Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Before we get to that, I want to clear up a potential misconception.  Donkey-corns are not the only closers I’ll draft for my 2009 fantasy team.  I’ll more than happily draft closers from the Brain Freeze category.  Cause, see, I’m a save vulture.  It is what it is.  I’ll take saves from anywhere, except probably from the $12 Salad category.  I think those guys are great.  I just don’t believe in paying for saves.  I said “probably” because at the right draft spot, everyone’s worth looking at it.  Some of these closing jobs aren’t finalized just yet.  That wouldn’t stop me from grabbing both guys if I had room and the price were right.  Just because everyone thinks Brandon Lyon should be the closer doesn’t mean Fernando Rodney has no place on a team until Leyland makes a formal announcement.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?  Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal.  No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate.  These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles.  Why are you following a donkey?  Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him.  Does the donkey talk?  Yes.  Yes, he does talk.  So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn.  The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves.  These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)
7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arrendondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
19. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw.  Brain freeze!  Make it stop!  Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
22. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
26. Huston Street/Manny Corpas, COL (Taylor Buchholz… As soon as the Rockies pick a closer, I’d move the guy up a bit.)
27. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
28. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
29. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Brandon Morrow, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Yes, sometimes I try and make the titles double entrendres just so we get traffic from really bizarre places. Now if I were to mention the Mets are now throwing a Rod and a Putz, our traffic would skew even further. Now if I were to continue to say things like I think the Mets should hire Dick Pole to be their pitching coach, or that Mike Piazza probably wishes he were still catching for the Mets or how I own posters of Antonio Sabato Jr…. Well, you get the idea. Then they read on to find out I’m talking about 2009 fantasy baseball, Kerry Wood and J.J. Putz. Bummer, doodes! Hopefully, we can convert some of our new readers though. I hate to tease Wood and Putz then send people away, um, empty-handed. So with the signing of Kerry Wood in Cleveland and the huge trade of J.J. Putz, we need to look at how this impacts them for 2009 fantasy baseball, don’t we? (It’s rhetorical.)

Kerry Wood – In my offseason look at 2009 fantasy closers, I labelled Kerry Wood a Donkey-corn. That hasn’t changed with him signing a deal with the Indians. There I placed him 20th on the 2009 closer list. Now, I’d move him up to about 15th. He was lower more or less because of his uncertainty about where he would sign.  Now that he landed somewhere that needs a closer like an old man needs soup.  Wood, we’re good.

J.J. Putz – We’re not as good. Um, dooode just lost all his value in one full swoop. Oh well, I doubt any of youse have drafted yet, so it’s better to know now then lose him midseason.  I’d own Putz in NL-Only leagues that utilize middle relievers and, really, all NL-Only leagues should utilize middle relievers. As Houdini once may have said, “This Putz makes a good handcuff.”

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu! Holy schnikeys, he reemerges with fantasy value!  Anyone who has read this site for an extended time knows I have it a bit for The Big FraGu. He lands in Seattle after this three-way trade. This could be exactly what he needs to make him fantasy relevant in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. Now he’s absolutely draftable in AL-Only leagues. In fact, I’d go as far as to call him a 2009 fantasy sleeper. He could go 20/15 and be a tremendous asset in deep leagues. Can you tell I’m really psyched about The Big FraGu? Yeah, I don’t hide my enthusiasm very well.

Brandon Morrow/Aaron Heilman – This trade just gets more and more spectacular from a 2009 fantasy veiwpoint. Towards the end of last season, Morrow was stretched out so he could be a starter. So, of course in 2009, he becomes a closer.  There’s some speculation that Heilman could be the closer and Morrow the starter, but I think that’s foolish for the Mariners to do. Then again, the Mariners have been foolish before. I think the smart move is to make Heilman happy and make him a starter like he so desperately wants.  While Morrow will realize he can get big bucks by being a closer even if it’s not as challenging (and, yes, I am saying it’s easier to be a closer than a starter). Morrow has succeeded before in the closing role while Heilman has failed in that role. This is really a no-brainer. Anyone who disagrees, have ‘em come talk to me.  I’d call Morrow a Donkey-corn and place him about 17th on the list of 2009 fantasy closers.

K-Rod wasn’t the top closer according to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and he’s not the number one closer according to our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections — it’s called Point Shares, ya’ll! The title of top closer goes to Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon, respectively. And I respectively agree. As Madonna tries to figure out if the K stands for Kabbalah and if she’s with the right Rod, let’s see what this signing does for K-Rod’s 2009 fantasy value and others:

Francisco Rodriguez – When I did my look at offseason 2009 closers, I placed Nathan, Papelbon, Lidge and Mo-Ri in front of K-Rod. Nothing change. I said K-Rod was going to be the closer for the Mets back in August. Everyone said he was going to be the Mets closer back in August. (I think I was one day before everyone else, but who’s counting — besides me.) Francisco Rodriguez is still a $12 Salad and, if anything, he’s even more overrated now by people who think a closer in New York is more valuable simply because of geography.

Scot Shields – No one seems to think he’s going to be the 2009 closer of the Angels, but if Scioscia goes with his longtime setup man first it wouldn’t surprise me that much.

Jose Arrendondo – In that same Closer Look post, Arredondo was ranked 17th, since he’s obviously a Donkey-corn. If he goes into the season as the clear cut closer of the Angels then put another band-aid on your cheek Nelly cause Arrendondo’s about to grimey in overratedness.

Before we look at all the potential closers going into the 2009 season, let me say this, “None of these schmohawks may be a closer by the time we get to May.” Sure, barring injury, some are sure things like Nathan, Lidge and Papelbon. I’m just saying that it’s very early to be looking at 2009 closers, but some people need to get their 2009 keepers in, so I figured I’d do a quick closer look. Anyway, here’s all of the guys that could be a closer in 2009:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, FA

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
7. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
8. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton)
10. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
11. Jonathan Broxton/Takashi Saito, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
12. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (Jeff Samardzija…. If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
13. Brian Fuentes, FA
14. Brian Wilson, SAN (Jeremy Affeldt)
15. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Roy Corcoran)
17. Jose Arrendondo/Scot Shields, LAA
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
20. Kerry Wood, FA
21. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
22. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
24. David Riske, MIL (Carlos Villanueva)
25. Manny Corpas/Huston Street, COL (Taylor Buchholz)
26. Trevor Hoffman, FA
27. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Joe Nelson)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Fernando Rodney, DET (Joel Zumaya, Kyle Farnsworth)
30. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
31. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
32. C.J. Wilson/Frank Francisco, TEX
33. Jensen Lewis/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
34. Eddie Kunz/Luis Ayala/The Arepa Lady, NYM

With the top 20 closers, I have now recapped yo’ ass on top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen, top 20 outfielders for 2008,the 21 – 40 outfielders for 2008, top 20 starters and the top 40 starters. I ranked twenty closers back in January of 2008, then I updated that list about four times before the season started. My point, closers are constantly changing and, if you’ve read Razzball at all, you know I’m one of the biggest save vultures around. I rarely pay for saves. That’s not to say I don’t end up with decent closers. I had Lidge, Soria and Valverde on some teams. They all had great closer seasons, but they weren’t top ranked closers coming into the season. Closers are saves. SAGNOF. Period. That’s it. Once you wrap your head around the fact that Joe Nathan and Salomon Torres are the same player, the better off you’ll be. Rudy and I disagree on this point. Whatever. We agree on plenty other things, including his fantasy baseball player rater. (Instructions on use of the player rater.) Anyway, here’s the top 20 Closers for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Mariano Rivera – I said 40 saves and he got 39. Now bow! Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/2.75/1.10/70, 40 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-5/1.40/.67/77, 39 Saves

2. Francisco Rodriguez – I said he’d get 45 saves and he got 62. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  6-2/3.00/1.25/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.24/1.29/77, 62 Save

3. Joakim Soria – Just because I didn’t rank him doesn’t mean he wasn’t on any of my teams or that I didn’t like him. I just saw no reason to rank him in the top twenty back in January of 2008. In March, when I did one of my closer posts, I did move him into the top 20. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-3/1.60/.86/66, 42 Saves

4. Jonathan Papelbon – If I were the type to grab a top closer, and I’m not, I would take Papelbon. Not for his dancing. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  5-0/1.10/.75/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/2.34/.95/77, 41 Saves

5. Joe Nathan – Lots consider this dooode the number one closer. I could see that. I’ve only had him on one team ever, when he was a middle reliever on the Giants. I’ll probably have him on another team in a couple of years when the shine is off of him. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  6-1/1.90/1.00/80, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  1-2/1.33/.90/74, 39 Saves

6. Jose Valverde – I didn’t trust him much coming into the year, but many didn’t so I still ended up with him and he proved to be fine. I won’t trust him much going into 2009 either, but at certain prices he’s a buy. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/4.00/1.25/65, 30 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.38/1.18/83, 44 Saves

7. Brad Lidge – I liked him coming into the year as a solid bounce back candidate. (Notice how I said bounce back and not Comeback. WTF? How does he win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Kerry Wood? Yeah, I can see that. Cantu? That makes sense. Lidge? In 2007, he had a 3.36 ERA. Do the reporters who vote for this shizz even bother to look at stats? Let me guess, Lidge blew a save in the postseason in 2005 so he’s the Comeback Player this year. Moving on before I stick my head in the oven.) Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  3-3/3.25/1.20/90, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-0/1.95/1.23/92, 41 Saves

8. Kerry Wood – I couldn’t have been any more down on Wood coming into the season, but I still had him on three different teams. Am I not practicing what I’m preaching? Nah, fool. A) Wood’s stock was way down according to everyone so I got him at a discounted rate. B) There is no B, don’t you hate that? (Note: Back in January of 2008, I ranked the “Cubs Closer” 20th and my preseason predictions were Nice stats/Boatload of saves.) Final Numbers:  5-4/3.26/1.09/84, 34 Saves

9. Brian Fuentes – With closers you have to know your strengths, my strength is I grab fill-in closers before most people. This helps when you don’t draft any “good” ones. With that said, I had Fuentes on almost all of my teams. (Note: I predicted this for Corpas, 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.) Corpas Ranked #18, Final Numbers:  1-5/2.73/1.10/82, 30 Saves

10. Francisco Cordero – His WHIP says he got a bit lucky. 78 Ks says he was doing something right. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  2-5/3.50/1.20/65, 35 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/3.33/1.41/78, 34 Saves

11. Kevin Gregg – Here’s one closer I actually steered clear of because of his walks in 2007. He ended up being fine this year, but he wouldn’t be this high if it wasn’t for some vulture wins. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-8/3.41/1.28/58, 29 Saves

12. Bobby Jenks – Not a big fan of Jenks so I didn’t have him on any teams. As they taught me to say in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, his lack of strikeouts are a concern. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/3.00/1.00/65, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  3-1/3.63/1.10/38, 30 Saves

13. Carlos Marmol – This hombre’s gonna be great. ¿Ya que si es verdad? I ain’t no Mentirosa. Final Numbers:  2-4/2.68/0.93/114, 7 Saves

14. Billy Wagner – I warned you four months before the season that Wagner’s end was near. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  2-3/3.75/1.35/70, 25 Saves, Final Numbers:  0-1/2.30/0.89/52, 27 Saves

15. B.J. Ryan – He went unranked in January because he hadn’t even thrown from 40 feet yet. Get over yourself. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-4/2.95/1.28/58, 32 Saves

16. Salomon Torres – I will simply point out that I didn’t rank Gagne either. Put that in your sucky pipe and smoke it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/3.49/1.35/51, 28 saves

17. Brian Wilson – Wilson ended up notching way more saves than I thought he would and he was also way more erratic in his ratios. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/2.50/1.05/65, 20 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/4.62/1.44/67, 41 saves

18. Trevor Hoffman – My grandpappy told me about this time that Trevor Hoffman struckout “Castor Oil” Boyd to win the Governor’s Trophy and single-handedly stop The Crimean War. Our grandparents sure knew who to close games. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  3-2/3.50/1.15/40, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.77/1.04/46, 30 saves

19. Grant Balfour – Good for Balfour for ranking this high and but let’s not forget all of the other middle relievers who forfeited their spot so Balfour could have some glamour — Shields, Wheeler, Dotel, Okajima, Qualls and “Waking” Joey Devine. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-2/1.54/.89/82, 4 Saves

20. J.P. Howell – If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son make the top 20 closer list. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.22/1.13/92, 3 Saves