Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pittsburgh Pirates: Surprisingly, Juan Cruz toed the rubber in the ninth to earn the save for the Pirates Tuesday night. Initially there was no word as to the why. Eventually, we heard that Joel Hanrahan tweaked his hamstring on the last pitch of his outing against the Giants on Sunday. Hanrahan says he’s not going to be able to go until Friday or Saturday, at which point he could be put on the DL retroactively until Sunday. Cruz could find his way to a few save chances in the interim and there’s certainly potential for this hamstring issue to linger. For a nano second, circa 2008, Cruz was one of the better relievers in baseball but injuries and walks got him down in a major way. So far this season, Cruz is flashing a great K-rate and has limited his walks. If he can do that, he’ll remain a solid reliever. Evan Meek came in for the hold in the seventh so there appears to be no short term plans for the Pirates to use him to save.

San Francisco Giants: For some time, it appeared Santiago Casilla would be the closer in Brian Wilson’s absence and he got the first chance and didn’t disappoint, with Sergio Romo getting the hold. Casilla is a fine reliever who walks a few too many batters to be an incredibly comfortable ninth inning guy. Still, he has the job and it’s possible the Giants prefer to have Romo used in higher leverage spots throughout the game. I’m not rushing to get Casilla in a trade or if there are any FAAB bids/waivers still remaining though. For one reason, there’s Heath Hembree who was drafted and groomed to replace Wilson. Hembree has posted impressive K-rates in the minors, but has paired them with somewhat high walk rates. Still he has far better stuff than Casilla and isn’t the future always now? If you’re scoring at home: Casilla has decent stuff, but walks a lot of guys, the Giants have a closer prospect waiting in the wings, and Sergio Romo is really good .

Houston Astros: No matter what they say, it’s a matter of when, not if, Brett Myers is traded. As attrition and injuries mount, many teams will need one of those newfangled reliever-starter hybrids. He won’t command much, but any sort of prospect/money back is worth dealing him for. In Myers’ first save of the year, Wilton Lopez pitched most of the eighth. Lopez is off to a fine start, not walking a guy in 7.1 IPs, and is a great long term handcuff. He has exhibited solid control (1.69 BB/9 rate in the majors) and K-numbers. He’ll be good for a 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 50 K’s the rest of the way.

Minnesota Twins: Presumptive closer, Matt Capps, hasn’t looked great. Meanwhile, “closer-in-waiting” Glen Perkins was shut down due to a forearm issue. He had an MRI on Monday which showed only inflammation. Reportedly, his forearm feels better and he could rejoin the Twins any day now. That said, his absence has given Capps a little rope and we can’t be sure Perkins will remain healthy. He is still a handcuff in leagues where every single save matters, but in shallower leagues, it’s best scouting for saves elsewhere.

Chicago White Sox: Grey is all about Hector Santiago losing his job, and quickly. With anymore outings like Santiago’s last save opportunity (he allowed two homers and a walk), Grey could be right. That said, Santiago has a fine WHIP (1.25), has recorded six K’s in four IPs, and has only walked one batter. In addition, Robin Ventura had this to say: “But you know, the way I look at it is how he bounces back. I have confidence in taking him right back out there and letting him do it (Tuesday) night.” Ventura has staked one of his first “major” decisions on Santiago and will be slow to give up on the experiment. Meanwhile, Jesse Crain has pitched a ton in the eighth inning lately, with Addison Reed and Matt Thornton working the seventh. If you’re handcuffing, Crain looks like the next in line.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Javy Guerra finally blew his first save of the season, he’s now 5/6 in save opportunities. He has walked three batters in 6.1 IPs while striking out 6. With so few innings, it’s hard to judge whether he is taking a step forward in K’s, taking a step back in control or both. I’ve never believed in the underlying skills and know Kenley Jansen is the far better pitcher. What’s nice about Jansen is that he doesn’t have to get saves to be valuable in most any format, so rostering him for the long haul works. If you desperately need saves, it’s going to take a few more disastrous outings from Guerra to get Jansen close to closing, so you might need to look elsewhere. And, even if there are some disastrous outings, if he keeps saving at an 80% clip, I doubt he’ll lose the job.

Miami Marlins: Two times the finally in Thursday’s review, as Heath Bell finally recorded a save. His ERA sits at 9.00 and he has a 2.75 WHIP, but he has a one in the save column. He’ll have to be horrendous for about a month before a phantom DL stint removes him from the closer role.

Washington Nationals: I’ve nothing to add to Grey’s Buffy Fan Fiction: “HanK-Rod has a zero ERA and strikes out everyone; Lidge puts runners on every game and it gets harrowing!”

Surprisingly, the dust has settled a few places and some of the riskier closers (Frank Francisco, Jim Johnson, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney (wtf?), Javy Guerra, etc.) have gotten off to good starts. That said, there’s still a dash of turmoil in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Toronto and Washington.

Boston Red Sox - Mark Melancon is out of the picture and Alfredo Aceves looked great in his last save outing, so there’s a chance this situation is settling after a tumultuous start. That said, in leagues where every save and handcuff is owned, Vicente Padilla is worth a look. He hasn’t made many relief appearances in his career, but has been excellent so far in 2012, posting a 4.00 K:BB rate. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a similar turn as former teammate Brett Myers did in 2007 on his way to 21 saves. In addition, I’m continuing to lessen my stance that Daniel Bard ultimately ends up with more saves. Bard looked damn good in his first start of the year on Tuesday. If he can throw 160 innings of that quality, it’s the right move.

 Chicago Cubs – I firmly believe that Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein want to extract as much value from Carlos Marmol as possible and that only can happen if he’s the closer. Consequently, unless he becomes utterly dreadful, I don’t expect him to lose his role. Furthermore, I’m not worried about his production. He should be right at the top of the closer heap in K’s and get plenty of saves. His ratios will do some damage, but that’s about it. If you’re in a deep league and feel like speculating, just go right past Kerry Wood and look to Rafael Dolis, a popular dark horse. Dolis, just 24, was signed eight years ago out of the Dominican Republic. Hi career began as a starter, but he transitioned to relieving last season at AA. In 72.2 IPs, he had a 1.37 K:BB rate, 3.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Dolis hasn’t seemed to master his control but does have potential to be a high leverage arm in the pen. That said, unless Marmol is traded, his time probably isn’t 2012, but keep your eye on him in dynasty leagues.

Chicago White Sox – So far, so good for Hector Santiago, as he is perfect in save chances. While he allowed a HR in his last inning of work, he had one of those cushy gooshy 3-run save opportunities.  Robin Ventura made his first real decision giving the ball to Santiago and Santiago’s retro John Franco screwball, so he should have a long leash. He walked a ton of guys as a starter in AA last year (the highest level he’s pitched at in the minors), but, if he can harness his control, he can repeat Sergio Santos’s 2012. The door for speculating on Matt Thornton and Addison Reed will be nailed shut for the time being with two more save conversions.

Detroit Tigers – While he has recorded one save, Jose Valverde has been anything but automatic this season. He has given up four hits and a walk in         2.2 innings of work. Octavio Dotel is suddenly a very real handcuff in deep leagues. Nevertheless, Dotel is a flawed reliever as well and shouldn’t really face many left-handed batters. Valverde should have a long leash, but if you’re speculating, it’s best to get in on the ground floor.

Miami Marlins - Two appearances, no saves, two runs and a loss for Heath Bell this year. While it’s early, Bell has been on a downward trajectory with him losing 1.3 MPHs off his fastball last season. Given his contract and home ballpark, he should have enough of a cushion to maintain the closer role. However, if you can get equal value in a trade or “downgrade” to someone like Huston Street (while upgrading elsewhere), I’d certainly think about it.

Toronto Blue Jays -  While Sergio Santos has labored on the mound lately (as Grey noted a few days ago), General Manager Alex Anthopoulos gave him a vote of confidence and evoked some small sample size rhetoric in a TV spot during the Jays game on Tuesday against the Red Sox. Santos was brought in during the offseason to be the closer and Anthopoulos seems to be a process driven guy, so Santos should have a reasonably long leash. There will be some hick-ups throughout the year as he faces stiffer competition in the AL East (competition that takes pitches and is willing to watch a called third strike in late innings), but Santos has good stuff. For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays let Ricky Romero finish off the win against the Red Sox on Wednesday (of course he was straight dealing). Romero walked the first two batters he faced and Santos was told to get warm in the bullpen. Adrian Gonzalez hit a long fly off Romero that allowed Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia (the tying runs) to tag and advance to second and third. That was Romero’s last pitch and Santos came in. Santos struck out Kevin Youkilis and got a weak grounder from David Ortiz.

Washington Nationals – It’s a shame that good news for Dr. James Andrews means bad news (initially) for fantasy baseball managers. Drew Storen has been the latest to visit Dr. Andrews after experiencing pain in his throwing elbow after a simulated game. This could spell a much longer disabled list trip than originally thought. Brad Lidge, who has been darn effective since his horrific 2009, likely has the pole position for the closing role. However, manager Davey Johnson will continue to switch off between Lidge and Henry Rodriguez until there is clarity on how long Storen will be out. It’s possible the hottest hand at the time will claim the saves. Lidge has the track record, eau du veteran and has pitched the best in a small smattering of innings. Own both, if you can.

Grey covered the Andrew Bailey and Frank Francisco situations nicely on Tuesday. However, I had already started putting information together, so I’ll leave you with a few lines from my Francisco write-up:

While Francisco is not expected to miss anytime, we’re talking about a relatively fragile relief pitcher here and a Mets organization that has a hard enough time keeping healthy players off the disabled list. Jon Rauch is next in line and is a good speculative add. He’s also a member of the fragile Freddy all-stars so take a look at Bobby Parnell in most dynasty/deep league and in super deep ones Ramon Ramirez deserves a look.

As for the Red Sox, Bailey, when healthy, will be the closer. Of course, it could be four months before he’s fully healthy and how often he remains healthy is really up in the air. Alfredo Aceves is an intriguing arm in the pen; Grey just went over his Aceves fantasy this morning.

The other option, Mark Melancon, needs to prove he can hang. Some suggest he doesn’t have the raw stuff to be anything other than an average set-up guy in the American League East. Melancon deserves an add and should get at least 10 saves, but I wouldn’t count on more and wouldn’t mind trading him quickly. In reality, Bard could likely end up with the most saves for the Red Sox this season.

Tampa Bay Rays: With Grey around, do you even need me? He clearly was on top of the Kyle Farnsworth situation yesterday. As he noted, the elbow pain is no joke and the timetable for Farnsworth’s recovery is a great unknown. The Rays have built a dynamic and cheap bullpen recently and Manager Joe Maddon has shown the willingness to mix and match with interim closers and committee.

That said, Joel Peralta is clearly at the top of the heap and the “reliever to own.” Peralta throws a fastball-splitter-curve at hitters and has had considerable success lately. He will likely post an ERA around 3.35 a solid 1.17 WHIP and 57 K’s. Fernando Rodney is also lurking, but he’s barely a league average reliever. I’m willing to bet he hurts your ratios en route to 6 saves, i.e., it’s not worth it.

One of the more intriguing arms in the pen is J.P. Howell who disappeared from baseball consciousness after missing all of 2010 and most of 2011. However, a healthy Howell is a dynamo on the mound, capable of a 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 65 K’s. While he’s a lefty, Jake McGee (another devilish southpaw) is also in the pen, solving the “you can’t use your one lefty as a closer” conundrum. Speaking of McGee, last year’s under-the-radar saves option, he has dominated the minors putting up K:BB rates worth salivating over. Look for him to post similar numbers to Howell (3.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 63 K’s), but is probably behind Howell in the saves line.

Lastly, there is recently rotation banished Wade Davis. Davis has the stuff and repertoire that should play as a high leverage reliever.  In most leagues, I’d just avoid this situation altogether as the likelihood of any one reliever posting 15+ saves seems small. However, for deeper leagues where every save matters, I’d rank them (in terms of most 2012 saves): Peralta, Farnsworth, Howell, McGee, Davis, Rodney. Keep an eye on Davis in keeper/dynasty leagues as he could very well end up the closer of the immediate future.

Jim Johnson: Johnson has a 6.75 spring ERA in just eight innings. He has allowed seven hits, seven runs and six earned runs, while walking six and striking out five. For the last week, it’s been speculated that Johnson has lost velocity. Over the weekend, MASN Sports reported that Johnson wasn’t concerned about any dip in velocity. Then, according to Rotowire, Johnson topped out at 95 MPH on Saturday (which just happened to be his first back-to-back appearance of the Spring). Johnson took Sunday off and pitched again Monday, sitting at 90-92 MPHs. While velocity is always important, movement is vital to Johnson and his need to get ground balls. It’ll be important to watch his first few outings to see if he is getting the dip on his fastball. If he doesn’t net a ton of GBs out of the gate, he could be in trouble. In addition, it might not matter, as the Orioles have a relatively poor infield defense which hampers Johnson’s upside. At the moment, there isn’t an overwhelming need to go out and add Matt Lindstrom or Kevin Gregg, but if Johnson struggles to keep the ball on the ground, feel free to kick the tires on those relievers in deeper leagues.

Chicago White Sox: For shizzles and giggles or to get back at everyone who snickered at him when he got beat down by Nolan Ryan, Robin Ventura refuses to name his closer to start the year. Clearly how Ventura uses his pen early in the season will determine the roles, so pay careful attention to who slots in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. While that’s obvious, it is important to note what situations Ventura faces in high leverage relief roles, i.e. if lefties are coming up in a tight game in the 8th and Venture doesn’t go to Matt Thornton, he’s the likely closer. If he does go to Thornton, Addison Reed is likely the closer. I do believe Thornton will start the year as closer, but he didn’t thrive in the role last year (albeit in limited opportunities) and he could also be trade bait for the potentially rebuilding club. Thornton and Reed should end up with similar amounts of saves, maybe in the high teens. In super deep leagues, Jesse Crain is a person of interest because Thornton failed last year and Reed is unproven. At the moment, though, Crain is an unspectacular middle relief guy who is a couple of steps from closing. The dark horse in the pen is rookie Hector Santiago. While Santiago pitched well in Spring Training and there’s “buzz” surrounding him, he has just 83 innings above A+ and he wasn’t exactly dominant (7.99 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 rate). His stuff in the low minors played particularly well, but the 24-year-old might be a season away from being an impact major league reliever.

Kansas City Royals: No doubt trying to outdo young upstart Ventura, Ned Yost is similarly throwing a tantrum and refusing to name his closer. At the start of the season, Yost is likely to go with a more committee approach as he finds the right lever to pull in high leverage situations. In addition, Jonathan Broxton is likely unable to pitch in back-to-back games. If he could be used like this, I’d bet on him being the closer already. As it stands, Greg Holland will get options at the beginning of the year and, with his skill set, could lock the role down. I do believe Broxton will end up with more saves and be the closer the minute he’s able to go back-to-back, however I’d like to own both to hedge my bets. Certainly I’d rather either of these guys than Melancon, Aceves and any of the Rays pen options.

Oakland Athletics: While Grant Balfour is(was) the closer on Opening Day, keep tabs on Fautino de los Santos. Balfour could easily be trade bait and de los Santos can really strike guys out. Of course, he’s got a lot of Carlos Marmol in him and has always walked a ton of guys. If de los Santos can get off to a good start in the seventh/eighth innings and limits his walks, he’s a great guy to stash in deep leagues.

Cleveland Indians: Filed in the obvious department: keep tabs on the health of Chris Perez. In addition, look at early velocity and swinging strike reports and, more broadly, his K:BB rate, which was abysmal last year. If he continues 2011’s trends, set your sights on flamethrower Vinnie Pestano.

Washington Nationals: Another elbow issue to a reliever has put the Nationals bullpen in disarray. While it appeared Brad Lidge or Tyler Clippard had the stuff and inside track to saves, flame throwing Henry Rodriguez has emerged as a leading candidate. Rodriguez, who had a phenomenal Spring, has long posted dominant K/9 rates but has also walked the farm and then some. It’s impossible to know if Rodriguez has the “closer mentality” and, with his inability to find the plate at times, he’ll walk a tightrope, so he’s likely not worth a major investment. He could strike out 80 guys this year with a 3.50 ERA, but his WHIP (1.37) will be untenable at times. Storen is expected back in April; don’t waste a ton of FAAB or moves on this situation. At the end of the day, Storen will have the most saves, followed by Lidge and then  Rodriguez.

Mariano Rivera: No need to be worried here. On Sunday, Rivera allowed a run and two hits, the first time he allowed an earned run in Spring Training since 2008. Good lord, for all of the above upheaval, marvel at Rivera.

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

The baseball season is only a few short weeks away, which means were oh-so-close to closer controversy, out-of-nowhere fantasy stars and disbelief that anyone could have been suckered into drafting Brandon Lyon again. It also means it’s time for our first Bottom of the 9th of the season.

We’ll get to a few sleeper candidates for saves in a future article, but now, let’s find some value in the safer options at the position. Sure, you can dip into the waiver wire all season trying to find saves, but wouldn’t it be easier to pay a reasonable price for what could be elite ninth inning options?

Sergio Santos, Blue Jays. This guy absolutely killed it in his first chance closing, racking up 30 saves for the White Sox while posting a 3.55 ERA that smelled a little better than the numbers indicate. Chicago decided to cash out and nab a pretty good prospect from the Blue Jays, who are obviously going to want to recoup some of the trade price they paid by sticking with Santos in the closer role through thick and thin. And when you have a guy that struck out over 13 batters per nine innings while keeping his walk rate south of Carlos Marmol territory, there’s gonna be plenty of thick. Currently the 16th closer off the board according to ADP measured at Mock Draft Central and 184 overall at Fleaflicker, Santos should have no problem find his way into the top 10 at his position by season’s end.

Huston Street, Padres. What’s not to like with Street? He maintained a nice K rate near 9.0 per nine innings while walking just nine batters all year. I tell you that and you’re wondering how much time Street missed last year, but that came from a standard workload of 58.1 innings; he was that much in control. Now he takes his talents to San Diego, which is excellent for a guy that had a 14.5% HR/FB rate last year. The fact that he’s the 21st reliever off the board n Mock Draft Central can be blamed on the possibility of him getting re-cast as a set-up man on a contender at the trade deadline, but there’s nothing stopping you from ringing three months of top-shelf value out of Street before dealing him on July 1, is there?

Rafael Betancourt, Rockies. Slotting in right behind Street on MDC is Betancourt, and there’s simply no reason he should be taken as the 22nd reliever off the board. He pitched 62.1 innings in each of his last two seasons, walking just eight guys in each while averaging 81 strikeouts. Do the math; he averaged — averaged! — higher than 10.0 K/BB over the last two years. Not K/9, K/BB. Only Koji Uehara (another sleeper alert?) managed that level of fantastic over the past two years. Amongst pitchers that pitched both in 2010 and 2011, Betancourt equaled Craig Kimbrel’s 1.77 SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA, which is just what it sounds like it is) as the best in baseball. How many more ways do you need me to tell you that this guy is elite? He’s locked in as the ninth inning guy in Colorado and could be a top-five closer in 2012.

Frank Francisco, Mets. Francisco’s ADP on Mock Draft Central is so low that it’s not even worth mentioning, as it ranks him behind RPs like Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Melancon, Fernando Salas and Leo Nunez, a guy that technically doesn’t even exist anymore. Francisco was yanked around a bit in Toronto, which is causing his low sticker price, but he wasn’t all that bad. He’s always been a high K guy that keeps walks in check. In seven years, 331 games and 334 innings, Francisco has a 9.9 K/9 rate, and no one wants him? He just 32 years old and doesn’t have to worry about losing his job this year — Jon Rauch proved he isn’t a reliable option in the role. Expect Frank Frank to stay the closer all year, rack up 35 saves or so, strike out a ton of batters, and make owners that passed on him for Chris Perez, Matt Thornton and the non-closers listed above look pretty foolish.

Let’s stop there and leave you pondering the sleeper picks to come. If your draft is around the corner, grab a couple of the picks above and consider yourself ahead of the game at RP.