David Ortiz is old for players of his girth.  Take Mo Vaughn, for instance. (I take Mo Vaughn everywhere and he always finds his way home — oofa!)  Big Mo was knocking down Cask ‘n Flagon Sammy A’s with the best of them until he no longer was.  Look at Mo Vaughn’s most similar by age. (BTW, do you ever find yourself losing like 3 hours of a day in the Baseball-Reference site?  Yeah, me too.)

Before there was Big Papi there was Big Mo…. It’s sad, but true.  Mo Vaughn took a pretty major dump after the age of 31.  Ortiz’s age 30 year was 54/119/.332 then, at age 31, he went 35/117/.332.  Last year at age 32, Ortiz went 23/89/.264.  This year he’s going to be a Latin 33.  Mo Vaughn’s career end was rushed along by injuries.  Um, Ortiz has been healthy?  In Spring Training, Ortiz has already been complaining of shoulder soreness.  Then you throw in Ortiz has no position eligibility…. Ugh, people.  Seriously.  What do you want from me?  My last Hot Pocket?  Just do me a favor and avoid David Ortiz in your 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

No More Crack Smoking – This stage in the Josh Hamilton hype cycle is more or less self-explanatory.  Josh Hamilton stops smoking crack.  As he continues up the curve, he gets near 100 RBIs by the 2008 ASB, he stays healthy and he helps a giraffe give birth.  The last one is still unverified.

2009 Drafts – The peak of the hype.  Everyone goes caca-cuckoo over Josh Hamilton in the 2009 preseason.  One woman from Lubbock, Texas calls in to the Vatican saying there’s an image of Josh Hamilton on her toast.  All of this leads to Josh Hamilton being severely overrated and he’s drafted in the 1st round of some 2009 drafts.

Falls back to Earth, Hits the DL – Sometime during the 2009 season Josh Hamilton fails to live up to the hype and his owners wonder where it all went wrong.  Then he gets hurt.

He’s a solid OF, but not Jimmy Jesus – At the end of the season, fantasy baseball owners look at Josh Hamilton through slightly less than rosy glasses and come to the conclusion that he’s good, just not a 1st or even 2nd rounder.  He’s Jason Bay’s numbers with a feel-good story attached to his name.

At this point, the only advantage to owning the Project Donkey would be to strap him to a large chain and use his noggin to knock down the Excaliber in Vegas.  The 2009 fantasy schmohawk posts have been used thus far for overrated players.  Honestly, Hafner’s barely rated, let alone overrated.  But I threw the schmohawk tag on him because of how badly he Pronk’d me last year.  Not to mention, he hasn’t done well since 2006.  You’re going to clog up your Utility spot with someone who MIGHT hit 25/90/.275.  (Caps are for emphasis and those that might be reading this from across the room.)  We’re talking about someone who hasn’t hit well in two seasons.  His 2007 was crizz-ap and he was healthy.  What, you need me to stand behind you while you’re drafting and grumble under my breath while you hover the cursor over Hafner?  Cause I will do it.  Now everyone loves a good nickname as much as the next guy.  So I understand you like the nickname Pronk, but c’mon, man, don’t draft Travis Hafner.  If you do, you’ll give me an aneurysm.  You want that on your conscience?

IowaCubs: “Why is Cliff Lee falling to the 9th round”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “b/c he sucks.”
RedSUKSballs: “Yeah… totally gonna suck this year”
IowaCubs: “Why does he suck?”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “b/c he can’t repeat, okay jerk?”
Scuffed Balls: “I only drafted him cuz it was on auto.”
Brett’s Illegal KY’d Bat: “I heard he had a gd year bc of yer mom.”
Twisted Testicles: “LOL!!!!!!!!”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “LOL… GO AHEAD AND DRAFT HIM JERK”
IowaCubs: “Can’t he repeat like 90% of last year and still be ok?”
Scuffed Balls: “LOL”
Pie’s Mixed Nuts: “lol… you should be in my league…lol”
Brett’s Illegal KY’d Bat: “LOL”
RedSUCKballs: “that’s funny”

So if this exchange of trying not to be too crude and not quite that clever names is any indication, people are avoiding Cliff Lee, but they’re not that sure why.  So what can we expect of Cliff Lee in 2009 for fantasy baseball?

First off, a big Wassup to everyone that skipped ahead and didn’t read that other nonsense.  You didn’t miss much, just some superlatives and shizz.  Last year, Cliff Lee won 22 games in 23 quality starts.  Let’s just say, that is a pretty significantly lucky number of Wins for the amount of QS’s Lee had.  He could easily win 15 games in 2009.  I huge difference in value.

Cliff Lee’s K/9 ratio last year was 6.85, a solid number, but it’s not going to produce K numbers that you want from a fantasy ace.  It’s a ratio that places him 49th last year for starters just ahead of Mussina.  Last year, Lee had 170 Ks, that number works.  But in 2009 if he doesn’t pitch 223.1 innings, he’s not going to come close to 170 Ks.  And 223.1 innings is a lot of innings.  I wouldn’t bet on more than 200 innings.

Then what really kills Cliff Lee for 2009 is his fly balls didn’t go out last year.  In 2008, Cliff Lee’s home runs per fly balls ratio was 5.1%.  To give you a rough idea of how low this is, Peavy, the guy who calls Petco home, has a career HR/FB of 9.7.  In other words, Lee will give up more home runs in 2009.  The good thing is Lee’s career HR/FB is 8.9%.  The other good thing is Lee has great control.  His K/BB is superb, especially considering his K/9.  But, wait, this is supposed to be about how Cliff Lee is overrated.  Yes, he is and will be, but he’s not completely unusable.  You just need to keep expectations in check.  Cliff Lee is a 15 win, 3.75 ERA pitcher, which makes him a lot closer to Derek Lowe with a spotty track record than Tim Lincecum.

9) Josh Hamilton -  Why is he in the 1st round?  Cause he kicked crack?  You people need to chillax.

17) B.J. Upton – I like a BJ as much as the next guy, but a low-priced one is even nicer.  Upton’s a third round pick.

27) Dustin Pedroia – Is spunkiness now a category?

34) Jason Bay – I think this pick means people aren’t sure what to make of a lot of other guys.  Your inner monologue, “Oh, shoot, I don’t know if this Carlos Quentin guy is for real… Screw it, I’m grabbing J-Bay.”

43) Russell Martin – Position scarcity-schmarcity.  Last year, Martin was outdone by Lastings Milledge and Garrett Atkins in a terrible year.

53) Magglio Ordonez – This is another J-Bay type pick.  People are scared of Nate McLouth so they’re going with the reliable and yawnstipating Mags.

65) Cliff Lee – Buh-buh-buh– But he won the Cy Young!

68) Garrett Atkins – If you follow his home run regression from year to year, he’s due for 17 in 2009.  And he lost Holliday.  Yay.

75) Chone Figgins – This pick will shore up your sixth place finish.  Congratulations.

Wrong.  What are you people doing?  Seriously.  I see Pedroia being drafted as early as the 2nd round in some drafts. Why not just make him the first pick overall and be done with it?  What are you people honestly hoping for in 2009 from Pedroia?  A 40/40 season?  Unless dooode is shooting up some Bondsteriodian clear, he’s not going to come close to fulfilling your expectations.  He’s a 15/15 guy with some upside for more.  But there’s downside on those numbers too.  You really want a 12/12 2nd baseman in the 2nd round?  Why not just draft Yunel with your first pick and Dusty second?  Sure, position scarcity makes Pedroia a wee bit more valuable, but not as valuable as I’ve seen him being drafted.  Then there’s his 118 RBIs last year.  He hit .307 with RISP, not completely clutch.  In 2007, he hit .263 with RISP and drove in 50.  Could he drive in only 50 again?  Yup.  Or maybe he drives in 60.  Still not 2nd round (or 3rd round) value.  His HR/fly balls were double in 2008 than they were in 2007, he had only 50 walks in over 700 plate appearances and he cured rubella.  Listen, he’s about the fourth best 2nd baseman going into 2009.  He’s not a 2nd (or even 3rd) round pick.  Chillax, people.  You would’ve got laid eventually, with or without Dustin Pedroia‘s help.

Carlos Lee.  Wait, huh?  Weren’t you just talking about Josh Hamilton? I was, random italicized voice.  Chillax.  All I meant was, Carlos Lee has been doing for years what you can reasonably expect from Josh Hamilton in 2009.  When was the last time you considered Carlos Lee in the 1st round?  Never?  Yeah, me neither.  This is not to say Josh Hamilton is going to suck a giant bottle of Mediocre in 2009.  He’s a great talent.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 35/110/.300/10, i.e., Carlos Lee’s numbers.  Also, don’t forget Hamilton wore down in the 2nd half last year and he’s injury-prone.  While some will be drafting Josh Hamilton in the 1st round of 2009 drafts, I’ll be shooting up on some Carlos Lee-infused smack at the end of the 2nd round.  Suck on that pipe, Pookie!