup man with those numbers … Andrew Bailey is due back any day now (in fact, by publication he may already have been activated). Grant Balfour should still carry value for the next week or two, but Bailey should be activated in fantasy leagues immediately … We chronicled Brandon League’s horrible stretch in our last talk, and he’s rebounded nicely. The Mariners aren’t going to bother giving any other relievers a look; League’s the guy.

Mark Melancon has done a solid job with the closer role thus far, picking up two saves in the Toronto series last week. He’s still only 41 percent owned, and that number should be higher … I wouldn’t mess with the Dodger bullpen right now. The top two options are hurt, and the third option is out with a mind, as Al Michaels would say. That leaves about five guys in the mix for saves. Pass … Remember that Francisco Rodriguez and Heath Bell are trade candidates. With June around the corner, you may not want to wait much longer to ship them away in your fantasy leagues.

Coming into the 2011 season, Ryan Franklin looked to be one of the most reliable relievers around. He wasn’t elite by any means, but at least we knew he was locked into his closing gig. That was more than we could say for about a third of the league, right? Even though he wasn’t considered a top-tier guy, Franklin still just wrapped up a season in which he had a 6-2 record, 1.03 WHIP, 27 saves and two blown saves. When he blew his first save of the season on Opening Day, it seemed like an innocent blip on the radar.

Did I say blip? I meant Red October. After one textbook save six days after his first blown save, Franklin completely fell apart, submarining fantasy teams by blowing his next three save opportunities and getting yanked from the role. Even though Jason Motte had been the vice closer in St. Louis for a while, The Bottom of the 9th pointed you towards Mitchell Boggs in the middle of the meltdown, and he would soon ascend to the closer throne.

Boggs rattled off three straight saves between April 20th and 24th, blew his next opportunity and found himself packing up his desk and moving out of the closer position, as well. It looked like a dumb move at the time, but give credit to Tony LaRussa, as Boggs has made five appearances in middle relief in the month of May and only managed scoreless outings twice.

Eduardo Sanchez picked up the next save, though he did it by allowing two runs to score in what had been a three-run game. That was two too many, and Fernando Salas chalked up the next two save opportunities. LaRussa must not have liked that second one, because Salas would next throw the seventh inning of a tie game a few days later, and then watch Sanchez pick up a save the following day. He recorded a loss the next day in a non-save situation, and by this point you would have thought that got him banished to the fifth inning, but he pitched a third consecutive day and picked up another save. Was this the light at the end of the tunnel? It appeared so, for about a week.

After Sanchez and Salas each picked up one more save, Sanchez officially recorded his first blown save of the season on Friday the 13th by allowing one run on two hits and a walk in Cincinnati. Pitching coach Dave Duncan placed a horse’s head in Sanchez’s bed that night.

O.K., now you have the entire back story (and chances are you’ve rostered one of these clowns at some point of the season, so I apologize for the trip down Memory Lane), let’s figure out who’s closing. Salas didn’t actually get a chance to blow a save yet, so he’s the de facto closer. All bets are off the first time he isn’t perfect, though. Mitchell Boggs would likely get the next chance to close should Salas blow a save, allow a run, have a bad bullpen session or look Duncan directly in the eye. Own Salas, own Boggs too if you have room and pick up Lee Smith as well, just in case.

Seattle: Generally when a closer records losses in four straight appearances while blowing three straight saves, you’d call it kind of a bad week. But Brandon League actually became more locked in as the Seattle closer over the course of the week, as news of David Aardsma’s recovery took a turn for the worse. Now it appears he’ll miss at least six weeks with a strained ulnar collateral ligament, and though Tommy John surgery appears like it’ll be avoided, any sentence involving the words “Tommy John surgery” is not promising. League, who’s allowed eight runs in three innings over the four-game stretch, is still worth owning in fantasy leagues, though I hope you benched him last week for whatever reason. His ERA went fro 2.08 to 7.31 in the four-game span, but he’s still the leader in the clubhouse for Mariners MVP. I kid.

Los Angeles: Normally a strikeout machine, Jonathan Broxton looked like a closer that was off his game over the first month of the season. Doctors discovered a bone spur in his pitching elbow, so the Dodgers sent the struggling closer to the DL. In past years this occurence would mean Hong-Chih Kuo would step into the ninth inning and become one of the top closers in the league, but he ain’t quite right either. Kuo surrendered four runs while recording just one out in his first appearance off the DL on May 1. Three solid efforts later, Kuo gave up a run on May 9 before hitting the DL with anxiety disorder. No one knows when he’ll rejoin the team, and there’s a small chance it will never happen. That puts Vicente Padilla, who has been a very capable starter over the last few years, in the ninth inning. He’s been a little spotty in his first week as the closer, but he now has three saves (and no blown saves) on the season. Pick him up in all leagues, as he shouldn’t be challenged for the role for at least six weeks (Broxton’s estimated return date).

Houston: In another Bottom of the 9th special, we called Mark Melancon the best long-term closing option in Houston while predicting Brandon Lyon wouldn’t reach 10 saves. Here we are on May 16th, and Lyon has four saves, while Melancon is close to being named the closer (nothing official has happened yet, as the Astros understandably don’t carry a lead to the ninth inning too often). I admit that I didn’t see it happening this quickly for Melancon, but Lyon’s trip to the DL paired with Wilton Lopez’s own injury and mediocrity have the youngster looking like the Astros’ best option right now. Will Melancon get the closing role? Is Lopez ready to put up a fight? Will Lyon eventually return to the ninth inning and make a run at topping ten saves? I’d bet on the first two before the last of those questions.

Quick hits

Frank Francisco predictably jumped into the closer gig in Toronto after one Jon Rauch misstep … Sergio Santos hasn’t allowed a run in 18 innings this season. Remember when owners were falling over each other to draft Matt Thornton and Chris Sale? … Ryan Madson is a save machine, with four straight conversions in a seven-day stretch last week … Drew Storen allowed a run in his first appearance this season before turning in 19 straight scoreless appearances. He’s the top-rated reliever in Yahoo leagues; I’d say he’s locked in. By the way, Mariano Rivera ranks second at the position, followed by Santos, Madson and Jonny Venters. If you had that as your top five relievers in fantasy baseball before the season started, you’re a liar.

Injuries unfortunately play a part of every season, but 2011 seems to be the year of the afflicted closer. Multiple stoppers started the year on the disabled list, and several others joined their counterparts on the DL over the course of April. In fact, one contender has lost both its closer and his replacement, forcing them to go with the guy that caused the GM of the team to say, “Can we necessarily rely on him? I don’t think so,” and the pitching coach to add “What did he do, take a crash course in how to close or something?” Tough room.

Though at 2-0 with two saves and a 0.90 ERA, Ryan Madson is well on his way to getting the last laugh.

Not every team has been as lucky with their fill-in closers, and even with Madson’s success the Phillies cannot wait to have their ‘pen back to full strength.

With so much inaction to talk about, let’s get right to it.

Brad Lidge (60-day DL)

The Phillies transferred Lidge to the 60-day DL over the weekend, but he did start a throwing program this weekend, as well. With doctors telling Lidge his rotator cuff has fully healed, the Albert Pujols batting-practice pitcher can finally begin the road to recovery. Optimistic timetables have him back by early June; realism is thinking the All-Star Break.

In the meantime …

Jose Contreras really took to the closing role for three weeks, racking up five saves while not allowing a run in eight innings. Sadly, his right elbow then remembered it belonged to Jose Contreras, a 40- to 50-year-old former starter. As we said, Madson has done nothing wrong since backing into the job. Should he continue his solid run, Contreras is likely to return to a setup role. He can be dropped in leagues without reserve lists, while Madson is a must-own.

Andrew Bailey (15-day DL)

Bailey hasn’t pitched at all this year, hitting the DL on March 22. An amazing closer when healthy, Bailey’s talent made him worth spending a mid-level closer price to nab even with the injury. He managed to throw 35-plus pitches on Friday after doing the same last Tuesday. While he appears to be making steady progress, the A’s are understandably handling him with kid gloves, so while he looks like a guy that will be back in two weeks time, the team may hold him out an extra week or two just to be perfectly safe.

In the meantime …

Brian Fuentes opened the season by giving up three runs (two earned) on three hits in one inning against Seattle. He then converted five straight save opportunities before another huge blowup — like six runs, three earned — pushed his ERA north of 5.00. He’s been solid since and now has seven saves on the season. Brad Ziegler recorded a save last week after Fuentes blew his chance at it, but the interim closer did add a win. Plan on having Dirty Fuentes on your roster for at least three more weeks.

David Aardsma (15-day DL)

Aardsma has been sidelined all season while recovering from hip surgery, but he looks to be on the verge of coming back. In fact, he started a rehab assignment nearly two weeks ago and has suffered no setbacks down on the farm. So what’s the holdup? The Mariners clearly know they can’t win the AL West crown this year, so the organization has its sights set on bringing Tacoma a championship in Triple-A. That, and it turns out Aardsma might not be very good. His extended stay in Triple-A could also be an indication his arm strength isn’t where it needs to be.

In the meantime …

Brandon League has been perfect in his month with the closer’s role. In fact, you could say that he’s been in a league of his own? See what I did there? With his last name? Fine, I’ll stop. League went seven-for-seven in save chances over the course of April, and only allowed three earned runs in 11 innings of work. Even if Aardsma were to come back tomorrow, League would stay in the closer role until Aardsma proves his arm is back to normal. Cause when you only plan on winning 70 games, you can’t afford to have your closer give any away.

Neftali Feliz (15-day DL)

Let’s shift gears and talk about one of the best closers in the game, shall we? Feliz tallied five saves in eight games of work before hitting the DL with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He seems to think he didn’t need a full 15 days off, but the Rangers decided the extra rest couldn’t hurt and placed him on the disabled list. He threw a bullpen session over the weekend and will be activated on May 6.

In the meantime …

Darren Oliver recorded the first non-Feliz save of the season for the Rangers on April 23 before Arthur Rhodes matched it the next day. Oliver came back a few days later to nab another save. And after May 6, we likely won’t have to talk about either 40-year-old fill-in again this season.

Quick hits

Drew Storen looks like a first-round pick, while Sean Burnett is now yesterday’s news … Tony LaRussa’s next book should be called Three Days in April, as Mitchell Boggs racked up three saves before allowing one run and then making way in the 9th for Fernando Salas, who’s picked up the Cards last two saves; deep-league owners will rush to add Jason Motte and hope the pattern sticks … Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and manager Don Mattingly put Jonathon Broxton through the longest week of his life, playing interview tug-of-war with Broxton’s closer role while Vicente Padilla picked up a rogue save on Wednesday.

Sergio Santos still looks like the closer in Chicago, though the White Sox haven’t given him many opportunities to prove it. The team as a whole has just three saves this season … Joe Nathan turned in another poor effort on Saturday. No word if he’s going to take himself out of the middle innings as well … The Rays optioned Jake McGee to Triple-A so he could work on actually getting hitters out (11 hits and three walks allowed in seven innings). Kyle Farnsworth is a rock-solid stopper right now … Frank Francisco looked excellent on Thursday, closing out his own win after the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth. Three of his four outs in the performance were Ks. Jon Rauch is still serving as the team’s closer, but that won’t last much longer. Add Francisco wherever available.