Fantasy Baseball Advice

In our ongoing schmohawk series where I breakdown overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball, I’ve gone into depth on some of these guys.  I decided to also take a lookie-loo at Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Pick board and grab ten players that I thought were overrated from their top 81.  If MDC could talk, I think even it would agree that some of these draft picks make no sense.  If you click on a player’s name, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these schmohawks.  Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – ADP — 13.  Last year, his homers were bonkers for him.  He’s a catcher with a bad back.  Leave him to the autodrafters.

Mark Reynolds – ADP — 20.  Are people seriously drafting a guy that breaks the strikeout record every year in the 2nd round?  Rhetorical!

Victor Martinez – ADP — 22.  At 1st base, this makes no sense.  At catcher, it makes less sense.

Jason Bay – ADP — 25.  I’m hoping Reyes will come back soon, but right now Bay’s hitting behind Wright, Lousy Castillo and Angel Pagan and in front of Daniel Murphy.  Bay anywhere near 25 is fjord’ing crazy.

Pablo Sandoval – ADP — 39.  I’m guessing drafters reach for Sandoval due to The Great 3rd Basemen Drought of 2010.  My Chase Headley projections are 70/20/85/.290/10, Sandoval’s projections are 80/24/95/.315/4.  Cust kayin’.

Aaron Hill – ADP — 50.  Last year’s overrated guys (namely Hamilton) were causing people to send death threats to the site.  This year Aaron Hill could knock up your 17-year-old sister and you wouldn’t care that much.  Not sure why, but this year there’s a pretty boring group of overrated guys.  Should give people more reason to ignore them.  Alas…

Javier Vazquez – ADP — 59.  Unless Keith Law has been doing hundreds of mock drafts, this ADP is baffling.  Last time he pitched in NY, he had a 4.91 ERA.  That was pre-Jetstream.

Manny Ramirez – ADP — 62.  When he was younger, his insouciance (Word of the Day!) was cute and didn’t mess with his game.  Yeah, insouciance doesn’t age well.

Aramis Ramirez – ADP — 61.  I have him 30 spots lower on my top 100.  I thought about dropping him another 10 or so spots when I thought about how he has no speed and hasn’t hit over 30 homers since 2006.

Billy Butler – ADP — 81.  November Grey thought about doing a Butler sleeper post, but now I think Butler’s in sleeper sell territory. He doesn’t bring that much to the table. Unless we’re talking about the dinner table.

I was talking to Woody Harrelson about what’s happening with the Blue Jays from a fantasy perspective.  He said, “I like their 2nd baseman.  Aaron um…um….”  I said, “I know his name.  It’s surely…”  He said, “Hemp!” I said “Hill.”  Fail.  Cousin Oliver steps up to the schmohawk dunk tank and down goes Aaron Hill.  His ADP is 46.  I have him at 59.  That’s pretty close.  Close like asking for Fluff and getting Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme.  You settle for Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme, I mourn you.  I’m a Native American in a 70′s commercial watching you litter.  To get to an ADP of 46, there’s people drafting him as high as 25.  This better not be any of youse.  Don’t make me come back there!   I have Hill’s line at 85/24/80/.280/5; James has 78/20/76/.283/5; CHONE has 78/21/75/.282/4; Marcel has 76/21/75/.281/6; Point Shares has him ranked at 110 and just around average, earning -.03 points.  I’m actually the most optimistic and I’m telling you he’s overrated.  Crimey a river!  In a perfect world, Aaron Hill can hit 36 homers.  Last year was a perfect world, Costner.  His HR/FB ratio last year was 14.9%.  The three years before that were 2.4%, 8.6% and 3.6%.  You don’t have to have a BS degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston to see 14.9% is a bit out of whack.  And by bit, I mean a lot.  So 25 homers seems like Hill’s peak.  What about his speed?

He doesn’t really have any.  On Bill James’s Speed Score where the average is 5.0, Hill’s at 3.2.  Behind such tug boats as Mark Teixeira, Glass Chipper and Scott Rolen.  All right, but you can’t just ignore those 108 RBIs he had last year.  Maybe you can.  He hit behind a career year from Marco Scutaro who had a .379 OBP in 680 plate appearances.  Speaking of which, Aaron Hill had the most plate appearances in the major leagues last year.  Number one.  As in, no one was in front of him number one.  You have to take that many plate appearances with a grain of salt.  In 2010, Hill will be hitting behind who?  John Buck?  Jose Bautista?  Yeah, there goes those RBIs.  People are drafting him around the same time as Justin Morneau (30/100/.290) and Curtis Granderson (30/20)… Okay, different positions.  But how are people drafting him at the same time as Cano’s 90/27/100/.315/5?  Take a 2nd baseman later (Ian Stewart, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson) instead of reaching for Aaron Hill.  He’s overrated.

I didn’t even get a chance to write the Billy Butler fantasy sleeper post before I had to bring out the “This Guy vs That Guy” post.  Geez, people are really overhyping early this year, huh?  (More of a question to myself, you don’t have to answer.)  What did Butler do last year that has him screaming up the rankings on so many draft sheets?  Let’s see, he hit 21 homers, .301 average, 78 runs, 93 RBIs and 1 steal.  In 608 at-bats.  That doesn’t sound all that wonderful.  There has to be another reason.  Oh, it’s because he hit 51 doubles.  People are assuming at least 10 of those 51 doubles have to turn to homers.  After all, he has size C moobs and silver dollar nipples.  Oh, wait.  It’s because he hit 6 homers in September and 13 homers in the 2nd half.  See, he was already showing that burgeoning power.  Yeah, those are reasonable, uh, reasons.  But he’s being asked to do too much.

Billy Butler is a line drive machine.  When he’s not hitting line drives, he’s hitting ground balls.  He’s much closer to Robinson Cano or, to get historical on ya, Edgar Martinez.  Edgar Martinez only hit above 30 homers once in his career, Cano has yet to reach it.  Maybe it’s the portly body that has people seeing Butler as a surefire power breakout, but I don’t agree.  If you don’t believe me because of trust issues, CHONE and Bill James both project Butler to hit 17 homers.  Then there’s the Royals.  How many Runs do you think Butler’s getting in that lineup?  80?  85?  Yeah, maybe.  Then there’s the RBIs.  See lack of Runs.  Looking at maybe 100.  So 85/25/100/.300.  That’s not terrible, but those numbers are leaning down rather up.  What I mean is, he’s between 75-85/20-25/85-100/.300.  So if he ends up at 75/22/85/.300, that’s a corner man, not a 1st baseman.  If he had steals to make up for his shortcomings, it would be different.  But Billy Butler couldn’t steal a base if they were only 15 feet apart and he grew 13 more feet.  You know who does have some speed?

Robot Jones.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, Jones had a 4.4 last year.  Butler was at 2.0. (You ever think if Butler had any speed he might have had 7 or so triples instead of some of those doubles?)  Last year in 358 plate appearances, Jones stole 10 bases.  In 672 PAs, Butler stole 1 and I’m assuming it was a hit and run and no one covered 2nd.  Jones’s fly ball rate was 41.3% last year; Butler was 34.6%.  Jones can hit 30 homers a lot easier than Butler.  I’m calling Butler and Jones a push on Runs and RBIs.  So that leaves average.  As we all know, average is fickle, but Butler will easily beat Jones.  At least .300 to .270.  However, Butler is being drafted around 70 spots before Jones.  Yes, Garrett Jones is much riskier.  If Butler were at 120 and Jones 140, I’d take Butler every time.  There’s a chance with Jones that he flames out and looks like Ludwick circa 2009.  But the difference of 70 spots in ADP has me in Jones’s corner.  He’s much better value.  Oh, and Billy Butler hits about .450 every Spring Training, which led him to be dubbed Mr. Grapefruit, so his ADP isn’t going down any time soon.

Dogging Aramis Ramirez as someone who’s overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball seems odd.  He was hurt last year and that was coming off two years when he was just a’ight.  And just a’ight is several levels removed from a’ight a’ight.  Just a’ight is not even the same as just a’ight.  On the scale of a’ight, there’s a’ight a’ight, a’ight, pretty a’ight, just a’ight.  Not to mention, we’re talking about a’ight here.  We’re not talking about him on the scale of totes crazy.  He hasn’t been totes crazy since 2006.  Back then, I could see throwing on some Aramis.  That shizz was Spanish Fly.  In 2006, he threw up a line of 93/38/119/.291/2.  Nice, next time I see 2005 I’ll tell him to keep an eye out for that.  This year I have Aramis down for 75/25/95/.290.  Adrian Beltre looks at those numbers and shrugs.  Don’t trust me and my mustache?  Bill James has him down for 76/26/97/.292; CHONE has 67/22/84/.289; Marcel has 59/18/72/.290.  Points Shares has him at 122th, earning -.26 points.  Sweet, throw him in a pot with some bell peppers and cumin and you have crap.

I know what a lot of you are thinking.  What the eff does totes crazy mean? Actually, I thought you were thinking Aramis will beat my projections this year because it’s a contract year.  Ah, yes.  The contract year theory.  For those not in the know, the contract year theory is when someone’s production peaks the year they are about to enter free agency, allowing them to cash in.  The first known example of the contract year theory was when Noah built the ark before signing a lifetime contract that produced nothing except odd texts about animal fornication.  It didn’t catch on in baseball for many years later.  In 1897, the Cleveland Spiders management gave a $50 raise to Sparky Anklebiter after a massive 3 HR season only to see him drop to 0 HRs the next year.  I wish someone would flip the script on players who play well in their contract year.  I’d love to hear a negotiation go something like this, “For you to be so much better in your contract year, it means you were sandbagging it for the previous three years.  Yeah, we want someone who sandbags it.  We’re going to sign Jack Wilson instead.  He throws well.”  Okay, now for actual examples of contract year players from last year:  Beltre (8 homers and crizzap), Rick Ankiel (lots of strikeouts, ugly bout with an outfield wall), Erik Bedard (usual injury shizz), Khalil Greene (ended up in the psyche ward), Rich Harden (see Bedard), Brett Myers (bunch of hits off him, some thrown at his wife) and Xavier Nady (season ended April 14th).  Yay, contract year theory.  That shizz is foolproof.

Aramis Ramirez is currently being drafted on average around 60th.  That’s about 3 rounds too early.  He’s overrated.  Grey out.

Guess what, fellas and two girl readers?  It ain’t last year no more — that’s a double negative and ain’t ain’t a word.  Eat it, English teachers!  So it’s with much regret that I must tell you you’re not going to get value for Mark Reynolds in 2010 if you have to draft him where he’s being drafted.  Don’t draft your 2010 fantasy baseball team thinking you’re going to right all the wrongs you made last year.  It doesn’t work that way.  You’ll just be compounding your errors.  Anyone who’s ever been in a casino knows what I’m talking about.  You watch someone make a fortune at blackjack, craps, keno, whatever and you think to yourself, “Ah, man, I should’ve sat down.”  Then you do sit down and lose.  That’s you and the gamble is Mark Reynolds.  You missed the boat.  Don’t try and make up for past mistakes.

There’s something else at work here.  Something no one wants to talk about.  Fantasy baseball ‘perts are afraid of you.  You, the reader.  Everywhere you look people are telling you Reynolds is a top third baseman.  They’re telling you he’s a top third baseman because they screwed up last year and they don’t want to screw up again.  They think there will be a mutiny if you don’t see rankings that make sense compared to everyone else.  Finally, they underestimate you.  They think you only look at last year’s stats and you want the next year’s rankings to compare favorably to them.  It’s why everyone (but me) was telling you to draft Josh Hamilton last year.  No one wanted to rock the Josh Hamilton boat.  (Actually, I like Hamilton this year, but that’s for a another post.) There’s so much “What has he done for me lately?” in fantasy baseball that you can exploit it if you’re aware of it.  People have great years all the time, doesn’t mean they will have a great year again the following year.

There was a reason I told you to draft Reynolds last year and it had as much to do with where he was being drafted as what he could do.  Mark Reynolds is not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or really even a 4th rounder.  He’s definitely being overrated right now for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Is anyone that is drafting him early in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts actually looking at his numbers?  He struckout 223 times last year.  He hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April?  You gonna be happy about drafting him in the first four rounds of 2010?  Doode’s a bad luck year away from hitting .225.  What if he only steals 15 bases and hits 34 homers while batting .250?  Sounds terrific…for a guy you draft in the 7th round.  Not the 3rd round.  Stop the madness.  Please.